http://hotair.com/archives/2013/09/25/house-republicans-to-avoid-monday-shutdown-with-one-week-continuing-resolution/
http://www.businessinsider.com/analyst-a-genuine-crisis-is-looming-for-the-markets-due-to-the-debt-ceiling-2013-9
Today might be the day that debt ceiling concerns — which have been most accutely felt in Washington, but which have been mostly ignored by Wall Street — actually start breaking their way through into the minds of market participants.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303983904579091652200060412.html?mod=WSJ_Election_LEFTTopStories
House Republicans to avoid Monday shutdown with one-week continuing resolution?
POSTED AT 6:41 PM ON SEPTEMBER 25, 2013 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
Government by stopgap, via Robert Costa:
Multiple GOP senators tell me House Republicans will likely pass a short-term continuing resolution to fund the government into early October. “It’d be a short-term, clean CR,” as one describes the legislation. “It’d fund the government for one week or so and keep us talking,” says another senator. “I think that’s where they’re moving right now.”
Remember, under the current Senate schedule, Boehner won’t have anything from the Senate to work with until Sunday night at the earliest. Cruz is reportedly under intense pressure from Senate Republicans not to object if McConnell tries to yield back some debate time going forward in the name of letting the House act sooner. But even if that happens, there’s still not enough time left for Reid and Boehner to strike a deal on O-Care. So they’re going to punt for a week while they keep talking. Which makes me wonder: If House conservatives agree to some lesser deal on O-Care — say, Vitter’s plan to force Congress and staff to buy insurance on the exchanges without federal subsidies — would Cruz and Lee accept that or will they continue to (futilely) oppose anything short of defunding? I’m assuming they will, if only in the interest of mending fences at that point, but who knows? If Cruz is the new “president of conservative America,” as I saw written somewhere today, then maybe he needs to vote no on a deal all the way down.
Roll Call is reporting that Boehner et al. are also weighing a one-year delay to ObamaCare’s individual mandate as a fallback option once the “defund” bill is dead. Politico reported that this morning too. Senate Democrats won’t go for that, though, or at least not without a lot of pressure, which makes me think maybe Boehner will pursue a longer stopgap CR of two or three weeks to buy time to apply pressure before the next shutdown deadline rolls around. If you want to sell the public on the eminently reasonable idea that it’s unfair for business to get a break from ObamaCare’s crapola regulations for a year but not individual taxpayers, it’d be nice to have more than a few days to do it.
Exit question: Jim Geraghty wonders if Cruz’s goal all along wasn’t defunding O-Care, which was impossible given the make-up of the Senate, but rather “cementing the public’s perception that Obamacare is entirely a Democrat-run production, and that fixing the problems it creates will require the election of the Republican opposition.” Is the public going to come away with that impression, though, after multiple Republicans vote against Cruz on Reid’s clean CR this weekend? Former party nominee John McCain is delivering rebuttals to Cruz on the Senate floor, for cripes sake. If “Republicans are the answer” is the message Cruz wants to push, having a big internal Republican war between RINOs and true conservatives is a bad way to do it. I think his message is that tea partiers, specifically, are the answer — but if enough tea partiers end up demoralized by the failure of the defunding effort that they stay home next year to protest sending the RINOs back to the House, you could end up with Democrats doing better than they otherwise might have. Ironic.
Update: Remember that NBC story about Rand Paul privately arguing against the Cruz “defund” strategy? Here’s an interesting clip via MFP of Paul not squarely denying that when asked about it by Glenn Beck. The takeaway here isn’t that there’s some sort of rift between Cruz and Paul; there’s no reason to believe that given Paul’s support for Cruz last night. The takeaway is that even Paul seems skittish about the political fallout for the GOP from a shutdown.
http://www.businessinsider.com/analyst-a-genuine-crisis-is-looming-for-the-markets-due-to-the-debt-ceiling-2013-9
Today might be the day that debt ceiling concerns — which have been most accutely felt in Washington, but which have been mostly ignored by Wall Street — actually start breaking their way through into the minds of market participants.
In a note to clients, DC-based research firm Potomac Research Group writes: "A Genuine Crisis Looms for the Markets on Debt Ceiling."
They write:
MEANWHILE, A MUCH BIGGER CRISIS LOOMS: Treasury Secretary Jack Lew had a chilling message yesterday: the government may have only $50 billion in cash on hand by mid-October; inflows and outflows sometimes exceed that amount every day. This is a looming train wreck; a government shut-down, on the other hand, wouldn't affect much that's essential, and the public would hardly notice a brief shut-down.
THE DEFAULT THREAT: It's still a very low probability, but that probability is not zero. As we wrote on Monday, if a default is imminent, we think President Obama would raise the debt ceiling by executive fiat. But the chaos at Treasury leading up to such a crisis could result in some very scary headlines regarding Social Security checks, paying the troops, paying government vendors, etc. This could become a headwind for the economy, as the FOMC undoubtedly concluded last week.
THE DEFAULT THREAT: It's still a very low probability, but that probability is not zero. As we wrote on Monday, if a default is imminent, we think President Obama would raise the debt ceiling by executive fiat. But the chaos at Treasury leading up to such a crisis could result in some very scary headlines regarding Social Security checks, paying the troops, paying government vendors, etc. This could become a headwind for the economy, as the FOMC undoubtedly concluded last week.
They conclude that for this crisis to end, there might need to be a severe market reaction. Only then, perhaps, will someone blink.
You can nread here for our rundown of the argument that that the market is being too ignorant about the risk of the debt ceiling on markets.
The gist is basically this: The White House has said it won't negotiate on the issue. The GOP has no appetite for a clean raise. And the growing Democratic left will hem in The White House, preventing any possible deal. There's just no basis for a deal, nor is there one being worked out in the background.
House GOP may attach Obamacare delay to CR
The House Republican leadership is seriously considering attaching a one-year delay of Obamacare’s individual mandate to the Senate bill to avert a government shutdown, according to senior GOP aides.
If House Republicans decide to go this route, it would all but provoke a government shutdown, since Senate Democrats might not even schedule a vote on a bill that includes that provision, Senate leadership staffers say. Even if the Senate schedules a vote, there might not be time to move the legislation through the slow-moving chamber.
The House Republican leadership is planning its next move as it becomes abundantly clear that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s gambit to defund Obamacare will fall short. The federal government is set to shut down Tuesday unless a new funding bill is enacted, and the Senate might not even send a bill to the House until Sunday — leaving a hot potato on Speaker John Boehner’s lap shortly before a government shutdown. The Senate bill will fund the government through Nov. 15.
Boehner and his leadership team have been preparing options to present to House Republicans when they return on Wednesday from a brief recess. The process, leadership aides say, will be driven by members of the House Republican Conference. Their first closed party meeting is Thursday.
Several different tactics are under discussion within the top levels of House GOP leadership, and the path Republicans choose depends on several factors — chiefly the mood of rank-and-file Republicans when they return to Washington, and when the House gets the continuing resolution back from the Senate.
For example, if there isn’t time to send a funding bill back to the Senate without shutting down the government, House Republicans might simply pass the Senate’s version of the legislation and reserve their attacks on Obamacare for future pieces of legislation like a debt ceiling increase. House Republicans begin their quest to lift the debt limit this week, with a similar delay of the health care law attached. This comes after the House passed a CR completely defunding Obamacare.
“We’ll deal with whatever the Senate passes when they pass it,” said Michael Steel, a Boehner spokesman. “There’s no point in speculating before that.”
House Republicans see tremendous upside in attempting to delay the individual mandate. First, they think it is easy to communicate the policy to voters. President Barack Obama has already delayed the employer mandate — the provision in the health care bill that requires businesses with more than 50 employees to provide health care for their workers. House Republicans ask: Why not institute that same delay for individuals?
Delaying the individual mandate also poses a difficult political problem for some House Democrats, especially those from red states. In July, when similar legislation came up in the House, 22 Democrats voted with 229 Republicans to pass the bill. One Republican voted against that bill: Rep. Morgan Griffith of Virginia.
Of course, the political fallout of a shutdown is scary business for House Republicans. Boehner has privately warned his fellow leaders that a government shutdown is perilous for Republicans. Most Americans who disapprove of the health care law think its unwise to shut down the government to stop Obamacare’s implementation.
There are other legislative add-ons under consideration by House GOP leaders, as well. There has been discussion by House Republicans of attaching the so-called conscience clause to the CR — language that would allow employers to ignore a federal requirement that they cover birth control as part of their health insurance packages.
House Republicans are also considering including language that would prevent the federal government from making the employer contribution for the health care of members of Congress and their staff. This would add thousands of dollars to the insurance tab of Capitol Hill staffers and lawmakers. A third option is repealing the medical device tax, a revenue stream businesses loathe but that is off the radar of everyday Americans.
Much is in flux this week, as a divided Washington tries to avert the first government shutdown since 1996.
In a bid to help House Republicans respond to the Democratic Senate, some GOP senators have been discussing accelerating the consideration of the CR so the House has more time to weigh legislative options to keep the government open. This would fly in the face of some conservative senators who want to drag out the process.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303983904579091652200060412.html?mod=WSJ_Election_LEFTTopStories
Clock Ticks as Senate Begins Budget Work
Conflict Between Two Chambers Expected as Oct. 1 Deadline Nears
WASHINGTON—Senate leaders will start work Monday on a bill to fund federal agencies into the new fiscal year, but it remains unclear whether Congress can finish the job in time to avoid a partial government shutdown.
Congress is locked in a partisan dispute over the terms for funding the government for the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1, little more than a week away. Voting along party lines, the GOP-led House on Friday passed a bill that extends funding at current levels through mid-December.
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But that bill also stripped money from the new federal health law, a provision that the Democratic-led Senate will now move to eliminate.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) is expected to take steps Monday that likely would lead to an important procedural vote on Wednesday to open debate on the funding bill, according to a Senate Democratic aide.
Some of the Senate's most conservative Republicans have vowed to try to block Democrats from passing any version of the budget bill that restores the funding for the health law.
"If the majority is going to run the minority over with a train, [the minority has] the ability to stop them," Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) said Sunday on Fox.
Mr. Cruz, along with GOP Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, plans to try to block the Senate from taking up the bill in the Wednesday vote.
Democrats will need support from 60 senators to consider the bill. There are 54 Democrats and allied senators, but some Republicans are expected to join Democrats in voting to take up the legislation.
A handful of Senate Republicans say some of their colleagues are pursuing a futile goal, given Democrats' control of the Senate and the logistical challenges of halting the law. "It's a great attempt to raise the issue of some of the weaknesses and the problems with Obamacare, but it's not a tactic that we can actually carry out and be successful," Sen. Tom Coburn (R., Okla.) said Sunday on CBS.
Republican strategy "ought to be based on what the real world is, and we do not have the political power to do this," he said.
Votes to amend the funding bill will require only a simple majority, and so Democrats are expected to have little trouble removing the House's provision to strip money from the health law. Similarly, only a simple majority of senators is needed for final passage of the bill.
Still, Republicans could force the Senate to spend significant time on debate at each stage of the process, potentially pushing a final vote to as late as Sunday, a Senate Democratic aide said. That is just two days before the government would begin partially shutting down. When the bill returns to the House, Republicans may alter it again, raising the prospect of a frenzied set of volleys between the two chambers.
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D., Mo.) said Sunday that Republicans were ignoring Mr. Obama's re-election message in an attempt to score political points. "I don't think, in America, we should throw tantrums when we lose elections and threaten to shut down the government and refuse to pay the bills," she said on Fox.
Lawmakers are debating next year's budget at the same time they are considering the terms for raising the nation's debt ceiling, which the Treasury says must occur by mid-October. House Republicans have said they will unveil a proposal this week to raise the borrowing authority enough to last for one year, but link it to a one-year postponement of the health law's implementation.
The GOP plan is expected to include other GOP legislative proposals in the debt-ceiling bill, including a broad framework for writing a tax-overhaul bill and a requirement that the president approve construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.
Democrats said they would not accept those conditions as part of a deal to raising the borrowing limit.
President Barack Obama has repeatedly said that he won't negotiate with Congress over the debt ceiling, including in a Friday night phone conversation with House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio). The top House Republican told the president that the two chambers of Congress would try to hash out a deal, according to the lawmaker's staff.
So far, no negotiations between the top House and Senate lawmakers have been scheduled, according to aides. Mr. Boehner hopes the House and Senate will each pass their own legislation, then work to reconcile their differences, a House GOP aide said Sunday.
Oh my: McConnell, Cornyn won’t join Cruz and Lee in filibustering House’s CR to defund ObamaCare
POSTED AT 6:01 PM ON SEPTEMBER 23, 2013 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
It’s a testament to how confusing the Cruz/Lee tactics in the Senate have become that when I tweeted out the McConnell news a few minutes ago, someone tweeted back that they couldn’t tell if that news was good or bad.
If you’re with Cruz and Lee, the answer is: Bad. And surprising to me.
An aide to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tells THE WEEKLY STANDARD that the Kentucky senator will vote to allow an up-or-down vote in the Senate on the House bill to defund Obamacare.“Senator McConnell supports the House Republicans’ bill and will not vote to block it, since it defunds Obamacare and funds the government without increasing spending by a penny,” the McConnell aide writes in an email. “He will also vote against any amendment that attempts to add Obamacare funding back into the House Republicans’ bill. If and when the Majority Leader goes down that path, Washington Democrats will have to decide—without hiding behind a procedural vote—whether or not to split with their leadership and join Republicans and their constituents in opposing the re-insertion of Obamacare funding into the House-passed bill.”
Everyone understand what’s going on here? It’d be easier to click the first link up top and read that rather than have me run through it here, but to put it simply, the only way the “defund” caucus can stop Reid from amending the House bill to strip out the provision that defunds ObamaCare is to filibuster the House bill when Reid brings it to the floor to open the debate. That’s counterintuitive because Cruz and Lee support the House bill and normally you only filibuster stuff from the other party that you hate. In this case, though, due to Senate rules, once the bill passes the initial cloture vote and comes to the floor, Democrats can remove the defunding stuff via a simple majority vote of 51 senators. There are 54 Democrats so that’s a relatively easy lift (although not so easy for red-state Dems like Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu who’ll have to swallow this crap sandwich by voting yes a year before they face reelection).
By filibustering the bill before it comes to the floor, though, a mere 41 Republicans can block Reid from amending the bill to take the defunding provisions out, which would paralyze the chamber and probably lead to a shutdown. What the plan is after that, I’m not sure; Reid’s not scared of a shutdown, since Democrats feel sure that Republicans will end up more damaged from it than they will. If anything, Pryor and Landrieu will probably be relieved that they’re spared an up-or-down vote on defunding by a successful filibuster. And even if the government does shut down, ObamaCare will still go into effect because the money’s already been appropriated as part of the original O-Care law. Bottom line, though: To have any chance of stopping a “clean” Democratic CR in the Senate, you need 41 Republicans willing to filibuster. And now, here’s the minority leader saying he won’t be part of that.
His chief deputy won’t be part of it either:
A well-connected Senate Republican source says John Cornyn, the second-ranking GOP lawmaker in the Senate, will not go along with a plan advocated by colleagues Ted Cruz and Mike Lee to filibuster a House-passed bill that would fund the federal government but defund Obamacare.The source says Cornyn will support a bill that defunds Obamacare, but Cornyn will not go along with a plan to filibuster that same bill. “Cornyn will not vote with Cruz on this,” the source says. “It doesn’t make any sense. He [Cruz] has lost the messaging war on this. He has lost the strategy. We’re not going to go along with this.”Cornyn opposes Obamacare. He supports defunding Obamacare. But he does not support the filibuster plan. Added the source: “Ted Cruz can go out there and explain how he’s going to block a bill that defunds Obamacare, but we’re not going to.”
The surprise, obviously, is that you’ve got two Republicans who are up for reelection next year whom tea partiers already disdain deciding to pull the plug on Ted Cruz’s procedural play on his very first move. Why they would do that when there are probably already six other Senate Republicans willing to cross the aisle and give Reid the 60 votes he needs to beat Cruz’s filibuster, I don’t know. All it does is increase the odds of them being primaried. Per the boldfaced line, though, they’re counting on voters to be deeply confused about exactly what’s going on here; when they’re called out for not voting with Ted, they can say with a straight face that all they did was vote for the House bill that defunds ObamaCare. They could also note, correctly, that by refusing to filibuster they made life more difficult for vulnerable Democrats like Pryor, Landrieu, Begich, and Hagan by forcing them to cast an up-or-down vote on stripping out the defunding provisions. That might be worth something to grassroots righties who are eager to reclaim the Senate.
And of course the extent of the backlash depends on some degree to whether Cruz decides to go after them hard for this publicly. My guess is he won’t. For one thing, he’s always said that it’s the House, not the Senate, that has the real leverage in forcing Democrats to deal on ObamaCare, and he’s right about that. Whether or not defunding succeeds depends upon how firm Boehner and his caucus are, not McConnell and his. Beyond that, Cruz really can’t lose at this point no matter what does or doesn’t happen in the Senate. He’s a tea-party hero for pushing an “if you will it, you can do it” approach to stopping O-Care; if McConnell and Cornyn thwart him, he can just cite that as evidence that less steely Republicans simply don’t have the will — and even better, he won’t have to risk political damage to himself by leading a shutdown-causing filibuster in the Senate. That’s McConnell’s real goal here, I think: He’s going to dump this back in Boehner’s lap by allowing Reid to pass his “clean” CR, and then when House conservatives demand that Boehner shut down the government, Boehner can say that the media will kill them over it by contrasting their approach with the more “reasonable, compromising” Republicans of the Senate like McConnell. Everyone wins (except House conservatives), to the extent that finding a way out of this now can be said to constitute “winning.”
Update: A commenter asked why I’m surprised that two establishmentarians like McConnell and Cornyn would vote this way. Because, quite simply, I expected them to pander to tea partiers by voting with Cruz, secure in the knowledge that other Republicans who don’t have to face reelection next year like Coburn, McCain, Collins, Kirk, etc, would vote with Reid to defeat the filibuster anyway. McConnell could have had his cake and eaten it too. Instead he’s anti-filibuster. Odd.
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