Hurriyet exposes the dirty truth as to why US military aid hasn't been cancelled yet , why an obvious coup cannot be called a coup ......
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/can-obama-sustain-us-policy-on-egypt.aspx?PageID=238&NID=52703&NewsCatID=409
Too late because the massacre in Cairo as a result of a security forces attack on civilian protesters had taken place in the early hours of Aug. 14 and almost every other country on earth had given some sort of response about it.
Too little, because many people think that the U.S. could use its military aid leverage on General Abdel Fettah Sisi who had toppled the Egyptian President through a coup d’etat and could stop at least the brutal use of force on civilians by police and military.
But no... Noting that it would be difficult for the U.S. to continue its relations with Egypt as long as civilians were killed on the streets, Obama thought it would be enough to cancel a joint military exercise with Egypt.
Obama’s reaction, failing short of stopping, at least suspending U.S. military aid program to Egypt was not enough for the rising Egypt awareness in the world politics. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan was among the first and perhaps the most strong in condemning the July the 3rd coup anyway and had called the UN Security Council to convene for Egypt prior to Obama’s speech. Turkey is not a member of the UN Security Council now, but UK, France and Australia called the Council for an emergency meeting the same June 15 afternoon.
The outcome was not something to be proud of, expressing sorrow because of violence. But Argentinean Ambassador to UN, Maria Cristina Perceval as the term president of the Council did not hide her disappointment and expressed her country’s condemnation of the “coup d’etat” in Egypt, asking the interim government to stop using force on civilians immediately. The same evening the U.S. State Department announced that the military aid agreement was to be revised depending on developments there and the U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel reportedly called general Sisi to say that they’d like to continue the military relationship if they behaved to the protesters properly. The incidents on August 16 showed that the military rulers of Egypt did not care much.
Yet, on July 16, Holland suspended its relations with Egypt’s military-backed government and following a series of talks between the leaders of UK, France and Germany, the European Union decided to have an emergency meeting on Egypt.
Despite the reports that it was Russia and China who had softened the UN reaction against Egypt on the bases on “non-interference” principal (probably thinking of Chechnia and Uigur examples of their own) the pressure mounts on the U.S. administration to put more pressure on Cairo; the reason being the military aid leverage.
But decades long U.S. military aid to Egypt, which has been planned as more than $1.3 bln for 2013 and more than 80 percent of this money goes directly to the pockets ofAmerican defense companies; mainly to Lockheed-Martin, the producer of F-16 fighter jets and General Dynamics, the producer of M1A1 Abrams tanks. Plus, according to the Washington Post, there was $8.5 bln worth of military orders to U.S. companies from Egypt since 2008 but only $4.7 bln worth of them have been delivered.
So if Obama cancels the aid, the U.S. defense companies will be indebted to Egypt some $3.8 bln and penalties. If Obama calls the Egypt coup a coup, then he may have to face similar trouble in the Congress.
That is a major reason why Obama cannot use the military aid as leverage to pursueIsrael in order to stop more settlements and have peace with Palestinians. The amount, some $1bln more than the one to Egypt goes back to the pockets of a few Americancompanies (one can add Boeing and Raytheon on top of the ones in Egypt); that meansAmerican jobs for Obama, too. And when it comes to record breaking (a $60,5 bln deal in 2010) military sales to Saudi Arabia, to one of the most autocratic regimes on earth, it is possible to see that Obama, too has difficulties in executing his foreign policy independent of the military-industrial complex, as former U.S. President Ike Eisenhower once defined.
Can Obama sustain this policy in today’s world of mass communications, social media and awareness about human rights? The answer is “not so easy.”
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-03-160813.html
( Another analysis as to why the US has very very cards to play that trump Saudis , Kuwait and UAE cards on the table... )
Pharaoh al-Sisi sits tight
By M K Bhadrakumar
The highly opportunistic stance taken by the "big powers" who are veto-holding permanent members of the United Nations Security Council has prevented that august body from articulating an outright condemnation of the brutality with which the Egyptian military massacred more than 1,000 civilians in Cairo on Wednesday.
This must be counted as one of the most shameful moments that the UN Security Council has been put through in its sad history of over six decades. The fault lies entirely at the doorstep of the White House and the Kremlin.
Both Washington and Moscow have chosen to view the Egyptian developments largely through the geopolitical prism and their respective self-interests, singularly devoid of any human compassion or political morality. Their credentials to take to the high ground on the Middle East issues - Palestine problem or Syria or the Arab Spring - have now come under severe scrutiny.
The Security Council met in New York on Thursday in a closed-door session at the joint request of Britain, France and Australia and came up with the lowest-level response that the UN's most powerful body is capable of making on international issues with regard to the grave escalating crisis in Egypt.
Maria Cristina Perceval, the ambassador of Argentina, which holds the rotating post of the presidency of the Security Council, found herself in the awkward position of speaking to the press with cowardly words dictated by the big powers from behind the curtain:
Curiously, the UN itself has not minced words in condemning the massacre in Cairo. Secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon condemned the Egyptian junta in the "strongest terms". The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said in a statement in Geneva,
In comparison, US President Barack Obama has resorted to diplomatic tight-rope walking. He announced the cancellation of a planned military exercise with Egypt, but he still wouldn't cut off US aid - and he is still unwilling to call the "coup" by its real name; instead, he strove to convey his measured displeasure at the Egyptian military's brutal use of force against the protestors in Cairo. In a verbose statement, Obama said, inter alia,
It comes of a piece with his abysmal record on Egypt - doing little, doing it too late, and ending up sending mixed messages and thereby eroding even further the US's capacity (or willingness) to influence events. Canceling the US' military exercise with Egypt, which was scheduled for September, has become unavoidable in the prevailing anarchic conditions in Egypt and Obama has indulged in sophistry by claiming it as a deliberate political decision.
The core issue remains: how does he hope to meet the US objectives in Egypt by canceling the military exercise at a time when the junta has its hands full with other preoccupations anyway and "inter-operability" with the US armed forces is the last thing on its mind?
At any rate, the kind of tank-on-tank military exercise that the US holds with Egypt has little relevance to today's threat perceptions in the Middle East, which almost entirely emanate out of the exigencies of counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism. In sum, Obama opted for good optics by scuttling an inconsequential event.
On the contrary, if there is a moment to order a suspension of military aid to Egypt, this is it. It will be a strategic error on Obama's part not to suspend the aid - US$1.55 billion including $1.3 billion to the Egyptian military - and instead weaken the US credibility further when the junta has so openly disregarded repeated US calls on the generals to desist from causing bloodshed.
However, as things stand, there is little chance of Obama doing anything that would even remotely damage Washington's equations with the Egyptian generals. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel spoke to the Egyptian army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Thursday to convey that the recent violence might jeopardize US-Egyptian military cooperation but also assuring him that the Obama administration hoped to maintain its military relationship with Cairo.
The dilemma facing the Obama administration continues to be that it is under compulsion to appear to support democracy in Egypt and live up to its own rhetoric to be on the "right side of history" but on the other hand it is under even bigger compulsion to safeguard the US' strategic interests in Egypt, primarily in terms of the junta pursuing policies that serve Israel's security interests and preserving the 1979 peace treaty as well as continuing to provide privileged access to the Suez Canal for the US Navy that is critical at the operational level to the perpetuation of Washington's military dominance of the Middle East and its regional hegemony.
Complicated thought processes
Paradoxically, the Russian stance on Egypt almost entirely devolves upon exploiting the US's acute policy dilemma. Whereas Obama has at least opened his mouth to say something, the Kremlin maintains a stony silence and will only show its hand after Obama plays out of turn.
Ironically, the Egyptian Embassy in Moscow has said that Cairo counts on Russia's assistance in "this trying time, as it used to in the past" (before Anwar Sadat purged Egypt of Soviet experts and advisers). Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a telephone conversation with his Egyptian counterpart Nabil Fahmy on Thursday but the foreign ministry in Moscow did not divulge details except to say that the two diplomats discussed the "latest developments in Egypt".
What transpired at another level in Moscow could be a pointer to the Russian thinking and policy priorities as they continue to evolve at the moment - a telephone talk between Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian President's envoy for the Middle East and deputy foreign minister, and Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates, which was, interestingly, at the latter's instance.
An unidentified source in the Russian foreign ministry later claimed,
Conversely, it will be of immense interest to Moscow if the divergence of interests accentuates in the coming period between the US and its oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council allies over the ticklish issue of extending support to the military junta in Cairo. The point is, any such divergence will be, quintessentially speaking, over the future directions of the Arab Spring and in turn it is bound to cast shadows on the conflict in Syria, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been among the most ardent backers of the rebel fighters.
It is in Moscow's interests to keep lines of communication open to Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the Syrian developments at a time when the Western powers are more or less disengaging from any sort of significant military involvement in the conflict. Moscow will be pleasantly surprised that the developments in Egypt, which are of vital interest and core concern to the petrodollar oligarchies of the Persian Gulf region, find Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasingly on the same page.
All three find the Brotherhood to be a toxic substance in the body politic of the Middle East and all three find it abhorrent that political Islam has been gaining ascendancy as the life force of the new Middle East. Russia has proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a subversive organization.
Besides, Russia has happy memories of dealings with the officer corps of the Egyptian military in the Soviet era and will be inclined to see them as a "secular" bulwark against the deluge of "Islamism". It does not seem particularly perturbed about the possibility that into the void created by any retreat of the moderate Brotherhood in Egypt, the Salafists, who are the kindred souls of the forces it battles in the North Caucasus (and whom the Saudis nurture as instruments of regional policy in the Greater Middle East) might enter as the vanguard of "Islamism".
But what really counts today for Moscow is not the fate of Islamism, but geopolitics. Any alienation between the Pentagon and the Egyptian military can dramatically pitchfork Moscow as the mentor of the generals in command in Cairo. Egypt is the epicenter of Middle Eastern politics, and a revival of influence in Cairo can boost Russia's regional influence as a whole on a variety of fronts and holds the potential to project it as an arbiter of peace and stability.
The spin-off in terms of arms exports and other economic benefits is equally self-evident. Naturally, the Kremlin is keenly watching how Obama wriggles out of his Egyptian predicament.
From current trends, Moscow will be gratified to see that the US president is steadily failing to have any meaningful impact on the behavior of the Egyptian generals, who are convinced that they have an existential struggle in hand and who are not inclined to turn back mid-stream to accommodate the Brotherhood in an "inclusive" democracy.
The Egyptian generals will be pleased that US aid continues, but while American assistance is desirable, it is not an absolute pre-requisite of survival if it comes at an unacceptable political price. This is where benefactors such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, which have promised $12 billion financial support - and potentially, Russia, which is a major arms supplier - could come in handy for the Egyptian junta.
Suffice to say, after a gap of some 42 years, a window of opportunity is opening for Russia to stage a political comeback in the corridors of power in Cairo as a big-time player. It was on July 18, 1972, that then Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat summarily announced the expulsion of around 5,000 Soviet military advisors and 15,000 air force personnel in Egypt.
Having said that, Washington can be expected to do everything possible, no matter what it takes, to see that that the window on the Nile banks doesn't open enough for a bear to squeeze through, and indeed the US still has vast residual powers to read the riot act to erring generals and rowdyish Persian Gulf autocrats. In the present climate of US-Russia relations, the Obama administration is certainly not going to roll over and make space for Russia in the Middle East.
The stalemate at the UN Security Council on Thursday is a fairly accurate reflection of the absorbing battle of wits between the big powers vying for influence in Cairo. Of course, the winner is Sisi, the new pharaoh on the Nile - for the time being at least.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/16/2013 11:46 -0400
http://rt.com/news/egypt-milllions-protest-morsi-458/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-16/egypt-military-prepares-crush-islamist-day-rage
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/16/2013 08:20 -0400
http://rt.com/news/egypt-violence-un-protest-551/
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/can-obama-sustain-us-policy-on-egypt.aspx?PageID=238&NID=52703&NewsCatID=409
Can Obama sustain US policy on Egypt?
The statement of U.S. President Barack Obama on Egypt on Aug. 15 was too little and too late.
Too late because the massacre in Cairo as a result of a security forces attack on civilian protesters had taken place in the early hours of Aug. 14 and almost every other country on earth had given some sort of response about it.
Too little, because many people think that the U.S. could use its military aid leverage on General Abdel Fettah Sisi who had toppled the Egyptian President through a coup d’etat and could stop at least the brutal use of force on civilians by police and military.
But no... Noting that it would be difficult for the U.S. to continue its relations with Egypt as long as civilians were killed on the streets, Obama thought it would be enough to cancel a joint military exercise with Egypt.
Obama’s reaction, failing short of stopping, at least suspending U.S. military aid program to Egypt was not enough for the rising Egypt awareness in the world politics. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan was among the first and perhaps the most strong in condemning the July the 3rd coup anyway and had called the UN Security Council to convene for Egypt prior to Obama’s speech. Turkey is not a member of the UN Security Council now, but UK, France and Australia called the Council for an emergency meeting the same June 15 afternoon.
The outcome was not something to be proud of, expressing sorrow because of violence. But Argentinean Ambassador to UN, Maria Cristina Perceval as the term president of the Council did not hide her disappointment and expressed her country’s condemnation of the “coup d’etat” in Egypt, asking the interim government to stop using force on civilians immediately. The same evening the U.S. State Department announced that the military aid agreement was to be revised depending on developments there and the U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel reportedly called general Sisi to say that they’d like to continue the military relationship if they behaved to the protesters properly. The incidents on August 16 showed that the military rulers of Egypt did not care much.
Yet, on July 16, Holland suspended its relations with Egypt’s military-backed government and following a series of talks between the leaders of UK, France and Germany, the European Union decided to have an emergency meeting on Egypt.
Despite the reports that it was Russia and China who had softened the UN reaction against Egypt on the bases on “non-interference” principal (probably thinking of Chechnia and Uigur examples of their own) the pressure mounts on the U.S. administration to put more pressure on Cairo; the reason being the military aid leverage.
But decades long U.S. military aid to Egypt, which has been planned as more than $1.3 bln for 2013 and more than 80 percent of this money goes directly to the pockets ofAmerican defense companies; mainly to Lockheed-Martin, the producer of F-16 fighter jets and General Dynamics, the producer of M1A1 Abrams tanks. Plus, according to the Washington Post, there was $8.5 bln worth of military orders to U.S. companies from Egypt since 2008 but only $4.7 bln worth of them have been delivered.
So if Obama cancels the aid, the U.S. defense companies will be indebted to Egypt some $3.8 bln and penalties. If Obama calls the Egypt coup a coup, then he may have to face similar trouble in the Congress.
That is a major reason why Obama cannot use the military aid as leverage to pursueIsrael in order to stop more settlements and have peace with Palestinians. The amount, some $1bln more than the one to Egypt goes back to the pockets of a few Americancompanies (one can add Boeing and Raytheon on top of the ones in Egypt); that meansAmerican jobs for Obama, too. And when it comes to record breaking (a $60,5 bln deal in 2010) military sales to Saudi Arabia, to one of the most autocratic regimes on earth, it is possible to see that Obama, too has difficulties in executing his foreign policy independent of the military-industrial complex, as former U.S. President Ike Eisenhower once defined.
Can Obama sustain this policy in today’s world of mass communications, social media and awareness about human rights? The answer is “not so easy.”
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-03-160813.html
( Another analysis as to why the US has very very cards to play that trump Saudis , Kuwait and UAE cards on the table... )
Pharaoh al-Sisi sits tight
By M K Bhadrakumar
The highly opportunistic stance taken by the "big powers" who are veto-holding permanent members of the United Nations Security Council has prevented that august body from articulating an outright condemnation of the brutality with which the Egyptian military massacred more than 1,000 civilians in Cairo on Wednesday.
This must be counted as one of the most shameful moments that the UN Security Council has been put through in its sad history of over six decades. The fault lies entirely at the doorstep of the White House and the Kremlin.
Both Washington and Moscow have chosen to view the Egyptian developments largely through the geopolitical prism and their respective self-interests, singularly devoid of any human compassion or political morality. Their credentials to take to the high ground on the Middle East issues - Palestine problem or Syria or the Arab Spring - have now come under severe scrutiny.
The Security Council met in New York on Thursday in a closed-door session at the joint request of Britain, France and Australia and came up with the lowest-level response that the UN's most powerful body is capable of making on international issues with regard to the grave escalating crisis in Egypt.
Maria Cristina Perceval, the ambassador of Argentina, which holds the rotating post of the presidency of the Security Council, found herself in the awkward position of speaking to the press with cowardly words dictated by the big powers from behind the curtain:
Members first of all expressed their sympathy to the victims and regretted the loss of life. The view of council members is that it's important to end violence in Egypt, that the parties exercise maximum restraint. And there was a common desire on the need to stop violence and to advance national reconciliation.Perceval, however, had the last laugh by deftly distancing her country, which still bears the deep scars left behind by military dictatorships, from the Security Council's shameful stance by reiterating Argentina's unequivocal condemnation of "the coup d'etat" against president Mohamed Morsi and Wednesday's "brutal repression" against popular demonstrations that filled the streets of the main cities of Egypt: and urging the Egyptian junta to "totally and immediately cease the spiral of violence let loose in recent days against unarmed citizens".
Curiously, the UN itself has not minced words in condemning the massacre in Cairo. Secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon condemned the Egyptian junta in the "strongest terms". The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said in a statement in Geneva,
The number of people killed or injured, even according to the government's figures, point to an excessive, even extreme, use of force against demonstrators. There must be an independent, impartial, effective and credible investigation of the conduct of the security forces. Anyone found guilty of wrongdoing should be held to account.Doing little, too late
Egypt's security forces are bound by the rule of law and must act with full respect for human rights, including the rights to free speech and peaceful assembly.
In comparison, US President Barack Obama has resorted to diplomatic tight-rope walking. He announced the cancellation of a planned military exercise with Egypt, but he still wouldn't cut off US aid - and he is still unwilling to call the "coup" by its real name; instead, he strove to convey his measured displeasure at the Egyptian military's brutal use of force against the protestors in Cairo. In a verbose statement, Obama said, inter alia,
While Mohamed Morsi was elected president in a democratic election, his government was not inclusive and did not respect the views of all Egyptians. We know that many Egyptians, millions of Egyptians, perhaps even a majority of Egyptians were calling for a change in course ... Instead, we've seen a more dangerous path taken through arbitrary arrests, a broad crackdown on Mr Morsi's associations and supporters, and now tragically the violence that's taken the lives of hundreds of people and wounded thousands more.Obama has tried to get away with the next-to-impossible - distance the US from the Cairo massacre but without alienating the generals in Cairo. Unsurprisingly, it took him one full day after the massacre took place to craft a balanced stance.
The United States strongly condemns the steps that have been taken by Egypt's interim government and security forces. We deplore violence against civilians ... We oppose the pursuit of martial law.
But while we want to sustain our relationship with Egypt, our traditional cooperation cannot continue as usual when civilians are being killed in the streets and rights are being rolled back ... I've asked my national security team to assess the implications of the actions taken by the interim government and further steps that we may take as necessary with respect to the US-Egyptian relationship ... We believe that the state of emergency should be lifted, that a process of national reconciliation should begin ... and that commitments must be kept to pursue transparent reforms of the constitution and democratic elections of a parliament and a president.
It comes of a piece with his abysmal record on Egypt - doing little, doing it too late, and ending up sending mixed messages and thereby eroding even further the US's capacity (or willingness) to influence events. Canceling the US' military exercise with Egypt, which was scheduled for September, has become unavoidable in the prevailing anarchic conditions in Egypt and Obama has indulged in sophistry by claiming it as a deliberate political decision.
The core issue remains: how does he hope to meet the US objectives in Egypt by canceling the military exercise at a time when the junta has its hands full with other preoccupations anyway and "inter-operability" with the US armed forces is the last thing on its mind?
At any rate, the kind of tank-on-tank military exercise that the US holds with Egypt has little relevance to today's threat perceptions in the Middle East, which almost entirely emanate out of the exigencies of counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism. In sum, Obama opted for good optics by scuttling an inconsequential event.
On the contrary, if there is a moment to order a suspension of military aid to Egypt, this is it. It will be a strategic error on Obama's part not to suspend the aid - US$1.55 billion including $1.3 billion to the Egyptian military - and instead weaken the US credibility further when the junta has so openly disregarded repeated US calls on the generals to desist from causing bloodshed.
However, as things stand, there is little chance of Obama doing anything that would even remotely damage Washington's equations with the Egyptian generals. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel spoke to the Egyptian army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Thursday to convey that the recent violence might jeopardize US-Egyptian military cooperation but also assuring him that the Obama administration hoped to maintain its military relationship with Cairo.
The dilemma facing the Obama administration continues to be that it is under compulsion to appear to support democracy in Egypt and live up to its own rhetoric to be on the "right side of history" but on the other hand it is under even bigger compulsion to safeguard the US' strategic interests in Egypt, primarily in terms of the junta pursuing policies that serve Israel's security interests and preserving the 1979 peace treaty as well as continuing to provide privileged access to the Suez Canal for the US Navy that is critical at the operational level to the perpetuation of Washington's military dominance of the Middle East and its regional hegemony.
Complicated thought processes
Paradoxically, the Russian stance on Egypt almost entirely devolves upon exploiting the US's acute policy dilemma. Whereas Obama has at least opened his mouth to say something, the Kremlin maintains a stony silence and will only show its hand after Obama plays out of turn.
Ironically, the Egyptian Embassy in Moscow has said that Cairo counts on Russia's assistance in "this trying time, as it used to in the past" (before Anwar Sadat purged Egypt of Soviet experts and advisers). Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a telephone conversation with his Egyptian counterpart Nabil Fahmy on Thursday but the foreign ministry in Moscow did not divulge details except to say that the two diplomats discussed the "latest developments in Egypt".
What transpired at another level in Moscow could be a pointer to the Russian thinking and policy priorities as they continue to evolve at the moment - a telephone talk between Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian President's envoy for the Middle East and deputy foreign minister, and Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates, which was, interestingly, at the latter's instance.
An unidentified source in the Russian foreign ministry later claimed,
Both sides [Russia and the UAE] came out for peaceful, non-violent resolution of problems of countries in the region, respect for sovereignty of states and non-interference in their internal affairs. The sides agreed to maintain a vigorous Russia-Emirates political dialogue on issues of mutual interest, including prospects for partnership between Russia and the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf.It is realistically possible to take a window seat on the complicated thought processes racing through the Russian mind. First of all, the UAE has been one of the handful of countries that fully back the Egyptian junta by insisting that what is happening in Cairo is a law and order issue. The foreign ministry in Abu Dhabi issued a statement on Thursday to declare support for the junta:
The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs re-affirms its understanding of the sovereign measures taken by the Egyptian government after having exercised maximum self-control.The UAE has so far offered the Egyptian junta aid worth $3 billion and has been second only to Saudi Arabia in bankrolling the military coup in Cairo. Paradoxically, the generous help from the petrodollar oligarchies of the Persian Gulf (which are terrified of the regional appeal of the Muslim Brotherhood) is enabling the Egyptian generals to withstand whatever pressure from Washington.
What is regretful is that political extremist groups have insisted on the rhetoric of violence, incitement, disruption of public interests and undermining of the Egyptian economy, which has led to the regretful events.
Conversely, it will be of immense interest to Moscow if the divergence of interests accentuates in the coming period between the US and its oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council allies over the ticklish issue of extending support to the military junta in Cairo. The point is, any such divergence will be, quintessentially speaking, over the future directions of the Arab Spring and in turn it is bound to cast shadows on the conflict in Syria, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been among the most ardent backers of the rebel fighters.
It is in Moscow's interests to keep lines of communication open to Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the Syrian developments at a time when the Western powers are more or less disengaging from any sort of significant military involvement in the conflict. Moscow will be pleasantly surprised that the developments in Egypt, which are of vital interest and core concern to the petrodollar oligarchies of the Persian Gulf region, find Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasingly on the same page.
All three find the Brotherhood to be a toxic substance in the body politic of the Middle East and all three find it abhorrent that political Islam has been gaining ascendancy as the life force of the new Middle East. Russia has proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a subversive organization.
Besides, Russia has happy memories of dealings with the officer corps of the Egyptian military in the Soviet era and will be inclined to see them as a "secular" bulwark against the deluge of "Islamism". It does not seem particularly perturbed about the possibility that into the void created by any retreat of the moderate Brotherhood in Egypt, the Salafists, who are the kindred souls of the forces it battles in the North Caucasus (and whom the Saudis nurture as instruments of regional policy in the Greater Middle East) might enter as the vanguard of "Islamism".
But what really counts today for Moscow is not the fate of Islamism, but geopolitics. Any alienation between the Pentagon and the Egyptian military can dramatically pitchfork Moscow as the mentor of the generals in command in Cairo. Egypt is the epicenter of Middle Eastern politics, and a revival of influence in Cairo can boost Russia's regional influence as a whole on a variety of fronts and holds the potential to project it as an arbiter of peace and stability.
The spin-off in terms of arms exports and other economic benefits is equally self-evident. Naturally, the Kremlin is keenly watching how Obama wriggles out of his Egyptian predicament.
From current trends, Moscow will be gratified to see that the US president is steadily failing to have any meaningful impact on the behavior of the Egyptian generals, who are convinced that they have an existential struggle in hand and who are not inclined to turn back mid-stream to accommodate the Brotherhood in an "inclusive" democracy.
The Egyptian generals will be pleased that US aid continues, but while American assistance is desirable, it is not an absolute pre-requisite of survival if it comes at an unacceptable political price. This is where benefactors such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, which have promised $12 billion financial support - and potentially, Russia, which is a major arms supplier - could come in handy for the Egyptian junta.
Suffice to say, after a gap of some 42 years, a window of opportunity is opening for Russia to stage a political comeback in the corridors of power in Cairo as a big-time player. It was on July 18, 1972, that then Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat summarily announced the expulsion of around 5,000 Soviet military advisors and 15,000 air force personnel in Egypt.
Having said that, Washington can be expected to do everything possible, no matter what it takes, to see that that the window on the Nile banks doesn't open enough for a bear to squeeze through, and indeed the US still has vast residual powers to read the riot act to erring generals and rowdyish Persian Gulf autocrats. In the present climate of US-Russia relations, the Obama administration is certainly not going to roll over and make space for Russia in the Middle East.
The stalemate at the UN Security Council on Thursday is a fairly accurate reflection of the absorbing battle of wits between the big powers vying for influence in Cairo. Of course, the winner is Sisi, the new pharaoh on the Nile - for the time being at least.
Saudi King Voices Supports For Egyptian Coup
Somehow it is not very surprising that the person who should be most concerned should the Egyptian (non) coup spread, namely the head of the House of Saud, is the one to condemn the previous US-supported regime, and to voice his praises for the current US-supported regime.
From Reuters:
Saudi King Abdullah called on Arabs to stand together against "attempts to destabilise" Egypt, in a strong message of support for the country's military leadership read out on Saudi television on Friday."The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its people and government stood and stands by today with its brothers in Egypt against terrorism," he said."I call on the honest men of Egypt and the Arab and Muslim nations ... to stand as one man and with one heart in the face of attempts to destabilise a country that is at the forefront of Arab and Muslim history," he added.Saudi Arabia was a close ally of former president Hosni Mubarak and has historically had a difficult relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood. It pledged $5 billion in aid to Egypt after Mohammed Mursi of the Brotherhood was ousted from the presidency last month.
Wait, did Abdullah call on the honest men of the Arab and Muslim nations to stand as one two years ago when Egypt was swept with a US-supported revolution in an idential attempt to "destabilize a country?"
Or perhaps if he didn't then, and he does not... maybe he has some ulterior motives even though, as Reuters, notes, he did pledge $5 billion in aid to the man whom the US forcibly removed.
Could it be that there is a natgas pipeline in it for the Saudis who were recently humiliated by Putin and are desperate to save some international face?
Egypt turmoil triggers global protests | ||
Hundreds march across cities in several countries denouncing the US and chanting slogans in support of Mohamed Morsi.
Last Modified: 16 Aug 2013 21:03
     | ||
Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters took to the streets in the Turkish capital [AFP]
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| Protests against the ongoing violence in Egypt have been staged in several countries, including Turkey, Tunisia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Libya and Malaysia. Hundreds of demonstrators waving Islamic flags and chanting anti-US slogans took to the streets in Ankara and Istanbul on Friday.  Riot police stood nearby but did not intervene. The crowds were kept back from the embassy grounds and were later allowed to move to the Egyptian embassy, a short distance away. In Istanbul, hundreds of protesters gathered in the conservative district of Eyup, shouting pro-Morsi and Islamic slogans, waving Egyptian, Palestinian and Syrian opposition flags. Turkey has emerged as one of the fiercest international critics of Morsi's removal. Other rallies Hundreds also rallied in Pakistan in support of Morsi and to condemn the use of force against the Muslim Brotherhood, witnesses said.
The demonstrations were mostly organised by religiously conservative political parties including Jamaat-e-Islami. In Pakistan's largest city Karachi, more than 500 people marched with banners and placards chanting anti-US slogans as well as support for Morsi. About 1,500 marched on the main avenue in Tunis, the Tunisian capital, many of them after leaving Friday prayers. They gathered in a large square in front of the municipal theatre, shouting slogans in support of Morsi, and condemning the Egyptian military and the US. The hour-long protest was peaceful. Anti-coup rallies were also held in Sanaa, the Yemeni capital. The protesters shouted anti-coup slogans, carried pro-Morsi banners and posters, and prayed together for Morsi. In Vienna, the Austrian capital, about 500 demonstrators, most of them Egyptian, gathered in St Stephens Square. Organiser Ali Ibrahim of the Egyptian community in Austria said the demonstration was not in support of Morsi, but "for democracy and the protection of freedom." Similar demonstrations were held in Malaysia, Libya and Indonesia during the day. Egypt Junta Defends Massacre as Toll Over 700Hundreds of Other Slain Not Accounted for in Official Figures
by Jason Ditz, August 15, 2013
Fresh off of yesterday’s massacre of at least 700 people and the wounding of over 4,000 others, according to what is likely a low-ball official toll, Egypt’s military junta isloudly defending its crackdown, with Ambassador Ashraf Elkholy insisting that the public protests were “unaccepted in any community” and that any other government would’ve done the same.
 Junta officials continue to refer to the civilian protesters as “terrorists” while growing anger at home and abroad seems to be totally lost on them. Officials even bragged about authorizing troops to use “live ammunition” against protesters starting today, even though an overwhelming number of yesterday’s dead were shot by the same sort of ammunition.
The true death toll remains entirely speculative, with the Health Ministry’s figures of 638 dead and 4,000 wounded excluding hundreds of slain civilians being held in makeshift morgues around the massacre sites, and the wounded toll no doubt counting only those who managed to get to official hospitals, while large numbers of casualties continues to flock to mosques where doctors had set up unofficial emergency clinics to treat them.
Though the coup initially enjoyed support from a broad coalition of mostly unelectable “liberal” politicians a large number of them appear to be scrambling to distance themselves now that it’s come to this, with Vice President Mohamed ElBaradei the highest profile resignation but a lot of other politicians also fearing that their nominal political bases will be further eroded by being linked to wholesale slaughter on the streets of Cairo.
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http://rt.com/news/egypt-milllions-protest-morsi-458/
Friday, August 16
21:20 GMT: The British Foreign Office has reissued a travel warning to British citizens. The statement advises against “all but essential travel to the rest of Egypt except for resorts on the Red Sea.”
The Foreign Office especially warns against travel to the “Governorate of North Sinai due to the significant increase in criminal activity and recent terrorist attacks on police and security forces that have resulted in deaths.”
The Foreign Office especially warns against travel to the “Governorate of North Sinai due to the significant increase in criminal activity and recent terrorist attacks on police and security forces that have resulted in deaths.”
21:04 GMT: Al Arabiya is reporting that 263 armed Muslim Brotherhood members have so far been arrested in Ramses Square, citing Egypt’s interior ministry.
21:02 GMT: Clashes between security forces and protesters in the Sinai Peninsula have left at least six people dead, including one policemen. Seventeen others were injured, according to medical sources cited by Reuters.
Clashes in the city of Arish erupted when Morsi supporters stormed Rommana Police Station, Ahram Online reported. The army moved in to restore order.
Activists opened fire and hurled petrol bombs at the Civil Defense headquarters in Arish, prompting policemen to retaliate by returning fire.
In a separate incident, three rocket-propelled grenades were fired at the house of North Sinai's governor.
Clashes in the city of Arish erupted when Morsi supporters stormed Rommana Police Station, Ahram Online reported. The army moved in to restore order.
Activists opened fire and hurled petrol bombs at the Civil Defense headquarters in Arish, prompting policemen to retaliate by returning fire.
In a separate incident, three rocket-propelled grenades were fired at the house of North Sinai's governor.
20:46 GMT: Al Fath Mosque in Cairo's Ramses Square is reportedly still under gunfire attack. The Egyptian military says it will aim to disperse the protesters in the square, Al Jazeera reports.
Armored vehicles and security forces arrived earlier at the scene, which was the center of Friday's crackdown.
Armored vehicles and security forces arrived earlier at the scene, which was the center of Friday's crackdown.
20:38 GMT: The office of the Red Crescent in Cairo has been set on fire by Muslim Brotherhood supporters, according to unconfirmed reports.
Egypt Is Descending Into Civil War, But Don’t Expect Obama To Cancel His Golf Vacation
The largest Islamic nation in the Middle East is on the verge of descending into civil war, the Syrian civil war is starting to spill over into Lebanon, and the worst violence in five years has just hit Iraq, but Barack Obama is way too busy to be bothered with any of that. Right now, Obama is enjoying one of the true loves of his life – golf.
According to the Washington Post, Obama has “played 18 holes of golf every day but one this week”, and without a doubt he appears to really be enjoying his time up in Martha’s Vineyard. I hear that it is absolutely beautiful up there this time of the year. And apparently he needs the rest. After all, prior to this vacation he has only had time to play 133 rounds of golf since becoming president. Betweensnubbing world leaders and getting the U.S. economy going again, it must be really tough for Obama to find enough time to sharpen his game.
Of course I am being facetious. It is absolutely ridiculous how much time Obama takes off, and Congress is even worse. Congress is takinga five week vacation right now. Most Americans don’t get that much vacation in an entire year.
Meanwhile, as our leaders enjoy their rest, the Middle East is coming apart at the seams.
In Egypt, authorities say that 638 people are now confirmed deadand another 3,994 people were wounded in the nightmarish violence that erupted in Cairo this week. Hundreds of bodies remain uncounted by the authorities, and it appears very likely that Egypt is rapidly heading down the path to full-blown civil war…
Angry supporters of ousted president Mohammed Morsi staged protests and burned buildings Thursday as President Obama condemned the violence on both sides and canceled next month’s joint military operations.The unrest came a day after at least 638 people were killed in violence nationwide, including 43 police officers, the Health Ministry said. Most of the deaths occurred when security forces smashed two pro-Morsi sit-in camps in the capital. In the Nasr City district, 288 people were killed.The Health Ministry said 3,994 people were injured.After the police moved on the camps, street battles broke out across Egypt. Government buildings and police stations were attacked, roads were blocked, and Christian churches were torched, Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim said.
Sadly, some of the supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood have chosen to express their fury with the government by setting Christian homes, businesses and churches on fire. According to one report, 18 churcheshave been torched so far…
Now, with the crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood members by the Egyptian army, Islamist fanatics are taking out their frustrations on Coptic Christians. In the past few days, there has been a spate of attacks on Christian businesses, homes, and churches. As of Wednesday morning, according to local witnesses, at least 18 churches had been destroyed, and fires and riots were continuing to spread in Christian areas, the witnesses said.
This is absolutely despicable, and it is turning out to be one of the worst disasters for Coptic Christians ever recorded. Over the past few days, Twitter has been absolutely flooded with reports about what has been happening to Christians in Egypt…
Using the hashtag #EgyChurch, Egyptian users of Twitter and other social networks broadcast messages like “Can’t keep up with the number of churches, Christian businesses, and affiliates being attacked by ‘peaceful’ Muslim Brotherhood,” “It’s clear the Copts are having their churches burnt,” and “This is quickly becoming the worst sectarian catastrophe we’ve seen in our lifetimes.”
Meanwhile, the violence in Iraq continues to escalate. The following is how Reuters described what happened in Baghdad on Thursday…
Car bomb attacks killed at least 34 people in Baghdad on Thursday but the Interior Ministry said it would not allow al Qaeda, which it blames for a surge in sectarian violence, to turn Iraq into another Syria.AD
State Of Mind: The Psychology Of Control, from the creators of A Noble Lie. A film that reveals much of what we believe to be truth is actually deliberate deception.More than 100 people were wounded in at least eight blasts, one of which was near the “Green Zone” diplomatic complex, part of a wave of bloodshed that has taken the monthly death toll in Iraq to the highest levels in five years.“Iraq’s streets have become a battleground for sectarian people who are motivated by hatred and religious edicts and daring to kill innocent people,” the Interior Ministry said in an unusually frank statement.“It is our destiny to win this battle which is aimed at destroying the country and turning it into another Syria,” the ministry said.
And the absolutely brutal civil war in Syria is now spilling over into Lebanon. On Thursday, a Shiite stronghold in Beirut was hit by the worst car bomb attack that Lebanon has witnessed in decades…
A powerful car bomb tore through a bustling south Beirut neighborhood that is a stronghold of Hezbollah on Thursday, killing at least 18 and trapping dozens of others in an inferno of burning cars and buildings in the bloodiest attack yet on Lebanese civilians linked to Syria’s civil war.The blast is the second in just over a month to hit one of the Shiite militant group’s bastions of support, and the deadliest in decades. It raises the specter of a sharply divided Lebanon being pulled further into the conflict next door, which is being fought on increasingly sectarian lines pitting Sunnis against Shiites.
And of course we shouldn’t forget about the war in Yemen either. Sadly, as Ron Paul recently noted, most Americans don’t even realize what is going on in Yemen…
Most Americans are probably unaware that over the past two weeks the US has launched at least eight drone attacks in Yemen, in which dozens have been killed. It is the largest US escalation of attacks on Yemen in more than a decade. The US claims that everyone killed was a “suspected militant,” but Yemeni citizens have for a long time been outraged over the number of civilianskilled in such strikes. The media has reported that of all those killed in these recent US strikes, only one of the dead was on the terrorist “most wanted” list.This significant escalation of US attacks on Yemen coincides with Yemeni President Hadi’s meeting with President Obama in Washington earlier this month. Hadi was installed into power with the help of the US government after a 2011 coup against its long-time ruler, President Saleh. It is in his interest to have the US behind him, as his popularity is very low in Yemen and he faces the constant threat of another coup.
Unfortunately, this is probably only just the beginning.
The violence in the Middle East is probably going to get much worse, and at some point I expect a major regional war to erupt in the years ahead.
But instead of going back to the White House and at least giving the appearance of being on top of things, Obama plans to continue his golf vacation.
This is so negligent that even the Washington Post is ripping him to shreds…
In a sense, then, Obama might as well play golf. He’s dropped the ball on Egypt and the entire region, leaving the United States with few options and the Egyptian people to a bloody future in the short run and a repressive authoritarian junta in the longer run. This is a policy failure of the highest order.
But this is just par for the course for Obama.
As we learned this week, this is the guy that was actually playing cardsduring the bin Laden raid…
Despite the picture the White House released showing President Obama intently watching the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, his former “body man” says the president spent most of the raid playing a card game.“Most people were like down in the Situation Room and [the president] was like, ‘I’m not going to be down there, I can’t watch this entire thing.’ So he, myself, Pete Souza, the White House photographer, Marvin [Nicholson], we must have played 15 games of spades,” former Obama aide Reggie Love said at an event in Los Angeles sponsored by The Artists & Athletes Alliance in July.Love, who played college basketball and football at Duke University, left the White House in 2011 to attend business school.
You can see video of Obama’s former “body man”, Reggie Love, making these remarks right here.
When it comes to foreign policy, Obama seems to be totally clueless.
So what would happen someday if a major foreign policy crisis erupted that actually seriously threatened our national security?
Would Obama be up to the task?
Let’s hope that we don’t have to find out.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-16/egypt-military-prepares-crush-islamist-day-rage
Egypt Military Prepares To Crush Islamist March Of Millions "Day Of Rage"
If there is one day when the pent up tensions on both sides resulting from the Egyptian coup over a month ago may boil over and lead to an all out civil war (still unclear how John Kerry would "define" that one) today may be that day, as Cairo is braced for what may be the most violent confrontations yet with supporters of the deposed president Mursi calling for “day of rage” protests after Friday prayers, and the Egyptian polic (now using live ammo) and army set to crush any such "illegal" protests. Since millions are set to hit the streets, there is no way this will have a peaceful outcome.
As Egypt faces the gruesome aftermath of clashes that left hundreds dead, demonstrators plan to defy an emergency order and take to the streets to mark "Friday of anger."The Muslim Brotherhood promised huge protests, and Egypt's military government showed no sign of easing its crackdown, setting the stage for what could become another catastrophic encounter of security forces and protesters."The struggle to overthrow this illegitimate regime is an obligation," the Muslim Brotherhood said on its website Friday, while urging people to protest peacefully.Military vehicles were deployed Friday across Cairo and Giza, taking up positions in squares and securing important institutions, the state-run EGYNews reported. The agency said armored vehicles and barbed wire blocked all entrances to Tahrir Square, and 22 armored vehicles were in Mustafa Mahmoud Square.The state-run agency said the military increased checkpoints at all entrances to Cairo to prevent arms smuggling to protesters.Also Friday, at least 20 police officers were wounded when assailants opened fire on two security cars north of Cairo, according to EGYNews.The leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom will have phone conversations to discuss Egypt, the office of French President Francois Hollande said. Hollande planned to talk to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron.Egyptian authorities rejected criticism from President Barack Obama and other world leaders for Wednesday's ferocious clashes, which left at least 680 people dead when security forces broke up huge sit-ins in Cairo, according to the Health Ministry.More than 4,000 were injured. Casualties included civilians, police officers and bystanders.
“The struggle to overthrow this illegitimate regime is an obligation, an Islamic, national, moral, and human obligation which we will not steer away from until justice and freedom prevail, and until repression is conquered,” said a statement from the Anti-Coup Alliance, a coalition of Islamist groups dominated by Mr Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood. The statement said the protesters would not resort to “violence or vandalism” but current intense tensions make a conflagration very likely. State media reported on Friday that the army was being deployed to guard “vital installations”. In central Cairo, there were military vehicles manned by soldiers and checkpoints with barbed wire, Reuters reported.At least 578 people were killed in clashes between security forces and Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Cairo and elsewhere, according to official figures. The Muslim Brotherhood claim many hundred more were killed. It is impossible to independently verify the number of dead. The rising toll meant that Wednesday’s raid by authorities on the protest camps had resulted in the deadliest day seen in Egypt since the 2011 uprising that led to the overthrow of former president Hosni Mubarak.
BBC summarizes:
- Supporters of ousted President Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood call for fresh protests after Friday prayers
- It comes two days after more than 638 people lost their lives when security forces cleared Muslim Brotherhood protest camps
- A state of emergency is in force and the police are authorised to use live ammunition in self-defence
- Wednesday's bloodshed has drawn international condemnation
If and when the crackdown begins, we will be sure to webcast it live.
http://rt.com/news/egypt-violence-un-protest-551/
Egyptian security forces have been authorized to use lethal force to prevent further riots ahead of a March of Anger called by the Muslim Brotherhood on Friday. Tensions are running high after Wednesday’s crackdown on protesters.
The Brotherhood called for marches in towns and villages across Egypt to protest the forceful break-up of two sit-in camps by supporters of deposed President Mohamed Morsi, which left more than 500 people dead and thousands injured.
"After the blows and arrests and killings that we are facing, emotions are too high to be guided by anyone," said Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Gehad El-Haddad.
In a countermove, a loose liberal and leftist coalition, the National Salvation Front, called on Egyptians to protest Friday against what it said was "obvious terrorism actions" conducted by Morsi’s supporters. Many young, liberal Egyptians were among the vocal supporters of the military ouster of Morsi’s government and clashed with the Muslim Brotherhood crowds on several occasions during the six-week standoff that followed the coup.
All approaches to Tahrir Square have been sealed off by security forces with armored vehicles and barbed wire as they brace for Friday’s protests. The Anwar al-Sadat underground station was also closed and the military took under guard "vital installations" ahead of the demonstrations.
A small group of pro-military protesters has remained in Tahrir Square since Morsi’s ouster as president in early July.
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