Thursday, May 23, 2013

Harvey Organ Gold and Silver evening Report - May 23 , 2013 ..... Data , news and views - highlighted articles from Silver Doctors , Turd Ferguson , GATA ( Delivery delays at LBMA ? Jim Turk says yes ... ) , Miles Franklin

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/05/japanese-nikkei-halted-last-nightbond.html


Thursday, May 23, 2013

Japanese Nikkei halted last night/Bond market also halted. Yields on Japanese 10 year rise to 1%/ USA 10 yr surpasses 2%/gold rises to $1393.00/More gold leaves the GLD/and Comex/Gigantic 5.648 million oz leaves SLV


Gold closed up $15.40 to $1392.00 (comex closing time).  Silver rose by 3 cents to $22.49  (comex closing time)

In the access market at 6:30 pm, gold and silver are trading at the following prices :

Gold was on the defensive early last night until the halting of the Nikkei exchange. Then  all of the bourses were massively in the red and  only gold stood out. By the time the comex opened, gold was trading around $1390.00.  The bankers refused to quit as they knocked gold down again but the physical buying was just too great as gold closed near its highs at $1392.00.  Silver was a little more subdued closing up only 3 cents on the day.

At the Comex, the open interest in silver fell by 1,308 contracts to 147,311 contracts with silver's rise in price yesterday by 3 cents.  The silver OI is  holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the gold contract  rose  by 5,242 contracts to 451,335 . The gold deliveries for May rose a bit today  to  9.45 tonnes and this is an off month for gold. The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery in May lowered a bit  standing at 17.210 million oz. ( On first day notice:  14.860 million oz.)


Again, at the Comex,  gold is departing as investors are frightened to death of a confiscation similar to what happened at MFGlobal or Refco. Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold remains at 1.668 million oz or 51.88 tonnes.  The total of all gold at the comex fell slightly and still well below the 8 million oz at 7.897 million oz or 245.6 tonnes of gold.

The GLD  reported another  loss in gold inventory of 1.5 tonnes. The SLV inventory of silver lost a gigantic 5.648 million oz. The game will end when the last ounce of gold from the GLD/LBMA leaves London's shores  for Chinese waters.

Today we have a great commentary from Bill Holter as he tackles the huge rise in yields on the Japanese 10 yr bonds (now 1%) and the USA (now 2%) and what this means.  You do not want to miss this very important commentary.  

Today, we have an important commentary from Ted Butler as he approached the GAO to complain that the CFTC was not doing anything with its 5 year investigation on the silver mess.  They have responded and seem anxious to tackle this mess.  The GAO is only answerable to Congress.

James Turk is now reporting that gold is being delayed at the LBMA due to tightness in the metal.

The big story of today was Japan.  Not only did the authorities halt the Japanese bond market for the 3rd time, but they also halted for the first time in many years, the Nikkei as it lost a monstrous 1143 points.  From high to low point, the Nikkei lost 1500 points. 


We will go over these and other stories but first.....................

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are the details:


The total gold comex open interest rose by 6961 contracts  from 446,087 up to 451,335 with gold falling by $1.20 yesterday.  The front non active delivery month of May saw its OI fell by 16 contracts  down to 1056.  However we had 18 delivery notice filed on Wednesday.  Thus we gained 2  gold contracts  in May or an additional 200 oz will stand.   The next active contract month is June and here the OI fell by 14,912 contracts to 159,968 as most of these paper players rolled into August. June is the second biggest delivery month in gold's calender and first day notice is a week today as Friday is a holiday.  The estimated volume today was huge at 233,608 contracts.    The confirmed volume on Wednesday was extremely good at 397,981 contracts.



The total silver Comex OI completely plays to a different drummer than gold. It   fell by 1308  contracts from 148,619 down to 147,311,  with  silver's slight rise in price of 2 cents yesterday.  The front active silver delivery month of May saw it's OI fall by 15 contracts down to 149.  We had 10 delivery notices filed on Wednesday so we lost 5 contracts or 25,000 of silver will not  stand for delivery in May.  The next  delivery month for silver is June and here the OI fell by 22 contracts to stand at 372. The next big active contract month is July and here the OI fell  by 2711 contracts to rest tonight at 77,863. It looks like we had some short covering as the bankers might be thinking that the silver situation was a little steamy for them.  The estimated volume today was good, coming in at 43,080 contracts.  The confirmed volume on Wednesday was huge  at  80,863.


Comex gold/May contract month:



May 23/2013




Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 64,136.441 (Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil
No of oz served (contracts) today
 0 (nil  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1056 (105,600)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1982  (198,200)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
10,656.61
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month


 
732,237.45 oz  



We had fair activity at the gold vaults.
The dealer had 0 deposits and 0  dealer withdrawals.


We had 0 customer deposits today:


total customer deposit: nil oz



We had 1 customer withdrawal today:

i) Out of Scotia:  64,136.441 oz


total customer withdrawals:  64,136.441  oz
We had 1   adjustments 

Out of Brinks:  600.01 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and back into the dealer account at Brinks.

The JPMorgan customer vault remains at 297,426.75  oz today or 9.25 tonnes
as there were no transactions


Tonight the dealer inventory remains tonight at a low of 1.668 million oz (51.88) tonnes of gold. The total of all gold falls again to its low point at the comex, resting tonight at 7.897 million oz or 245.62 tonnes.


The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed today for nil  oz of gold.
To calculate the quantity of gold ounces that will stand, I take the OI standing for May  (1056) and subtract out today's notices (0) which leaves us with 1056 notices or 105,600 oz left to be served upon our longs. 

Thus  we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in May:

1982 contracts x 100 oz per contract  or  198,200 oz (served)  +  1056 notices or 105,600 oz (to be served upon)  =  303,800  oz or 9.45 tonnes of gold.

We gained an additional 200 oz of gold standing for the May delivery month.


This is extremely high for a non active month. 

It is also interesting that the USA produces around 20 tonnes of gold per month
and thus the amount standing for gold this month represents  47% of that total production.


The big June delivery month will surely be exciting to watch judging by the huge demand for gold in May. We will also see if the boys have any trouble servicing the last 1,056 contracts in the May delivery month  We have 4 more trading sessions before first day notice.  We will also watch what happens with JPMorgan with respect to its customer gold.  It remains now at 9.25 tonnes of gold. 


Silver:

May 23.2013:  May silver: 

Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventorynil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 60,354.66 oz (Scotia)  
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 1,149,707.77 (CNT Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts)40 (200,000)
No of oz to be served (notices)109  (545,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3333  (16,665,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month903,273.57 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month4,750,363.0  oz


Today, we  had good activity  inside the silver vaults.

 we had 0 dealer deposits and 0  dealer withdrawals.

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into CNT:  600,055.70 oz
ii) Into Scotia:  549,652.07 oz


total customer deposit; 1,1149,707.77  oz


We had 1 customer withdrawals:


i) Out of Scotia:  60,354.66 oz


total customer withdrawals: 60,354.66 oz 
  
we had 1   adjustments  today

i. Out of the CNT vault:  161,149.10 oz was adjusted out of the customer and back into the dealer account at CNT


Registered silver  at :  43.716 million oz
total of all silver:  165.338 million oz.


The CME reported that we had 40 notices filed for 200,000 oz. We have a total of 3,333 notices filed so far this month for 16,665,000 oz.  To calculate the number of ounces that will stand in silver, I take the OI standing for May (149) and subtract out today's notices (40) which leaves us with 109 notices or 545,000 oz left to be served upon our longs. 
  
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this  active delivery month of May is as follows:

3333 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 16,665,000 +  109 contracts x 5000 oz =  545,000 oz ( to be served)  =  17,210,000 oz.

we  lost 5 contracts or 25,000 of silver which will not stand for May today. The total standing for silver is still superb for May.

The total amount standing for May in silver represents 51.22% of ANNUAL silver production from the USA

Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first: 1.5 tons leave the door today


May 23.2013:




Tonnes1,018.57

Ounces32,747,937.28

Value US$45.192  billion






May 22.2013:


Tonnes1,020.07

Ounces32,796,277.52

Value US$46.177  billion





*   *   * 


selected news and views.....

A must read for today.  Normally at the London fix, there is a delay of 2 days before gold is transferred to the buyer.  This is referred to as T plus 2. Due to the shortage of metal, delays are now 5 days or greater, known as T plus 5.


(courtesy James Turk/Kingworld News)




Gold deliveries delayed in London, Turk tells King World News

 Section: 
1:55p ET Thursday, May 23, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk today tells King World News of delivery delays in the London gold market, adding to evidence of strain in the gold market around the world, and predicts that the paper shorts are about to be overrun. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Gene Arensberg discusses the COT report and how the big silver shorts are covering like mad:

(courtesy gotgoldreport/GATA)


Gene Arensberg's Got Gold Report: Big silver shorts cover madly

 Section: 
1:13a ET Thursday, May 23, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gene Arensberg's latest edition of the Got Gold Report has been posted in video format and it finds the big commercial traders unloading their short positions in silver to the lowest point in 13 years:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


From Ted Butler this evening;


In the last paragraph of the January 5 Weekly Review; I made reference to something I was working on that I preferred not to disclose at that time. I’d like to do so now and ask for your assistance. A little over a year ago, a subscriber sent me a constructive suggestion for how to force the CFTC to do their job and end the silver manipulation. Since I had promised myself that I would never leave any stone unturned in the attempt to end the manipulation, I followed Jeff’s suggestion, although I admit to doing so with as close to zero expectation for success as was possible. The suggestion was to complain to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) about the CFTC. I filed a complaint on their web site hotline www.gao.gov and promptly forgot about the matter. After all, over the years I had complained to every government agency possible and never heard back from anyone.
In December, I got a follow up call from the GAO that caught me so much by surprise that I didn’t know why they were calling me at first. They requested additional information (which I provided) and I have had several conference calls with the agency concerning my allegations of malfeasance by the CFTC in matters related to the silver manipulation. It was only after the first phone call from the agency that I took the time to find out what this agency was all about and I suggest you do the same.
I thought I knew it as the General Accounting Office, but the name was changed in 2004. What I also learned was that this was a unique government agency, separate and distinct from all the other federal agencies, including the CFTC. The GAO reports only to Congress and exists to ensure that all the other federal agencies stay on the up and up. In a practical sense, the GAO is the Inspector General of all the federal agencies. As such (and you can verify this on your own), this agency seems tailor-made to investigate why the CFTC won’t do its job when it comes to the silver manipulation.
Generally, the GAO audits and investigates as directed by law or congressional mandate, ideally at the request of the leadership of the congressional committee that has requisite jurisdiction. However, they can take some cases on their own initiative and that is the approach by which things have advanced to date. I took this approach and stayed quiet about it because I was concerned that as soon as JPMorgan learned of this initiative, they would call in their political favors and make sure any review by the GAO of the CFTC was squashed. That may still turn out to be the case, but that fear is not enough so as to not try at all.
According to my read on the situation, the GAO is interested in pursuing the matter, but a request to investigate from the right committee or representative would seal the deal. I can tell you that in my conversations with them to date, this agency sounds fiercely independent and interested in doing the right thing. What is the right thing in my view? The right thing would be an impartial and objective review for why the CFTC won’t conclude a more than 4.5 year formal silver investigation or make any comment about the unusually large price takedowns that are unique to silver. You know the CFTC would not tolerate such price volatility in any other market, only silver. Can you imagine the uproar if it was the stock market that fell 10% in thin Sunday evening dealings?
I believe that an impartial review of the CFTC by the GAO could end the silver manipulation. At the very least, it would be most welcome to hear from an objective government source which is not tainted by the conflict of having denied a silver manipulation has existed on countless past occasions over decades. If you agree, here’s what I would ask you to do. First, please check and see if your elected representatives are on any of the following committees that have jurisdiction over the CFTC. Don’t let that stop you from contacting the appropriate chairmen directly or your own representatives even if they are not on the appropriate committees.


ROB KIRBY TAKES THE GLOVES OFF ON SILVER MANIPULATION: JPMORGAN IS THE GOV’T!

ESFRob Kirby and Andy Hoffman join Elijah Johnson for a MUST LISTEN interview on Sunday’s silver smash, which saw 10% shaved off the silver futures price in only 4 minutes in a massive waterfall raid taking the metal to $20.30. 
Kirby had this to say about the raid:
The take-down in precious metals is a contrivance, and it reeks and absolutely stinks of desperation on the part of the protectors of the world’s reserve currency, and that would be the US Treasury in cahoots with the Federal Reserve. 
I want to take the gloves off here.  Let’s just get this right up on the table.  JP Morgan’s positions aren’t JP Morgan’s positions. 
JP Morgan’s positions are the positions of the exchange stabilization fund, which is a branch of the US Treasury.  When the US Treasury intervenes in the markets, they do so through the trading desk of the NY Fed, and their positions are executed by the NY Fed, who farm the trades out to the big derivatives banks.  In that context, JP Morgan is the Federal Reserve.  They are one and the same!
Rob Kirby along with Andy Hoffman’s MUST LISTEN interview on silver manipulation is below: [Read more...]

Defaults Defaults Everywhere

blog.milesfranklin.com / By Andrew Hoffman / May 23rd, 2013
There’s no surer sign of FRAUD than prices falling whilst supply is falling FASTER; and when it comes to PHYSICAL PMs, it should be painfully clear by now that the supply/demand balance is “tight as a drum” – for both silver
…and gold; per last week’s RANT, “PHYSICAL VS. PAPER PMs – CASE CLOSED”…
WGP SGE Graph
However, even a term as ugly as “fraud” doesn’t do justice to what we have seen since the mid-January; when the Cartel went into ATTACK mode; just days after the U.S. Mint announced a 12-day suspension of Silver Eagles due to SHORTAGE…

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4733/ebb-and-flow-funds


The Ebb and Flow of Funds

I've been meaning to write about this for a couple of days and this is the first chance I've had to get it done.
What set me off was a headline I saw scroll by on ZeroHedge the other night. Some meathead from Deutsche Bank was claiming that "the supercycle move for commodities was over" or some such nonsense. This, of course, caught my eye because:
  1. I keep hearing that Deutsche Bank continues to teeter on the edge of bankruptcy/insolvency.
  2. Deutshce Bank is also a major bullion bank and several folks have reported that the April Beatdown was a desperate action, initiated to save a bullion bank from default.
  3. I think all the Elliott Wave stuff is bullshit and I particularly don't like the snake oil selling practitioners like Prechter.
At any rate, I couldn't get the thought out of my head that some might believe that this latest bull market in commodities was kaput. Clearly lots of people do think this though and, no doubt, that is partly the rationale behind all of the hedge fund gold selling.
Speaking of which, did you see this chart yesterday? Bloomberg put it out and it was picked up by nearly every gold/silver site. It shows in graphic detail what I have been trying to tell you for months. Namely, that the buildup of Spec short interest is at historic levels and this has led to a transference of "short liability risk" from The Cartel to the Specs.
Again, why are the Specs so bearish on gold? Well, one of the reasons is the overall crappy performance of commodities, in general. For a reversal in price that squeezes the shorts and resumes the bull trend in gold, one of the things we'll need is a reversal of this Spec flow of funds. This is something that TraderDan has been harping on for months. Personally I think that this is too narrow of a point of view but, for the purposes of this post, let's go with it.
The question lays out like this:
  • Gold is going down because commodities in general are going down
  • So gold won't likely go back up until commodities in general go back up
  • But if the "commodity supercycle" is over...
  • How can gold ever reverse? It will just keep going down, too. Right?
I know that many of you feel this way, having been misled by newsletter writers and the stooges in the mainstream financial press. So, I thought I'd take this argument head on by looking for a bottom in commodities or, specifically, the Continuous Commodity Index. Because, if:
  • Commodities bottom and reverse, then
  • The flow of Spec/Momo/HFT/HedgeFund/MoneyManager funds will reverse, too, and
  • Gold and silver will reverse and trade higher, not lower.
Let's start with a linear scale, 25-year chart for the CCI. Note that the current trend began in late 2001 and continues to this day with one exception...2008. Recall the extreme volatility and illiquidity of The Great Financial Crisis. Because of the unusual nature of that period, I believe that the move down and through the trendline was a simple "overshoot". Confirming this idea is the clear evidence that, once things settled down a bit in 2009, the index moved back above the trendline and continued higher. Again, though, look closely at that drop. It went all the way to a spike low of 322. However, the action centered for six months around the 350 level. Why is that important? More on that in a minute.
Next, let's take a closer look at this linear chart. I've tried to replicate the same red trendlines here as shown above. What do we see? Two things:
  1. The move down this week has seemingly broken the trendline again, just like 2008.
  2. The index looks to have considerable, horizontal support beginning near 500 and reaching all the way down to about 450.
OK, let's stop here and recap what we've found so far.
  • A definable trend has been in place for 11.5 years. (That's a long time.)
  • But this trend has given false signals before, especially during TGFC of 2008.
  • Just like 2008, the trend appears to be breaking again.
  • Considerable chart support looks to reside between 450 and 500 on the index.
Earlier this week, we used a logarithmic chart to analyze the 25-year trend in gold. The reason for using a "log" chart over a linear chart is that it affords the viewer a better comprehension of change over time when the change in question is substantial. Therefore, I thought that next it would be helpful to review a 25-year logarithmic chart for the CCI. Hmmmm. What do we see here?
Notice that I've drawn two trendlines. One connects the beginning of the move in late 2001 with the 322 low of 12/08 and the other connects the beginning with what, to me, is a more accurate low of 341 in 03/09. Follow those lines along to present day and what do you see? Like the linear chart,support appears to be between 450 and 500! As Mel Allen would say: "How about that?!?"
But wait, there's more. If you continue reading, you'll not only get this evidence, but we'll also throw in some Fibonacci numbers! All at one, low price!
So, let's look at some Fibonacci numbers. First, for reference, here's another chart, this time with the actual highs and lows written on it and no trendlines.
Now let's break out the calculator and do some math.
  • The move began at 184 and topped at 615 in July of 2008. That's 431 points. The correction that followed bottomed at 322 but I've described that above as an "overshoot" caused by TGFC of 2008. The true bottom was dug out over a period of about six months and it was centered right around 350. So, the move UP was 431 points and a Fibonacci 61.8% correction would be a 266 point drop. Drumroll, please...615 - 266 = 349. Hmmm. Isn't that interesting?
Now let's look at current day. Recall that above, I drew all sorts of lines on all types of charts and everything seemed to point to support and a bottom for the CCI, somewhere between 450 and 500.
  • If we use 349 as the low for the first correction and mark the second high as 691 in April of 2011, that's a 342 point rally. If we are currently experiencing another 61.8% retracement, we should expect a bottom near 480. Why? 342 x 61.8% = 211 and 691 - 211 = 480.
  • If we use 184 as the low that marked the beginning of the bull market in 2001 and 691 from April of 2011 as the latest top, we get an overall move of 507 points. If on this broad sense, we were to look for a Fibonacci retracement, we don't need to start at 61.8%. Instead, we need to look at the Fibo number preceding it which is 38.2%. If we use that Fibo level, what do we get? 507 x 38.2% = 194 and 691 - 194 = 497.
  • So the linear and log charts show support between 450 and 500 and the Fibos tell us to expect a bottom between 480 and 497. Works for me!
OK. Right now you're probably completely numb and wondering what the heck was the point of all this. I understand how you feel so allow me to sum up:
  1. The goon from DB truly is a DB and he is either hopelessly wrong or intentionally deceiving everyone in the hopes of adding fuel to the commodity liquidation fire.
  2. I believe that the bull market in real assets that began in 2001 continues unabated.
  3. This current correction likely has a little ways farther to go, however. Perhaps a much as 10% more, taking the CCI down under 500 before finding The Bottom.
  4. Once a clear bottom is found, the Flow of Funds from Specs will reverse and all "commodities", including gold and silver, will trend higher into the next short-term top, whenever that happens.
Finally, you and I both know that gold and silver specifically have been manipulated lower for a number of reasons and will soon move higher again based upon their own fundamentals and not the whims of the Specs. A short squeeze or LBMA/Comex default brought about by physical demand will move prices higher regardless of how soybeans and crude oil are trading. But the point of this exercise was to address the "traditionalist" view of the commodity markets and bring that view into line with where all of us in Turdville see things headed. I hope I've been able to accomplish just that.
TF

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