http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-25/gold-silver-morning-smackdown-becomes-smackup-surge-continues
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/25/2013 09:07 -0400
Ed Steer's Morning Report !
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/u.s.-mint-gold-sales-surge-to-highest-since-2009/
Gold and Silver evening wrap up !
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/just-what-going-gold-jpmorgans-vault
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2013 21:34 -0400
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/04/silver-and-gold-risesilver-oi-rises-to.html
( Another four tons of gold leave the GLD ETF today ..... And the gold drawdowns at Comex continue apace....
)
The Gold, Silver Morning Smackdown Becomes A Smackup As Surge Continues
After recovering 50% of its record plunge last night, gold continues to rise this morning, topping $1450. Silver is even more exuberant this morning testing up to post-crash-low highs around $23.90. What is more interesting is that for three days in a row, instead of the seemingly ubiquitous morning smackdown of precious metals, we have seen a sudden desperate demand for silver and gold in the US morning.
Silver is lagging gold's recovery for now...
Charts: Bloomberg
Ed Steer's Morning Report !
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/u.s.-mint-gold-sales-surge-to-highest-since-2009/
¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD & SILVER
Once gold began to trade in the Far East on their Wednesday, it didn't take long before ten bucks got tacked onto the price...and another five spot was added later in the Hong Kong afternoon going into the 8:00 a.m. BST London open.
Of course it got sold down after that, with the low in Europe coming about 12:30 p.m. in London...thirty minutes after the noon silver fix. The gold price rallied anew at the 8:20 a.m. Comex open, but that got cut off at the knees thirty minutes later. From there, gold got sold down to its New York low, which came minutes after 1:00 p.m. EDT. The subsequent rally lasted almost to the close of electronic trading...an event as rare as a blue moon.
The high tick of the day came around 8:50 a.m. Eastern time...and Kitco recorded that as $1,435.30 spot.
Gold closed on Wednesday at $1,431.50 spot...up $17.90 on the day. Surprisingly enough, gross volume was pretty light...at least comparatively speaking...at 'only' 152,000 contracts.
It was pretty much the same price pattern for silver in Far East trading on Wednesday...with the high tick of the day coming at 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time, which corresponded to the 8:00 a.m. London open.
Like gold, it was all down hill from there, with the low of the day coming at a slightly earlier than normal London silver fix. The subsequent rally ran into a not-for-profit seller at the London p.m. gold fix...10:00 a.m. in New York.
From there, silver got sold off until around 11:30 a.m. EDT...and more or less traded sideways from that point into the Comex close for silver, which is 1:25 p.m. in New York. Then away the price went to the upside until precisely 4:00 p.m. Eastern...and then it traded flat into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close.
From its low to its high, silver traded in a price range of just over 50 cents.
Silver closed yesterday at $23.16 spot...up 22 cents from Tuesday. Net volume, once all the roll-overs out of the May delivery month were subtracted, was a hair under 25,000 contracts....which wasn't a lot.
The dollar index closed on Tuesday at 83.02...and when it opened in Far East trading on Wednesday morning, immediately began to chop lower...and finished the Wednesday trading session in New York at 82.94...down 8 whole basis points. Nothing to see here.
* * *
The CME Daily Delivery Report, updated very late yesterday evening, showed that 98 gold and 3 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday within the Comex-approved depositories. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.
Another day, another decline in GLD. This time it was 'only' 135,398 troy ounces...and as of 10:13 p.m. EDT, there were no reported changes in SLV.
The U.S. Mint had another sales report yesterday. They sold a very chunky 13,000 ounces of gold eagles...along with a smallish 1,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and zero silver eagles.
Tuesday was a big day in silver over at the Comex-approved depositories, as they reported receiving a chunky 1,521,690 troy ounces of the stuff...and only shipped 17,637 troy ounces out the door. The link to that activity is here.
In gold there were more withdrawals from the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday. They reported receiving 852 troy ounces...and shipped 238,716 troy ounces out the door. You have to ask yourself where this gold is headed...and why. The link to that activity is here.
It was another 'quiet' day at the bullion store yesterday...with 'quiet' being a relative term compared to last week at this time. 'Quiet' will translate into another record year for the store if this keeps up...and we're sort of hoping that it doesn't get any busier, as we just can't handle over-the-top volume/traffic every day. Neither can the wholesalers or the mints...and they're still not taking orders, which is truly unprecedented in this industry. If it's this bad from our vantage point in the retail world, one can only imagine what it looks like from the wholesale/mint perspective.
At 8:30 p.m. yesterday evening, I fired off an e-mail to Bron Suchecki at The Perth Mint, where it was already 10:30 a.m. on Thursday morning...and asked him this question: "G'Day Bron...What's happening in Oz in the precious metals world that's fit to print in tomorrow's column?" Less than half an hour later I go this response...
Hi Ed,
With the [current production] issues at the RCM and US Mints, we are now starting to get hit with good orders from distributors, so we have prioritised manufacture of 1 oz. and kilo silver coins over our Lunar Snake coins so we can maximise the total amount of ounces we can supply. This is great news as that means more physical being taken off market.
That does lead me to the next point...which is buyers really need to go for the cheapest physical they can...and be a bit more flexible on who makes it...or go from coins to bars. Paying high premiums just because you want a certain brand or bar size just means your money buys less ounces, which takes less ounces off the market.
Regards,
Bron Suchecki
With the [current production] issues at the RCM and US Mints, we are now starting to get hit with good orders from distributors, so we have prioritised manufacture of 1 oz. and kilo silver coins over our Lunar Snake coins so we can maximise the total amount of ounces we can supply. This is great news as that means more physical being taken off market.
That does lead me to the next point...which is buyers really need to go for the cheapest physical they can...and be a bit more flexible on who makes it...or go from coins to bars. Paying high premiums just because you want a certain brand or bar size just means your money buys less ounces, which takes less ounces off the market.
Regards,
Bron Suchecki
And finally...here is commentary from Ross Norman over at the renowned SharpsPixley.comInternet site that was posted there yesterday...and this is courtesy of reader 'David in California'...
"There an oddity about GOLD at the moment with phenomenal physical demand in Asia, US and Europe, while the actual spot prices languishes. We have written before about the strange disconnect between paper and physical demand - with the former bearish yet the latter bullish - but rarely has there been such a clear divergence.
"Over the last few days on SharpsPixley.com we have many run stories about this ... Dubai running short of physical, US Mint selling out of smaller denomination bars, coins and bars flying off the shelves in India and China and queues outside leading gold sellers such as Degussa in Germany. The effect has been a massive drawdown in physical metal which has, by and large, caught the gold refineries and some stockists by surprise. It seems that the current buying in Europe is a delayed response to the Cyprus crisis, prompted by the price correction.
"Quite evidently it has been the sharp sell off on the gold futures (COMEX) a week ago that precipitated the price decline and drew out the physical buyers. While there remains stock of the traded inter-market London 'good delivery' bars weighing in at 400 ounces each (with a purity of 99.5%+), these would set an investor back about $570,000 each. However, for investment sized bars the market is drying up rapidly. Amongst the coins, the maples and Krugerrand are moving fast with premiums having just doubled and now typically trading at about 8% over the spot price. Meanwhile the wait for new 0.9999 kilobars from the refineries (cost about $48,000 each) would entail a wait of over 1 month - there are however some modest stocks of second-hand kilobars.
"While much of the buying in Europe has centered on Germany and Switzerland, there are also encouraging signs of good interest from UK retail investors who seem to be awakening to the notion of having gold in their savings. Google searches for the keyword "gold price" is rising to near record levels confirming what we are seeing in the markets.
"Quite evidently it has been the sharp sell off on the gold futures (COMEX) a week ago that precipitated the price decline and drew out the physical buyers. While there remains stock of the traded inter-market London 'good delivery' bars weighing in at 400 ounces each (with a purity of 99.5%+), these would set an investor back about $570,000 each. However, for investment sized bars the market is drying up rapidly. Amongst the coins, the maples and Krugerrand are moving fast with premiums having just doubled and now typically trading at about 8% over the spot price. Meanwhile the wait for new 0.9999 kilobars from the refineries (cost about $48,000 each) would entail a wait of over 1 month - there are however some modest stocks of second-hand kilobars.
"While much of the buying in Europe has centered on Germany and Switzerland, there are also encouraging signs of good interest from UK retail investors who seem to be awakening to the notion of having gold in their savings. Google searches for the keyword "gold price" is rising to near record levels confirming what we are seeing in the markets.
"So, what does this tell us about gold ? To us, this is firstly a clear signal that the price correction has sparked latent interest for those who have wanted to enter the market - the current price represents an excellent entry point. Secondly, the fact that investors are going for physical over paper gold extends the argument that investors are increasingly wary of financial institutions, just as they are of the debasement of currencies.
"In 2008 and 2010 the physical markets dried up and deliveries were extended out to about 2 or 3 months at the retail level - if the current buying persists there is every reason to expect a recurrence... or worse." END
"In 2008 and 2010 the physical markets dried up and deliveries were extended out to about 2 or 3 months at the retail level - if the current buying persists there is every reason to expect a recurrence... or worse." END
* * *
Selected news and views......
E.U. Austerity Dispute: How Barroso Let His Opinion Slip
European Commission President Barroso has mostly stayed in the background in the euro crisis, but his assertion this week that austerity has "reached its limits" caused quite a stir. It was an unusually opinionated statement -- and one that came after the Portuguese official's national pride was questioned.
Then there is European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, who has tried to ensure that he isn't perceived primarily as a Portuguese man. As the Commission's leader, he is expected to embody cross-border consensus more than any other. Since Monday, however, it seems possible that even Barroso doesn't always leave his national identity at the door.
In a think-tank dialogue in Brussels, Barroso cautiously criticized the austerity measures that the EU has so far imposed on the mainly Southern European members states in economic crisis. While the policy may be "fundamentally right," he said, it had "reached its limits." In the short-term, "a stronger emphasis on growth" is needed, he added.
This spiegel.de story from yesterday is courtesy of Roy Stephens.
‘I call it balancing the budget’: Merkel defiant as austerity criticism mounts
Angela Merkel tried to contain her irritation when asked at a podium discussion in Berlin this week whether southern European countries could take much more German-ordered austerity.
But the frustration in her voice was clear enough after a week in which several European allies broke ranks, and in a public challenge to Germany, effectively declared the era of deficit reduction in Europe to be over.
“I call it balancing the budget,” the German chancellor told her audience at a book presentation. “Everyone else is using this term austerity. That makes it sound like something truly evil.”
This Reuters story showed up on Canada's Financial Post website late Tuesday morning...and it's a little something I dug out of yesterday's edition of the King Report.
The Old Guard's Last Stand: Letta Asked to Form Italian Government
Enrico Letta has been tapped to lead Italy after being asked on Wednesday to form a government. Even though he is only 46 years old, he's still a representative of the old political caste and will have no choice but to work together with Silvio Berlusconi.
He did it. Within two days, Giorgio Napolitano, Italy's 87-year-old savior who was elected president on Saturday, laid the foundation for a new government through talks with representatives of the main parties. It is something the party leaders themselves couldn't manage to do in eight weeks.
As a result, the center-left Social Democrats (PD), together with Silvio Berlusconi's center-right People of Freedom (PDL) party, and the group around centrist incumbent Prime Minister Mario Monti, will form a broad coalition government under the leadership of the former Christian Democrat and current PD deputy leader Enrico Letta.
If I had $100 for every new government that Italy has had since the end of WWII, I would never have had to invest a nickel in precious metals...and would be have retired years ago. The story was posted on the German websitespiegel.de early yesterday evening Europe time...and it's another news item courtesy of Roy Stephens.
Crisis for Europe as trust hits record low
Public confidence in the European Union has fallen to historically low levels in the six biggest EU countries, raising fundamental questions about its democratic legitimacy more than three years into the union's worst ever crisis, new data shows.
After financial, currency and debt crises, wrenching budget and spending cuts, rich nations' bailouts of the poor, and surrenders of sovereign powers over policymaking to international technocrats, Euroscepticism is soaring to a degree that is likely to feed populist anti-EU politics and frustrate European leaders' efforts to arrest the collapse in support for their project.
Figures from Eurobarometer, the EU's polling organisation, analysed by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, show a vertiginous decline in trust in the EU in countries such as Spain, Germany and Italy that are historically very pro-European.
The six countries surveyed – Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Spain, and Poland – are the EU's biggest, jointly making up more than two out of three EU citizens or around 350 million of the EU's 500 million population.
I'm sure that Nigel Farage will be absolutely beaming with happiness when he reads this piece...which appeared in The Guardian late yesterday evening BST...and it's another offering from Roy Stephens.
Euro may only last five years, says senior German government advisor
In notably outspoken remarks for a senior German figure, Dr Konrad, chairman of a scientific council that advises the finance ministry, said: “Europe is important to me. Not the euro. And I would only give the euro a limited chance of survival.”
Asked whether he thought the single currency would last five years, the economist said: “A concrete period is hard to identify as it depends on so many factors. But five years sounds realistic.”
This pessimistic judgment by a senior adviser runs counter to the official German government view that the euro must be held together for the sake of unity in Europe. Dr Konrad’s remarks came in an interview with the newspaperWelt am Sonntag, on the debt crisis in Europe.
The economic adviser warned that: “No country can pile up debt without running the risk that their investors will pull the plug. It’s in each [country’s] interests to keep their own debts as small as possible.
This story appeared on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site mid-afternoon BST yesterday...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for finding it for us.
Four King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews
1. Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: "Former U.S. Treasury Official - Fed Desperate to Stop Collapse". 2. John Embry: "Panic in the Gold Market Creating Problems for Shorts". 3. Jim Sinclair: "This is the Beginning of the End For the Gold Shorts". 4. The audio interview is with Gerald Celente.
Texas U fund sold gold in February, bought gold futures and equities
The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the third-largest U.S. academic endowment, sold $375 million in gold bars from holdings of about $1.4 billion and reinvested the proceeds in gold futures and equities.
In the three months that ended Feb. 28, the Austin, Texas- based fund bought $75 million in gold futures, $225 million in developed- market equities and $75 million in emerging-market equity futures, Bruce Zimmerman, the chief executive officer, said today in a telephone interview.
The fund, which manages $29.2 billion, started taking delivery of gold through futures contracts starting in 2008 as a hedge against inflation, Zimmerman said. While fund managers and directors remain concerned that global consumer prices may increase, the fund wanted to increase investments in equities, he said.
Well, it's a good bet that they got blown out of the gold futures position on the Comex along with everyone else last week. They deserve what they got. ThisBloomberg story, filed from Austin, Texas...was something that I dug out of a GATA release from yesterday.
Barrick Gold cuts spending, may suspend troubled Pascua-Lama project
Facing sliding prices for gold and its shares as well as a shareholder revolt on executive pay, the top brass at Barrick Gold Corp. vowed Wednesday to cut costs and take a hard look at the company's operations.
Executives of the worlds biggest gold mining company revealed plans to cut at least US$500 million from spending on major projects this year, and may consider suspending work at its troubled Pascua-Lama development in South America.
"I can assure you that everyone within Barrick shares your disappointment over the share price performance and we will do everything we can to reverse that," president and chief executive officer Jamie Sokalsky told shareholders at the company's annual general meeting, held at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
I don't normally post stories about individual gold mining companies, but when it involves the Darth Vader of gold companies, I'll make an exception. This news item showed up on thestar.com Internet site yesterday...and is worth your time.
¤ THE WRAP
False is the idea of utility that sacrifices a thousand real advantages for one imaginary or trifling inconvenience; that would take fire from men because it burns, and water because one may drown in it; that has no remedy for evils except destruction. The laws that forbid the carrying of arms are laws of such a nature. They disarm only those who are neither inclined nor determined to commit crimes. -- Cesare Beccaria, as quoted by Thomas Jefferson's Commonplace Book
The situation is so fluid in the precious metal markets at the moment that it's hard to get a 'big picture' perspective. The only ones in the know would be the Big 3 bullion banks...and their associated partners-in-crime at the Fed, the Treasury, the Exchange Stabilization Fund...and the BIS. All we can do is sift through the clues that are left hanging around...whether it be in the Comex inventories...or the GLD and SLV ETFs. I don't consider the latest COT Report to be of any use, because it's obvious [at least to me] that the data in the Commercial and Non-Commercial categories is bogus. But if the data in the Nonreportable category can be used as a guide, the real data in these other two categories would be one for the record books...and still may be a work in progress by JPMorgan et al.
There's no way of knowing for sure, of course...and any comments that I [and others] may have, would certainly fall into the speculative category...even if it consists of an educated guess. Whatever is going on behind the scenes will become public knowledge when "da Boyz" deem it necessary...or when the physical or paper markets force their hand.
It has always been said that the precious metal equities will always forewarn of a pending move in the gold price, as the 'smart money'...which I call insider trading...take their positions for the next move up. I'd like to think/hope/pray that yesterday was a precursor to that event...but only time will tell.
All four precious metals caught a bid in the Globex session in early Far East trading on their Thursday, but silver got smacked back down to almost unchanged by the time that London opened. Volumes are about the same as Wednesday at this time of day. Most gold volume is of the high-frequency trading variety...but surprisingly enough, there is big roll-over action in silver as the large players have to be out of their May positions [unless they're standing for delivery] by the end of the day...or possibly Friday at the latest. The dollar index isn't doing a lot as of 4:13 a.m. Eastern time.
And as I hit the 'send' button at 5:15 a.m. Eastern time, gold is still trading flat after its rally in the Far East...and is up about fifteen bucks from Wednesday's close...and silver is up fourteen cents. Because of that lack of price action, volumes are only slightly above what they were an hour or so ago. The dollar index is now down about 27 basis points.
We certainly do live in interesting times...and the rest of the month's trading/price activity could get interesting.
That's more than enough for today...and I'll see you here tomorrow.
Gold and Silver evening wrap up !
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/just-what-going-gold-jpmorgans-vault
Just What Is Going On With The Gold In JPMorgan's Vault?
We know that back in early October 2010, when gold closed at a then record high of $1,320, JPM decided to reopen its previously mothballed precious metal vault due to soaring demand for metal vaulting, thus becoming only the fifth official Comex private gold depository in New York in addition to HSBC, Bank of Nova Scotia, Brinks and MTB (and of course the New York Fed).
We also know, courtesy of a Zero Hedge exclusive, that the JPM vault - the largest private gold vault in the world - is located at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, and is literally adjacent to the vault of the New York Fed 80 feet, and 5 sublevels, below street level.
We know that for a long time the vault held around 2.5 million ounces of eligible (commercial) gold, a number which declined only gradually until very recently.
We know that the total amount of registered (investment) gold has been steady for the past 4 years (after peaking in early 2006).
Finally, everyone knows that in the past month gold has experienced a very severe move lower which is still largely unexplained.
What many may not know, is that while registered Comex gold has been flat, the amount of eligible gold in Comex warehouses (the distinction between eligible and registered gold can be found here) in the past several weeks has plunged from nearly 9 million ounces, to just 6.1 million ounces as of today- the lowest since mid-2009.
What nobody knows, is why virtually the entire move in warehoused eligible gold is driven exclusively by one firm: JPMorgan, whose eligible gold has collapse from just under 2 million ounces as of the end of 2012 to a nearly record low 402,374 ounces as of today, a drop of 20% in one day, though slightly higher compared to the recent record low hit on April 5 when JPM warehoused commercial gold touched a post-vault reopening low of just over 4 tons, or 142,700 ounces.
This happened just days ahead of the biggest ever one-day gold slam down in history.
Some questions we would like answers to:
- What happened to the commercial gold vaulted with JPM, and what was the reason for the historic drawdown?
- Gold, unlike fiat, is not created out of thin air, nor can it be shred or deleted. Where did the gold leaving the JPM warehouse end up (especially since registered JPM and total Comex gold has been relatively flat over the same period)?
- Did any of this gold make its way across the street, and end up at the vault of the building located at 33 Liberty street?
- What happens if and/or when the JPM vault is empty of commercial gold, and JPM receives a delivery notice?
Inquiring minds want to know...
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/04/silver-and-gold-risesilver-oi-rises-to.html
( Another four tons of gold leave the GLD ETF today ..... And the gold drawdowns at Comex continue apace....
)
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Silver and gold rise/silver OI rises to 158,970/comex gold declines again/German confidence falls again/More Brits receiving food handouts/Potential new PM in Italy/
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed up $14.80 to $1423.40 (comex closing time). Silver rose by 2 cents to $22.83 (comex closing time).
In the access market at 5 pm gold and silver reversed course and rose northbound:
gold: $1431.90
silver: $23.20
At the comex, the open interest in silver rose sharply by 1,706 contracts to 158,970 contracts as it is still holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the gold contract fell by 1507 contracts to 415.074. The total amount of gold ounces standing for April rose slightly to 34.36 tonnes as silver remained constant at 3,770,000 oz.
Over at the gold comex inventories we witnessed another huge withdrawal. Tonight the dealer (registered gold) rests at 2.21 million oz or 68.74 tonnes. I cannot recall this level being so low. The total of all gold at the comex drops to 8.345 million oz or 259.56 tonnes.
In other physical news, the British Royal Mint announced that sales of gold coins are running triple to that of last month.
we have a report from India which shows that Indian gold premiums have been rising fast as demand outstrips supply.
In paper news, big German confidence index the ZEW registered a fall today.
It did not matter, the German Dax was up as was all of European bourses.
In Italy, we have a new Prime Minister, Letta who will try and form a coalition government from all sides. We have two commentaries on this issue.
In England we have a report where there is a huge 170% increase to Brits needing food handouts.
In the USA March durable goods imploded. The USA has now entered a severe recession.
We will go over these and other stories but first.........................
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today:
The total gold comex open interest fell by 1507 contracts today from 416,581 down to 415,074, with gold falling by $12.40 on Tuesday. The front April OI fell by 11 contracts from 559 down to 548. We had 11 notices filed on Tuesday so we gained 33 contracts or 3300 oz of additional gold which will be standing for the April gold contract month. The next non active contract month is May and here the OI rose by 69 contracts to 1471. The next big contract month is June and here the OI fell by 3755 contracts from 255,004 down to 251,249. The estimated volume today was fair at 130,206. The confirmed volume on Tuesday was huge at 239937 contracts (approx 746 tonnes of gold).
The total silver comex OI astonishingly rose by 1706 contracts from 157,264 up to 158,970 despite silver's fall yesterday. It still looks like we still have some stoic longs who seem impervious to pain as the OI in silver continues to remain elevated despite the constant whacking of this metal. The front non active delivery month of April saw its OI fall by 11 contracts from 26 down to 15 . We had 11 delivery notices filed on Tuesday, so in essence we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing for delivery in April. The next big delivery month for silver is May and here the OI fell by 3625 contracts to stand at 35,335. We are less than 1 week away from first day notice for the May silver delivery month. The estimated volume today was huge, coming in at 92009 contracts which equates close to 460 million oz of silver. The world produces 700 million oz per year ex China ex Russia so in essence today's volume equates to 65.7% of annual silver production. We had confirmed volume on Tuesday at 115,417 contracts which is a huge volume day . (.577 billion oz or 82.4% of annual silver production)
Gold closed up $14.80 to $1423.40 (comex closing time). Silver rose by 2 cents to $22.83 (comex closing time).
In the access market at 5 pm gold and silver reversed course and rose northbound:
gold: $1431.90
silver: $23.20
At the comex, the open interest in silver rose sharply by 1,706 contracts to 158,970 contracts as it is still holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the gold contract fell by 1507 contracts to 415.074. The total amount of gold ounces standing for April rose slightly to 34.36 tonnes as silver remained constant at 3,770,000 oz.
Over at the gold comex inventories we witnessed another huge withdrawal. Tonight the dealer (registered gold) rests at 2.21 million oz or 68.74 tonnes. I cannot recall this level being so low. The total of all gold at the comex drops to 8.345 million oz or 259.56 tonnes.
In other physical news, the British Royal Mint announced that sales of gold coins are running triple to that of last month.
we have a report from India which shows that Indian gold premiums have been rising fast as demand outstrips supply.
In paper news, big German confidence index the ZEW registered a fall today.
It did not matter, the German Dax was up as was all of European bourses.
In Italy, we have a new Prime Minister, Letta who will try and form a coalition government from all sides. We have two commentaries on this issue.
In England we have a report where there is a huge 170% increase to Brits needing food handouts.
In the USA March durable goods imploded. The USA has now entered a severe recession.
We will go over these and other stories but first.........................
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today:
The total gold comex open interest fell by 1507 contracts today from 416,581 down to 415,074, with gold falling by $12.40 on Tuesday. The front April OI fell by 11 contracts from 559 down to 548. We had 11 notices filed on Tuesday so we gained 33 contracts or 3300 oz of additional gold which will be standing for the April gold contract month. The next non active contract month is May and here the OI rose by 69 contracts to 1471. The next big contract month is June and here the OI fell by 3755 contracts from 255,004 down to 251,249. The estimated volume today was fair at 130,206. The confirmed volume on Tuesday was huge at 239937 contracts (approx 746 tonnes of gold).
The total silver comex OI astonishingly rose by 1706 contracts from 157,264 up to 158,970 despite silver's fall yesterday. It still looks like we still have some stoic longs who seem impervious to pain as the OI in silver continues to remain elevated despite the constant whacking of this metal. The front non active delivery month of April saw its OI fall by 11 contracts from 26 down to 15 . We had 11 delivery notices filed on Tuesday, so in essence we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing for delivery in April. The next big delivery month for silver is May and here the OI fell by 3625 contracts to stand at 35,335. We are less than 1 week away from first day notice for the May silver delivery month. The estimated volume today was huge, coming in at 92009 contracts which equates close to 460 million oz of silver. The world produces 700 million oz per year ex China ex Russia so in essence today's volume equates to 65.7% of annual silver production. We had confirmed volume on Tuesday at 115,417 contracts which is a huge volume day . (.577 billion oz or 82.4% of annual silver production)
Comex gold/April contract month:
April 24.2013 April gold.
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
70,767.144 (Scotia)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
167,948.938 (HSBC,JPM, Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
852.17 (Brinks)
No of oz served (contracts) today
42 (4,200 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
517 (51,700) oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,499 (1,049,900 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
97,251.28 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
775,832.03 oz
We had huge activity at the gold vaults.
The dealer had 0 deposits and 1 major dealer withdrawal.
i) Out of the Scotia warehouse a huge 70,767.144 ounces of gold was withdrawn from the dealer and out of all registered comex vaults.
We had 1 tiny customer deposits:
i) Into Brinks: 852.17 oz
total customer deposit: 852.17 oz
We had 3 customer withdrawals two of which were huge :
i) Out of JPM: 103,556.84 oz
ii) Out of HSBC: 199.19 oz
iii) Out of Scotia: 64,192.905
total customer withdrawal: 167,948.938 oz (5.22 tonnes of gold removed)
We had 0 adjustments:
The following is very scary!!!
Thus the dealer inventory rests tonight at 2.210 million oz (68.74) tonnes of gold.
The total of all gold declines again at the comex and rests at 8.345 million oz or 266.9 tonnes.
I cannot recall seeing the registered or dealer inventory in gold this low.
The comex is slowly losing all of its gold.
The CME reported that we had 271 notices filed for 27,100 oz of gold today. The total number of notices so far this month is thus 10,770 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 1,077,000 oz of gold. In order to establish what will be the total number of gold ounces standing, I take the OI for April (548) and subtract out Wednesday's delivery notices (271) which leaves us with 277 contracts or 27,700 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal:
1,077,000 (served) + 27,700 oz (left to be served upon ) = 1,104,700 oz or
34.36 tonnes of gold.
we gained 3300 oz of gold standing for the April gold contract. This is turning out to be a very big delivery month!1
Dave from Denver talks about the gold drain:
"Another 237,873 ozs of gold drained from the Comex yesterday. 70k from the registered/deliverable account and 167k from the eligible/not-deliverable account. The eligible account is down to 6.1mm ozs. I can't recall ever seeing it this low, although I'm sure it was at some point in history.
When you put that in the context of the data I sent around yesterday showing the ratios of gold contract open interest vs. the amount of deliverable gold, what's happening at the Comex is quite interesting - almost spooky - especially in light of this commentary: http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-physical-drain-accelerates-with-over-7-8b-disappearing-from-all-depositories/
In other words, it's not just on the Comex where visible stockpiles of gold are disappearing: "One element of truth remains, which is that gold always tells the truth. If it gets up and moves from location to another, you can bet there’s a reason for it" (from the link)
***
Silver:
April 24.2013: April silver:
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory 9507.000 (Brinks) Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 8,130.938 ( Delaware) Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil Deposits to the Customer Inventory 1,521,690.191 (CNT, JPM, Brinks) No of oz served (contracts) 0 contracts (nil oz) No of oz to be served (notices) 15 (75,000 oz) Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 739 (3,695,000 oz) Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month 2,482,588.4 oz Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month 4,721,768.3 oz
Today, we had huge activity inside the silver vaults.
we had 0 dealer deposits and 1 dealer withdrawals.
Out of Brinks: another of those perfectly round withdrawals, 9507.0000 oz leaves the dealer
We had 3 customer deposits:
i) Into CNT: 597.191.600 oz
ii) Into Brinks: 351,279.500 oz
iii) Into JPM; 573,219.091 oz
Total deposits: 1,521,690.191 oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal:
i) Into Delaware: 8,130.938 oz
total customer withdrawal: 8,130.938 oz
we had 0 adjustments:
Registered silver at : 39.137 million oz
total of all silver: 167.317 million oz.
The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed for nil oz of silver for the non active contract month of April. In order to calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand, I take the OI for April silver (15) and subtract out Wednesday's notices (0) which leaves us with 15 notices or 75,000 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non active delivery month of April is as follows:
3,695,000 oz served + 75,000 oz to be served = 3,770,000 oz
Ounces
| |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
|
70,767.144 (Scotia)
|
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
|
167,948.938 (HSBC,JPM, Scotia)
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
| 852.17 (Brinks) |
No of oz served (contracts) today
|
42 (4,200 oz)
|
No of oz to be served (notices)
|
517 (51,700) oz
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
|
10,499 (1,049,900 oz)
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
|
97,251.28 oz
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
| 775,832.03 oz |
We had huge activity at the gold vaults.
The dealer had 0 deposits and 1 major dealer withdrawal.
i) Out of the Scotia warehouse a huge 70,767.144 ounces of gold was withdrawn from the dealer and out of all registered comex vaults.
i) Out of the Scotia warehouse a huge 70,767.144 ounces of gold was withdrawn from the dealer and out of all registered comex vaults.
We had 1 tiny customer deposits:
i) Into Brinks: 852.17 oz
total customer deposit: 852.17 oz
We had 3 customer withdrawals two of which were huge :
i) Out of JPM: 103,556.84 oz
ii) Out of HSBC: 199.19 oz
iii) Out of Scotia: 64,192.905
total customer withdrawal: 167,948.938 oz (5.22 tonnes of gold removed)
i) Into Brinks: 852.17 oz
total customer deposit: 852.17 oz
We had 3 customer withdrawals two of which were huge :
i) Out of JPM: 103,556.84 oz
ii) Out of HSBC: 199.19 oz
iii) Out of Scotia: 64,192.905
total customer withdrawal: 167,948.938 oz (5.22 tonnes of gold removed)
We had 0 adjustments:
The following is very scary!!!
The following is very scary!!!
Thus the dealer inventory rests tonight at 2.210 million oz (68.74) tonnes of gold.
The total of all gold declines again at the comex and rests at 8.345 million oz or 266.9 tonnes.
I cannot recall seeing the registered or dealer inventory in gold this low.
The comex is slowly losing all of its gold.
The total of all gold declines again at the comex and rests at 8.345 million oz or 266.9 tonnes.
I cannot recall seeing the registered or dealer inventory in gold this low.
The comex is slowly losing all of its gold.
The CME reported that we had 271 notices filed for 27,100 oz of gold today. The total number of notices so far this month is thus 10,770 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 1,077,000 oz of gold. In order to establish what will be the total number of gold ounces standing, I take the OI for April (548) and subtract out Wednesday's delivery notices (271) which leaves us with 277 contracts or 27,700 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal:
1,077,000 (served) + 27,700 oz (left to be served upon ) = 1,104,700 oz or
34.36 tonnes of gold.
we gained 3300 oz of gold standing for the April gold contract. This is turning out to be a very big delivery month!1
Dave from Denver talks about the gold drain:
When you put that in the context of the data I sent around yesterday showing the ratios of gold contract open interest vs. the amount of deliverable gold, what's happening at the Comex is quite interesting - almost spooky - especially in light of this commentary: http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-physical-drain-accelerates-with-over-7-8b-disappearing-from-all-depositories/
In other words, it's not just on the Comex where visible stockpiles of gold are disappearing: "One element of truth remains, which is that gold always tells the truth. If it gets up and moves from location to another, you can bet there’s a reason for it" (from the link)
***
Silver:
April 24.2013: April silver:
| Silver |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | 9507.000 (Brinks) |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 8,130.938 ( Delaware) |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,521,690.191 (CNT, JPM, Brinks) |
| No of oz served (contracts) | 0 contracts (nil oz) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 15 (75,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 739 (3,695,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | 2,482,588.4 oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 4,721,768.3 oz |
Today, we had huge activity inside the silver vaults.
we had 0 dealer deposits and 1 dealer withdrawals.
Out of Brinks: another of those perfectly round withdrawals, 9507.0000 oz leaves the dealer
We had 3 customer deposits:
i) Into CNT: 597.191.600 oz
ii) Into Brinks: 351,279.500 oz
iii) Into JPM; 573,219.091 oz
Total deposits: 1,521,690.191 oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal:
i) Into Delaware: 8,130.938 oz
total customer withdrawal: 8,130.938 oz
Out of Brinks: another of those perfectly round withdrawals, 9507.0000 oz leaves the dealer
We had 3 customer deposits:
i) Into CNT: 597.191.600 oz
ii) Into Brinks: 351,279.500 oz
iii) Into JPM; 573,219.091 oz
Total deposits: 1,521,690.191 oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal:
i) Into Delaware: 8,130.938 oz
total customer withdrawal: 8,130.938 oz
we had 0 adjustments:
Registered silver at : 39.137 million oz
total of all silver: 167.317 million oz.
The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed for nil oz of silver for the non active contract month of April. In order to calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand, I take the OI for April silver (15) and subtract out Wednesday's notices (0) which leaves us with 15 notices or 75,000 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non active delivery month of April is as follows:
3,695,000 oz served + 75,000 oz to be served = 3,770,000 oz
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non active delivery month of April is as follows:
3,695,000 oz served + 75,000 oz to be served = 3,770,000 oz
we neither gained nor lost any silver ounces standing in the April contract month.
This is also turning out to be a very good delivery schedule for what is usually a quiet month as April is a non active month for silver.
This is also turning out to be a very good delivery schedule for what is usually a quiet month as April is a non active month for silver.
April 24.2013
April 23.2013
Tonnes1,092.98
Ounces35,140,313.66
Value US$50.177 billion
April 23.2013
Tonnes1,097.19
Ounces35,275,711.20
Value US$49.648 billion
Selected news items.....
April 24, 2013 | By Tekoa Da Silva
As the headline battle between paper sellers and physical buyers of gold escalates, something eerily strange is continuing behind the scenes.
As first reported here on April 9th, Comex gold inventories have been plummeting, demonstrating the highest levels of physical removal ever during a single quarter in Q1, 2013.
Most shocking however, is that Comex warehouse inventories are accelerating their downward plunge, with dropping inventories now spreading to the world’s largest fund depositories.
Over the last four weeks alone, total reported inventories of ETFs, funds, and depositories collapsed by over 5.5 million ounces, or in dollar terms, by over $7,000,000,000 dollars.
The largest physical removals were reported by the Comex at about 1.4 million ounces, or nearly $2 billion dollars, and the GLD, which reported total inventory removal of nearly 4 million ounces, or roughly over $5.6 billion dollars.
Here is a chart illustrating the continued gold inventory plunge at Comex warehouses (see initial April 9th. piece for comparison):
(click to enlarge)
Individual reporting by the world’s largest funds and depositories show a spreading phenomenon, with Comex and GLD sticking out like sore thumbs…
(click to enlarge)
This brings to mind important questions, such as…
-Why is there such a panic going on to remove physical gold from Comex registered warehouses and other depositories?
-Why did it begin before the collapse, and why does it now appear to be accelerating?
-Why is the multi-trillion dollar fund management industry denouncing gold, while it quickly moves inventory out of registered warehouses?
-Where is the gold moving, and what is it telling us?
-Is this wholesale migration signaling an imminent geopolitical or major market event?
—
Bottom Line: These are difficult questions to answer, however, one element of truth remains, which is that gold always tells the truth. If it gets up and moves from location to another, you can bet there’s a reason for it.
Furthermore, Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass is know for having stated that,“We went and looked at the Comex…[they had] $80B in open interest and $2.7B (3.3%) in deliverables at the time…[so] it’s actually an easy decision if you’re a fiduciary…you go get [your gold], and let them worry about the rest.”
–
Enjoy the article? Please support the site by sharing this URL page link with friends, family, and your favorite chat forum.
Thanks,
Tekoa Da Silva
Bull Market Thinking
Photo source.
Silver analyst, Jason Hamlin:
(courtesy Jason Hamlin)
Worldwide Silver Shortage as Premiums Reach 40%
Jason Hamlin
COMEX silver prices once again dipped below $23 today. My previous article entitled Ignore COMEX Pricing - Silver Eagles Sold Out at Dealers, $33 on Ebay detailed just how divorced from reality the COMEX price has become. So with another dip Tuesday, I decided to try to get my hands on some more silver coins. I realized before I picked up the phone that it would be difficult, but I have a few dealers in Colorado and California that have consistently been able to find supply at reasonable premiums.
Not anymore. The first phone call that I made was to one of the largest bullion dealers in Southern California, where I have bought a good deal of my physical gold and silver over the past decade. In fact, I had just bought several rolls of silver eagle coins from them last month at around $2.65 over spot price per ounce. I also purchased some for a family member back in January and paid the same premium.
In the past when some analysts were talking about a supply shortage and rising premiums, I was always able to find supply from this particular shop with a reasonable premium that was never more than 10% over the spot price. But today I was told that I could only order for future delivery at some point in late May or June and that the premium was $5 over the spot price.
18,864 people received this article by email alert
Add your email to get alerts on SLV too:
Get email alerts on SLV »
This article was sent to 249,574 people who get the Macro View newsletter. Get the Macro View newsletter » 
In just the past few weeks the premium has nearly DOUBLED, despite the silver price dropping sharply and investor sentiment supposedly at multi-year lows. The manager of the shop told me the silver shortage was worldwide and it was more difficult than ever to secure supply and keep up with demand.
Not one to give up so easily, I proceeded to call a friend and colleague that runs Cornerstone Bullion out of Denver, Colorado. I have purchased bullion from Chad in person several times and have recommended his services to my readers. He has always been able to find supply for me and while the premiums have fluctuated, they have consistently remained within a few percentage points of the lowest-priced online dealers. This was his reply:
Most everything is shipping early June from the Mint. Premiums are $4.99-5.50 right now, depending on quantity. It's pretty crazy out there right now. Junk silver is $5-6 over spot!
I then went online to Tulving.com to see if they had replenished stocks, but all of their popular silver bullion products remain 'Sold Out' including silver eagles. APMEX appears to have inventory, but they are asking around $31 per silver eagle or roughly $8 over spot price. That is a premium of 36% to the spot price.
eBay (EBAY) prices are even higher at around $32 per ounce for silver eagles or $9 over spot price. This is a premium of roughly 40%! Silver eagles from a few years back are selling for $700 or more per roll of 20, which is $12 over the spot price and a premium of more than 50%.
While those trading derivative paper contracts of silver might want you to believe that the price has dropped to $23 per ounce, the real world pricing is quite a different story. If someone has the funds and ability to take delivery from the COMEX anywhere near the current price levels, wouldn't they be doing it?
Not exactly. Several wealthy investors have been reporting that they have been unable to take delivery and are being forced to settle in cash. This action has led many to believe that the physical gold and silver may no longer be in the warehouses.Whatever the truth may be, the disconnect between paper prices and free-market real-world prices has never been greater. There is definitely something strange happening in order to create an environment where increasing demand and supply shortages somehow results in lower prices. This breaks the most fundamental economic law of supply and demand, supporting claims by GATA and others that gold and silver prices are being manipulated.
One way to purchase gold and silver at the artificially low prices is to purchase shares of the Central Fund of Canada (CEF). The fund has been around since 1961 and holds 95% or more of its assets in unencumbered, segregated and insured, passive long-term holdings of gold and silver bullion. Bullion holdings and bank vault security are inspected twice annually by directors and/or officers of Central Fund. On every occasion, inspections are required to be performed in the presence of both Central Fund's external auditors and bank personnel. Central Fund's chief executive comments:
Our bullion is stored in separate cages, with the name of the owner printed on the cage, and on top of each pallet of bullion it states Central Fund or Central Gold-Trust. This disables the bank from using the asset for any of their purposes. We also pay Lloyds of London for coverage of any possible loss.
The Central Fund of Canada almost always trades at a premium to its net asset value, sometimes as high as 20% over. But shares are currently trading at a discount. This is a rare occurrence for CEF and allows individuals to invest in physical precious metals at or near COMEX pricing. If history repeats, CEF will be bouncing back to a hefty premium in the near future as precious metals rebound. While it is not the same as having the metals in your possession, I view it as the next best thing and think the recent sell off is providing an excellent opportunity to establish or add to positions.This growing divide between the paper silver price and real-world price will have to narrow at some point soon. The more big-money investors realize the huge price gap and act on it, the faster the gap will close or soon COMEX will default or go broke from offering hefty cash incentives to investors to dissuade them from taking delivery. In the meantime, if anyone can find me some silver eagles anywhere near the COMEX price, I have a boatload.
Written by Jeff NielsonWednesday, 24 April 2013 13:23
Recent, previous commentaries have focused on the massive liquidation in the paper-gold market; as large investors (in large numbers) have fled that paper in favor of real metal. It has now been established that this flight out of the paper-gold market was in response to theCyprus Steal – and at least to some extent has been a choreographed event.
Naturally this had led to a question from readers: what about the silver market? Indeed, while the silver market has also seen the price for paper-silver plunge; there has been no corresponding liquidation of paper-silver. So what is going on here?
Regular readers have already supplied their own answer to this question, in their mail and in their comments on our Forum: yet another “manipulation operation” in the silver market. When any market exhibits some violent move in prices for no reason; we are justified in suspecting manipulation. When any market exhibits violent price-moves for no reason on a regular basis; we are justified in concluding that manipulation is taking place.
Such has been the case in the silver market not simply for years but for decades. The primary whistle-blower in the precious metals sector has been GATA; the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. However, despite its original focus on the gold market it has spent increasing time/energy focusing on the silver market – drawn by the especially blatant/egregious evidence present there.
[chart courtesy of Nick Laird, sharelynx.com]
What the chart above illustrates is not a recent phenomenon, or a temporary aberration. It is a permanent, heavy-handed club; being used by the same handful of bullion-banks to perpetually beat-down the silver market.
In both its size and its concentration; it represents a significantly more extreme position in the market than that of the Hunt Brothers – when they were convicted (in 1980) of manipulating the silver market. By itself, it is conclusive evidence of silver manipulation.
Those readers interested in a more detailed, long-term examination of silver-manipulation can refer to an older commentary: Fifty Years Of Suppressing Silver. And for those readers interested in even more historical insights into the silver market there is The Silver Stealers; a detailed chronology of the silver market by Charles Savoie.
Returning to the present, we have a silver market which was already severely depressed, where inventories had already suffered long-term decimation, and where demand remains robust; suddenly plunging lower for absolutely no reason. Defenders of market-manipulation will suggest this was a “sympathetic reaction” to the gold market…except it wasn’t.
Unlike the gold market; there has been no paper-liquidation in the silver market. In fact, while holdings of paper-gold have been plummeting, holdings of paper-silver have been steadily rising. You can’t have a “sympathetic reaction” occurring between markets with opposite dynamics.
So with holdings of paper-silver rising, with demand for physical silver remaining solid, and with there being no “sympathetic reaction” with the gold market; we have the silver market plunging lower for absolutely no reason. Manipulation.
However, the bullion-banks who operate this silver-manipulation scheme are nothing if not obvious. For those readers still skeptical of the notion of market-manipulation – despite all of the financial corruption all around us – the banksters have (as usual) “left their fingerprints” at the scene of the crime.
At Kitco Metals, inquiring minds can see a series of charts like the one below, corresponding with each of the different time periods in the silver “leasing” market:
Much like the recent margin-hike by the CME group telegraphed a deliberate intention to push bullion prices lower; negative lease rates are a virtual signed-confession. Not only does paying traders to borrow silver (and short it onto the market) lead to the market being temporarily/briefly flooded with silver; but the negative lease-rates themselves have become like a “clarion call” to these predators that another bankster operation is underway in the silver market.
What must be at least quickly noted is the strange aberration in the chart above: the very brief and seemingly inexplicable “spike” where lease rates momentarily inched back into positive territory.
One can only engage in conjecture here. However, given that the spike occurred at precisely the same time that precious metals markets began their (staged) “crash”; there is a theory consistent with all these facts. Despite the bullion-banks trying to pay traders to short silver for them (with their negative lease-rates); there were so many “shorts” lining-up at that time that massive demand drove rates back into positive territory in spite of the banksters’ intentions.
We know this could only be massive demand to short silver because of the price action: if these traders had all (or mostly) been leasing silver to go long; prices would have inevitably risen rather than fallen.
Readers need to understand that commentaries of this nature are not intended to frighten them away from the silver market; indeed, they should hopefully have precisely the opposite effect. We have a commodity which is highly coveted by both investors and industrial users, where obvious evidence of price-suppression means we can buy this asset at wonderful “sale” prices.
But what about the manipulation, ask cautious investors? My response to that concern has always been the same: low prices lead to high prices. In the 1990’s; ruthless price-suppression in the silver market drove prices to a 600-year low (in real dollars) – below $4/oz. What did that lead to?
First it led to the extermination of nearly all the world’s silver miners, decimating supply. Simultaneously, the artificially low price for silver led to an explosion in industrial demand – in hundreds of new applications. The simultaneous effect of those two changes was to cause silver inventories to plummet by 90% between 1990 and 2005.
And where did that lead us? To $49/oz in 2011. More specifically, it was the major “operation” in the silver market during the Crash of ’08 – where silver was momentarily tugged below $10/oz near the end of 2008 – which led to the short-term peak of $49/oz in the spring of 2011.
We see a similar, if not identical picture today. What was/is necessary to take the price of silverabove $100/oz (to something approaching a current “fair-market value”)? Dragging the price all the way back down close to $20/oz. Low prices lead to high prices.
Naturally, this ties in with a piece of “good advice” which investors heeded, once upon a time: buy low, sell high. The time for investors to be buying silver is not when prices are soaring higher in yet another meteoric rise. The time to buy is after or even during another bankster Operation in the silver market.
Yes, (as with anything) investors must address the fact that prices could still go lower first. This is why investors (unlike gamblers) do not use margin/leverage in their financial management. However, if prices do go even lower in the short term; supply and demand tells us this means even higher prices in the not-too-distant future.
Buy low and sell high. Ironically, the serial-manipulation of the silver market actually makes this philosophy especially easy to practice for investors. When we see (via prices) that silver is obviously “on sale”, and we see (via bankster behavior) that these are obviously artificial prices; investors then have their cue to buy.
Demand still booming for the ole relic .....
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=187200&sn=Detail
Gold bars in Dubai disappear, some at 750% premiums
The desire to own gold, as an investment and for jewellery purposes, has made itself felt in the physical market in India and in Dubai, where premiums are ruling at an all time high.
To cash in on the investor frenzy, gold dealers in Dubai have raised their premiums to 750%, given the prevailing uncertainties over the global economy.
Renowned for its role as the best place in the world to buy gold, Dubai has had an impromptu gold festival under way. The Dubai market is dominated by Indians.
While some traders are selling gold bars at a premium of $50 per ounce, others are pushing mark ups as high as 750% above normal, say retailers.
Most gold traders are reluctant to release more gold into the market as they expect prices to peak as demand increases. Right now, Dubai is facing a shortage of gold.
After scaling an all time high of $1,924 per ounce in September 2011, the precious metal slid to $1,335 on April 16 - a decline of 30% from its peak. That has got shoppers in a frenzy in Dubai.
The majority of shoppers queuing up in front of jewellery stores, mostly in the Meena Bazaar and the gold souk (market) areas in Dubai are Indians, with a sizeable segment hailing from Kerala.
Dubai merchants say sales have jumped by 400% following the recent price plunge. The consumption pattern reflects typical Indian preferences.
The majority of Indian consumers in Dubai do not prefer paper gold in the form of exchange traded funds (ETFs). Though gold coins and bars are amongst those items that are hot selling, the bulk of the purchasing since the prices fell has been in the form of jewellery.
K.V. Shamsudheen, director, Barjeel Geogit Securities, a broking firm, says the sharp drop in prices has coincided with the marriage season in Kerala, in South India, that starts from June. "That is one of the significant contributory factors driving up demand," he adds.
Moreover, trading on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange hit record volumes on April 16. The Exchange saw the highest ever overall daily trading value of $3.8 billion, with a record 103,126 contracts.
It compares with Dubai's total gold trade in 2012, which was valued at around $70 billion.
Shamsudheen adds that large quantities of gold from the United Arab Emirates is flowing into Kerala. With only 3% of the population, Kerala consumes 20% of India’s gold. There is no better place to buy gold than Dubai and bring it to India, he says.
With the price of gold falling below the so called resistance level on April 16, which incidentally marked a 16% drop in 2013, retail sales have also tripled across China on April 15 and 16, with Hong Kong and Macau have reporting 25% higher turnout in jewellery shops.
Paper market rig creating panic that gold doesn't exist, Sinclair says
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2013-04-24 11:44. Section: Daily Dispatches
7:40a ET Tueday, April 24, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Jim Sinclair today tells King World News that by crashing the paper gold price the market-rigging bullion banks and central banks have created a panic among both paper gold owners and the owners of supposedly allocated gold, as no one can be confident that his gold actually exists. An excerpt from Sinclair's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Roberts says gold smash protects QE; Embry says gold default has begun
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2013-04-24 21:33. Section: Daily Dispatches
5:22p ET Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Writing for King World News, former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts writes that the Federal Reserve is suppressing gold and silver prices to protect its policy of "quantitative easing," infinite money creation. Roberts' commentary is headlined "Former U.S. Treasury Official: Fed Desperate to Stop Collapse" and it's posted at the King World News blog here:
Meanwhile, Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King World News that the default in gold has begun and gold and silver prices will go berserk when it is understood. An excerpt from Embry's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/panic-physical-gold-spreads-uk-where-royal-mint-gold-coin-sales-triple
"Panic" For Physical Gold Spreads To UK Where Royal Mint Sales Of Gold Coins Triple
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2013 13:10 -0400
- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- default
- India
- Precious Metals
- Reuters
- Standard Chartered
- United Kingdom
Following the entire "developing" world (where faith in paper money "backed" by $1 quadrillion in derivatives is at times questioned, and instead the people, for some inexplicable reason, fall back to hard currency equivalents) scrambling out to their local precious metal dealers to find "out of gold" signs virtually everywhere, yesterday it was the US Mint's turn to announce it had halted shipments of the popular one-tenth ounce gold American Eagle coin as it had run out, following a surge in demand (we expect this shortage will soon spread widely to traditional one-ounce denominations shortly).
Things in the US have gotten so bad, not only are most online dealers backlogged weeks and months in advance for most PMs (as the CEO of Texas Precious Metals explained in detail), but respected bullion vaults are also now on the verge of running out of inventory. As Reuters described, "Michael Kramer, president of Manfra, Tordella & Brookes (MTB), a major U.S. coin dealer in New York, has been inundated by orders from existing and new wholesale and retail customers. "It's panic. This is one of the busiest times in quite a while. People think gold's at the lows and they want to take advantage."
It was only a matter of time before the last bastion of paper money, London, also succumbed to the soaring demand for physical, and sure enough moments ago Bloomberg reported that the "Britain’s Royal Mint, established in the 13th century, sold more than three times more gold coins this month than a year earlier as prices declined."
Sales are more than 150 percent higher than last month, according to Shane Bissett, director of bullion and commemorative coin at the Royal Mint.
“Since the dip in the price of gold we have seen increased demand for our gold bullion coins from the major coin markets, and this presently shows no sign of abating,” Bissett said by e-mail in response to questions from Bloomberg. “The Royal Mint continues to supply to its customers and is increasing production to accommodate the higher demand.”
Its not only the UK Mint, but a pervasive global "panic" to get as much gold as possible while prices are as low as they are, courtesy of the recent takedown in spot.
Standard Chartered Plc said yesterday its gold shipments to India last week exceeded the previous record by 20 percent and were double the total of the week before.
“The concern is really how long it can last,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc. “A lot of people surge in on the low prices and then they are likely to back away a bit as prices rally and they’ve restocked.”
Don't worry, Dan: for now the surge is going on, and on, and on, and so on. We will be sure to inform you, however, when physical demand is finally satisfied. Until then, we have several months of backlogged demand to catch up on, and possibly the default of one or two depositories in the meantime.
Finally, for all those confused by the non-linear relationship between paper gold (selling via ETFs and other), and physical gold (buying via retail and corporate channels), here is Bank of America with a quick and dirty summary of how to think about the relationship:
With prices now below $1,500/oz, we expect a pick-up in jewellery demand in the medium term and see considerable pain for miners should prices dip below $1,200/oz. As such, we believe the downside to gold prices may be limited to an additional $150/oz. In fact, we estimate that jewellery demand may become so pronounced by 2016 that prices could trade above $1,500/oz even if investors remain net sellers.Looking at sensitivities from a different angle, investors would need to buy merely 600t of gold to sustain prices at $2,000/oz by 2016, compared to non-commercial purchases of 1,798t in 2012.
So yes - physical demand can and will offset even virtually unlimited paper selling, assuming of course demand for physical persists at the recent pace.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/us-mint-gold-sales-surge-highest-2009
US Mint Gold Sales Surge To Highest Since 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2013 17:33 -0400
First it was a tripling of gold sales at the UK Royal mint, and now with just 23 days in the month of April gone, it is the US Mint's turn to reports that more gold has been sold month to date than any month since December 2009 when a record 231,500 ounces were sold. In one day, the mint sold yet another 13,000 ounces of gold, bringing the total to 196,500, or more than triple the 62,000 ounces sold in the previous month.
Will the US Mint be able to sell another 35,000 ounces in the remaining week of April, and surpass the all time monthly record from December 2009? Or will it run out of gold beforehand, and just like it did with the one-tenth ounce A.E. gold coins, will sales of all bullion denominations be halted in the comings days?
Stay tuned for this exciting conclusion.
One thing that is clear is that so far the plan to crush all popular interest in gold (and redirect it into stocks, or simple purchases of Made in China trinkets) conceived by the central-planning academics, scheming in dimly lit rooms, has backfired massively.
April 24, 2013 | By Tekoa Da Silva
As the headline battle between paper sellers and physical buyers of gold escalates, something eerily strange is continuing behind the scenes.
As first reported here on April 9th, Comex gold inventories have been plummeting, demonstrating the highest levels of physical removal ever during a single quarter in Q1, 2013.
Most shocking however, is that Comex warehouse inventories are accelerating their downward plunge, with dropping inventories now spreading to the world’s largest fund depositories.
Over the last four weeks alone, total reported inventories of ETFs, funds, and depositories collapsed by over 5.5 million ounces, or in dollar terms, by over $7,000,000,000 dollars.
The largest physical removals were reported by the Comex at about 1.4 million ounces, or nearly $2 billion dollars, and the GLD, which reported total inventory removal of nearly 4 million ounces, or roughly over $5.6 billion dollars.
Here is a chart illustrating the continued gold inventory plunge at Comex warehouses (see initial April 9th. piece for comparison):
(click to enlarge)
Individual reporting by the world’s largest funds and depositories show a spreading phenomenon, with Comex and GLD sticking out like sore thumbs…
(click to enlarge)
This brings to mind important questions, such as…
-Why is there such a panic going on to remove physical gold from Comex registered warehouses and other depositories?
-Why did it begin before the collapse, and why does it now appear to be accelerating?
-Why is the multi-trillion dollar fund management industry denouncing gold, while it quickly moves inventory out of registered warehouses?
-Where is the gold moving, and what is it telling us?
-Is this wholesale migration signaling an imminent geopolitical or major market event?
—
Bottom Line: These are difficult questions to answer, however, one element of truth remains, which is that gold always tells the truth. If it gets up and moves from location to another, you can bet there’s a reason for it.
Furthermore, Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass is know for having stated that,“We went and looked at the Comex…[they had] $80B in open interest and $2.7B (3.3%) in deliverables at the time…[so] it’s actually an easy decision if you’re a fiduciary…you go get [your gold], and let them worry about the rest.”
–
Enjoy the article? Please support the site by sharing this URL page link with friends, family, and your favorite chat forum.
Thanks,
Tekoa Da Silva
Bull Market Thinking
Photo source.
Silver analyst, Jason Hamlin:
(courtesy Jason Hamlin)
Worldwide Silver Shortage as Premiums Reach 40%
Jason Hamlin
COMEX silver prices once again dipped below $23 today. My previous article entitled Ignore COMEX Pricing - Silver Eagles Sold Out at Dealers, $33 on Ebay detailed just how divorced from reality the COMEX price has become. So with another dip Tuesday, I decided to try to get my hands on some more silver coins. I realized before I picked up the phone that it would be difficult, but I have a few dealers in Colorado and California that have consistently been able to find supply at reasonable premiums.
Not anymore. The first phone call that I made was to one of the largest bullion dealers in Southern California, where I have bought a good deal of my physical gold and silver over the past decade. In fact, I had just bought several rolls of silver eagle coins from them last month at around $2.65 over spot price per ounce. I also purchased some for a family member back in January and paid the same premium.
In the past when some analysts were talking about a supply shortage and rising premiums, I was always able to find supply from this particular shop with a reasonable premium that was never more than 10% over the spot price. But today I was told that I could only order for future delivery at some point in late May or June and that the premium was $5 over the spot price.
18,864 people received this article by email alert
Add your email to get alerts on SLV too:
Get email alerts on SLV »
This article was sent to 249,574 people who get the Macro View newsletter. Get the Macro View newsletter » In just the past few weeks the premium has nearly DOUBLED, despite the silver price dropping sharply and investor sentiment supposedly at multi-year lows. The manager of the shop told me the silver shortage was worldwide and it was more difficult than ever to secure supply and keep up with demand.
Not one to give up so easily, I proceeded to call a friend and colleague that runs Cornerstone Bullion out of Denver, Colorado. I have purchased bullion from Chad in person several times and have recommended his services to my readers. He has always been able to find supply for me and while the premiums have fluctuated, they have consistently remained within a few percentage points of the lowest-priced online dealers. This was his reply:
Most everything is shipping early June from the Mint. Premiums are $4.99-5.50 right now, depending on quantity. It's pretty crazy out there right now. Junk silver is $5-6 over spot!
I then went online to Tulving.com to see if they had replenished stocks, but all of their popular silver bullion products remain 'Sold Out' including silver eagles. APMEX appears to have inventory, but they are asking around $31 per silver eagle or roughly $8 over spot price. That is a premium of 36% to the spot price.
eBay (EBAY) prices are even higher at around $32 per ounce for silver eagles or $9 over spot price. This is a premium of roughly 40%! Silver eagles from a few years back are selling for $700 or more per roll of 20, which is $12 over the spot price and a premium of more than 50%.
While those trading derivative paper contracts of silver might want you to believe that the price has dropped to $23 per ounce, the real world pricing is quite a different story. If someone has the funds and ability to take delivery from the COMEX anywhere near the current price levels, wouldn't they be doing it?
Not exactly. Several wealthy investors have been reporting that they have been unable to take delivery and are being forced to settle in cash. This action has led many to believe that the physical gold and silver may no longer be in the warehouses.Whatever the truth may be, the disconnect between paper prices and free-market real-world prices has never been greater. There is definitely something strange happening in order to create an environment where increasing demand and supply shortages somehow results in lower prices. This breaks the most fundamental economic law of supply and demand, supporting claims by GATA and others that gold and silver prices are being manipulated.
One way to purchase gold and silver at the artificially low prices is to purchase shares of the Central Fund of Canada (CEF). The fund has been around since 1961 and holds 95% or more of its assets in unencumbered, segregated and insured, passive long-term holdings of gold and silver bullion. Bullion holdings and bank vault security are inspected twice annually by directors and/or officers of Central Fund. On every occasion, inspections are required to be performed in the presence of both Central Fund's external auditors and bank personnel. Central Fund's chief executive comments:
Our bullion is stored in separate cages, with the name of the owner printed on the cage, and on top of each pallet of bullion it states Central Fund or Central Gold-Trust. This disables the bank from using the asset for any of their purposes. We also pay Lloyds of London for coverage of any possible loss.
The Central Fund of Canada almost always trades at a premium to its net asset value, sometimes as high as 20% over. But shares are currently trading at a discount. This is a rare occurrence for CEF and allows individuals to invest in physical precious metals at or near COMEX pricing. If history repeats, CEF will be bouncing back to a hefty premium in the near future as precious metals rebound. While it is not the same as having the metals in your possession, I view it as the next best thing and think the recent sell off is providing an excellent opportunity to establish or add to positions.This growing divide between the paper silver price and real-world price will have to narrow at some point soon. The more big-money investors realize the huge price gap and act on it, the faster the gap will close or soon COMEX will default or go broke from offering hefty cash incentives to investors to dissuade them from taking delivery. In the meantime, if anyone can find me some silver eagles anywhere near the COMEX price, I have a boatload.
Written by Jeff NielsonWednesday, 24 April 2013 13:23
Recent, previous commentaries have focused on the massive liquidation in the paper-gold market; as large investors (in large numbers) have fled that paper in favor of real metal. It has now been established that this flight out of the paper-gold market was in response to theCyprus Steal – and at least to some extent has been a choreographed event.
Naturally this had led to a question from readers: what about the silver market? Indeed, while the silver market has also seen the price for paper-silver plunge; there has been no corresponding liquidation of paper-silver. So what is going on here?
Regular readers have already supplied their own answer to this question, in their mail and in their comments on our Forum: yet another “manipulation operation” in the silver market. When any market exhibits some violent move in prices for no reason; we are justified in suspecting manipulation. When any market exhibits violent price-moves for no reason on a regular basis; we are justified in concluding that manipulation is taking place.
Such has been the case in the silver market not simply for years but for decades. The primary whistle-blower in the precious metals sector has been GATA; the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. However, despite its original focus on the gold market it has spent increasing time/energy focusing on the silver market – drawn by the especially blatant/egregious evidence present there.
[chart courtesy of Nick Laird, sharelynx.com]
What the chart above illustrates is not a recent phenomenon, or a temporary aberration. It is a permanent, heavy-handed club; being used by the same handful of bullion-banks to perpetually beat-down the silver market.
In both its size and its concentration; it represents a significantly more extreme position in the market than that of the Hunt Brothers – when they were convicted (in 1980) of manipulating the silver market. By itself, it is conclusive evidence of silver manipulation.
Those readers interested in a more detailed, long-term examination of silver-manipulation can refer to an older commentary: Fifty Years Of Suppressing Silver. And for those readers interested in even more historical insights into the silver market there is The Silver Stealers; a detailed chronology of the silver market by Charles Savoie.
Returning to the present, we have a silver market which was already severely depressed, where inventories had already suffered long-term decimation, and where demand remains robust; suddenly plunging lower for absolutely no reason. Defenders of market-manipulation will suggest this was a “sympathetic reaction” to the gold market…except it wasn’t.
Unlike the gold market; there has been no paper-liquidation in the silver market. In fact, while holdings of paper-gold have been plummeting, holdings of paper-silver have been steadily rising. You can’t have a “sympathetic reaction” occurring between markets with opposite dynamics.
So with holdings of paper-silver rising, with demand for physical silver remaining solid, and with there being no “sympathetic reaction” with the gold market; we have the silver market plunging lower for absolutely no reason. Manipulation.
However, the bullion-banks who operate this silver-manipulation scheme are nothing if not obvious. For those readers still skeptical of the notion of market-manipulation – despite all of the financial corruption all around us – the banksters have (as usual) “left their fingerprints” at the scene of the crime.
At Kitco Metals, inquiring minds can see a series of charts like the one below, corresponding with each of the different time periods in the silver “leasing” market:
Much like the recent margin-hike by the CME group telegraphed a deliberate intention to push bullion prices lower; negative lease rates are a virtual signed-confession. Not only does paying traders to borrow silver (and short it onto the market) lead to the market being temporarily/briefly flooded with silver; but the negative lease-rates themselves have become like a “clarion call” to these predators that another bankster operation is underway in the silver market.
What must be at least quickly noted is the strange aberration in the chart above: the very brief and seemingly inexplicable “spike” where lease rates momentarily inched back into positive territory.
One can only engage in conjecture here. However, given that the spike occurred at precisely the same time that precious metals markets began their (staged) “crash”; there is a theory consistent with all these facts. Despite the bullion-banks trying to pay traders to short silver for them (with their negative lease-rates); there were so many “shorts” lining-up at that time that massive demand drove rates back into positive territory in spite of the banksters’ intentions.
We know this could only be massive demand to short silver because of the price action: if these traders had all (or mostly) been leasing silver to go long; prices would have inevitably risen rather than fallen.
Readers need to understand that commentaries of this nature are not intended to frighten them away from the silver market; indeed, they should hopefully have precisely the opposite effect. We have a commodity which is highly coveted by both investors and industrial users, where obvious evidence of price-suppression means we can buy this asset at wonderful “sale” prices.
But what about the manipulation, ask cautious investors? My response to that concern has always been the same: low prices lead to high prices. In the 1990’s; ruthless price-suppression in the silver market drove prices to a 600-year low (in real dollars) – below $4/oz. What did that lead to?
First it led to the extermination of nearly all the world’s silver miners, decimating supply. Simultaneously, the artificially low price for silver led to an explosion in industrial demand – in hundreds of new applications. The simultaneous effect of those two changes was to cause silver inventories to plummet by 90% between 1990 and 2005.
And where did that lead us? To $49/oz in 2011. More specifically, it was the major “operation” in the silver market during the Crash of ’08 – where silver was momentarily tugged below $10/oz near the end of 2008 – which led to the short-term peak of $49/oz in the spring of 2011.
We see a similar, if not identical picture today. What was/is necessary to take the price of silverabove $100/oz (to something approaching a current “fair-market value”)? Dragging the price all the way back down close to $20/oz. Low prices lead to high prices.
Naturally, this ties in with a piece of “good advice” which investors heeded, once upon a time: buy low, sell high. The time for investors to be buying silver is not when prices are soaring higher in yet another meteoric rise. The time to buy is after or even during another bankster Operation in the silver market.
Yes, (as with anything) investors must address the fact that prices could still go lower first. This is why investors (unlike gamblers) do not use margin/leverage in their financial management. However, if prices do go even lower in the short term; supply and demand tells us this means even higher prices in the not-too-distant future.
Buy low and sell high. Ironically, the serial-manipulation of the silver market actually makes this philosophy especially easy to practice for investors. When we see (via prices) that silver is obviously “on sale”, and we see (via bankster behavior) that these are obviously artificial prices; investors then have their cue to buy.
Demand still booming for the ole relic .....
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=187200&sn=Detail
Gold bars in Dubai disappear, some at 750% premiums
The desire to own gold, as an investment and for jewellery purposes, has made itself felt in the physical market in India and in Dubai, where premiums are ruling at an all time high.
To cash in on the investor frenzy, gold dealers in Dubai have raised their premiums to 750%, given the prevailing uncertainties over the global economy.
Renowned for its role as the best place in the world to buy gold, Dubai has had an impromptu gold festival under way. The Dubai market is dominated by Indians.
While some traders are selling gold bars at a premium of $50 per ounce, others are pushing mark ups as high as 750% above normal, say retailers.
Most gold traders are reluctant to release more gold into the market as they expect prices to peak as demand increases. Right now, Dubai is facing a shortage of gold.
After scaling an all time high of $1,924 per ounce in September 2011, the precious metal slid to $1,335 on April 16 - a decline of 30% from its peak. That has got shoppers in a frenzy in Dubai.
The majority of shoppers queuing up in front of jewellery stores, mostly in the Meena Bazaar and the gold souk (market) areas in Dubai are Indians, with a sizeable segment hailing from Kerala.
Dubai merchants say sales have jumped by 400% following the recent price plunge. The consumption pattern reflects typical Indian preferences.
The majority of Indian consumers in Dubai do not prefer paper gold in the form of exchange traded funds (ETFs). Though gold coins and bars are amongst those items that are hot selling, the bulk of the purchasing since the prices fell has been in the form of jewellery.
K.V. Shamsudheen, director, Barjeel Geogit Securities, a broking firm, says the sharp drop in prices has coincided with the marriage season in Kerala, in South India, that starts from June. "That is one of the significant contributory factors driving up demand," he adds.
Moreover, trading on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange hit record volumes on April 16. The Exchange saw the highest ever overall daily trading value of $3.8 billion, with a record 103,126 contracts.
It compares with Dubai's total gold trade in 2012, which was valued at around $70 billion.
Shamsudheen adds that large quantities of gold from the United Arab Emirates is flowing into Kerala. With only 3% of the population, Kerala consumes 20% of India’s gold. There is no better place to buy gold than Dubai and bring it to India, he says.
With the price of gold falling below the so called resistance level on April 16, which incidentally marked a 16% drop in 2013, retail sales have also tripled across China on April 15 and 16, with Hong Kong and Macau have reporting 25% higher turnout in jewellery shops.
Paper market rig creating panic that gold doesn't exist, Sinclair says
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2013-04-24 11:44. Section: Daily Dispatches
7:40a ET Tueday, April 24, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Jim Sinclair today tells King World News that by crashing the paper gold price the market-rigging bullion banks and central banks have created a panic among both paper gold owners and the owners of supposedly allocated gold, as no one can be confident that his gold actually exists. An excerpt from Sinclair's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Roberts says gold smash protects QE; Embry says gold default has begun
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2013-04-24 21:33. Section: Daily Dispatches
5:22p ET Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Writing for King World News, former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts writes that the Federal Reserve is suppressing gold and silver prices to protect its policy of "quantitative easing," infinite money creation. Roberts' commentary is headlined "Former U.S. Treasury Official: Fed Desperate to Stop Collapse" and it's posted at the King World News blog here:
Meanwhile, Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King World News that the default in gold has begun and gold and silver prices will go berserk when it is understood. An excerpt from Embry's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/panic-physical-gold-spreads-uk-where-royal-mint-gold-coin-sales-triple
"Panic" For Physical Gold Spreads To UK Where Royal Mint Sales Of Gold Coins Triple
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2013 13:10 -0400
- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- default
- India
- Precious Metals
- Reuters
- Standard Chartered
- United Kingdom
Following the entire "developing" world (where faith in paper money "backed" by $1 quadrillion in derivatives is at times questioned, and instead the people, for some inexplicable reason, fall back to hard currency equivalents) scrambling out to their local precious metal dealers to find "out of gold" signs virtually everywhere, yesterday it was the US Mint's turn to announce it had halted shipments of the popular one-tenth ounce gold American Eagle coin as it had run out, following a surge in demand (we expect this shortage will soon spread widely to traditional one-ounce denominations shortly).
Things in the US have gotten so bad, not only are most online dealers backlogged weeks and months in advance for most PMs (as the CEO of Texas Precious Metals explained in detail), but respected bullion vaults are also now on the verge of running out of inventory. As Reuters described, "Michael Kramer, president of Manfra, Tordella & Brookes (MTB), a major U.S. coin dealer in New York, has been inundated by orders from existing and new wholesale and retail customers. "It's panic. This is one of the busiest times in quite a while. People think gold's at the lows and they want to take advantage."
It was only a matter of time before the last bastion of paper money, London, also succumbed to the soaring demand for physical, and sure enough moments ago Bloomberg reported that the "Britain’s Royal Mint, established in the 13th century, sold more than three times more gold coins this month than a year earlier as prices declined."
Sales are more than 150 percent higher than last month, according to Shane Bissett, director of bullion and commemorative coin at the Royal Mint.
“Since the dip in the price of gold we have seen increased demand for our gold bullion coins from the major coin markets, and this presently shows no sign of abating,” Bissett said by e-mail in response to questions from Bloomberg. “The Royal Mint continues to supply to its customers and is increasing production to accommodate the higher demand.”
Its not only the UK Mint, but a pervasive global "panic" to get as much gold as possible while prices are as low as they are, courtesy of the recent takedown in spot.
Standard Chartered Plc said yesterday its gold shipments to India last week exceeded the previous record by 20 percent and were double the total of the week before.
“The concern is really how long it can last,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc. “A lot of people surge in on the low prices and then they are likely to back away a bit as prices rally and they’ve restocked.”
Don't worry, Dan: for now the surge is going on, and on, and on, and so on. We will be sure to inform you, however, when physical demand is finally satisfied. Until then, we have several months of backlogged demand to catch up on, and possibly the default of one or two depositories in the meantime.
Finally, for all those confused by the non-linear relationship between paper gold (selling via ETFs and other), and physical gold (buying via retail and corporate channels), here is Bank of America with a quick and dirty summary of how to think about the relationship:
With prices now below $1,500/oz, we expect a pick-up in jewellery demand in the medium term and see considerable pain for miners should prices dip below $1,200/oz. As such, we believe the downside to gold prices may be limited to an additional $150/oz. In fact, we estimate that jewellery demand may become so pronounced by 2016 that prices could trade above $1,500/oz even if investors remain net sellers.Looking at sensitivities from a different angle, investors would need to buy merely 600t of gold to sustain prices at $2,000/oz by 2016, compared to non-commercial purchases of 1,798t in 2012.
So yes - physical demand can and will offset even virtually unlimited paper selling, assuming of course demand for physical persists at the recent pace.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/us-mint-gold-sales-surge-highest-2009
US Mint Gold Sales Surge To Highest Since 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2013 17:33 -0400
First it was a tripling of gold sales at the UK Royal mint, and now with just 23 days in the month of April gone, it is the US Mint's turn to reports that more gold has been sold month to date than any month since December 2009 when a record 231,500 ounces were sold. In one day, the mint sold yet another 13,000 ounces of gold, bringing the total to 196,500, or more than triple the 62,000 ounces sold in the previous month.
Will the US Mint be able to sell another 35,000 ounces in the remaining week of April, and surpass the all time monthly record from December 2009? Or will it run out of gold beforehand, and just like it did with the one-tenth ounce A.E. gold coins, will sales of all bullion denominations be halted in the comings days?
Stay tuned for this exciting conclusion.
One thing that is clear is that so far the plan to crush all popular interest in gold (and redirect it into stocks, or simple purchases of Made in China trinkets) conceived by the central-planning academics, scheming in dimly lit rooms, has backfired massively.
April 24, 2013 | By Tekoa Da Silva
As the headline battle between paper sellers and physical buyers of gold escalates, something eerily strange is continuing behind the scenes.
As first reported here on April 9th, Comex gold inventories have been plummeting, demonstrating the highest levels of physical removal ever during a single quarter in Q1, 2013.
Most shocking however, is that Comex warehouse inventories are accelerating their downward plunge, with dropping inventories now spreading to the world’s largest fund depositories.
Over the last four weeks alone, total reported inventories of ETFs, funds, and depositories collapsed by over 5.5 million ounces, or in dollar terms, by over $7,000,000,000 dollars.
The largest physical removals were reported by the Comex at about 1.4 million ounces, or nearly $2 billion dollars, and the GLD, which reported total inventory removal of nearly 4 million ounces, or roughly over $5.6 billion dollars.
Here is a chart illustrating the continued gold inventory plunge at Comex warehouses (see initial April 9th. piece for comparison):
(click to enlarge)
Individual reporting by the world’s largest funds and depositories show a spreading phenomenon, with Comex and GLD sticking out like sore thumbs…
(click to enlarge)
This brings to mind important questions, such as…
-Why is there such a panic going on to remove physical gold from Comex registered warehouses and other depositories?
-Why did it begin before the collapse, and why does it now appear to be accelerating?
-Why is the multi-trillion dollar fund management industry denouncing gold, while it quickly moves inventory out of registered warehouses?
-Where is the gold moving, and what is it telling us?
-Is this wholesale migration signaling an imminent geopolitical or major market event?
—
Bottom Line: These are difficult questions to answer, however, one element of truth remains, which is that gold always tells the truth. If it gets up and moves from location to another, you can bet there’s a reason for it.
Furthermore, Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass is know for having stated that,“We went and looked at the Comex…[they had] $80B in open interest and $2.7B (3.3%) in deliverables at the time…[so] it’s actually an easy decision if you’re a fiduciary…you go get [your gold], and let them worry about the rest.”
–
Enjoy the article? Please support the site by sharing this URL page link with friends, family, and your favorite chat forum.
Thanks,
Tekoa Da Silva
Bull Market Thinking
Photo source.
Silver analyst, Jason Hamlin:
(courtesy Jason Hamlin)
Worldwide Silver Shortage as Premiums Reach 40%
Jason Hamlin
COMEX silver prices once again dipped below $23 today. My previous article entitled Ignore COMEX Pricing - Silver Eagles Sold Out at Dealers, $33 on Ebay detailed just how divorced from reality the COMEX price has become. So with another dip Tuesday, I decided to try to get my hands on some more silver coins. I realized before I picked up the phone that it would be difficult, but I have a few dealers in Colorado and California that have consistently been able to find supply at reasonable premiums.
Not anymore. The first phone call that I made was to one of the largest bullion dealers in Southern California, where I have bought a good deal of my physical gold and silver over the past decade. In fact, I had just bought several rolls of silver eagle coins from them last month at around $2.65 over spot price per ounce. I also purchased some for a family member back in January and paid the same premium.
In the past when some analysts were talking about a supply shortage and rising premiums, I was always able to find supply from this particular shop with a reasonable premium that was never more than 10% over the spot price. But today I was told that I could only order for future delivery at some point in late May or June and that the premium was $5 over the spot price.
18,864 people received this article by email alert
Add your email to get alerts on SLV too:
Get email alerts on SLV »
This article was sent to 249,574 people who get the Macro View newsletter. Get the Macro View newsletter » In just the past few weeks the premium has nearly DOUBLED, despite the silver price dropping sharply and investor sentiment supposedly at multi-year lows. The manager of the shop told me the silver shortage was worldwide and it was more difficult than ever to secure supply and keep up with demand.
Not one to give up so easily, I proceeded to call a friend and colleague that runs Cornerstone Bullion out of Denver, Colorado. I have purchased bullion from Chad in person several times and have recommended his services to my readers. He has always been able to find supply for me and while the premiums have fluctuated, they have consistently remained within a few percentage points of the lowest-priced online dealers. This was his reply:
Most everything is shipping early June from the Mint. Premiums are $4.99-5.50 right now, depending on quantity. It's pretty crazy out there right now. Junk silver is $5-6 over spot!
I then went online to Tulving.com to see if they had replenished stocks, but all of their popular silver bullion products remain 'Sold Out' including silver eagles. APMEX appears to have inventory, but they are asking around $31 per silver eagle or roughly $8 over spot price. That is a premium of 36% to the spot price.
eBay (EBAY) prices are even higher at around $32 per ounce for silver eagles or $9 over spot price. This is a premium of roughly 40%! Silver eagles from a few years back are selling for $700 or more per roll of 20, which is $12 over the spot price and a premium of more than 50%.
While those trading derivative paper contracts of silver might want you to believe that the price has dropped to $23 per ounce, the real world pricing is quite a different story. If someone has the funds and ability to take delivery from the COMEX anywhere near the current price levels, wouldn't they be doing it?
Not exactly. Several wealthy investors have been reporting that they have been unable to take delivery and are being forced to settle in cash. This action has led many to believe that the physical gold and silver may no longer be in the warehouses.Whatever the truth may be, the disconnect between paper prices and free-market real-world prices has never been greater. There is definitely something strange happening in order to create an environment where increasing demand and supply shortages somehow results in lower prices. This breaks the most fundamental economic law of supply and demand, supporting claims by GATA and others that gold and silver prices are being manipulated.
One way to purchase gold and silver at the artificially low prices is to purchase shares of the Central Fund of Canada (CEF). The fund has been around since 1961 and holds 95% or more of its assets in unencumbered, segregated and insured, passive long-term holdings of gold and silver bullion. Bullion holdings and bank vault security are inspected twice annually by directors and/or officers of Central Fund. On every occasion, inspections are required to be performed in the presence of both Central Fund's external auditors and bank personnel. Central Fund's chief executive comments:
Our bullion is stored in separate cages, with the name of the owner printed on the cage, and on top of each pallet of bullion it states Central Fund or Central Gold-Trust. This disables the bank from using the asset for any of their purposes. We also pay Lloyds of London for coverage of any possible loss.
The Central Fund of Canada almost always trades at a premium to its net asset value, sometimes as high as 20% over. But shares are currently trading at a discount. This is a rare occurrence for CEF and allows individuals to invest in physical precious metals at or near COMEX pricing. If history repeats, CEF will be bouncing back to a hefty premium in the near future as precious metals rebound. While it is not the same as having the metals in your possession, I view it as the next best thing and think the recent sell off is providing an excellent opportunity to establish or add to positions.This growing divide between the paper silver price and real-world price will have to narrow at some point soon. The more big-money investors realize the huge price gap and act on it, the faster the gap will close or soon COMEX will default or go broke from offering hefty cash incentives to investors to dissuade them from taking delivery. In the meantime, if anyone can find me some silver eagles anywhere near the COMEX price, I have a boatload.
Written by Jeff NielsonWednesday, 24 April 2013 13:23
Recent, previous commentaries have focused on the massive liquidation in the paper-gold market; as large investors (in large numbers) have fled that paper in favor of real metal. It has now been established that this flight out of the paper-gold market was in response to theCyprus Steal – and at least to some extent has been a choreographed event.
Naturally this had led to a question from readers: what about the silver market? Indeed, while the silver market has also seen the price for paper-silver plunge; there has been no corresponding liquidation of paper-silver. So what is going on here?
Regular readers have already supplied their own answer to this question, in their mail and in their comments on our Forum: yet another “manipulation operation” in the silver market. When any market exhibits some violent move in prices for no reason; we are justified in suspecting manipulation. When any market exhibits violent price-moves for no reason on a regular basis; we are justified in concluding that manipulation is taking place.
Such has been the case in the silver market not simply for years but for decades. The primary whistle-blower in the precious metals sector has been GATA; the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. However, despite its original focus on the gold market it has spent increasing time/energy focusing on the silver market – drawn by the especially blatant/egregious evidence present there.
[chart courtesy of Nick Laird, sharelynx.com]
What the chart above illustrates is not a recent phenomenon, or a temporary aberration. It is a permanent, heavy-handed club; being used by the same handful of bullion-banks to perpetually beat-down the silver market.
In both its size and its concentration; it represents a significantly more extreme position in the market than that of the Hunt Brothers – when they were convicted (in 1980) of manipulating the silver market. By itself, it is conclusive evidence of silver manipulation.
Those readers interested in a more detailed, long-term examination of silver-manipulation can refer to an older commentary: Fifty Years Of Suppressing Silver. And for those readers interested in even more historical insights into the silver market there is The Silver Stealers; a detailed chronology of the silver market by Charles Savoie.
Returning to the present, we have a silver market which was already severely depressed, where inventories had already suffered long-term decimation, and where demand remains robust; suddenly plunging lower for absolutely no reason. Defenders of market-manipulation will suggest this was a “sympathetic reaction” to the gold market…except it wasn’t.
Unlike the gold market; there has been no paper-liquidation in the silver market. In fact, while holdings of paper-gold have been plummeting, holdings of paper-silver have been steadily rising. You can’t have a “sympathetic reaction” occurring between markets with opposite dynamics.
So with holdings of paper-silver rising, with demand for physical silver remaining solid, and with there being no “sympathetic reaction” with the gold market; we have the silver market plunging lower for absolutely no reason. Manipulation.
However, the bullion-banks who operate this silver-manipulation scheme are nothing if not obvious. For those readers still skeptical of the notion of market-manipulation – despite all of the financial corruption all around us – the banksters have (as usual) “left their fingerprints” at the scene of the crime.
At Kitco Metals, inquiring minds can see a series of charts like the one below, corresponding with each of the different time periods in the silver “leasing” market:
Much like the recent margin-hike by the CME group telegraphed a deliberate intention to push bullion prices lower; negative lease rates are a virtual signed-confession. Not only does paying traders to borrow silver (and short it onto the market) lead to the market being temporarily/briefly flooded with silver; but the negative lease-rates themselves have become like a “clarion call” to these predators that another bankster operation is underway in the silver market.
What must be at least quickly noted is the strange aberration in the chart above: the very brief and seemingly inexplicable “spike” where lease rates momentarily inched back into positive territory.
One can only engage in conjecture here. However, given that the spike occurred at precisely the same time that precious metals markets began their (staged) “crash”; there is a theory consistent with all these facts. Despite the bullion-banks trying to pay traders to short silver for them (with their negative lease-rates); there were so many “shorts” lining-up at that time that massive demand drove rates back into positive territory in spite of the banksters’ intentions.
We know this could only be massive demand to short silver because of the price action: if these traders had all (or mostly) been leasing silver to go long; prices would have inevitably risen rather than fallen.
Readers need to understand that commentaries of this nature are not intended to frighten them away from the silver market; indeed, they should hopefully have precisely the opposite effect. We have a commodity which is highly coveted by both investors and industrial users, where obvious evidence of price-suppression means we can buy this asset at wonderful “sale” prices.
But what about the manipulation, ask cautious investors? My response to that concern has always been the same: low prices lead to high prices. In the 1990’s; ruthless price-suppression in the silver market drove prices to a 600-year low (in real dollars) – below $4/oz. What did that lead to?
First it led to the extermination of nearly all the world’s silver miners, decimating supply. Simultaneously, the artificially low price for silver led to an explosion in industrial demand – in hundreds of new applications. The simultaneous effect of those two changes was to cause silver inventories to plummet by 90% between 1990 and 2005.
And where did that lead us? To $49/oz in 2011. More specifically, it was the major “operation” in the silver market during the Crash of ’08 – where silver was momentarily tugged below $10/oz near the end of 2008 – which led to the short-term peak of $49/oz in the spring of 2011.
We see a similar, if not identical picture today. What was/is necessary to take the price of silverabove $100/oz (to something approaching a current “fair-market value”)? Dragging the price all the way back down close to $20/oz. Low prices lead to high prices.
Naturally, this ties in with a piece of “good advice” which investors heeded, once upon a time: buy low, sell high. The time for investors to be buying silver is not when prices are soaring higher in yet another meteoric rise. The time to buy is after or even during another bankster Operation in the silver market.
Yes, (as with anything) investors must address the fact that prices could still go lower first. This is why investors (unlike gamblers) do not use margin/leverage in their financial management. However, if prices do go even lower in the short term; supply and demand tells us this means even higher prices in the not-too-distant future.
Buy low and sell high. Ironically, the serial-manipulation of the silver market actually makes this philosophy especially easy to practice for investors. When we see (via prices) that silver is obviously “on sale”, and we see (via bankster behavior) that these are obviously artificial prices; investors then have their cue to buy.
Demand still booming for the ole relic .....
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=187200&sn=Detail
Gold bars in Dubai disappear, some at 750% premiums
The desire to own gold, as an investment and for jewellery purposes, has made itself felt in the physical market in India and in Dubai, where premiums are ruling at an all time high.
To cash in on the investor frenzy, gold dealers in Dubai have raised their premiums to 750%, given the prevailing uncertainties over the global economy.
Renowned for its role as the best place in the world to buy gold, Dubai has had an impromptu gold festival under way. The Dubai market is dominated by Indians.
While some traders are selling gold bars at a premium of $50 per ounce, others are pushing mark ups as high as 750% above normal, say retailers.
Most gold traders are reluctant to release more gold into the market as they expect prices to peak as demand increases. Right now, Dubai is facing a shortage of gold.
After scaling an all time high of $1,924 per ounce in September 2011, the precious metal slid to $1,335 on April 16 - a decline of 30% from its peak. That has got shoppers in a frenzy in Dubai.
The majority of shoppers queuing up in front of jewellery stores, mostly in the Meena Bazaar and the gold souk (market) areas in Dubai are Indians, with a sizeable segment hailing from Kerala.
Dubai merchants say sales have jumped by 400% following the recent price plunge. The consumption pattern reflects typical Indian preferences.
The majority of Indian consumers in Dubai do not prefer paper gold in the form of exchange traded funds (ETFs). Though gold coins and bars are amongst those items that are hot selling, the bulk of the purchasing since the prices fell has been in the form of jewellery.
K.V. Shamsudheen, director, Barjeel Geogit Securities, a broking firm, says the sharp drop in prices has coincided with the marriage season in Kerala, in South India, that starts from June. "That is one of the significant contributory factors driving up demand," he adds.
Moreover, trading on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange hit record volumes on April 16. The Exchange saw the highest ever overall daily trading value of $3.8 billion, with a record 103,126 contracts.
It compares with Dubai's total gold trade in 2012, which was valued at around $70 billion.
Shamsudheen adds that large quantities of gold from the United Arab Emirates is flowing into Kerala. With only 3% of the population, Kerala consumes 20% of India’s gold. There is no better place to buy gold than Dubai and bring it to India, he says.
With the price of gold falling below the so called resistance level on April 16, which incidentally marked a 16% drop in 2013, retail sales have also tripled across China on April 15 and 16, with Hong Kong and Macau have reporting 25% higher turnout in jewellery shops.
Paper market rig creating panic that gold doesn't exist, Sinclair says
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2013-04-24 11:44. Section: Daily Dispatches
7:40a ET Tueday, April 24, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Jim Sinclair today tells King World News that by crashing the paper gold price the market-rigging bullion banks and central banks have created a panic among both paper gold owners and the owners of supposedly allocated gold, as no one can be confident that his gold actually exists. An excerpt from Sinclair's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Roberts says gold smash protects QE; Embry says gold default has begun
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2013-04-24 21:33. Section: Daily Dispatches
5:22p ET Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Writing for King World News, former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts writes that the Federal Reserve is suppressing gold and silver prices to protect its policy of "quantitative easing," infinite money creation. Roberts' commentary is headlined "Former U.S. Treasury Official: Fed Desperate to Stop Collapse" and it's posted at the King World News blog here:
Meanwhile, Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King World News that the default in gold has begun and gold and silver prices will go berserk when it is understood. An excerpt from Embry's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/panic-physical-gold-spreads-uk-where-royal-mint-gold-coin-sales-triple
"Panic" For Physical Gold Spreads To UK Where Royal Mint Sales Of Gold Coins Triple
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2013 13:10 -0400
- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- default
- India
- Precious Metals
- Reuters
- Standard Chartered
- United Kingdom
Following the entire "developing" world (where faith in paper money "backed" by $1 quadrillion in derivatives is at times questioned, and instead the people, for some inexplicable reason, fall back to hard currency equivalents) scrambling out to their local precious metal dealers to find "out of gold" signs virtually everywhere, yesterday it was the US Mint's turn to announce it had halted shipments of the popular one-tenth ounce gold American Eagle coin as it had run out, following a surge in demand (we expect this shortage will soon spread widely to traditional one-ounce denominations shortly).
Things in the US have gotten so bad, not only are most online dealers backlogged weeks and months in advance for most PMs (as the CEO of Texas Precious Metals explained in detail), but respected bullion vaults are also now on the verge of running out of inventory. As Reuters described, "Michael Kramer, president of Manfra, Tordella & Brookes (MTB), a major U.S. coin dealer in New York, has been inundated by orders from existing and new wholesale and retail customers. "It's panic. This is one of the busiest times in quite a while. People think gold's at the lows and they want to take advantage."
It was only a matter of time before the last bastion of paper money, London, also succumbed to the soaring demand for physical, and sure enough moments ago Bloomberg reported that the "Britain’s Royal Mint, established in the 13th century, sold more than three times more gold coins this month than a year earlier as prices declined."
Sales are more than 150 percent higher than last month, according to Shane Bissett, director of bullion and commemorative coin at the Royal Mint.
“Since the dip in the price of gold we have seen increased demand for our gold bullion coins from the major coin markets, and this presently shows no sign of abating,” Bissett said by e-mail in response to questions from Bloomberg. “The Royal Mint continues to supply to its customers and is increasing production to accommodate the higher demand.”
Its not only the UK Mint, but a pervasive global "panic" to get as much gold as possible while prices are as low as they are, courtesy of the recent takedown in spot.
Standard Chartered Plc said yesterday its gold shipments to India last week exceeded the previous record by 20 percent and were double the total of the week before.
“The concern is really how long it can last,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc. “A lot of people surge in on the low prices and then they are likely to back away a bit as prices rally and they’ve restocked.”
Don't worry, Dan: for now the surge is going on, and on, and on, and so on. We will be sure to inform you, however, when physical demand is finally satisfied. Until then, we have several months of backlogged demand to catch up on, and possibly the default of one or two depositories in the meantime.
Finally, for all those confused by the non-linear relationship between paper gold (selling via ETFs and other), and physical gold (buying via retail and corporate channels), here is Bank of America with a quick and dirty summary of how to think about the relationship:
With prices now below $1,500/oz, we expect a pick-up in jewellery demand in the medium term and see considerable pain for miners should prices dip below $1,200/oz. As such, we believe the downside to gold prices may be limited to an additional $150/oz. In fact, we estimate that jewellery demand may become so pronounced by 2016 that prices could trade above $1,500/oz even if investors remain net sellers.Looking at sensitivities from a different angle, investors would need to buy merely 600t of gold to sustain prices at $2,000/oz by 2016, compared to non-commercial purchases of 1,798t in 2012.
So yes - physical demand can and will offset even virtually unlimited paper selling, assuming of course demand for physical persists at the recent pace.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/us-mint-gold-sales-surge-highest-2009
US Mint Gold Sales Surge To Highest Since 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2013 17:33 -0400
First it was a tripling of gold sales at the UK Royal mint, and now with just 23 days in the month of April gone, it is the US Mint's turn to reports that more gold has been sold month to date than any month since December 2009 when a record 231,500 ounces were sold. In one day, the mint sold yet another 13,000 ounces of gold, bringing the total to 196,500, or more than triple the 62,000 ounces sold in the previous month.
Will the US Mint be able to sell another 35,000 ounces in the remaining week of April, and surpass the all time monthly record from December 2009? Or will it run out of gold beforehand, and just like it did with the one-tenth ounce A.E. gold coins, will sales of all bullion denominations be halted in the comings days?
Stay tuned for this exciting conclusion.
One thing that is clear is that so far the plan to crush all popular interest in gold (and redirect it into stocks, or simple purchases of Made in China trinkets) conceived by the central-planning academics, scheming in dimly lit rooms, has backfired massively.
As the headline battle between paper sellers and physical buyers of gold escalates, something eerily strange is continuing behind the scenes.
As first reported here on April 9th, Comex gold inventories have been plummeting, demonstrating the highest levels of physical removal ever during a single quarter in Q1, 2013.
Most shocking however, is that Comex warehouse inventories are accelerating their downward plunge, with dropping inventories now spreading to the world’s largest fund depositories.
Over the last four weeks alone, total reported inventories of ETFs, funds, and depositories collapsed by over 5.5 million ounces, or in dollar terms, by over $7,000,000,000 dollars.
The largest physical removals were reported by the Comex at about 1.4 million ounces, or nearly $2 billion dollars, and the GLD, which reported total inventory removal of nearly 4 million ounces, or roughly over $5.6 billion dollars.
Here is a chart illustrating the continued gold inventory plunge at Comex warehouses (see initial April 9th. piece for comparison):
(click to enlarge)
Individual reporting by the world’s largest funds and depositories show a spreading phenomenon, with Comex and GLD sticking out like sore thumbs…
(click to enlarge)
This brings to mind important questions, such as…
-Why is there such a panic going on to remove physical gold from Comex registered warehouses and other depositories?
-Why did it begin before the collapse, and why does it now appear to be accelerating?
-Why is the multi-trillion dollar fund management industry denouncing gold, while it quickly moves inventory out of registered warehouses?
-Where is the gold moving, and what is it telling us?
-Is this wholesale migration signaling an imminent geopolitical or major market event?
—
Bottom Line: These are difficult questions to answer, however, one element of truth remains, which is that gold always tells the truth. If it gets up and moves from location to another, you can bet there’s a reason for it.
Furthermore, Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass is know for having stated that,“We went and looked at the Comex…[they had] $80B in open interest and $2.7B (3.3%) in deliverables at the time…[so] it’s actually an easy decision if you’re a fiduciary…you go get [your gold], and let them worry about the rest.”
–
Enjoy the article? Please support the site by sharing this URL page link with friends, family, and your favorite chat forum.
Enjoy the article? Please support the site by sharing this URL page link with friends, family, and your favorite chat forum.
Thanks,
Tekoa Da Silva
Bull Market Thinking
Tekoa Da Silva
Bull Market Thinking
Photo source.
Silver analyst, Jason Hamlin:
(courtesy Jason Hamlin)
Jason Hamlin
COMEX silver prices once again dipped below $23 today. My previous article entitled Ignore COMEX Pricing - Silver Eagles Sold Out at Dealers, $33 on Ebay detailed just how divorced from reality the COMEX price has become. So with another dip Tuesday, I decided to try to get my hands on some more silver coins. I realized before I picked up the phone that it would be difficult, but I have a few dealers in Colorado and California that have consistently been able to find supply at reasonable premiums.
Not anymore. The first phone call that I made was to one of the largest bullion dealers in Southern California, where I have bought a good deal of my physical gold and silver over the past decade. In fact, I had just bought several rolls of silver eagle coins from them last month at around $2.65 over spot price per ounce. I also purchased some for a family member back in January and paid the same premium.
In the past when some analysts were talking about a supply shortage and rising premiums, I was always able to find supply from this particular shop with a reasonable premium that was never more than 10% over the spot price. But today I was told that I could only order for future delivery at some point in late May or June and that the premium was $5 over the spot price.
18,864 people received this article by email alert
Add your email to get alerts on SLV too:
Get email alerts on SLV »
This article was sent to 249,574 people who get the Macro View newsletter. Get the Macro View newsletter »
In just the past few weeks the premium has nearly DOUBLED, despite the silver price dropping sharply and investor sentiment supposedly at multi-year lows. The manager of the shop told me the silver shortage was worldwide and it was more difficult than ever to secure supply and keep up with demand.Not one to give up so easily, I proceeded to call a friend and colleague that runs Cornerstone Bullion out of Denver, Colorado. I have purchased bullion from Chad in person several times and have recommended his services to my readers. He has always been able to find supply for me and while the premiums have fluctuated, they have consistently remained within a few percentage points of the lowest-priced online dealers. This was his reply:
Most everything is shipping early June from the Mint. Premiums are $4.99-5.50 right now, depending on quantity. It's pretty crazy out there right now. Junk silver is $5-6 over spot!I then went online to Tulving.com to see if they had replenished stocks, but all of their popular silver bullion products remain 'Sold Out' including silver eagles. APMEX appears to have inventory, but they are asking around $31 per silver eagle or roughly $8 over spot price. That is a premium of 36% to the spot price.
eBay (EBAY) prices are even higher at around $32 per ounce for silver eagles or $9 over spot price. This is a premium of roughly 40%! Silver eagles from a few years back are selling for $700 or more per roll of 20, which is $12 over the spot price and a premium of more than 50%.
While those trading derivative paper contracts of silver might want you to believe that the price has dropped to $23 per ounce, the real world pricing is quite a different story. If someone has the funds and ability to take delivery from the COMEX anywhere near the current price levels, wouldn't they be doing it?
Not exactly. Several wealthy investors have been reporting that they have been unable to take delivery and are being forced to settle in cash. This action has led many to believe that the physical gold and silver may no longer be in the warehouses.Whatever the truth may be, the disconnect between paper prices and free-market real-world prices has never been greater. There is definitely something strange happening in order to create an environment where increasing demand and supply shortages somehow results in lower prices. This breaks the most fundamental economic law of supply and demand, supporting claims by GATA and others that gold and silver prices are being manipulated.
One way to purchase gold and silver at the artificially low prices is to purchase shares of the Central Fund of Canada (CEF). The fund has been around since 1961 and holds 95% or more of its assets in unencumbered, segregated and insured, passive long-term holdings of gold and silver bullion. Bullion holdings and bank vault security are inspected twice annually by directors and/or officers of Central Fund. On every occasion, inspections are required to be performed in the presence of both Central Fund's external auditors and bank personnel. Central Fund's chief executive comments:
Our bullion is stored in separate cages, with the name of the owner printed on the cage, and on top of each pallet of bullion it states Central Fund or Central Gold-Trust. This disables the bank from using the asset for any of their purposes. We also pay Lloyds of London for coverage of any possible loss.The Central Fund of Canada almost always trades at a premium to its net asset value, sometimes as high as 20% over. But shares are currently trading at a discount. This is a rare occurrence for CEF and allows individuals to invest in physical precious metals at or near COMEX pricing. If history repeats, CEF will be bouncing back to a hefty premium in the near future as precious metals rebound. While it is not the same as having the metals in your possession, I view it as the next best thing and think the recent sell off is providing an excellent opportunity to establish or add to positions.This growing divide between the paper silver price and real-world price will have to narrow at some point soon. The more big-money investors realize the huge price gap and act on it, the faster the gap will close or soon COMEX will default or go broke from offering hefty cash incentives to investors to dissuade them from taking delivery. In the meantime, if anyone can find me some silver eagles anywhere near the COMEX price, I have a boatload.
Written by Jeff NielsonWednesday, 24 April 2013 13:23
Recent, previous commentaries have focused on the massive liquidation in the paper-gold market; as large investors (in large numbers) have fled that paper in favor of real metal. It has now been established that this flight out of the paper-gold market was in response to theCyprus Steal – and at least to some extent has been a choreographed event.
Naturally this had led to a question from readers: what about the silver market? Indeed, while the silver market has also seen the price for paper-silver plunge; there has been no corresponding liquidation of paper-silver. So what is going on here?
Regular readers have already supplied their own answer to this question, in their mail and in their comments on our Forum: yet another “manipulation operation” in the silver market. When any market exhibits some violent move in prices for no reason; we are justified in suspecting manipulation. When any market exhibits violent price-moves for no reason on a regular basis; we are justified in concluding that manipulation is taking place.
Such has been the case in the silver market not simply for years but for decades. The primary whistle-blower in the precious metals sector has been GATA; the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. However, despite its original focus on the gold market it has spent increasing time/energy focusing on the silver market – drawn by the especially blatant/egregious evidence present there.
[chart courtesy of Nick Laird, sharelynx.com]
What the chart above illustrates is not a recent phenomenon, or a temporary aberration. It is a permanent, heavy-handed club; being used by the same handful of bullion-banks to perpetually beat-down the silver market.
In both its size and its concentration; it represents a significantly more extreme position in the market than that of the Hunt Brothers – when they were convicted (in 1980) of manipulating the silver market. By itself, it is conclusive evidence of silver manipulation.
Those readers interested in a more detailed, long-term examination of silver-manipulation can refer to an older commentary: Fifty Years Of Suppressing Silver. And for those readers interested in even more historical insights into the silver market there is The Silver Stealers; a detailed chronology of the silver market by Charles Savoie.
Returning to the present, we have a silver market which was already severely depressed, where inventories had already suffered long-term decimation, and where demand remains robust; suddenly plunging lower for absolutely no reason. Defenders of market-manipulation will suggest this was a “sympathetic reaction” to the gold market…except it wasn’t.
Unlike the gold market; there has been no paper-liquidation in the silver market. In fact, while holdings of paper-gold have been plummeting, holdings of paper-silver have been steadily rising. You can’t have a “sympathetic reaction” occurring between markets with opposite dynamics.
So with holdings of paper-silver rising, with demand for physical silver remaining solid, and with there being no “sympathetic reaction” with the gold market; we have the silver market plunging lower for absolutely no reason. Manipulation.
However, the bullion-banks who operate this silver-manipulation scheme are nothing if not obvious. For those readers still skeptical of the notion of market-manipulation – despite all of the financial corruption all around us – the banksters have (as usual) “left their fingerprints” at the scene of the crime.
At Kitco Metals, inquiring minds can see a series of charts like the one below, corresponding with each of the different time periods in the silver “leasing” market:
Much like the recent margin-hike by the CME group telegraphed a deliberate intention to push bullion prices lower; negative lease rates are a virtual signed-confession. Not only does paying traders to borrow silver (and short it onto the market) lead to the market being temporarily/briefly flooded with silver; but the negative lease-rates themselves have become like a “clarion call” to these predators that another bankster operation is underway in the silver market.
What must be at least quickly noted is the strange aberration in the chart above: the very brief and seemingly inexplicable “spike” where lease rates momentarily inched back into positive territory.
One can only engage in conjecture here. However, given that the spike occurred at precisely the same time that precious metals markets began their (staged) “crash”; there is a theory consistent with all these facts. Despite the bullion-banks trying to pay traders to short silver for them (with their negative lease-rates); there were so many “shorts” lining-up at that time that massive demand drove rates back into positive territory in spite of the banksters’ intentions.
We know this could only be massive demand to short silver because of the price action: if these traders had all (or mostly) been leasing silver to go long; prices would have inevitably risen rather than fallen.
Readers need to understand that commentaries of this nature are not intended to frighten them away from the silver market; indeed, they should hopefully have precisely the opposite effect. We have a commodity which is highly coveted by both investors and industrial users, where obvious evidence of price-suppression means we can buy this asset at wonderful “sale” prices.
But what about the manipulation, ask cautious investors? My response to that concern has always been the same: low prices lead to high prices. In the 1990’s; ruthless price-suppression in the silver market drove prices to a 600-year low (in real dollars) – below $4/oz. What did that lead to?
First it led to the extermination of nearly all the world’s silver miners, decimating supply. Simultaneously, the artificially low price for silver led to an explosion in industrial demand – in hundreds of new applications. The simultaneous effect of those two changes was to cause silver inventories to plummet by 90% between 1990 and 2005.
And where did that lead us? To $49/oz in 2011. More specifically, it was the major “operation” in the silver market during the Crash of ’08 – where silver was momentarily tugged below $10/oz near the end of 2008 – which led to the short-term peak of $49/oz in the spring of 2011.
We see a similar, if not identical picture today. What was/is necessary to take the price of silverabove $100/oz (to something approaching a current “fair-market value”)? Dragging the price all the way back down close to $20/oz. Low prices lead to high prices.
Naturally, this ties in with a piece of “good advice” which investors heeded, once upon a time: buy low, sell high. The time for investors to be buying silver is not when prices are soaring higher in yet another meteoric rise. The time to buy is after or even during another bankster Operation in the silver market.
Yes, (as with anything) investors must address the fact that prices could still go lower first. This is why investors (unlike gamblers) do not use margin/leverage in their financial management. However, if prices do go even lower in the short term; supply and demand tells us this means even higher prices in the not-too-distant future.
Buy low and sell high. Ironically, the serial-manipulation of the silver market actually makes this philosophy especially easy to practice for investors. When we see (via prices) that silver is obviously “on sale”, and we see (via bankster behavior) that these are obviously artificial prices; investors then have their cue to buy.
Demand still booming for the ole relic .....
Gold bars in Dubai disappear, some at 750% premiums
The desire to own gold, as an investment and for jewellery purposes, has made itself felt in the physical market in India and in Dubai, where premiums are ruling at an all time high.
To cash in on the investor frenzy, gold dealers in Dubai have raised their premiums to 750%, given the prevailing uncertainties over the global economy.
Renowned for its role as the best place in the world to buy gold, Dubai has had an impromptu gold festival under way. The Dubai market is dominated by Indians.
While some traders are selling gold bars at a premium of $50 per ounce, others are pushing mark ups as high as 750% above normal, say retailers.
Most gold traders are reluctant to release more gold into the market as they expect prices to peak as demand increases. Right now, Dubai is facing a shortage of gold.
After scaling an all time high of $1,924 per ounce in September 2011, the precious metal slid to $1,335 on April 16 - a decline of 30% from its peak. That has got shoppers in a frenzy in Dubai.
The majority of shoppers queuing up in front of jewellery stores, mostly in the Meena Bazaar and the gold souk (market) areas in Dubai are Indians, with a sizeable segment hailing from Kerala.
Dubai merchants say sales have jumped by 400% following the recent price plunge. The consumption pattern reflects typical Indian preferences.
The majority of Indian consumers in Dubai do not prefer paper gold in the form of exchange traded funds (ETFs). Though gold coins and bars are amongst those items that are hot selling, the bulk of the purchasing since the prices fell has been in the form of jewellery.
K.V. Shamsudheen, director, Barjeel Geogit Securities, a broking firm, says the sharp drop in prices has coincided with the marriage season in Kerala, in South India, that starts from June. "That is one of the significant contributory factors driving up demand," he adds.
Moreover, trading on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange hit record volumes on April 16. The Exchange saw the highest ever overall daily trading value of $3.8 billion, with a record 103,126 contracts.
It compares with Dubai's total gold trade in 2012, which was valued at around $70 billion.
Shamsudheen adds that large quantities of gold from the United Arab Emirates is flowing into Kerala. With only 3% of the population, Kerala consumes 20% of India’s gold. There is no better place to buy gold than Dubai and bring it to India, he says.
With the price of gold falling below the so called resistance level on April 16, which incidentally marked a 16% drop in 2013, retail sales have also tripled across China on April 15 and 16, with Hong Kong and Macau have reporting 25% higher turnout in jewellery shops.
Paper market rig creating panic that gold doesn't exist, Sinclair says
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2013-04-24 11:44. Section: Daily Dispatches
7:40a ET Tueday, April 24, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Jim Sinclair today tells King World News that by crashing the paper gold price the market-rigging bullion banks and central banks have created a panic among both paper gold owners and the owners of supposedly allocated gold, as no one can be confident that his gold actually exists. An excerpt from Sinclair's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Roberts says gold smash protects QE; Embry says gold default has begun
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2013-04-24 21:33. Section: Daily Dispatches
5:22p ET Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Writing for King World News, former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts writes that the Federal Reserve is suppressing gold and silver prices to protect its policy of "quantitative easing," infinite money creation. Roberts' commentary is headlined "Former U.S. Treasury Official: Fed Desperate to Stop Collapse" and it's posted at the King World News blog here:
Meanwhile, Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King World News that the default in gold has begun and gold and silver prices will go berserk when it is understood. An excerpt from Embry's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/panic-physical-gold-spreads-uk-where-royal-mint-gold-coin-sales-triple
"Panic" For Physical Gold Spreads To UK Where Royal Mint Sales Of Gold Coins Triple
- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- default
- India
- Precious Metals
- Reuters
- Standard Chartered
- United Kingdom
Following the entire "developing" world (where faith in paper money "backed" by $1 quadrillion in derivatives is at times questioned, and instead the people, for some inexplicable reason, fall back to hard currency equivalents) scrambling out to their local precious metal dealers to find "out of gold" signs virtually everywhere, yesterday it was the US Mint's turn to announce it had halted shipments of the popular one-tenth ounce gold American Eagle coin as it had run out, following a surge in demand (we expect this shortage will soon spread widely to traditional one-ounce denominations shortly).
Things in the US have gotten so bad, not only are most online dealers backlogged weeks and months in advance for most PMs (as the CEO of Texas Precious Metals explained in detail), but respected bullion vaults are also now on the verge of running out of inventory. As Reuters described, "Michael Kramer, president of Manfra, Tordella & Brookes (MTB), a major U.S. coin dealer in New York, has been inundated by orders from existing and new wholesale and retail customers. "It's panic. This is one of the busiest times in quite a while. People think gold's at the lows and they want to take advantage."
It was only a matter of time before the last bastion of paper money, London, also succumbed to the soaring demand for physical, and sure enough moments ago Bloomberg reported that the "Britain’s Royal Mint, established in the 13th century, sold more than three times more gold coins this month than a year earlier as prices declined."
Sales are more than 150 percent higher than last month, according to Shane Bissett, director of bullion and commemorative coin at the Royal Mint.
“Since the dip in the price of gold we have seen increased demand for our gold bullion coins from the major coin markets, and this presently shows no sign of abating,” Bissett said by e-mail in response to questions from Bloomberg. “The Royal Mint continues to supply to its customers and is increasing production to accommodate the higher demand.”
Its not only the UK Mint, but a pervasive global "panic" to get as much gold as possible while prices are as low as they are, courtesy of the recent takedown in spot.
Standard Chartered Plc said yesterday its gold shipments to India last week exceeded the previous record by 20 percent and were double the total of the week before.“The concern is really how long it can last,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc. “A lot of people surge in on the low prices and then they are likely to back away a bit as prices rally and they’ve restocked.”
Don't worry, Dan: for now the surge is going on, and on, and on, and so on. We will be sure to inform you, however, when physical demand is finally satisfied. Until then, we have several months of backlogged demand to catch up on, and possibly the default of one or two depositories in the meantime.
Finally, for all those confused by the non-linear relationship between paper gold (selling via ETFs and other), and physical gold (buying via retail and corporate channels), here is Bank of America with a quick and dirty summary of how to think about the relationship:
With prices now below $1,500/oz, we expect a pick-up in jewellery demand in the medium term and see considerable pain for miners should prices dip below $1,200/oz. As such, we believe the downside to gold prices may be limited to an additional $150/oz. In fact, we estimate that jewellery demand may become so pronounced by 2016 that prices could trade above $1,500/oz even if investors remain net sellers.Looking at sensitivities from a different angle, investors would need to buy merely 600t of gold to sustain prices at $2,000/oz by 2016, compared to non-commercial purchases of 1,798t in 2012.
So yes - physical demand can and will offset even virtually unlimited paper selling, assuming of course demand for physical persists at the recent pace.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/us-mint-gold-sales-surge-highest-2009
US Mint Gold Sales Surge To Highest Since 2009
First it was a tripling of gold sales at the UK Royal mint, and now with just 23 days in the month of April gone, it is the US Mint's turn to reports that more gold has been sold month to date than any month since December 2009 when a record 231,500 ounces were sold. In one day, the mint sold yet another 13,000 ounces of gold, bringing the total to 196,500, or more than triple the 62,000 ounces sold in the previous month.
Will the US Mint be able to sell another 35,000 ounces in the remaining week of April, and surpass the all time monthly record from December 2009? Or will it run out of gold beforehand, and just like it did with the one-tenth ounce A.E. gold coins, will sales of all bullion denominations be halted in the comings days?
Stay tuned for this exciting conclusion.
One thing that is clear is that so far the plan to crush all popular interest in gold (and redirect it into stocks, or simple purchases of Made in China trinkets) conceived by the central-planning academics, scheming in dimly lit rooms, has backfired massively.
No comments:
Post a Comment