US anti-proliferation efforts have centered almost entirely on Iran in recent years, despite a glaring lack of evidence that Iran is even interested in nuclear weapons. That focus is so determined, however, that even when North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, the Obama Administration is making it about Iran.
Secretary of State John Kerry made that the focus of his comments on North Korea, saying that the international moves against North Korea are important because they will “send a message” to Iran and prove to them that their own civilian program won’t be tolerated.
President Obama has promised tolead a global crackdown against North Korea, vowing that the world would take “firm action” without any specifics about what that would be. Since the US sanctions on North Korea are already near absolute, the options are likely limited.
Yet if Iran is the issue, all manner of unreasonable hostility is possible, and the administration is trying to draw a clear line with North Korea that it is, for some reason, all about Iran. Moving to stick it to the North Koreans as a way of scaring Iran seems absurd, but once a notion hits the administration they tend to run with it.
Secretary of State John Kerry says that he and the rest of the State Department are hard at work developing “new options” for the Obama Administration to use in a move against the Assad government in Syria.
Kerry says that he expects to have new recommendations when he returns from his current trip abroad to follow up on President Obama’s State of the Union pledge to “keep the pressure” on Assad.
The goal at present for the administration is to convince Assad that defeat is inevitable in the hopes that he will voluntarily resign afterwards. The US has been predicting Assad’s imminent fall, but the Syrian civil war has remained stalemated.
State Department officials went on to insist that Kerry would under no circumstances use his long-standing friendship with Assad to try to broker a direct meeting, with spokeswoman Victoria Nuland insisting that Kerry’s relationship with Assad was “well before” the current civil war.
To date vows and sanctions haven't resulted in changes by North Korea , Syria or Iran - let alone their allies.....
Iran recently sought to acquire tens of thousands of highly specialized magnets used in centrifuge machines, according to experts and diplomats, a sign that the country may be planning a major expansion of its nuclear program that could shorten the path to an atomic weapons capability.
Purchase orders obtained by nuclear researchers show an attempt by Iranian agents to buy 100,000 of the ring-shaped magnets — which are banned from export to Iran under U.N. resolutions — from China about a year ago, those familiar with the effort said. It is unclear whether the attempt succeeded.
Although Iran has frequently sought to buy banned items from foreign vendors, this case is considered unusual because of the order’s specificity and sheer size — enough magnets in theory to outfit 50,000 new centrifuges, or nearly five times the number that Iran currently operates.
The revelation of the new orders for nuclear-sensitive parts coincides with Iran’s announcement that it plans to add thousands of more-advanced, second-generation centrifuges that would allow it to ramp up its production of enriched uranium even further, analysts said.
Iran insists that its nuclear program is peaceful and that its enrichment efforts are directed toward medical research and energy production. The disclosure of the purchase attempt comes at a time when the country is seeking to gain diplomatic leverage ahead of negotiations on proposed limits to its nuclear program.
The attempt, nonetheless, has fueled Western concerns that Iran is planning a major expansion in its nuclear capacity that would allow it to make atomic weapons quickly if it chooses to do so.
“They are positioning themselves to make a lot of nuclear progress quickly,” said a European diplomat with access to sensitive intelligence on Iran’s nuclear facilities, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. “Each step forward makes the situation potentially more dangerous.”
A shrinking of Iran’s timeline for obtaining a weapons capability could increase pressure on Israel, which in recent months has appeared to ease off from threats of a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In a speech Monday to American Jewish leaders, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had not crossed the “red line” that would warrant a military strike, but he said the country’ s recent nuclear advances “shorten the time it will take them to cross that line.”
Complicating Israel’s calculus, Iran has simultaneously taken steps to ease Western anxiety over its nuclear program, chiefly by converting a portion of its uranium stockpile into a metal form that cannot be easily used to make nuclear weapons. A Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed Tuesday that the conversion of some of Iran’s uranium stockpile was underway. “This work is being done,” the spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast, told reporters in Tehran.
A report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog, due for release this week, is expected to document Iran’s seemingly contradictory moves, portraying the country as carefully avoiding provocative behavior even as it quietly prepares to increase production at its two uranium-enrichment plants.
Engineers recently installed more than 1,000 new IR-1 centrifuge machines at Iran’s largest uranium plant, near the city of Natanz, adding to the roughly 9,000 IR-1 machines currently in operation, said officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency. An additional 2,800 IR-1s have been installed near the city of Qom at a small enrichment plant built beneath a mountain to shield it against airstrikes. But most of the machines are not operational.
Iran has sought to acquire a long list of sensitive materials in recent months, U.S. officials said. In October, federal prosectors secured a guilty plea from a Texas-based Taiwanese national who was charged with helping Iran obtain more than 100,000 parts from U.S. companies over a five-year period, including electronics used in nuclear installations and in missile guidance systems.
The purchase order for the magnets — copies of which were obtained by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security and shown to The Washington Post — suggests that a vastly larger expansion could be just over the horizon.
The specific dimensions spelled out in the order form match precisely — to a fraction of a millimeter — those of the powerful magnets used in the IR-1, a machine that spins at supersonic speeds to purify uranium gas into an enriched form that can be used in nuclear power plants. With further processing, the same machines can produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.
With two magnets needed per machine, the order technically could supply Iran with enough material for 50,000 new gas centrifuges, although some of the magnets would probably have been reserved for repairs and spare parts, said David Albright, ISIS president and a former IAEA inspector.
“It implies that they want to build a lot more centrifuges,” he said.
The magnets are made of an unusual alloy known as barium strontium ferrite and were ordered from a Chinese vendor in late 2011. The order was placed by an Iranian businessman, who said the magnets were needed for a “great factory” engaged in a “new project” inside Iran, according to the online order.
U.S. intelligence officials declined to comment on the specifics of the magnets case. One official who closely tracks Iranian procurement efforts said Iran still actively seeks banned technology from a variety of foreign vendors, often using front companies and cover stories to conceal the intended use of the materials it buys.
According to the ISIS investigation, the company that placed the order had been previously linked to Iranian efforts to acquire sensitive technology. The Canadian government placed the firm under sanctions late last year because of unspecified proliferation concerns.
Independent nuclear experts who reviewed the magnets case generally backed the ISIS conclusions. Olli Heinonen, who led IAEA nuclear inspections inside Iran before his retirement in 2010, said the type of magnet sought by Iran was highly specific to the IR-1 centrifuge and could not, for example, be used in the advanced IR-2M centrifuges that Iran has recently tested.
“The numbers in the order make sense, because Iran originally told us it wanted to build more than 50,000 of the IR-1s,” Heinonen said. “The failure rate on these machines is 10 percent a year, so you need a surplus.”
Heinonen said IAEA officials also have documented Iranian efforts to obtain critical parts for the IR-2M machines, which represent a significant technical advance from the clunky, unreliable IR-1.
Nonetheless, Iran has avoided what many experts consider Israel’s new “red line”: a stockpile of medium-enriched uranium greater than 530 pounds, roughly the amount needed to build a weapon if further purified. At the current pace, Iran could reach that theoretical threshold by the middle of next year, said a Western diplomat privy to internal IAEA reports on Iran’s nuclear progress.
“Adding new machines just means you get there a lot faster,” the diplomat said.
Posted By Josh RoginWednesday, February 13, 2013 - 4:12 PM Share
Secretary of State John Kerry called all the foreign ministers of countries that deal with North Korea following Monday's nuclear test and all but one of them picked up the phone -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Speaking to reporters Wednesday, Kerry made his first remarks about the new nuclear test, which the North Koreans warned the State Department about in advance.
"With respect to the DPRK, President Obama made it crystal clear last night and previously in all comments, as have other countries, that North Korea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program are a threat now to the United States of America, because of what they are pursuing specifically, as well as to global security and peace," Kerry said.
"Following their latest provocation, which we have termed and believe is reckless and provocative, needlessly, I called Foreign Minister Kim of South Korea, I talked to Foreign Minister Kishida of Japan, I talked to Foreign Minister Yang of China, and we have placed a phone call to Foreign Minister Lavrov, and consulted with all of them with respect to the steps that we need to take," Kerry went on. "The international community now needs to come together with a swift and clear, strong, credible response, as pledged in the U.N. Security Council Resolution 2087."
The now-defunct six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program included the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, and Russia. But Russia's leaders are the only members of that group with whom Kerry hasn't spoken this week.
At Wednesday's State Department press briefing, outgoing Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland denied that Kerry was frantically trying to reach Lavrov. (The Cable has confirmed that Nuland will soon be replaced at the podium by White House Deputy Press Secretary Jen Psaki.)
"There's been nothing frantic about it. He reached out to Foreign Minister Lavrov yesterday, made it clear again today that he's ready to talk whenever Foreign Minister Lavrov can find the time," Nuland said.
On Tuesday, Nuland said that Kerry had called Lavrov early in the morning and was hoping to connect with him by the end of that day. Lavrov has been traveling in Africa, she noted.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had similar difficulty reaching Lavrov quickly by phone. In early 2012, Lavrov was traveling in Australia and didn't return Clinton's call about a pending U.N. resolution on Syria.
One reporter asked Nuland Wednesday whether the State Department had communicated to the Russian Foreign Ministry its displeasure of Russia's announcement that it will continue to fulfill arms sales contracts to the Syrian regime.
"I think it's fair to say... that in every conversation with a senior Russian leader, from President Putin through Foreign Minister Lavrov and all the way down, the issue of Russia's continued resupply of Syria comes up," Nuland said.
Russian arms exporter says supplies to Syria will go on
Wed, 13 Feb 2013 12:11 GMT
Source: Reuters // Reuters
* Director says weapons are purely defensive
* Russia is one of Syria's top arms suppliers (Adds details, background)
By Thomas Grove
MOSCOW, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Russia will continue deliveries of arms to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his armed forces, the head of the state weapons exporter said on Wednesday, despite the Middle Eastern country's civil war.
Russia supplied nearly $1 billion's worth of arms to Syria in 2011 and has long been an ally of Assad.
"We are continuing to carry out our obligations on contracts for the delivery of military hardware," Rosoboronexport director Anatoly Isaikin told a news conference.
Two ships carried arms in January to Syria's Tartous port, where Russia has a repair and maintenance facility, following naval training exercises in the Mediterranean, Itar-Tass reported earlier this month.
Isaikin said Russia's deliveries included anti-missile air defence systems but not attack weapons such as planes or helicopters. The exports did not contravene international law or U.N. Security Council resolutions, he said.
Moscow has blocked three U.N. Security Council resolutions aimed at putting pressure on Assad. It says his departure must not be a precondition for negotiations to settle the almost two-year-old conflict that has killed more than 60,000 people.
At the conference, Rosoboronexport announced a new $12.9 billion record for 2012 arms exports.
Isaikin said a 2011 contract for 36 Yak-130 fighter jets had not been cancelled but that "not a single" plane had been delivered to Syria. He did not explain why Rosoboronexport had not made the deliveries.
A source close to Rosoboronexport said Russia's Foreign Ministry was looking at various scenarios on what to do with the contracts if Assad fell.
Separately Alexei Pushkov, the chairman of a parliamentary council on foreign relations said: "Assad will defend himself to the end ... As he did before, he controls the army and special forces."
Without giving figures for this year, Isaikin said Syria ranked 13 or 14 among Rosoboronexport's clients, far behind customers including India, Vietnam and China.
A report by Moscow-based defence think tank CAST said last year some $500 million of arms exports were estimated to have been delivered in 2012, though that figure included aircraft which Isaikin said had not been delivered.
Isaikin also denied his company recently sent repaired helicopters to Syria. Last year, a cargo ship bound for Syria off the British coast turned back to Russia after its insurer withdrew coverage for the vessel.
The ship Alaed was believed to have been carrying 12-15 repaired Mi-25 helicopters. (Reporting by Thomas Grove; editing by Andrew Roche)
South Korea says it might take 2-3 days to confirm what kind of fissile material was used in the test [Reuters]
Many of Tuesday's events regarding North Korea can be filed under "we've been here before": the early indications of a seismic event; the revelation that North Korea had given prior warning overnight to the US and China; the steady stream of international condemnation; the triumphant statement from Pyongyang. But within that statement were a couple of lines that indicate North Korea might have made a significant breakthrough.
First was Pyongyang's assertion that the nuclear test was "carried out at a high level in a safe and perfect manner using a miniaturised and lighter nuclear device with greater explosive force than previously". In short that it had achieved a long-sought goal, making the bomb smaller, perhaps small enough to place on top of a missile.
Three things to note: it's something the US and its allies have been expecting to happen, eventually; North Korea doesn't yet have the missile capability to send a warhead into space and back to a target on Earth; and it knows a first strike would be a suicidal move, inviting regime-ending retaliation. But if true, it marks a real advance in North Korea's nuclear capacity, and leaves other regional powers with a growing nuclear threat to contain.
The other phrase that sticks out is North Korea's claim that the test "demonstrated the good performance of the DPRK's nuclear deterrence that has become diversified". As well as the potential for miniaturisation, much pre-test speculation had centred on whether it would use highly enriched uranium, rather than plutonium, thereby "diversifying" the nuclear arsenal. Uranium enrichment facilities are much easier to conceal than plutonium-producing reactors, making the threat of proliferation harder to counter.
South Korea says it might take 2-3 days to confirm what kind of fissile material was used. It's not always possible even to do that, let alone to ascertain the full details of a test deep inside a remote group of mountains. For now, what Pyongyang says happened is all there is to go on. But that's more than enough to attract another round of sanctions at the UN.
Secretary of State John Kerry made that the focus of his comments on North Korea, saying that the international moves against North Korea are important because they will “send a message” to Iran and prove to them that their own civilian program won’t be tolerated.
Kerry says that he expects to have new recommendations when he returns from his current trip abroad to follow up on President Obama’s State of the Union pledge to “keep the pressure” on Assad.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013 - 4:12 PM 
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