http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/02/beppe-grillos-five-star-movement-on.html
Those totals are as of 4:00 Central. I have been watching the totals for a half hour. M5S has been inching up steadily. A half hour ago M5S was down by .5%. Momentum suggests M5S will overtake Partito Democratico (Pd).
Italy MIB Stock Market Futures Plunge
From the Guardian Election Blog
Update As of 4:20 PM
Grillo move into a vote lead for the first time I have been watching. Percentages still locked at 25.5% each.
and.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-25/meet-biggest-winner-todays-italian-elections
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2013 17:36 -0500
Hung Parliament as show by the Pie Charts....... no way PD even with the Monti Coalition gets to 158 in the Senate , thus we probably have another election once a Government cannot be formed....
http://www.rainews24.rai.it/ran24/extra/elezioni2013/popup/index.php
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/02/italians-head-to-voting-booths-election.html
The Journal says "unless Italy’s 51 million eligible voters shifted dramatically in recent days, Mr. Bersani should win a plurality."
I suggest such a shift has taken place. The open question regards turnout and apathy, not a shift, per se.
Loser's Penalty
In the Chamber (the lower House of parliament) the party with the largest plurality in the national vote gets a majority (54%) of the seats. In the Senate (the upper chamber of parliament) each of 17 Italy's regions operate independently and the winner of each region gets a majority (55%) of the region's seats.
There are 315 seats in the Senate. Lombardy, Italy's largest region gets 49 seats and the winner will take 27 seats (55%). The other parties will split the remaining 22. Second place may only get 10.
The Journal sums it up this way.
"If Mr. Bersani wins all 17 regions, his coalition will have 178 seats and a commanding upper-house majority. However, if he loses Lombardy, the most populuous region, he will have only 162 seats. If he wins Lombardy but loses Veneto – a near certainty given polling trends – and also loses Sicily – to Mr. Grillo rather than Mr. Berlusconi – the center-left will have 159 Senate seats, a razor-thin majority."
Not So Fast
I am not convinced Bersani wins the Chamber, let alone the Senate. Some 22-25% of Italians were undecided in the election polls before blackout two weeks ago. Since then, I suggest (based on crowd turnout and social media comments) that there has been a surge for Beppe Grillio and Silvio Berlusconi.
The last election polls before the blackout look like this:
Given the number of undecided voters, Bersani can easily drop 3% or more (and I suspect more). If Berlusconi and/or Grillo gets a huge percent of the undecided votes, Bersani can easily drop to second or even third place.
Senate Coalition Unlikely
Monti is a lost cause and I doubt he gets more than 10%, making a Senate coalition unlikely if not impossible.
I commented on the possibility of a win by Berlusconi or Grillo in Germany Warns Against "Silvio the Savior" (And That May Backfire); Fake Horse Race Odds Get Around Blackouts.
Reader "AC" who is from Italy but now lives in France writes ...
I expect a surge of voter enthusiasm for Grillo that will take votes away from Bersani and Berlusconi. Somewhat paradoxically, I also expect a surge in apathy where voters stay home.
The apathy I refer to is not on the Grillo or Berlusconi side, but apathy for Bersani and Monti. Certainly the campaign by Monti is anemic. Thus, unless there is a late surge of energy for Bersani (and I highly doubt there is), Bersani is going to come up short.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-24/what-italians-are-saying-about-election-real-time
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/24/2013 10:30 -0500
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/02/beppe-grillo-surges-in-last-minute-rush.html
A threat? A Threat to What?
Grillo wants Italy to vote on whether or not to stay in the Eurozone. On that score I happen to agree. The sooner the eurozone splinters the better. Greece would be better off it it left four years ago and Spain would be better off if it left now.
That does not mean I endorse all the policies of Grillo, and indeed I don't. My point is that huge change is desperately needed.
As I have stated on many occasions "Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected."
The scare should not be that a breakup happens, but rather that the inevitable is delayed with grave consequences.
Scariest Chart Ever?
Weisenthal calls that the scariest Europe chart ever. Assuming the chart does represent an increasing interest in Beppe Grillo, I call it a necessary trend on the path to rebalancing Europe.
For more on the election in Italy, an explanation of Beppe Grillo's "5 Star Movement" and some election predictions, please see European Reader Offers Insights on Upcoming Italian Election
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2013 10:48 -0500
Monday, February 25, 2013 4:16 PM
Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement On Verge of Being Largest Political Party in Italy; Italy Stock Market Futures Plunge 3.5%
As the vote totals wind down, Beppe Grillo is the symbolic winner in the election. His MoVimento 5 Stelle (MS5 - Five Star Movement) is on the verge of becoming the largest party in Italy by popular vote.
As of 4:00 PM...
The center-left coalition of four political parties has 29.7% of the vote, but Bersani's party, Partito Democratico (Pd), has 25.5% of the vote.
Beppe Grillo has no coalition. His MoVimento 5 Stelle (M5S) party is in a dead tie with 25.5% of the vote.
As of 4:00 PM...
The center-left coalition of four political parties has 29.7% of the vote, but Bersani's party, Partito Democratico (Pd), has 25.5% of the vote.
Beppe Grillo has no coalition. His MoVimento 5 Stelle (M5S) party is in a dead tie with 25.5% of the vote.
The center-right coalition of nine political parties received 29.0% of the vote, but Berlusconi's party, Il Popolo della libertà (Pdl), received 21.4% of the vote.
On an Actual Party (Not Coalition Basis)
On an Actual Party (Not Coalition Basis)
- Pier Luigi Bersani - Partito Democratico (Pd) - 25.5%
- Beppe Grillo - MoVimento 5 Stelle (M5S) 25.5%
- Silvio Berlusconi - Il Popolo della libertà (Pdl) - 21.4%
Those totals are as of 4:00 Central. I have been watching the totals for a half hour. M5S has been inching up steadily. A half hour ago M5S was down by .5%. Momentum suggests M5S will overtake Partito Democratico (Pd).
Italy MIB Stock Market Futures Plunge
From the Guardian Election Blog
Update As of 4:20 PM
Grillo move into a vote lead for the first time I have been watching. Percentages still locked at 25.5% each.
and.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-25/meet-biggest-winner-todays-italian-elections
Meet The Biggest Winner From Today's Italian Elections
It may come as a surprise to some, but the largest single party in the Italian Chamber as a result of today's elections, when stripping away all alliance partners, is none other than Beppe Grillo's Movimento 5 Stelle. With 25.53% of the votes (96.44% of the vote counted), the comedian/blogger/counterestablishmentarian/contrarian received more votes than either Bersani's Democratic Party which got 25.51%, and Berlusconi's Popolo Della Liberta, which got 21.44%. Congratulations to both him, and to the Italian people who made the most symbolic vote of all: that they are done with a broken statist status quo, and that despite engrained beliefs to the contrary, there is a third alternative to the fake Party A-Party B paradigm.
Hung Parliament as show by the Pie Charts....... no way PD even with the Monti Coalition gets to 158 in the Senate , thus we probably have another election once a Government cannot be formed....
http://www.rainews24.rai.it/ran24/extra/elezioni2013/popup/index.php
Proiezioni
Camera dei deputati
Senato della Repubblica
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/02/italians-head-to-voting-booths-election.html
Sunday, February 24, 2013 12:58 PM
Italians Head to Voting Booths, Election Ends 9:00AM EST Monday; Surge for Grillo and "The Apathy Factor" Will Doom Bersani Coalition
Voting booths are open in Italy though 3:00PM Monday (9:00AM EST). Exit polls will trickle in soon after but early exit polls could be misleading. If the result is close will may not know for over a day.
The Wall Street Journal offers this Italian Election Guide.
The Wall Street Journal offers this Italian Election Guide.
Italian voters can cast ballots Sunday and until 0900 ET Monday, after which exit polls will provide quick but approximate insight into the probable result of the election.
The center-left coalition led by Democratic Left leader Pier Luigi Bersani was five percentage points ahead of Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right coalition according to the average of polls before a blackout on such surveys kicked in two weeks ago, giving it clear front-runner status.Shift Has Taken Place
Exit polls in 2006 and 2008 underestimated votes cast for Mr. Berlusconi, but unless Italy’s 51 million eligible voters shifted dramatically in recent days, Mr. Bersani should – even with fewer than a third of the ballots cast – win a plurality, meaning his coalition will be awarded a majority of seats in the 630-seat lower legislative chamber.
The Journal says "unless Italy’s 51 million eligible voters shifted dramatically in recent days, Mr. Bersani should win a plurality."
I suggest such a shift has taken place. The open question regards turnout and apathy, not a shift, per se.
Loser's Penalty
In the Chamber (the lower House of parliament) the party with the largest plurality in the national vote gets a majority (54%) of the seats. In the Senate (the upper chamber of parliament) each of 17 Italy's regions operate independently and the winner of each region gets a majority (55%) of the region's seats.
There are 315 seats in the Senate. Lombardy, Italy's largest region gets 49 seats and the winner will take 27 seats (55%). The other parties will split the remaining 22. Second place may only get 10.
The Journal sums it up this way.
"If Mr. Bersani wins all 17 regions, his coalition will have 178 seats and a commanding upper-house majority. However, if he loses Lombardy, the most populuous region, he will have only 162 seats. If he wins Lombardy but loses Veneto – a near certainty given polling trends – and also loses Sicily – to Mr. Grillo rather than Mr. Berlusconi – the center-left will have 159 Senate seats, a razor-thin majority."
Not So Fast
I am not convinced Bersani wins the Chamber, let alone the Senate. Some 22-25% of Italians were undecided in the election polls before blackout two weeks ago. Since then, I suggest (based on crowd turnout and social media comments) that there has been a surge for Beppe Grillio and Silvio Berlusconi.
The last election polls before the blackout look like this:
- Bersani center-left 34.5%
- Berlusconi center-right 29%
- Beppe Grillo’s Five-Star Movement 19%
- Monti Civic Choice 12%.
Given the number of undecided voters, Bersani can easily drop 3% or more (and I suspect more). If Berlusconi and/or Grillo gets a huge percent of the undecided votes, Bersani can easily drop to second or even third place.
Senate Coalition Unlikely
Monti is a lost cause and I doubt he gets more than 10%, making a Senate coalition unlikely if not impossible.
I commented on the possibility of a win by Berlusconi or Grillo in Germany Warns Against "Silvio the Savior" (And That May Backfire); Fake Horse Race Odds Get Around Blackouts.
Reader "AC" who is from Italy but now lives in France writes ...
Hi Mish
After a hung parliament, the next most likely outcome may very well be the Five Star Movement (M5S) getting an absolute majority. Rage against the political class is extremely high in Italy, everything that looks "new" is getting votes. Grillo was able to catch the sentiment shift with extremely populist proposals even though his economic program is quite incoherent if not blatantly preposterous.
Grillo support comes from the youngest part of the population.
Undecided voters may not vote at all (in Italy you do not have to register to have right to vote, you are registered by default) or they will probably shift massively to Grillo. The outcome will depend on whether the undecideds stay home.
How Grillo's parliament members will react as newly elected officials is a real unknown. Grillo himself will not be in the Parliament, and his party will be quite young. None of them have much political experience, even not in smaller city councils.
What they will do? How they will react? Nobody knows. That's the most "fascinating" thing of M5S, completely new people of a completely new party managed in a completely new way. Grillo and his candidates never did a single minute of TV interview during the whole campaign. They decided to ignore completely TV (but TV has not completely ignored them). This also is completely new, probably new in the modern world.
I do not think Berlusconi will be able to win this time. He has definitely lost a part of his voters, those that expected from him to keep his past promises.The Apathy Factor
The hung parliament is the most likely outcome, as I said months ago, and I do not even think that Bersani and Monti together will have majority.
Last but not least: Monti has declared yesterday that Merkel was not comfortable with Bersani as Prime Minister, but Merkel officially denied the minute after. Really a strange declaration from a man like Monti that made of international credibility its main "value proposition".
Regards
AC
I expect a surge of voter enthusiasm for Grillo that will take votes away from Bersani and Berlusconi. Somewhat paradoxically, I also expect a surge in apathy where voters stay home.
The apathy I refer to is not on the Grillo or Berlusconi side, but apathy for Bersani and Monti. Certainly the campaign by Monti is anemic. Thus, unless there is a late surge of energy for Bersani (and I highly doubt there is), Bersani is going to come up short.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-24/what-italians-are-saying-about-election-real-time
What Italians Are Saying About The Election In Real-Time
For those who want to get a sense of who the leading candidate in Italy is, at least based on concurrent mentions on Twitter, here is an application that tracks candidate references in real-time. Needless to say, Grillo and Berlusconi are head and shoulders above the rest.
And while yesterday we provided a tactical ten-step summary of what to expect today and tomorrow, below, courtesy of Open Europe, is the comprehensive recap of all the strategic issues that rest on the outcome of today's election.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/02/beppe-grillo-surges-in-last-minute-rush.html
Saturday, February 23, 2013 1:39 AM
Beppe Grillo Surges in Last Minute Rush; Is That a Good Thing?
Reader "AC" who is from Italy but now lives in France informs me that the Italian elections this weekend are getting even more interesting.
Specifically, "AC" writes "Grillo claims 800,000 assisted at his closure meeting in Rome with another 150,000 via streaming. My feeling is that there will be a huge turnout for Grillo in the election".
Joe Weisenthal on the Business Insider writes "I Have Seen The Scariest Chart In Europe".
The chart Weisenthal refers to is from Google Trends. It shows a surge in searches on Beppe Grillo. Weisenthal says ...
Specifically, "AC" writes "Grillo claims 800,000 assisted at his closure meeting in Rome with another 150,000 via streaming. My feeling is that there will be a huge turnout for Grillo in the election".
Joe Weisenthal on the Business Insider writes "I Have Seen The Scariest Chart In Europe".
The chart Weisenthal refers to is from Google Trends. It shows a surge in searches on Beppe Grillo. Weisenthal says ...
Grillo is a comedian-turned-politician who is doing shockingly well the Italian elections (coming up this Sunday and Monday) by running on an aggressive anti-bank, euro-skeptic platform.
He's capitalizing on the deep frustration that exists in Italy due to the weak economy, and the perception that the current government is too corrupt and cozy with banks. Were he to gain a sizable block in the upcoming parliament, he represents a pretty serious threat.
A threat? A Threat to What?
Grillo wants Italy to vote on whether or not to stay in the Eurozone. On that score I happen to agree. The sooner the eurozone splinters the better. Greece would be better off it it left four years ago and Spain would be better off if it left now.
That does not mean I endorse all the policies of Grillo, and indeed I don't. My point is that huge change is desperately needed.
As I have stated on many occasions "Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected."
The scare should not be that a breakup happens, but rather that the inevitable is delayed with grave consequences.
Scariest Chart Ever?
Weisenthal calls that the scariest Europe chart ever. Assuming the chart does represent an increasing interest in Beppe Grillo, I call it a necessary trend on the path to rebalancing Europe.
For more on the election in Italy, an explanation of Beppe Grillo's "5 Star Movement" and some election predictions, please see European Reader Offers Insights on Upcoming Italian Election
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-23/your-complete-10-step-italian-election-guide
Your Complete, 10-Step Italian Election Guide
While we have discussed the strategic implications of this tomorrow's critical Italian elections previously (An Italian "Hung Parliament" - Europe's Biggest Political Risk), the actual chronology of events of tomorrow's Italian elections which proceed through Monday is somewhat nebulous. So courtesy of JPM's Alex White, here is the complete 10 step walk-thru of what to expect starting tomorrow, and ending, perhaps, with the appointment of a new President in May, unless of course there is a slight detour...
The following is an indicative outline of how events may unfold in Italy over the coming days. Some significant differences and delays are possible.
- Sunday/Monday: Electors (age 18+ for the Chamber, age 25+ for the Senate) are able to cast their vote from 8.00am to 10.00pm on Sunday, or from 7.00am to 3.00pm on Monday.
- Sunday/Monday: The turnout will be counted and should be published three times on Sunday (at 12 noon, 7.00pm and 10.00pm) and once on Monday when polls close (3.00pm). Some commentators may make rough projections on Sunday based on turnout, which might provide some clues as to the direction of polls (a low turnout may hurt Berlusconi for example)
- Monday Afternoon: Vote counting will begin as soon as polls close at 3:00 p.m. (2.00pm London, 9.00am NY) on Monday in the following order: Senate, Chamber, regional positions (in Lombardia, Lazio, Molise). Broadcasters will be making predictions through the afternoon. We should get some (likely inaccurate) polls after the close.
- Monday Evening: Some initial estimates are expected for the first time around 4.30pm Monday for the Senate, 6.30pm for the Chamber (local time) - possibly slightly later.
- Monday Evening: For the Senate, interim updates may be released every 30 minutes until 50% of the count is completed. When 50% of the count is completed a first estimate of the distribution of seats should be announced (likely around 6.30-7.00pm or later).
- Monday Evening: For the Chamber, the first estimates may appear at 6.30pm, with updates every half hour until 50% of the count is completed and an initial estimate given (likely after 7.30-8.00pm or later)
- Monday/Tuesday: We expect to have a good indication of the Senate and Chamber numbers late on Monday night (possibly by around 11.00pm). Formal results for the Chamber may not come through until first thing on Tuesday morning (with the regional positions being announced on Tuesday late afternoon). In the previous election, both sets of counts were 90% complete by 11.00pm on election night.
- Tuesday: Early (informal) discussion on possible Government formation may begin on Tuesday (formal talks will wait until the President gives a mandate). The process of Government formation may take some weeks, but it should be clear on Tuesday whether Bersani-Monti have enough seats between them to build a coalition.
- March: Election of the presidents of the Chamber and Senate usually happens within 2-3 weeks and the Prime Minister should be in place by end of March at the latest. There will be lots of noise over this period; but the result should not be in doubt if the parties have the numbers they need (uncertainty would obviously dominate in the case of a hung parliament).
- May: A new President of the Republic will be appointed to replace President Napolitano in May.
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