Monday, January 14, 2013

Have the US and Israel quietly accepted that Iran will indeed build nuclear weapons and nothing will stop that ? Iran economy limps along - expect more sanctions to be levied with the same effect to date on Iran's determination to pusue nuclear energy and probably a weapon program.

http://www.debka.com/article/22686/Iran-sends-monkeys-into-space-%E2%80%93-so-can-place-nukes-anywhere-on-earth


Iran sends monkeys into space – so can place nukes anywhere on earth

DEBKAfile Special Report January 15, 2013, 7:52 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Iranian missiles   monkeys   spacecraft 
Monkey in space
Monkey in space
Iran will parade its ballistic rocket achievements by sending monkeys into space next month. Hamid Fazeli, head of the country’s space agency said Tuesday, Jan. 15 that the launch would be part of the celebrations leading up to the 34th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Feb. 10 and part of the program for putting humans in orbit in 2020. 
Five monkeys in a capsule named Pishgam (Pioneer) will be carried into orbit by a Kavoshgar rocket and orbit earth 120-130 kilometers in space, he said. Western space experts are dubious about Iran’s ability to send a capsule into orbit and expect the monkeys to come down to earth quite soon.
This is not the first such attempt to be touted by Tehran. Last October, Iran acknowledged that an attempt to send a live monkey into space on August 1 was a failure.
 DEBKAfile reports that the Iranians habitually mask the advances in their nuclear and missile programs by claiming they are purely in the interests of scientific research.
Since firing the first Iranian-made satellite, the 27-kilogram Omid launched in February 2009,DEBKAfile’s military sources report that they have developed a rocket with a payload capacity of 330 kilograms, which is capable of placing nuclear warheads anywhere on the face of the earth. After Omid, American and Israeli rocket and intelligence experts warned both their governments that Iran’s success in space technology represents the most dangerous breakthrough in their development of a military nuclear device and means of delivery. However, neither the Obama administration nor the Netanyahu government heeded this warning.
Since there is no precise information about the size and weight of the space capsule due to carry the monkeys into orbit, it is impossible to compute the size of the nuclear warhead the rockets can deliver.
Two years ago, June 29, 2011, British Foreign Secretary William Hague confirmed that Iran “has also been carrying out covert ballistic missile tests and rocket launches, including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payment in contravention of US Resolution 1929.”
However, Tehran has taken the precaution of greeting the coming visit of the International Atomic Energy Agency delegation with its usual proclamation of nuclear innocence. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Tuesday that a religious decree issued by Iran’s supreme leader banning nuclear weapons is binding on the Iranian government. The West must understand, he said, “There is nothing higher than the exalted supreme leader’s fatwa to define the framework for our activities in the nuclear field.”











http://www.debka.com/article/22685/Obama-prepares-public-to-accept-first-Iranian-nuclear-test


Obama prepares public to accept first Iranian nuclear test

DEBKAfile Special Report January 15, 2013, 10:56 AM (GMT+02:00)
A demonstration in Tehran
A demonstration in Tehran

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told an Israeli TV interviewer Monday night, Jan. 14 that his government had spent billions of shekels to outfit Israel’s Defense Forces with offensive and defensive options which were hitherto lacking. He stressed Israel is obliged to be extremely strong – whether to stand up to the Iranian nuclear threat and the extremist Islamist wave lashing the Arab world – or to make peace.
Earlier Monday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz ceremonially installed Maj. Gen. Gady Eisenkott as deputy C.-of-S, after the state attorney had approved his taking up the post irregularly in the middle of an election campaign in view of Israel’s security situation.
When the AG made that decision some days ago, a decision by Syrian President Bashar Assad to attack Israel with chemical weapons was taken into account as a possibility. Not that the danger is over,  only that it was pushed into a quiet corner by the statements made last Friday, Jan. 11 by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs Gen. Martin Dempsey.
They explained at a joint news conference in Washington that if Assad chose to use his chemical stockpiles, it would be virtually impossible for US intelligence to detect it in advance or to stop him. “You would have to actually see it before it happened," said Dempsey.
However, not so longer ago, last August, the same Secretary Panetta and Defense Minister Ehud Barak said they were certain that if Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave the order to build a nuclear bomb, “…we will know it, we and you and some other intelligence services will know about it…”
However, the latest comment on the Syrian chemical threat also lets the cat out of the bag on another WMD menace lurking in wait for the region. Because, if US intelligence finds itself unable to detect an Assad order for a chemical attack, how can they be sure to know when Iran starts building a nuclear bomb? The answer is they can’t.
Anticipating this question, the Obama administration had its answer ready.
Monday, the Institute for Science and International Security’s president, David Albright, a proliferation expert who often represents thinking in US security and intelligence agencies, presented a 154-page report in Washington titled “Strategy for US Nonproliferation in the Changing Middle East” He was one of the co-chairs of this project which once again shifted all the way to mid-2014 the key timeline for Iran to be able “to produce enough weapon-grade uranium for one or bombs without detection by the West.”


President Barack Obama is obviously preparing for his second term in office a policy that lines up his Middle East unconventional weapons ducks - Syrian chemical and Iranian nuclear – under the same revised estimate. Contrary to previous official US statements, Albright now establishes that US intelligence is incapable of pinning down the moment when Iran starts assembling a nuclear bomb, any more than it can detect the Syrian order to embark on chemical warfare.
Therefore, a preemptive operation is out and people must get ready to wake up one morning to find Iran has carried out its first nuclear test, in the same way as they must expect to be surprised by Bashar Assad’s launch of a chemical attack. Only then, may Washington and Jerusalem begin wondering what to do.
But to stave off that moment, Obama still hopes the secret negotiations he initiated with Iran last month plus stiff sanctions (so far ineffective for slowing down Iran’s nuclear progress) will do the trick of holding Tehran back from building a bomb. Failing this result, the Albright report provides him – and Iran - with another eighteen months’ grace.
DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources affirm that this new estimate may be convenient for some but it is false: Iran already has enough enriched uranium – produced or procured - for building at least five nukes. This is no secret. Wednesday, Jan. 9, the Financial Times reported that a stock of 5 tonnes of un-enriched uranium, enough to produce weapons-grade fuel for five atomic devices, had gone missing in Syria and may have passed to Iran. The stock had been prepared for the nuclear reactor Bashar Assad was building at Al-Kibar in eastern Syria before it was destroyed by Israel in 2007. The information was based on British intelligence sources.
The nuances in Netanyahu’s current reference to the Iranian nuclear threat suggest that he too is aware of the new winds blowing in Washington. In his latest statement, he departed from his standard assertion that his government would not permit Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon and said instead: “The government which I head has invested billions to prepare the country for the Iranian threat.”




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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-14/guest-post-despite-sanctions-irans-economy-limps-along


Guest Post: Despite Sanctions, Iran's Economy Limps Along

Tyler Durden's picture




Submitted by John C.K. Daly of OilPrice.com
Despite Sanctions, Iran's Economy Limps Along
In the 20th century, upright moral nations developed a new method of showing international opprobrium to rogue nations, the implantation of economic sanctions, designed to modify a recalcitrant nation’s behavior to accommodate international political mores.
The most infamous example is the U.S. unilaterally imposing an oil embargo on Japan in July 1941, which most historians now agree led directly to Pearl Harbor, as energy bereft Japan, importing 4/5 of its crude oil needs from the U.S., decided to seize the oil assets of the Dutch East Indies in order to continue its imperial adventures in China and southeast Asia.
Fast forward to 2013, and Washington is seeking yet again to use sanctions to influence Iran’s domestic policies, most notably its support for insurgent (terror) regimes and its civilian nuclear uranium enrichment program, which Tehran maintains is entirely peaceful, but which the U.S. and Israel assert in fact masks a covert program to develop a nuclear weapon capacity.
Iran is now unique in the world that it is currently subject to a series of sanctions regimes, including those imposed by the U.S., the European Union and the United Nations Security Council.
Even plucky Australia has gotten into the act, with Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr announcing on 10 January that Canberra’s new sanctions targeted Iran’s financial, trade, energy, and transport sectors, telling reporters, "These sanctions further increase pressure on Iran to comply with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations and with UN Security Council resolutions and to engage in serious negotiations on its nuclear program."
So, how effective has western pressure been in bringing Tehran’s mullahcracy to heel?
On 7 January Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi told the country's budget and planning parliamentary commission that  Iran’s oil exports have plummeted by 40 percent as a result of the Western sanctions targeting the country’s nuclear program and that there had also been  “a 45 percent decrease in repatriating oil money."

Qasemi’s candidness was a significant climbdown, as previously he had persistently maintained that Iran's crucial oil exports were entirely unaffected by the U.S. and EU sanctions.
Whatever yardstick is used, the Western sanctions have diminished Iranian oil exports. While in 2011 the EU had purchased 18 percent of Iran's oil exports, that figure has now shrunk to zero, while other Iranian export markets, including China, Japan, South Korea, India and Turkey have  decreased Iranian crude oil imports from anywhere from 15 percent to more than 40 percent during 2012. According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Iran is the second largest producer, and the International Energy Agency, Iranian crude exports have fallen from around 2.4 million barrels per day in late 2011 to roughly one million barrels per day by December 2012.
Financial analysts estimate that plummeting exports, combined with the U.S. sanctions designed to exclude Iran from using international banking transactions to repatriate oil revenues are now costing the country roughly $5 billion per month in lost revenues. On 9 January Iran’s central bank stated that by the end of 2012 the country’s annual inflation rate soared by 27.4 percent, and that in October 2012, the Iranian rial lost about 50 percent of its value in one week.

Tehran refutes the nuclear allegations and maintains that, as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency, it is entitled to develop and acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
So, how effective have the sanctions been in moderating Iran’s behavior up to now?
Current indications are not much, despite the damage inflicted on the country’s economy.
On 9 January Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran should establish more processing industries in the oil and gas sectors to reduce dependency on exports of crude oil and that the budget plan for the next Iranian year of 1392 (to start on 21 March) envisaged less dependence on crude oil revenues as the government intends to replace crude oil exports with oil derivatives to allow the nation’s economy to participate in the oil sector’s lucrative downstream industry.
An Islamic regime has controlled Iran for the last 34 years, and it is worth bearing in mind that, according to the CIA World Factbook, the median age of Iran’s population is 26, which means that half the country’s population knows no other political system.

Accordingly, what is the Farsi word for “stalemate?” A regime that has weathered more than three decades of tumult in its efforts to construct an Islamic society seems unlikely in an energy-starved world to ameliorate its behavior solely to please the dictates of Washington, Brussels, the UN and Canberra.
And oh, on 14 September 2012 the United States exempted Belgium, Britain, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Japan from complying with the sanctions for another 180 days, a list that was expanded on 8 December to include China, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Taiwan.
And, of course, the military option remains “on the table.”



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http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/01/14/283517/iran-to-phase-out-euro-dollar-in-trade/


Iran plans to phase out dollar, euro in foreign trade: Econ. min.
Iran’s economy minister says the country plans to phase out dollar and euro in its foreign trade.
Iran’s economy minister says the country plans to phase out dollar and euro in its foreign trade.
Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:1PM GMT
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[Iran’s] government has strengthened its resolve to remove vehicle currencies such as dollar and euro in its [foreign] trade.”
Iran's Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Shamseddin Hosseini
Iran's Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Shamseddin Hosseini says the country plans to phase out dollar and euro in its future international transactions after the US and the European Union (EU) imposed sanctions on Iran.


“[Iranian] government has made up its mind to phase out vehicle currencies such as dollar and euro in its [foreign] trade,” Hosseini told reporters on the sidelines of the first meeting of the heads of Economic Cooperation Organization’s tax organizations in Tehran on Monday. 

He added that after the imposition of sanctions on Iran by the US and the EU, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) immediately moved to change the country's hard currencies reserves into euro and gold which “was beneficial to the country.”

The Iranian minister noted that a change in trade model would reduce the country’s need to vehicle currencies, including dollar and euro.

Hosseini stated that Iran’s trade partners have welcomed the decision due to the currency war waged by the US through devaluation of dollar and also because of West's financial crisis which has convinced other countries to phase out vehicle currencies.

On November 22, 2012, the CBI Governor Mahmoud Bahmani called for the use of local currencies in the global trade system as alternative to dominant tenders.

“Iran has taken proper measures to remove dominant currencies, particularly dollar and euro, from its foreign currency reserves as well as its international trade. [In doing this, Iran has shown that] it is possible to do trade without relying on major currencies,” he said.

At the beginning of 2012, the US and the European Union imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil and financial sectors with the goal of preventing other countries from purchasing Iranian oil and conducting transactions with the Central Bank of Iran. 

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