http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-15/exposing-europes-syphilitic-structural-core-mep-daniel-hannan
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2013 19:23 -0500
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2013 12:20 -0500
He laid out the country's goals for the future, by adding: "Our ambition is to spectacularly change Greece and to transform it from a bad example, filled with problems, to an outstanding example of a model economy."
Exposing Europe's "Syphilitic Structural Core" With MEP Daniel Hannan
In an impassioned 80 seconds, MEP Daniel Hannan exposes the structurally rotten "syphilitic core" of a European Union whose existential crisis has now seemingly been pronounced 'over' by those wondrous self-denying members of the European elite."There is an extraordinary denial going on," the eloquent Englishman expounds as he notes that they still "haven't addressed the fundamental problem," of 'applying a single monetary policy to countries with widely divergent conditions and means' leaving unemployment rising and growth stagnating. He notes that the crisis in one respect is over, the moment of decision of taking one of two paths, is indeed over - and "the squaller, the wretchedness, the unemployment and poverty have now become structural."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-15/pictets-four-horsemen-euro-pocalypse
Pictet's Four Horsemen Of The Euro-pocalypse
Via Perspectives Pictet,
Euro area industrial production decreased in November, for the third month running, and reached its lowest since April 2010.Indeed, industrial production fell by 0.3% m-o-m in November, worse than the 0.2% m-o-m rise expected. The October figure was revised up marginally from -1.4% m-o-m to -1.0% m-o-m.
Industrial production plunged for all periphery countries
In terms of country, the industrial production figures were mixed with 8 out of 12 countries experiencing negative m-o-m growth. It is worth noting that all periphery countries recorded a sharp monthly decrease: Italy: -1.0%, Spain: -2.5%, Greece: -1.5%, Portugal: -3.4% and Ireland: -1.1%. As a result, the rate of recovery in the periphery remains well below the average. As for core countries, industrial production increased slightly in Germany (0.1% m-o-m) for the first time since July 2012. France and the Netherlands also posted positive growth, 0.5% m-o-m and 1.0% m-o-m respectively.
In terms of country, the industrial production figures were mixed with 8 out of 12 countries experiencing negative m-o-m growth. It is worth noting that all periphery countries recorded a sharp monthly decrease: Italy: -1.0%, Spain: -2.5%, Greece: -1.5%, Portugal: -3.4% and Ireland: -1.1%. As a result, the rate of recovery in the periphery remains well below the average. As for core countries, industrial production increased slightly in Germany (0.1% m-o-m) for the first time since July 2012. France and the Netherlands also posted positive growth, 0.5% m-o-m and 1.0% m-o-m respectively.
Trough in Q4?
Recent business surveys (PMIs, Ifo, Insee and Isae) have confirmed a stabilisation in activity, albeit in negative territory. So there is still hope that Q1 could see some improvement in core countries, but yesterday’s result are more evidence of further contraction in Q4.
Recent business surveys (PMIs, Ifo, Insee and Isae) have confirmed a stabilisation in activity, albeit in negative territory. So there is still hope that Q1 could see some improvement in core countries, but yesterday’s result are more evidence of further contraction in Q4.
Deeper contraction in Q4
On average, October and November industrial production combined plunged 2.4% compared to Q3, significantly lower than the 0.3% q-o-q recorded in Q3. This tends to confirm our scenario of a strong contraction of overall economic activity in Q4. Therefore, we are standing by our forecast of -0.4% q-o-q real GDP growth in Q4, -0.4% for the whole of 2012 and -0.3 % for 2013 (consensus -0.1%).
On average, October and November industrial production combined plunged 2.4% compared to Q3, significantly lower than the 0.3% q-o-q recorded in Q3. This tends to confirm our scenario of a strong contraction of overall economic activity in Q4. Therefore, we are standing by our forecast of -0.4% q-o-q real GDP growth in Q4, -0.4% for the whole of 2012 and -0.3 % for 2013 (consensus -0.1%).
Current optimism likely to be challenged by poor economic data
Despite hope of an improvement in activity in Q1 2013, the overall picture remains very gloomy, especially for the periphery countries. Without external help (ECB unorthodox measures, fiscal federalism, etc.) these countries are likely to remain entrenched in recession. As a result, doubts about their ability to service their debt are likely to resurface and therefore to dent the optimism currently prevailing on financial markets.
Despite hope of an improvement in activity in Q1 2013, the overall picture remains very gloomy, especially for the periphery countries. Without external help (ECB unorthodox measures, fiscal federalism, etc.) these countries are likely to remain entrenched in recession. As a result, doubts about their ability to service their debt are likely to resurface and therefore to dent the optimism currently prevailing on financial markets.
Crisis over ? Is that correct Barroso and Rehn ? Not so fast.....
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/euro-crisis-is-past-its-peak-eu-commissioner-says-a-871330.html
Have we seen the worst of the euro crisis? According to European Commissioner Olli Rehn, we have. He said on Thursday that the debt and financial crisis afflicting Europe's common currency zone has surpassed its apex.
Rehn, commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, told the Financial Times Deutschland on Thursday: "The last high point of the crisis was in June, around the time of the Greek elections. Now we have a reverse trend."
Rehn defended the strict austerity measures applied in countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain, and credited such policies with successfully reducing the combined budget deficit in the euro zone from 6.2 percent of the currency area's gross domestic product in 2010 to 3 percent this year and a projected 2.5 percent in 2013.
In the interview, Rehn said a change in policy is underway, from one of purely crisis management, to a focus more on structural issues and the competitiveness of all euro zone and European Union member states.
'Less Pessimistic'
Some figures from the real economy, Rehn allowed, such as extremely high unemployment in several euro-zone member states, remains alarming. Much of that, he said, is due to developments in the first half of 2012, including uncertainty over the Greek elections and doubts about Spain's banking sector. Rehn said he is "less pessimistic" than he was before the summer break because during the summer, euro-zone governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) helped stabilize the situation.
Still, he warned against being overly confident. "The greatest risk would be self-satisfaction," he told the paper.
Greece, the euro zone's most troubled member, faced another setback Wednesday when the US ratings agency Standard and Poor's downgraded its creditworthiness again, from a "CCC" rating to "SD," for "selective default," because of the current Greek debt buyback program. The program involves Athens repurchasing sovereign bonds for a fraction of their face value. Should the buyback be successful, analysts expect the raiting to return to the "CCC" level.
Rehn's comments are not the first time that he has voiced optimism about the future course of the euro crisis. In October, he told theBangkok Post that "the worst is over for the euro debt crisis." That buoyancy was quickly countered by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who said "I'm not so sure that the worst of the crisis is behind us."
Greece's Ambition
Meanwhile, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras told the German tabloid Bild: "We will stay in the euro."
A further debt haircut for Greece is unlikely, the prime minister said. "Our debt is now officially considered to be sustainable for the long term," he said. Samaras told Bild that his country had achieved more in the past two months than had been attempted over the last three decades.
"If you look at our reforms and our changes, you will understand that we are working on a success story," he told the paper. "That will soon be clear to everyone. And then no one will question our membership in the euro any more or a debt haircut."
and....
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/07/euro-crisis-over-jose-manuel-barroso
The euro crisis is over, declares José Manuel Barroso
European commission president's optimistic comments were in sharp contrast to new year message from Angela Merkel
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'I think we can say that the existential threat against the euro has essentially been overcome,' said Barroso. Photograph: Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images
The euro has been saved and the euro crisis is a thing of the past, European commission president José Manuel Barroso has declared.
But his optimistic comments and the prospect of looser rules for banks failed to lift markets, which ended a strong run of recent gains.
"I think we can say that the existential threat against the euro has essentially been overcome," Barroso said in Lisbon. "In 2013 the question won't be if the euro will, or will not, implode," he said.
Barroso has maintained an optimistic stance throughout the crisis, but his comments were in sharp contrast to the new year's message from German chancellor Angela Merkel, who told TV viewers last week that the currency zone faced another rocky 12 months.
City analysts are also deeply concerned that austerity measures demanded by Brussels as the price of bailout funds would lead to prolonged recessions in periphery countries and the need for steeper spending cuts.
Cuts to essential public services in Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal are expected to increase unemployment and lead to further social unrest.
Protests on the streets of Madrid on Monday highlighted the tensions inside the euro area after banner-waving protesters blamed Brussels, Berlin and the right of centre PP government of Mariano Rajoy for privatisations and cuts in healthcare spending.
Elga Bartsch, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said she was anxious that Barroso and his colleagues in Brussels would fail to resolve long-running disputes over the EU's new institutions.
"The euro crisis seems contained for now. But we think it is not resolved for good. In addressing the fundamental flaws in the euro's institutional set-up, progress on banking union will be key. Assuming no crisis escalation, the euro area should re-emerge from recession and return to sub-par growth. Politics is the main risk," she said.
Political deadlock, which has also characterised the reform agenda in Washington and Tokyo, could allow social unrest to grow and wreck any coherent reform plans, she said.
"An extended recession, diverging political positions and several elections create a difficult backdrop for in-depth reforms. We therefore expect only limited progress on an effective resolution of the crisis this year. We believe that progress on banking union, where preparations are under way for a Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and where discussions continue on harmonising, and possibly pooling, bank resolution and deposit guarantee schemes, will be key."
Merkel faces a general election in the autumn against a resurgent Social Democratic party (SPD) while the Italians are expected to go to the polls next month in an election that could see a revived Silvio Berlusconi with enough votes to block reform measures.
Global stock markets, which have warmed to the message that the euro crisis is abating, drifted lower as some investors sought to cash in on last week's strong gains and worries grew of more political brinkmanship in Washington. Major indices surged last week after the US Congress passed a bill to avoid a "fiscal cliff" combination of government spending cuts and tax increases.
The deal, however, remains incomplete. Politicians will face another deadline in two months to agree on more spending cuts while a debate over the country's $16 trillion (£9.9tn) debt ceiling is also looming.
Concerns that the eurozone will suffer another year of economic downturn after entering recession last year were heightened by comments from OECD boss Angel Gurría who said the 17 member zone could continue contracting into 2014.
Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.4% to 6064 while Germany's Dax was down over 0.7% to 7719.78. France's Cac-40 lost 0.8% to 3701.06.
Wall Street opened lower as well, with the Dow shedding 0.4% to 13,377.13 and the broader S&P 500 falling 0.4% to 1460.14.
The one bright spot for the markets was the banking sector, where stocks were up after global regulators eased new rules obliging lenders to set capital aside. The so-called Basel III rules are a set of new international standards to make sure banks protect themselves from the same trouble that caused the 2008 financial crash.
On Sunday, the officials setting those rules delayed the date by which banks needed to have certain amounts of cash readily available.
The move caused a jump in bank shares – Deutsche Bank was up 3% but the biggest gains were among ailing Spanish banks, which some had feared would struggle to meet the new cash requirements. Bankinter was up 8% and Banco Popular was 2.8% higher.
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