Assad’s chemical weapons units head out of Damascus toward Aleppo
DEBKAfile Special Report December 4, 2012, 9:51 PM (GMT+02:00)
Syrian chemical weapons
As NATO in Brussels gave the go-ahead Tuesday night, Dec. 4, for the deployment of Patriot surface-to-air missiles to protect Turkey against Syrian missiles,DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources reported that convoys of the Syrian army’s chemical weapons units headed out of Damascus under cover of dark and turned north up the road to Aleppo. Their destination is not yet known.
The convoys were ferrying self-propelled cannons for firing shells loaded with poisonous sarin gas.
Syrian President Bashar Assad had evidently decided to ignore the warnings President Barack Obama issued Monday night that there would be consequences if he or anyone in Syria resorted to chemical warfare and each would be held accountable.
The convoys were ferrying self-propelled cannons for firing shells loaded with poisonous sarin gas.
Syrian President Bashar Assad had evidently decided to ignore the warnings President Barack Obama issued Monday night that there would be consequences if he or anyone in Syria resorted to chemical warfare and each would be held accountable.
Our sources report that the Syrian ruler is aparently gambling dangerously on the Americans holding back from attacking the convoys as long as they deploy unconventional weapons, and would only react when they are used.
He is also taking advantage of the heavy winds, rain and cloud over this part of the eastern Mediterranean and counting on the weather to obstruct military operations against his chemical weapons units.
By the time the weather clears some time Thursday, the units will be in place in battle formation. Meanwhile, bombing the convoys in windy weather could cause the deadly gas to spread out of control in unpredictable directions.
In Brussels, a NATO official announced that the alliance had agreed to augment Turkey’s air-defense capabilities by deploying Patriot missiles to Turkey.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that by the time the missiles arrive, the Syrian chemical weapons units will almost certainly have reached their pre-planned positions. Furthermore, the Patriot air defense systems are not designed to counter artillery and would therefore be unable to stop shells loaded with poison gas.
In Brussels, a NATO official announced that the alliance had agreed to augment Turkey’s air-defense capabilities by deploying Patriot missiles to Turkey.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that by the time the missiles arrive, the Syrian chemical weapons units will almost certainly have reached their pre-planned positions. Furthermore, the Patriot air defense systems are not designed to counter artillery and would therefore be unable to stop shells loaded with poison gas.
DEBKAfile reported earlier Tuesday, Dec. 4.
US forces in the region, Israel, Turkey and Jordan were all braced Monday night, Dec. 3 for action against Syria in case Syrian President Bashar Assad ordered his army’s chemical warfare units to go into action against rebel and civilian targets his own country. None of the Middle East capitals are talking openly about this eventuality to avoiding causing panic.
However, oblique references to the peril and preparations for action came from US officials during Monday. White House spokesman Jay Carney said: “We have an increased concern about the possibility of the regime taking the desperate act of using its chemical weapons.” Such a move “would cross a red line for the United States.”
US forces in the region, Israel, Turkey and Jordan were all braced Monday night, Dec. 3 for action against Syria in case Syrian President Bashar Assad ordered his army’s chemical warfare units to go into action against rebel and civilian targets his own country. None of the Middle East capitals are talking openly about this eventuality to avoiding causing panic.
However, oblique references to the peril and preparations for action came from US officials during Monday. White House spokesman Jay Carney said: “We have an increased concern about the possibility of the regime taking the desperate act of using its chemical weapons.” Such a move “would cross a red line for the United States.”
Without going into specifics, Carney added: “We think it is important to prepare for all scenarios. Contingency planning is the responsible thing to do.”
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Prague was slightly more specific: Syrian action on chemical weapons remains a “red line” for the Obama administration, she said, and “would prompt action from the United States.”
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Prague was slightly more specific: Syrian action on chemical weapons remains a “red line” for the Obama administration, she said, and “would prompt action from the United States.”
Regarding contingencies, DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the American force in Jordan and Jordanian units, who have been training for two months in tactics against Syrian chemical warfare units, are on a high state of preparedness. So, too, are the three special US command centers set up in Turkey, Jordan and Israel for coordinating such operations.
An American official “with knowledge of the situation” told Wired Magazine that “engineers working for the Assad regime in Syria have begun combining the two chemical precursors needed to weaponize sarin gas.”
Anchored opposite the Syrian shore is the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group with 2,500 Marines. Facing it is the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s naval task force which too has hundreds of marines on its decks.
DEBKAfile’s sources quote high-ranking officers in the Israel Defense Forces’ Northern Command as saying: “The coming hours and days are extremely critical for Syria. The situation on our northern front could blow up any moment.” They did not elaborate.
Later Monday, as the United Nations regional humanitarian coordinator for Syria, Radhouane Nouicer announced the pullout of nonessential international staff “because of the security situation,” Secretary Clinton flew into Brussels from Prague to discuss with NATO foreign ministers the deployment of Patriot anti-missile batteries at 10 points on the Turkish-Syrian border - a massive number.NATO sources took note of the Syrian Foreign Ministry’s reply to the spreading reports. He said that the government “would not use chemical weapons, if it had them, against its own people under any circumstances.” This statement carried no promise about using such weapons against external forces, whether American, Turkish, Jordanian or Israeli.
In Istanbul, meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters at the end of his one-day visit: “What we are concerned about is Syria’s future. We don’t want the same mistakes to be repeated in the near future.” He went on to say: “We shall remember how some regimes supported the militants in Libya and how the situation ended with the killing of the American ambassador in Libya.”
This was meant by the Russian president as a warning to the US not to get involved in the Syrian crisis as it did in Libya.
This was meant by the Russian president as a warning to the US not to get involved in the Syrian crisis as it did in Libya.
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/12/syria-chemical-weapons-3/
Exclusive: U.S. Sees Syria Prepping Chemical Weapons for Possible Attack
- 12.03.12
- 12:57 PM
Kansas National Guardsmen practice decontamination techniques in the event of a chemical weapons attack. Photo: National Guard Bureau
Engineers working for the Assad regime in Syria have begun combining the two chemical precursors needed to weaponize sarin gas, an American official with knowledge of the situation tells Danger Room. International observers are now more worried than they’ve even been that the Damascus government could use its nerve agent stockpile to slaughter its own people.
The U.S. doesn’t know why the Syrian military made the move, which began in the middle of last week and is taking place in central Syria. Nor are they sure why the Assad government is transferring some weapons to different locations within the country, as the New York Times reported on Monday.
All that’s certain is that the arms have now been prepped to be used, should Assad order it.
“Physically, they’ve gotten to the point where the can load it up on a plane and drop it,” the official adds.
Sarin gas has two main chemical components — isopropanol, popularly known as rubbing alcohol, and methylphosphonyl difluoride. The Assad government has more than 500 metric tons of these precursors, which it ordinarily stores separately, in so-called “binary” form, in order to prevent an accidental release of nerve gas.
Last week, that changed. The Syrian military began combining some of the binaries. “They didn’t do it on the whole arsenal, just a modest quantity,” the official says. “We’re not sure what’s the intent.”
Back in July, the Assad regime publicly warned that it might use its chemical weapons to stop “external” forces from interfering in Syria’s bloody civil war. The announcement sparked a panic in the intelligence services of the U.S. and its allies, which stepped up their efforts to block shipments of precursors for those weapons from entering the country.
“This is a more serious moment than July,” according to the official.
At the Pentagon, chief spokesman George Little said that “any consideration of the use of chemical weapons by the use of the Syrian regime would be unacceptable.” In Prague, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the use of those weapons “a red line” that would prompt a U.S. response, which Little declined to elaborate upon.
“The Syrian regime must maintain security over their chemical weapons stockpiles and must not use chemical weapons against their own people,” Little said.
It’s unclear whether the chemical weapons movements is preparation for an outright offensive. But Mideastern nations and international groups are taking precautions, because of the dangers both conventional and not. The U.N. is pulling non-essential staff out of Damascus. Egypt ordered a commercial plane to Damascus to turn back around, and Israeli officials have quietly mooted a plan to the Jordanians for taking out the chemical sites, the Atlantic reported. Pentagon officials have suggested securing those sites would require some 75,000 troops — an indication of the Pentagon’sreluctance to deepen its involvement in Syria.
Assad’s position appears to have weakened recently. Fighting around the Syrian capital of Damascus has intensified, as rebel troops captured a half-dozen bases around the city. Damascus’ airport, a major logistics hub, is under threat, and the regime was forced to bring in “troop reinforcements to secure the route to the airport,” reported the Los Angeles Times. The rebel gains have been the most dramatic in the north and east. Over the course of last month, rebel forces overran more towns near the Turkish border and seized a major military base near the besieged city of Aleppo, which netted an arsenal of heavy weapons including tanks, howitzers and armored personnel vehicles. Assad has continued to retaliate, with more reports of cluster bomb attacks filtering out of Syria, and another round of air attacks on rebel-controlled villages.
Even Assad’s ability to strike the rebels from the air is under challenge. In two videos posted online in recent weeks, a Syrian air force Mi-8 helicopter operating near Aleppo was seen being shot down by a missile. In another set of videos that appeared online prior to the attack, the rebels have what appears to be SA-7 man-portable anti-aircraft weapons, or MANPADS. And those might not be the only ones the rebels have. A series of photos on rebel Facebook pages, collected by blogger Eliot Higgins at the Brown Moses blog – a go-to source for images of the Syrian conflict — rebels associated with extremist group Ansar al-Islam are shown posing with what appears to be incomplete SA-16 and SA-24 anti-aircraft missile tubes. Those Russian-made MANPADS are some of the most advanced on the market and pose a major proliferation risk.
On Thursday, Syria abruptly became disconnected from the internet, likely after the regime disabled the four cables that provide Syria with connectivity. The rebels use the internet not only to document regime atrocities but to disseminate training tactics and to spread their propaganda. Yet the regime also relies on the internet: It’s tried to hijack rebel hardware by spreading spyware in the form of fake security software. As the SecDev group internet security consultancy predicted last week, the outage ended quickly, as online monitor Renesys confirmed a “largely complete restoration of the Syrian Internet” by Saturday.
The U.S. official doesn’t believe the internet blackout was related to the combination of the chemical weapon binaries. And at the Pentagon, Defense Department spokesman Little said the online outage didn’t make a difference for the U.S. understanding of Assad’s dangerous weapons. “The U.S. government has good visibility into the chemical weapons program and we continue to monitor it,” Little said.
One U.S. official worried to CNN that “this puts us into the contingency of potential U.S. action.” But it’s far from clear what a U.S. response might look like. The Pentagon has suggested that securing Syria’s chemical stockpiles will be a massive undertaking, requiring some 75,000 troops, while the Afghanistan war drags on. NATO will decide a early as Tuesday whether to station Patriot missile batteries in Turkey, but that defensive measure is a far cry from a decision to seize Syria’s chemical weapons. Until recently, that seemed like an extremely remote possibility. But that was before Assad’s engineers began their poisonous combinations.
and......
US, Israel, Turkey, Jordan primed to strike if Assad activates chemical weapons
DEBKAfile Special Report December 3, 2012, 11:26 PM (GMT+02:00)
Preparing Syrian chemical weapons for use
US forces in the region, Israel, Turkey and Jordan were all braced Monday night, Dec. 3 for action against Syria in case Syrian President Bashar Assad ordered his army’s chemical warfare units to go into action against rebel and civilian targets his own country. None of the Middle East capitals are talking openly about this eventuality to avoiding causing panic.
However, oblique references to the peril and preparations for action came from US officials during Monday. White House spokesman Jay Carney said: “We have an increased concern about the possibility of the regime taking the desperate act of using its chemical weapons.” Such a move “would cross a red line for the United States.”
However, oblique references to the peril and preparations for action came from US officials during Monday. White House spokesman Jay Carney said: “We have an increased concern about the possibility of the regime taking the desperate act of using its chemical weapons.” Such a move “would cross a red line for the United States.”
Without going into specifics, Carney added: “We think it is important to prepare for all scenarios. Contingency planning is the responsible thing to do.”
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Prague was slightly more specific: Syrian action on chemical weapons remains a “red line” for the Obama administration, she said, and “would prompt action from the United States.”
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Prague was slightly more specific: Syrian action on chemical weapons remains a “red line” for the Obama administration, she said, and “would prompt action from the United States.”
Regarding contingencies, DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the American force in Jordan and Jordanian units, who have been training for two months in tactics against Syrian chemical warfare units, are on a high state of preparedness. So, too, are the three special US command centers set up in Turkey, Jordan and Israel for coordinating such operations.
An American official “with knowledge of the situation” told Wired Magazine that “engineers working for the Assad regime in Syria have begun combining the two chemical precursors needed to weaponize sarin gas.”
Anchored opposite the Syrian shore is the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group with 2,500 Marines. Facing it is the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s naval task force which too has hundreds of marines on its decks.
DEBKAfile’s sources quote high-ranking officers in the Israel Defense Forces’ Northern Command as saying: “The coming hours and days are extremely critical for Syria. The situation on our northern front could blow up any moment.” They did not elaborate.
Later Monday, as the United Nations regional humanitarian coordinator for Syria, Radhouane Nouicer announced the pullout of nonessential international staff “because of the security situation,” Secretary Clinton flew into Brussels from Prague to discuss with NATO foreign ministers the deployment of Patriot anti-missile batteries at 10 points on the Turkish-Syrian border - a massive number.NATO sources took note of the Syrian Foreign Ministry’s reply to the spreading reports. He said that the government “would not use chemical weapons, if it had them, against its own people under any circumstances.” This statement carried no promise about using such weapons against external forces, whether American, Turkish, Jordanian or Israeli.
In Istanbul, meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters at the end of his one-day visit: “What we are concerned about is Syria’s future. We don’t want the same mistakes to be repeated in the near future.” He went on to say: “We shall remember how some regimes supported the militants in Libya and how the situation ended with the killing of the American ambassador in Libya.”
This was meant by the Russian president as a warning to the US not to get involved in the Syrian crisis as it did in Libya.
Hmmm,,,,, UN getting out of Dodge City.......
UN to withdraw non-essential staff from Syria
Missions to conflict zone cancelled and remaining employees on standby to move, in final step before full-scale evacuation
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Jihad Makdissi has reportedly been sacked as Syria's foreign ministry spokesman, the first high-profile departure from the Assad regime in recent months. Photograph: Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images
The United Nations is preparing to evacuate all non-essential staff fromSyria, citing the "prevailing security situation" amid growing fears in Washington that the beleaguered regime is considering using chemical weapons.
The European Union also announced it was cutting back its activities in the country and on a fast-moving day of diplomatic and military action the Syrian government's foreign ministry spokesman, Jihad Makdissi, was reported to have defected.
The UN's undersecretary for safety and security, Gregory Starr, announced that the organisation had also cancelled all missions to Syria from abroad and suspended its activities inside the war-ravaged country. The decision marks the final step before a full-scale evacuation, a move that has not been ordered at any point during Syria's steady descent into chaos over the past 20 months.
Up to 25 of about 100 foreign staff may leave this week, it said, adding that more armoured vehicles were needed after attacks in recent weeks on humanitarian aid convoys and the hijacking of goods or vehicles. Some convoys were caught in crossfire between government and rebel forces, including an incident near the airport in which two staff were injured, it said.
The UN deploys more than 1,000 national and international staff in Syria, but movement and communications have become more difficult due to intensified fighting near the capital and a 48-hour internet blackout last week, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said.
While there has been intense fighting on the ground, particularly in Damascus, in the past few days, there is also growing international concern that the Syrian regime is contemplating using chemical weapons. Syria on Monday denied it planned to use its chemical weapons stockpile, after reports that the US had observed officials moving some components of the programme. "Syria has stressed repeatedly that it will not use these types of weapons, if they were available, under any circumstances against its people," the foreign ministry said.
The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, who had warned that Washington would take action if Syria used chemical weapons, said: "I am not going to telegraph any specifics what we do in the event of credible evidence that the Assad regime has resorted to using chemical weapons against their own people, but suffice to say we are certainly planning to take action if that eventuality were to occur."
Late on Monday, White House spokesman Jay Carney echoed Clinton's words. "We are concerned that in an increasingly beleaguered regime, having found its escalation of violence through conventional means inadequate, might be considering the use of chemical weapons against the Syrian people," he said. "And as the president has said, any use or proliferation of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime would cross a red line for the United States."
Turkish officials told the Guardian they have credible evidence that if the Syrian government's aerial bombardment against opposition-held areas fails to hold the rebels back, Bashar al-Assad's regime may resort to missiles and chemical weapons in a desperate bid to survive.
US and allied intelligence has also detected Syrian movement of chemical weapons components in recent days, a senior US defence official told the Associated Press. The source said intelligence officials had detected activity around more than one of Syria's chemical weapons sites in the last week.
The Assad regime saw the first high-profile departure from its ranks in recent months on Monday with the apparent defection of Makdissi. He has left Damascus, reportedly for London.
He had been a forceful defender of the regime since the earliest days of insurrection. However, the once prolific user of Twitter had not posted since late October and had been almost invisible in Syrian and foreign media for weeks.
The Beirut-based Hezbollah TV station al-Manar, claimed he had been removed because he was at odds with regime views. Diplomatic sources said he had defected.
Fighting continued in Damascus for a fifth day on Monday, with the international airport again receiving no flights, although unlike late last week it notionally remained open. Regime forces clashed with rebels nearby throughout the day.
Intense outgoing rocket fire could be heard from behind the Kass Youn mountain, on the city's eastern fringe. The rockets appeared to be aimed at rebel strongholds on the rural outskirts of the capital, particularly Darraya, which has remained a staunch opposition hub despite months of security sweeps by regime troops and bombing by jets.
The fighting in the capital is the most significant challenge to the power base of the Assad regime since mid-July, when rebel groups launched co-ordinated raids. That assault was put down by loyalist army divisions within a fortnight. The latest attack comes after steady gains in rebel capability in the north and near Damascus.
The EU said last night it was cutting back activity in Damascus. "The EU delegation has decided to reduce activities in Damascus to a minimum level due to the current security conditions," a spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Lady Ashton said.
A Lebanese MP confirmed on Monday that phone recordings relating to weapons transfers from Turkey to Syrian rebels, published in Lebanese media outlets, were of his voice.
Orkab Sakr, who is aligned to the Future political bloc of the exiled opposition leader Saad Hariri, confirmed that he had organised the transfer of weapons to Syria.
However, he said his activities for Hariri, who acts as the de facto head of the Sunni community in Syria as well as Lebanon, were limited to humanitarian missions.Save the Children claimed on Monday that an aid shortfall of more than $200m was hindering relief efforts as winter sets in. More than 400,000 refugees are thought to be living in temporary accommodation outside Syria, and many more are expected to flee.
And you can see the pressure on Morsi presently - and note the stooges being presented as " salvation "
ElBaradei: 'Egypt Is Threatened By 4 Time Bombs'
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The latest demonstrations are aimed at president Mohammed Mursi after he passed a decree last month that would give him dictatorial powers. Protestors have been demanding his resignation and oppose the new post-revolutionary constitution.
Amid these protests Egypt's stock market has been taking a beating. In a new Financial Times piece, Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the IAEA and head of Egypt's Al-Dostour (Constitution) party writes that "Mursi’s power now exceeds that of Hosni Mubarak at his dictatorial peak," and that Egypt is threatened by four time bombs:
"The country is threatened by four time bombs that have emerged under the leadership of the military and now the Brotherhood. Our economy is in free-fall; at the present pace we will default in six months, especially if the recent instability jeopardises a loan from the International Monetary Fund. Law and order remain elusive, and the impact on tourism and foreign investment is severe. Northern Sinai is turning into a battleground, threatened by jihadist groups coming from Afghanistan and elsewhere. And now, with the uproar over the draft constitution, the country is dangerously polarised.
...We are pressing Mr Morsi to rescind his latest draconian, self-serving decree, which has been condemned by the UN, many governments and international civil rights groups. We are rejecting as illegitimate the draft constitution and urging the president not to put it to a referendum."
Non-islamist parties in Egypt have come together to form a 'National Salvation Front' and have asked ElBaradei to be its coordinator. Meanwhile, international pressure is also mounting on Mursi to abandon his latest decree.
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