Monday, November 26, 2012

Iran and Syria war watch - November 26 , 2012 -- Keeping an eye on December !

http://www.debka.com/article/22566/US-led-NATO-intervention-begins-in-Syria-war-Patriots-in-Turkey


US-led NATO intervention begins in Syria war. Patriots in Turkey

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 27, 2012, 9:47 AM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Syrian rebels   radar & surveillance   Israel   Jordan   Saudi Arabia   NATO   US   Patriots   Turkey 
Patriot anti-missile batteries for Turkey
Patriot anti-missile batteries for Turkey
Tuesday, Nov. 27, the Middle East military spotlight swung around from Gaza to the Syrian war with steps for the start of US and NATO intervention in that conflict. Without spelling this out, a game changer began unfolding when a joint Turkish-NATO team began making a site survey  for the deployment of Patriot Air and Missile Defense Systems, manned by American military teams. The team, said the statement from Ankara, will assess where to station the missiles and how many would be needed. It reiterated that the system is “for defensive purposes” and not for a “no-fly zone or offensive operations,” but just for use “against an air or missile threat from Syria.”
 However, the Patriots in combination with already installed elements of the missile shield, will command an area beyond the Turkish-Syrian border - all of northern Syria up to and including the embattled towns of Aleppo and Homs, DEBKAfile’s military sources report.
Their presence will impede the operations of Assad’s most effective and lethal means of war against the rebels in that region – air force bombardment.
The positioning of US anti-missile missiles in Turkey coincides with the rebels’ success in destroying the Assad regime’s key air and radar stations in southern Syria and along the Jordanian border. The two thrusts add up to a coordinated military effort in northern and southern Syria to seize control of the skies in both regions from Assad’s control and push his forces back into central Syria.
A part of the US-Turkish plan affects Israel. Monday, DEBKAfile reported exclusively that in a resounding blow to Bashar Assad's ability to fight external enemies, Syrian rebels had destroyed the Assad regime’s most important electronic warning radar station facing Israel – M-1 – Monday, Nov. 26.
This Russian-built station monitored Israeli warplanes' takeoff and landing activities at air bases in the Negev and Hatzerim in the south and tracked them up to the Syrian border. The facility was designed to guide Syrian missiles targeting any point on the Israeli map, in sync with air defense facilities south of Damascus and on the Golan Heights. The radar’s range also covered naval movements in Mediterranean waters off the shores of Israel and Lebanon.
Western military sources told DEBKAfile that the destruction of this vital facility has blinded the two eyes which Syrian air, air defense and missile forces had trained on Israel. It has therefore crippled, though not completely dismantled, Bashar Assad’s ability to got to war against Israel, Jordan or Saudi Arabia.M-1 radar also swept all parts of Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia where the important Tabuk air base is situated. Deployed there in addition to the Saudi Air Force are French fighter-bombers ready to go to war against Syria.
M-1 also relayed current data on Israeli military movements to Hizballah and would have been a vital source of intelligence in a potential Lebanese Shiites offensive against the Jewish state.
The Syrian ruler and his spokesmen have frequently threatened since the eruption of the popular insurrection that if Assad had his back to the wall, the entire Middle East would go up in flames, especially Israel.
In the last two days, the Syrian rebels have made additional gains: They were able to capture areas abutting on the Jordanian border, excepting only the Ramtha border crossing. They also seized the Marj al-Sultan military air field southeast of Damascus and adjoining Syrian Army 4th Brigade bases.
Most of the men of the 82nd Infantry Brigade guarding M-1 were killed in the fighting, fled or were taken prisoner.
Our military sources notes that after M-1, the Assad regime still retains two key radar stations: M-2 in Shanshar south of Homs, which covers central and northern Syria; and M-3 near Latakia which keeps an eye on the northern region up to the Turkish border and the eastern Mediterranean up to Cyprus.
All three radar stations were linked to the Syrian general staff, air force, air defense, missile and navy operations rooms and fed them the essential real-time intelligence data needed for decision-making at the highest level. However, the loss of M-1 seriously hampers the Syria army’s capacity to take on Israel or Jordan.  








Syrian Rebels Seize Important Hydroelectric Dam in North

Rebels Claim 10 Children Killed in Cluster Bomb Attack in Damascus Suburb

by Jason Ditz, November 26, 2012
Syrian rebels continue to expand their gains in the north of the country today, havingcaptured the Tishrin Dam, an important hydroelectric dam on the Euphrates river. The Free Syrian Army (FSA), which led the attack, apparently seized large amounts of ammunition from the dam’s defenders.
50 miles east of Aleppo, Tishrin Dam is the newest of three hydroelectric dams on the river and produces roughly 5 percent of Syria’s annual electricity usage. Its capture adds to Syrian rebel holdings along the Turkish border.
Syrian military efforts in the north are mostly centered on keeping Aleppo from falling, while relying on air strikes against rebel bases elsewhere in the region. Rebels say attacks on bases along the Turkish border “may have something to do with increased weapons movements from Turkey.”
And while fighting today mostly centered around the north, rebels also claimed 10 children killed in the village of Deir al-Asafir, a suburb of Damascus. The rebels say a playground in the village was attacked with cluster bombs, but the Red Cross says theyhaven’t been able to confirm the incident.

and.....

Turkey: Patriot Missiles Won’t Be Used for Syria No-Fly Zone

Insists Move Counters 'Missile Threat' From Syria

by Jason Ditz, November 26, 2012
Turkish military officials are seeking to placate growing opposition to their request for Patriot Missiles from other NATO member nations to deploy along the Syrian border, insisting that they will not be used to establish any no-fly zones inside Syrian airspace.
Russian and Syrian officials have been critical of the call, particularly given Turkey’s open backing of certain rebel fighters in the ongoing Syrian Civil War, as an effort to insinuate NATO into the war more directly.
But with today’s comments it’s even less clear what the point of the deployment even is, as Turkey insists it aims at countering a “missile threat” from Syria, but other than a few stray artillery shells, which NATO officials say they can’t even confirm were fired by the Syrian military in the first place, there is no “threat,” and multi-million dollar missiles to shoot down random shells seems overkill at best.
Even some NATO member nations are scratching their heads at the proposal, though the leadership rubber stamped it with little public comment. Other than the further militarization of a border which the Syrian government increasingly doesn’t control in the first place, there seems no reason for the deployment.














http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-26/guest-post-iran-positioned-threaten-oil-lanes


Guest Post: Iran Positioned to Threaten Oil Lanes

Tyler Durden's picture




Submitted by Daniel J. Graeber ofOilPrice.com,
In mid-December, the U.S. military will have only one aircraft carrier positioned in the Persian Gulf region for the first time in two years. At the same time, the Iranian navy said it was kicking off a 10-day exercise in the region. Oil prices spiked when Iran early this year threatened to close oil-shipping lanes in the region. If talks scheduled for December between Tehran and the IAEA turn sour, there exists for Iran the potential to exploit the security vacuum in the region and use its defensive position for geopolitical gain.
The U.S. Navy announced that, for about two months, there will be only one aircraft carrier based in the Middle East region because of unexpected repair work needed on USS Nimitz.  A Navy commander said it was the "right thing to do" to leave the military one carrier short in the region, a firstsince December 2010. At the same time, the Iranian navy announced plans to conduct a 10-day drill to display what Tehran said was a way for the Islamic republic to "display its might and deterrence power."
In January, oil prices were moving fast beyond the $100 per barrel mark in part because of tensions with Iran, which had threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in response to increased sanctions pressure. The U.S. Energy Departmentdescribes the strait as the "world's most important oil checkpoint." Last year, about 17 million barrels oil per day traveled through the area, which represented about 35 percent of the world's maritime oil shipments. Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines in place to compensate for any closure, though each of those has their limitations.
Traders in January said tensions in the region would certainly lead to an increase in oil prices. While much of Iran's oil heads to Asian economies, the oil market is global, meaning U.S. economic power is linkedcritically to U.S. defensive power in the Middle East. U.S. Energy Department analystssaid any economic uncertainty in the oil markets would have a ripple effect on the global economy.
Iran and delegates from the International Atomic Energy Agency are set to resume negotiations Dec. 13. IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano has said there's "lots" of activity at the Parchin military complex near Tehran. Western diplomats have said they suspect Iran has taken steps to shield what could be illicit nuclear activity at the site. Tehran has said it was opposed to weapons of mass destruction, though Western diplomats have already said they expect few breakthroughs during next month's talks.
Iran could take advantage of the U.S. Navy's brief drawdown in the region to rattle its sabers in the gulf should the IAEA issue a damning nuclear assessment following December talks. With Iran's economy in decline, however, any decision to shut down the Strait of Hormuz could work against, not for, Tehran's favor. Nevertheless, the mere threat of a closure in January was in part responsible for a one-day 4.25 price increase for oil. Iran's naval drills are scheduled to get under way about a week after the IAEA talks.  Without a major U.S. defensive bulwark, the Iranians may have the deck stacked in their favor.


and Syria.....

Syrian rebels destroy Assad’s radar station facing Israel

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 26, 2012, 9:05 PM (GMT+02:00)
Syrian rebels captured Marj al-Sultan miitary base
Syrian rebels captured Marj al-Sultan miitary base

In a resounding blow to the combat capabilities of Bashar Assad’s army against external enemies, Syrian rebels destroyed their most important electronic warning radar station facing Israel – M-1 – Monday, Nov. 26, DEBKAfile reports exclusively from its military sources.
This Russian-built station monitored Israeli warplanes' takeoff and landing activities at air bases in the Negev and Hatzerim in the south and tracked them up to the Syrian border. The facility was designed to guide Syrian missiles targeting any point on the Israeli map, in sync with air defense facilities south of Damascus and on the Golan Heights. The radar’s range also covered naval movements in Mediterranean waters off the shores of Israel and Lebanon.
Western military sources told DEBKAfile that the destruction of this vital facility has blinded the two eyes which Syrian air, air defense and missile forces had trained on Israel. It has therefore crippled, though not completely dismantled, Bashar Assad’s ability to got to war against Israel, Jordan or Saudi Arabia.
M-1 radar also swept all parts of Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia where the important Tabuk air base is situated. Deployed there in addition to the Saudi Air Force are French fighter-bombers ready to go to war against Syria.
M-1 also relayed current data on Israeli military movements to Hizballah and would have been a vital source of intelligence in a potential Lebanese Shiites offensive against the Jewish state.
The Syrian ruler and his spokesmen have frequently threatened since the eruption of the popular insurrection that if Assad had his back to the wall, the entire Middle East would go up in flames, especially Israel.
In the last two days, the Syrian rebels have made additional gains: They were able to capture areas abutting on the Jordanian border, excepting only the Ramtha border crossing. They also seized the Marj al-Sultan military air field southeast of Damascus and adjoining Syrian Army 4th Brigade bases.
Most of the men of the 82nd Infantry Brigade guarding M-1 were killed in the fighting, fled or were taken prisoner.
Our military sources notes that after M-1, the Assad regime still retains two key radar stations: M-2 in Shanshar south of Homs, which covers central and northern Syria; and M-3 near Latakia which keeps an eye on the northern region up to the Turkish border and the eastern Mediterranean up to Cyprus.All three radar stations were linked to the Syrian general staff, air force, air defense, missile and navy operations rooms and fed them the essential real-time intelligence data needed for decision-making at the highest level. However, the loss of M-1 seriously hampers the Syria army’s capacity to take on Israel or Jordan.  



and.....

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/11/2012112616469990730.html

Syrian warplanes 'bombard rebel HQ'

Government forces' shells missed headquarters near Turkey, activists say, but sent hundreds fleeing across border.
Last Modified: 26 Nov 2012 17:42

Syrian government bombardment in Syria's northwest caused hundreds of panicked residents to flee [AFP]
Syrian warplanes have bombed a rebel headquarters near the Turkish border, missing their target but sending hundreds of Syrians fleeing across the frontier.
Monday’s attack on the Free Syrian Army (FSA) base in Atima, two kilometres from the border, came a day before Turkish and NATO officials were due to start assessing where to station surface-to-air missiles close to the 900km border.
Ahmed, an opposition activist who lives within a few blocks of the base, said: "Two Syrian fighter jets came and fired five rockets. Three have hit farm areas and another two hit buildings near the base."
Ahmed said it was the first time they targeted the FSA base set up by senior rebel Mustafa al-Sheikh when he crossed over to Syria from Turkey two months ago.
The strike was one of the closest to the Turkish border carried out by Syrian jets.
'Increased weapons movement'
Rebels fired anti-aircraft guns at the jets but they were flying too high to be hit, activists said.
Incessant shelling has left Maarat al-Numan in ruins, forcing many of 150,000 residents to flee [Al Jazeera]
"I think the reason for the raid may have something to do with increased weapons movements [from Turkey]," Ahmed said.
Several hundred Syrians fled into Turkey after the raid and were being taken care of by the Turkish army. At least two wounded people were taken across the border.
The Turkish Anatolian news agency said an anti-aircraft shell fired during clashes in another Syrian border town, Harem, hit the roof of a house in the Turkish district of Reyhanli, causing no casualties.
After 20 months of conflict, rebels have been tightening their hold on farmland and urban centres to the east and northeast of Damascus, and have seized a string of military bases in the past 10 days.
On Monday, Syrian rebels have reportedly captured a hydroelectric dam on the Euphrates River in the country's north after days of heavy fighting, activists said.
They have reportedly seized crates of ammunition from the government troops who were protecting the strategic facility in the latest battlefield success for opposition fighters.
Children killed
Activists said rebel fighters overran regime defences and captured the Tishrin Dam, near the town of Manbij, before dawn.

On Sunday, they captured a regime helicopter base outside Damascus before pulling back for fear of government airstrikes.
Amid the intensifying clashes, humanitarian crisis in Syria has been exacerbating, and the death toll continues to rise.
Activists on Sunday reported that a government air raid on a rebel-held village near the capital, Damascus, has killed 10 children as they played outdoors.
The children went out after a lull in fighting in Deir al-Asafir, a village 12km east of Damascus, when fighter jets struck, activists and residents said.
At least 172 people were reportedly killed on Sunday, including 14 children. Most of the deaths were reported in Damascus and its suburbs.

Al Jazeera is unable to independently verify reports of violence, as the Syrian government has placed strict restrictions on reporting.

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