War watch - Turkey / Syria , Afghanistan , Iran , Libya items...

Turkish PM Deescalates in Syria as Parliament Pushes for Action

Turkish Forces Strike Syria for a Second Day

by Jason Ditz, October 04, 2012

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In a news conference today, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to calm a frenzy of speculation about an impending war with Syria, insisting it is a war he doesn’t want. Erdogan’s comments reflect similar comments from NATO, Syria, and nations across the region, all of whom are hoping to see the potential powder-keg of a border war between them calmed down.

The message that this is a war no one wants apparently didn’t reach Turkey’s parliament, however, and it quickly and overwhelminglyapproved a resolution today allowing the military to conduct unrestricted military operations inside Syria.

Turkey has been repositioning itself as a regional power for years, and with its overwhelming military edge over the Assad regime some measure of bellicosity isn’t surprising. Still, while Turkey seems comfortable in a role of facilitating the rebels in Syria, involving itself in a full-scale shooting war would turn an already dubious policy into a potential disaster, alienating nationalist factions in the rebellion, riling up Syria’s Kurdish community and ruining their already strained relationships with Iran and Iraq.

Ergodan seems to get this, and while the Turkish military continued to strike targets in Syria today, it seems virtually certain that the situation is calming down. What the parliament’s disconnect means for their relationship with the Turkish leadership, however, remains to be seen.

• Turkey Continues Artillery Strikes, Several Syrian Soldiers Killed - October 4th, 2012

and Afghanistan meanders along......

Afghan Govt: Insider Attacks Are ‘Terrorism’ Not Disputes

Claims Majority of Attacks Are Caused by 'Infiltrators'

by Jason Ditz, October 04, 2012

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The Pentagon has long tried to downplay the number of “insider attacks” which have been carried out by the Taliban, initially putting them at 10 percent of the overall green-on-blue killings and later bumping that up to a modest 25 percent.

The Afghan Foreign Ministry however sought to change this perception today, saying that a majority of the attacks are actually “terrorist infiltration” by the Taliban and that only as small portion of the shootings can be attributed to “cultural grievances.”

There doesn’t seem to be solid evidence for either claim, however. Though certainly there have been some “infiltration” style attacks and there have also clearly been attacks that were the result of arguments gone out of hand, there doesn’t seem to be solid data on most of the attacks, at least not that has been made available to the public.

Both sides have an agenda with their claims, with the US hoping to spin the matter as something the Afghan government can get a handle on with a little “cultural sensitivity” training and the Afghan government trying to insist it isn’t at fault. The Taliban of course has also been keen to claim credit for every single attack to make themselves out to be an even bigger threat, and with little to no independent media in Afghanistan it is difficult to say which, if any, of the three is actually right in their claims.

Narrative keeps shifting regarding what happened regarding the Embassies....

US Deployed Special Forces Across Northern Africa Embassies Ahead of Benghazi

Advance Teams Were Deployed Months Before Attack

by Jason Ditz, October 04, 2012

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The Obama Administration continues to insist, in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary, that there was no way they could have seen the attack on the Benghazi Consulate coming. Yet they clearly saw something coming.

Officials are now admitting that the White House signed off on a plan a year ago to build up special forces task forces around northern Africa, and had been deploying troops at embassies across the region for months in the lead-up to Benghazi.

They say the network of troops was “too new” to react to the Benghazi attack, but concede that the build-up was entirely a function of concerns that al-Qaeda was posing a growing threat across the region. Congress is also blasting the administration for not escalating into the region sooner and with more troops, arguing this might conceivably have prevented the attack.

Lost in the entire discussion is that the whole reason al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the north African version, is getting so much stronger is because the US attacked Libya last year, imposing a regime change that led to widespread looting of advanced weapons. AQIM openly bragged that they were the “main beneficiaries” of the regime change in Libya.

• Three Weeks Later: US Investigators Finally Reach Benghazi - October 4th, 2012
• State Dept Downplays Docs Littered All Over Unguarded Benghazi Consulate - October 4th, 2012

Iran news and views to consider....

http://www.debka.com/article/22412/Defecting-Iranian-cameraman-brings-CIA-priceless-film-of-secret-nuclear-sites-

( impressive work by the CIA if accurate... ) 

Defecting Iranian cameraman brings CIA priceless film of secret nuclear sites

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 5, 2012, 1:01 AM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  Iranian defector   CIA   Ahmadinejad   Intelligence   Iran nuclear 

Hassan Golbankhan and Rev Guards chiefs

DEBKAfilereveals one of the CIA’s most dramatic scoops in many years, and epic disaster for Iran. Our most exclusive Iranian and intelligence sources disclose that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s personal cameraman, Hassan Golkhanban, who defected from his UN entourage in New York on Oct. 1, brought with him an intelligence treasure trove of up-to-date photographs and videos of top Iranian leaders visiting their most sensitive and secret nuclear and missile sites.
The cameraman, who is in his 40s, is staying at an undisclosed address, presumably a CIA safe house under close guard.
He stayed behind when Ahmadinejad, after his UN speech, departed New York with his 140-strong entourage. For some years, Golkhanban worked not just as a news cameraman but personally recorded visits by the Iranian president and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of top-secret nuclear facilities and Revolutionary Guards installations.
When he left Tehran in the president’s party, his luggage was not searched and so he was able to bring out two suitcases packed with precious film and deliver it safely into waiting hands in New York.
The Iranian cameraman has given US intelligence the most complete and updated footage it has ever obtained of the interiors of Iran’s top secret military facilities and various nuclear installations, including some never revealed to nuclear watchdog inspectors. Among them are exclusive interior shots of the Natanz nuclear complex, the Fordo underground enrichment plant, the Parchin military complex and the small Amir-Abad research reactor in Tehran.
Some of the film depicts Revolutionary Guards and military industry chiefs explaining in detail to the president or supreme leader the working of secret equipment on view. Golkhanban recorded their voices.

Our sources also disclose that, in late September, he took the precaution of sending his wife and two children out of Iran on the pretext of a family visit to Turkey. They are most likely on their way to the United States by now.

From his years as a member of the loyal Bassij militia, the cameraman earned the complete trust of Iran’s security services and was able to reach his professional pinnacle as personal photographer for the two most eminent figures in the country, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, with the task of recording their most confidential pursuits.

This was his second visit to New York. The first time, a year ago, US intelligence was able to make contact and persuade him to defect with his stock of priceless photos and film.

Although Golkhanban’s defection to the United States and request for asylum was disclosed to the media some days ago, Tehran has not made any comment.

and...

http://www.juancole.com/2012/10/on-how-despite-the-currency-crisis-irans-state-revenues-are-not-collapsing.html

On How Despite the Currency Crisis Iran’s State Revenues are not Collapsing

Posted on 10/05/2012 by Juan

The steep decline of the Iranian rial against the dollar has produced a lot of extravagant claims about the collapse of the Iranian economy. While there is no doubt that Iran is seeing a form of hyper-inflation that is devastating to the people there, the government is in no danger of not having money.

Because of slowed demand attendant on the bad world economy and because some producers (including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and North Dakota) have managed to produce some extra petroleum, the US/European Union/ Israeli financial blockade on Iranian petroleum has had some success for the first time in 2012.

However, things are not as bad as all that for the Iranian government, as opposed to the people. As Djavad Salehi-Esfahani explains, Iran is cushioned from the worst effects of a declining rial by the government’s ability to use its oil income to subsidize essential imports. The situation is therefore not comparable to other instances of hyperinflation where all imports had to be imported by consumers at the new, higher prices (vis-a-vis the local currency).

The Iranian government is coming off several years of magnificent oil profits. In 2004, the government earned $37 billion from its petroleum, and no one thought it was in crisis then. It could arguably go back to that level and get along just fine. But in 2005-2006 the income rose to an average of $46 billion a year. Then the oil price boom began. In 2007 and 2008, they brought in a little over $80 bn a year, each year! That is almost a doubling of their normal income earlier in the decade. In 2009-2010 the price fell a bit and Iran brought in about $70 bn. a year those two years. But 2011 saw another big run-up in oil prices, and Iran received an astounding $95 bn. last year.

The Europeans started refusing to buy Iranian petroleum as of July 1, and world supply and demand is such that in the short term, Iran may just export less oil this year. But 60% of its market is in Asia, and they are buying. The US estimates that Iran will have an oil income of $70 billion in 2012. That is par for the course in recent non-boom years, and even if it were less, it would still be above 2006 levels. 2006 levels probably wouldn’t be a hardship for the government (just as they weren’t in 2006).

So far from collapsing, the Iranian state oil income has been incredibly high in recent years and continues to be high compared to a decade ago. See this chart:

Moreover, the likelihood that Iran can be driven into penury over the next couple of years by a Western oil boycott strikes me as low. The US Department of Energy expects world production to rise from 89 million barrels a day in 2012 to 90 million barrels a day in 2013. But if Asian demand returns (and if more Indians and Chinese buy cars, as they have in fact been doing), then world demand could easily exceed production. Even now, demand is historically high, producing Brent crude prices that have been over $100 a barrel for a long time. A year or two from now, the world may soon end up wanting the half a million or million barrels a day it is now telling Iran to keep in the ground. Saudi production cannot be increased, and it is unclear that near-term Iraqi increases are likely on any kind of scale. Many oil producers face constant threats of disruption from labor actions and other causes. Betting on no interruptions of production anywhere, significant production increases and continued low demand– all them necessary if the oil blockade on Iran is to be effective in the medium term — would in my view be foolish.

Some of Iran’s reduced exports come from having to find new ways of shipping the oil (it had been exporting roughly 2.5 million barrels a day out of a 3.8 million barrel a day production, and the government claims, at least, to be exporting 2 mn. b/d in September, way up from the July dip when Europe cut Iran off).

Iran is now sending petroleum to China and South Korea in Iranian-owned tankers and covering the insurance on the shipments itself. But Iran had a limited tanker fleet and so the shipments are sometimes late. Iran is solving this problem by simply buying 12 supertankers from China (the first has just arrived). Supertankers are $50-$100 million and so well within Iran’s ability to purchase and run. South Korea has just started back up its oil imports from Iran, of 200,000 barrels a day, after the insurance problem was solved. The US wants South Korea and others to cut back on Iran imports; but since Europe is snarfing up petroleum from other sources now that it is boycotting Iran, South Korea and others may find it difficult to fulfill their needs without buying from Iran.

Because the US Department of the Treasury has kicked Iran off most international bank exchanges, Iran may have to accept payments in Chinese currency or even in a relatively soft currency like the India rupee (which, however, is hardening). That arrangement would lock Iran into buying Chinese and Indian goods where at all possible, in preference to European ones (or finding exporters willing to take rinminbi). So Europe’s step in ceasing imports of Iranian oil may cost the EU member nations dearly in lost exports to Iran (nor can a lot of European countries afford to lose the Iranian market).

The long and the short of it is that the Iranian state’s external revenues are still perfectly healthy, despite the rial currency crisis and all the damage it is doing to the Iranian middle and business classes. Because of the state’s currency reserves, moreover, it can mitigate the impact of the currency crisis on key imports.

It is a sad, desperate scene for consumers, but the ayatollahs are still rolling in dough.

and news items from Libya....

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012\10\05\story_5-10-2012_pg4_4

Libyan protesters storm assembly over cabinet line-up

* Protesters force cancellation of national assembly session

* Congress spokesman says several members voice dissatisfaction with nominations

TRIPOLI: Protesters who believed their town was underrepresented in a proposed Libyan government stormed the national assembly on Thursday as it prepared to scrutinise the prime minister-elect’s nominations.

Libya’s first democratic government since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi has already proved controversial as Mustafa Abushagur’s nominees exclude the biggest party in congress, the liberal National Forces Alliance (NFA). Between 100 and 150 demonstrators from the western town of Zawiyah walked into the hall where congress meets, forcing the cancellation of a session to study the nominations.

“After we heard the list, everyone in Zawiyah was angry. Some even began protesting in Zawiyah’s main square last night,” said Nuri Shambi, who travelled 50 km to the capital Tripoli to voice his anger. “Abushagur said he would form a coalition government, that he would look at experience. Zawiyah proposed candidates for oil minister, but he’s brought in someone who is not well known.”

The protesters eventually left the hall but remained outside. A session was set for later on Thursday to determine the procedure for voting on the candidates in an assembly still finding its feet after Libya’s first democratic election in July. Abushagur’s line-up includes many unknown names, including the proposed oil minister, Mabrouk Issa Abu Harroura. 

While Abushaghur says he is politically “neutral”, the line-up is said to include several members of the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood. Ibrahim al-Gharyani, head of the NFA in congress, said there were no candidates from his alliance. Congress spokesman Omar Hmaidan said several congress members had already voiced dissatisfaction with the nominations. Abushagur can propose alternatives until Sunday if any choices are rejected.

The NFA’s leader, wartime rebel prime minister Mahmoud Jibril, lost out narrowly to Abushagur in the congress vote for the next head of government. Although the NFA is easily the biggest political grouping with 39 out of the 80 party seats in the assembly, another 120 seats are in the hands of independents whose leanings may start to become clear as they vote on the cabinet. reuters

Abushagur withdraws cabinet proposals as Zawia protestors invade Congress

By Michel Cousins and Sami Zaptia.

Tripoli, 4 October:

Prime minister-elect Mustafa Abushagur has withdrawn his cabinet list submitted to the General National Congress yesterday, Wednesday, following angry opposition to it from Congress members. They accused him of not having negotiated with them and insisted that several names were unacceptable.

At one point last night, Wednesday, as a many as 50 members walked out of Congress in protest. Most were members of Mahmoud Jibril’s National Forces Alliance (NFA) which was not included in the new cabinet. Not all of the NFA, however, walked out.

A number of those who did, as well as some independents, called for Abushagur to be sacked as the country’s next prime minister.

The cabinet list had been due to be put to the Congress today to vote on.  However, according to several Congress members, Abushagur  “sensing the mood of Congress”, (as one of them put it) decided to make significant changes before representing to Congress before the deadline of 7 October.

He is now due to present it on Saturday.

Discussions on the matter with him had continued until three o’clock on Thursday morning, according to a Congressman who had been at the meeting.

Congress met later in the morning to continue discussions on the crisis and whether or not they should vote on the names on the list. There was split between those who wanted to do so and those who wanted to wait for a new list.

However, proceedings were then thrown into chaos when some 200 militiamen from Zawia managed to break into the Congress hall despite the strong military presence outside. They complained that the new government did not include anyone from the town. They demanded Abushagur be sacked and that the next government include a Zawia representative.

Ironically, the incursion appears to have calmed tempers and rallied support for the prime minister-elect. “We could not have agreed to their demands,” a member of Congress told the Libya Herald. “We accept freedom of expression but not such action.” If Congress had agreed, he said, “every other town and tribe would then wanted to do the same.”

As a result Congress decided to postpone the session. During the afternoon, several Congressmen told the Libya Herald they did not know what the next step would be.

The political crisis appears to have damaged Abushagur’s credibility.

Congressmen were talking today of a shambles that had clearly demonstrated his political naivety. “We’re being led not by politicians or leaders, but by academics”, said one independent Congressmen who accused the Prime Minister-elect of negotiating only with the NFA and the Muslim Brotherhood’s Justice and Construction Party but not with the independents.

Alaeddin Mgariaf, the independent Congressmen from Benghazi, likened Abushagur and others in positions of power to “a group of people going on a picnic, not leaders”.

Another Congressman accused the Prime Minister-elect and the present Prime Minister Abdurrahim Al-Kib of being “out of touch”. They had been too long away from Libya, he said. They were “not informed” about the country. However, he vigorously denied the suggestion that Abushagur had not negotiated his list.

“He almost killed himself consulting”, he said, saying that anyone had been able to submit a name.  Abushagur had taken opinions from all sections with Congress”, he insisted. Five hundred names, he said, had been submitted and assessed. But the problem was that the process had been too academic. It was “academically good” but “politically poor”.

Nonetheless, he thought that, despite being weakened, Abushagur would survive. “His chances are still alive”, he said.