For those in the path of Sandy , please take the time to get ready today ! Landfall seems to be Tuesday morning and most likely will be New Jersey - however , this is an extremely large storm and its effects will be widespread..... As a recap , I have reposted my prior post which has items of note through Saturday... Of particular note , please read the article at the top " A More Perfect Storm " which highlights the dangers from Sandy.

http://fredw-catharsisours.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-watch.html

* * *

4.1 million without power across the eastern US thanks to #Sandy

Hurricane Central @twc_hurricane

RT @EricFisherTWC: Half a million customers without power now in Southern New England. Over 2.2M total. #Sandy

Hurricane Central @twc_hurricane

Due to water rise RT @NYCMayorsOffice: .@ConEdison says they may need to shut down underground networks in Lower Manhattan & Brooklyn #Sandy

Shawn Reynolds @TWC_Shawn

#Sandy RT @L0gg0l BUILDING COLLAPSE IN MANHATTAN, FDNY STARTING EVAC -- SCANNER

Hurricane Central @twc_hurricane

1.6 million customers without power now due to Hurricane #Sandy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-29/real-time-new-york-city-storm-surge-tracker
( 13.81 feet as of 9.00 pm - so this is rapidly rising and already a record at the Battery by two feet .... click tracker to update)

Real-Time New York City Storm Surge Tracker

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2012 18:48 -0400

New York City

NOAA

Curious how many feet of water the rats in downtown NYC are under right now? The real-time answer is available after the jump below, courtesy of the NOAA and this tide height tracker at New York's Battery.

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/10/baba-booey-new-york-harbor-entrance.html

Baba Booey - New York Harbor Entrance Buoy Data Now Clocking In At 30 Feet

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-29/new-york-city-peak-threat-hours-7-10-pm-when-sandy-may-partially-flood-subway-system

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-29/con-ed-cuts-power-lower-manhattan

Financial District Goes Dark As Con Ed Cuts Power To Lower Manhattan

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2012 19:05 -0400

As we warned earlier - due to the flooding from the storm surge - ConEd has cut power to parts of lower Manhattan:

*CON EDISON CUT POWER TO PARTS OF LOWER MANHATTAN, SPOKESMAN SAY
*CON EDISON CUT POWER EAST OF BROADWAY, SOUTH OF WALL ST TO TIP
*POWER CUT BETWEEN WALL, FRANKFORT, WILLIAMS & EAST RIVER :ED US
*CON EDISON CUT POWER TO PROTECT LINES FROM HURRICANE FLOODING

'Dark Pools' comes to mind as the financial district is blacked out.

New York City Peak Threat Hours: 7-10 PM When The Flooding Begins

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2012 16:26 -0400

Full Moon

National Weather Service

New York City

NOAA

As meteorologists have been repeating all day, the biggest threat for NYC is not so much the rain, or even the wind, dangling cranes hundreds of feet above ground notwithstanding, but the storm surge. The threat here is that Hurricane Sandy will hit land just as the tide comes in, resulting in a double whammy which Wunderground has called a "gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping." Add to this the impact of the full moon, which means that high tide will be 5% higher than average for the month, and Wunderground's conclusion is inevitable: "This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew." How high are we talking:Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level... According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood." Luckily for all, the NY Fed's tungsten gold, which is 50 feet below sea level (and 80 feet below the surface) and is in the Zone C flood evacuation area, will be perfectly "safe." And after all tungsten gold will never just float away.

From Wundeground:

Sandy already producing a record storm surge

The National Weather Service in Atlantic City, NJ said that isolated record storm surge flooding already occurred along portions of the New Jersey coast with this morning's 7:30 am EDT high tide cycle. As the tide goes out late this morning and this afternoon, water levels will fall, since the difference in water levels between low tide and high tide is about 5'. However, this evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm - 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 - 3" to water levels. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood. The record highest storm tide at The Battery was 10.5', set on September 15, 1960, during Hurricane Donna.

Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 11' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in NYC is predicting a 10 - 12' storm tide at The Battery during tonight's 9 pm high tide cycle.

‏@twcMariaLaRosa

Part of Atlantic City's boardwalk (built to hold up a firetruck) obliterated! Pic from a media friend #Sandy #ACY #NJwxpic.twitter.com/MDkdEtMg

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/livesandyvideo#Sandy

Watch live: Raw video of Hurricane Sandy from high above New York City

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-29/con-ed-expects-record-outages-tides-threaten-shut-down-lower-manhattan

Con Ed Expects 'Record' Outages As Tides Threaten Shut Down In Lower Manhattan

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2012 14:02 -0400

Con Ed's SVP John Miksad just hosted a call with some relatively ominous comments. As they expect record outages from wind and rain damage, it is the tides and the flooding that is of most concern as the executive noted that they may cut power to Brooklyn and Lower Manhattan if tides reach forecast ranges:

*CON ED EXPECTING `RECORD' OUTAGES FROM WIND, RAIN DAMAGE :ED US
*CON ED MAY SHUT DOWN LOWER MANHATTAN SYSTEM DUE TO HIGH TIDES
- *CON ED: `NOT OKAY' IF TIDES REACH FORECAST 10-12 FOOT LEVEL
- *CON ED: 6,500 NYC BUILDINGS, 2800 BROOKLYN CUSTOMERS AFFECTED
Flood surge map and power outage links below...

Click Map for link to strom surge forecasts...

and here is NOAA's current forecast for tides...

and outages so far:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-29/escape-new-york-becoming-problematic-holland-brooklyn-battery-tunnels-close

Escape From New York Becoming Problematic As Holland, Brooklyn Battery Tunnels Close

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2012 10:41 -0400

Andrew Cuomo

Remember the wetsuit purchased many years ago for that trip to Hawaii and never used once? It may be time to find where it is and clean it up, as "escaping from New York", in a worst case scenario is getting so problematic, swimming through the Hudson or East Rivers may soon be the only option. Moments ago, in a press conference, Andrew Cuomo reported that while the storm is behaving as predicted, as of 2pm today both the Holland and Brooklyn Battery tunnels will be closed. And if these are down, the Lincoln and Queens-Midtown can't be far behind, especially if the flood continues as expected.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=213283

For Those Who Are Ignoring Sandy

I want to point out a couple of things.
First, I rode out Ivan here in Niceville. In my house. With boards up. On the water.
It was a 940mb storm at landfall, approximately. We were about 80 miles east of landfall and got our asses kicked. There was no material damage to our residence, but we took considerable preparations in advance of the storm, and we also had a fair bit of luck. Had we not prepared our garage doors would have been blown in (among other things) and that would have been that.
Trust me when I tell you that 120mph winds make pine cones flung against the boarded-up windows sound like someone is detonating small bombs on the outside of the building. At the time I had no clue what it was that was making the noise; it was only after the storm was over that it became obvious.
I bring this up because there are credible models showing a 935mb pressure at impact. Right now the claim is 950mb. Yes, I know the winds are "only" claimed to be 75mph.
950 is usually solidly into the Cat 3 windspeed range.
I know that this is a different situation as the windfield has spread out a lot and the storm is transitioning to an extropical system. Nonetheless pressure gradient makes storms what they are, and this storm has a hell of a gradient right now and is likely to maintain that right up until it comes ashore, at which point it will also be interacting with a nasty cold front.
Second, surge is likely to be in the 10-15' range. On top of that are the waves, particularly if there is fetch out from wherever you are. "Fetch" is simply open water without land in the middle over which the wind can blow toward you; if there's a mile of it that's a problem. If there's 10 miles of it you could have 6-10' seas on top of the 15' surge. Now you better be 25-30' above sea level or you're going to flood. And by the way, a 5' wave willbreach a window, especially when there's a bunch of trees -- or a car or three -- embedded in it. It will also find any sort of penetration, crack or hole through which that water can flow.
If you have open exposure to the sea, either "for real" or effectively (e.g. you can't see land on the other side) then with 75mph+ winds the seas are going to be.... "angry."
In short please take this storm seriously. I know Irene was a dud compared with the predictions, but this one is not likely to be. I don't like that pressure at all, and by tomorrow it's going to be coming your direction whether you're ready or not. Small differences in exactly where it comes in can make for a big difference in the exact direction of the wind and change flooding potential severely; as little as a 20 mile error in exactly where the center hits can make a difference between getting no flooding and getting 20' of water up your nose.
Be safe out there.

http://www.infowars.com/hurricane-sandy-may-score-a-direct-hit-on-spent-fuel-pools-at-nuclear-plant/

Hurricane Sandy May Score a Direct Hit On Spent Fuel Pools at Nuclear Plant

Washington’s Blog
Oct 29, 2012

Preface: We hope and expect that the severity of the hurricane is being overblown, and that the nuclear plants in the Northeast will ride out the storm without any incident.

We noted Friday that more than a dozen nuclear plants are near Hurricane Sandy’s path.

Nuclear expert Arnie Gundersen says that there are actually 26 nuclear plants in the path of the hurricane, and that the spent fuel pools in the plants don’t have backup pumps (summary via EneNews):

You’ll hear in the next 2 days, “We’ve safely shutdown the plant”

What Fukushima taught us is that doesn’t stop the decay heat

You need the diesels to keep the reactors cool

26 plants in the East Coast are in the area where Sandy is likely to hit

Fuel pools not cooled by diesels, no one wanted to buy them

If recent refuel, hot fuel will throw off more and more moisture from pool

Reactor buildings not meant to handle the high humidity

Fuel pool liner not really designed to approach boiling water, may unzip if water gets too hot

A lot of problems with allowing fuel pool to over

Need water in around 2 days if hot fuel in pool

The only fall-back if power is lost is to let fuel pools heat up

EneNews also reports that the hurricane is forecast to directly hit the Oyster Creek nuclear plant and that – while the plant is currently shut down for refueling – it still might very well have new, very hot fuel in the fuel pools:

Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station is located near New Jersey’s shoreline in an area forecast to take a direct hit from Hurricane Sandy: “The current ‘track center’ for the landfall path is central New Jersey pointing Sandy in a path that would hit Oyster Creek nuclear station.” -SimplyInfo

With Oyster Creek shut down for refueling starting last week, hot fuel may have been placed in the fuel pool quite recently.

The unit at Oyster Creek is the same as Fukushima Daiichi No. 1: “Oyster Creek is one of the oldest US nuclear plants and is the same design as Fukushima unit 1.”-SimplyInfo

Remember, Fukushima reactor number 4 was shut down for maintenance when the Japanese earthquake hit. And yet the fuel pools at reactor 4 are in such precarious condition that they pose a giantthreat to humanity.

Hurricane Sandy is not very intense in terms of wind speed. But the storm is so large, that storm surges could be 11 feet high.

Obviously, the path of the hurricane could veer substantially, and may not hit Oyster Creek after all … weather forecasting is not an exact science. But Gundersen argues that nuclear plants in Pennsylvania and New Jersey are in the most danger given current projections.

As we noted Friday, the Salem and Hope Creek plants in New Jersey are also near the path of the hurricane, as are the following plants in Pennsylvania:

Peach Bottom

Limerick

Three Mile Island

Susquehanna

Another concern is the Millstone plant in Connecticut:

EneNews summarizes the situation in a post entitled “Officials in Connecticut warn of giant 16-foot storm surge, with 15-foot waves on top of that — State’s nuclear plant directly exposed on ocean“:

The Hour:

In a message sent to residents Sunday afternoon, [Norwalk, Connecticut] Mayor Richard A. Moccia warned of a 16-foot storm surge brought to land by Hurricane Sandy. [...] “I have declared a state of emergency in the City,” he said. “Coastal flooding from this event will peak at midnight on Monday night and will be worse than any flooding Norwalk has experienced in recent history. If you have ever experienced flooding before it is likely you will be flooded in this storm.” Moccia said that the storm will be equal to a Category 4 hurricane and will produce 16 foot storm surges.

Westport Now:

“The mood during the meeting was tense as federal officials estimated a 13-foot storm surge for Westport [Connecticut] -– 3 or 4 feet higher that the inundation from Storm Irene last year,” a news release said. “This is an unprecedented storm,” said [First Selectman Gordon Joseloff], following his team’s briefing with federal and state disaster preparedness officials. “This will be a storm of long duration, high winds and record-setting flooding. Take Storm Irene from last year and double it.” he said. [...] The town is bracing for at least three waves of flooding, beginning with the high tide at midnight Sunday, the announcement said. [... An] estimated 15-foot wind-driven waves [...] are expected on top of the storm surge.

According to the Weather Channel’s latest map, a 6 to 11 foot water level rise is forecast for the Connecticut coastline. This is the highest increase of any area in the US. The state’s only nuclear power plant is located directly on the ocean, see marker ‘A’ below:

****

http://www.infowars.com/panic-buying-grips-the-east-coast-mad-rush-for-supplies-ahead-of-mega-storm/

Panic Buying Grips the East Coast: Mad Rush for Supplies Ahead of Mega-Storm

Mac Slavo
SHTFPlan.com
Oct 29, 2012

While many people are still trying to make up their minds about the potential severity of the stormthreatening the U.S. northeast, it’s not stopping millions of concerned residents from racing to to grocery stores, gas stations and hardware depots in droves.

If you’ve ever wanted to know what it looks like when the 99% of Americans who have failed to prepare for a disaster wake up and realize they are facing a major crisis take a look at what’s happening on the east coast ahead of Hurricane Sandy.

Good luck buying lanterns, generators, propane, or – if you are really unprepared – rain boots and batteries in areas in the path of Hurricane Sandy as it bears down on the U.S. East Coast.

The approach of the gigantic storm, which is expected to come ashore on Monday night set off a weekend scramble for supplies from Virginia to New England, causing long lines at gas stations, bare shelves at hardware and home-supply shops, and a run on bread, bottled water and canned foods.

“It’s been crazy. We’re the only one open who still has gas,” said Karen Tripodi, a customer service representative at Cumberland Farms, a gas station and market in Newington, Connecticut.

“They’re coming in for propane, ice, water, milk and cigarettes.”

In Hartford Connecticut on Saturday, from the shoreline to well inland, residents and business owners scrambled to get ready for Sandy.

Preparations for the storm took place all over the state, as banks, pharmacies, home improvement centers, electronics stores, pet shops and supermarkets opened Saturday to lines of customers stocking up.

Early birds got D batteries, flashlights, propane refills, bottled water and other sought-after storm supplies. Those arriving later had to deal with bigger crowds, dwindling supplies and, in some cases, empty shelves.

Meteorologists are warning residents across over 600 miles of coastline from Wilmington, Delaware to Bangor, Maine that they need to brace for widespread power outages, sustained high winds, Appalachian snows, deadly storm surges for low lying, massive beach erosion, and flooding in what is being referred to by the NOAA as an “historic storm.”

Millions of Americans within the path of the storm, who waited too long to take it seriously, are now scrambling to acquire the most basic necessities ahead of Sandy’s expected landfall sometime early Tuesday morning:

Richmond, VA:

Folks across Central Virginia, the Northern Neck and much of the East Coast started stocking up at the grocery store as forecasters warned of the looming “Frankenstorm.”

“It is a little surprising. I didn’t think it would come that close to the coast,” Connie Davidson told CBS 6 News’ Sandra Jones.

Davidson was getting a jump on Hurricane Sandy and stocking up on basics, including water and batteries.

She’s was just one of numerous customers Friday at Pleasants Hardware.

“I got an oil lamp, got a portable castle iron. I got a portable heater,” Carl Shiles said. “It’s going to be getting cool next week — and if we lose power, I have a 92-year-old mother-in-law.”

“During the storm, we figure we’ll have gas. So, we’re going to get a lot of things that we can to just pop in the oven and be done with it,” he said.

…

New Jersey:

Foodtown – Middletown, New Jersey – Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012 (via Twitter)

Preparations ranged from mandatory evacuations ordered by Gov. Christie for portions of the Jersey Shore to residents preparing for long power outages by cleaning shelves of water, batteries and bread. New Jersey’s utility companies also were preparing for a massive number of power outages.

People turned to social media to report bare shelves in grocery stores and the early effects of the storm in their communities, including strong winds and even flooding in some Shore towns.

…

Brooklyn:

Items such as flashlights, D batteries and bottled water have already run low in many locations, as have bread and nonperishable food items. Other items that may run low include tarps and pumps.

Grocery store lines in Bushwick, Brooklyn, and undoubtedly throughout the city were stretching through the aisles this evening. According to ABC News, one Trader Joe’s line just to enter the store wrapped around the block.

Also, FreshDirect has cancelled deliveries tonight, causing more people to head to actual grocery stores than usual.

…

Montgomery, Pennsylvania:

Throughout the area, grocery stores and gas stations were crowded Sunday as residents stocked up on necessities.

The lines at the pumps at Sunoco on Valley Forge Road at Whites Road were three or four cars deep late Sunday morning, and the cars trying to get in and out were causing jams in the parking lot and on Valley Forge.

Denise Bohne-Schmidt, a nine-year employee of the Sunoco, said the gas station ran out of regular gasoline Friday, Saturday and Sunday. When it runs out, a truck comes to the station to replenish the supply, but that sometimes takes hours.

She said she’s never seen the gas station so busy, not even before a snowstorm.

“People are complaining, screaming, yelling, they’re yelling at me and there have been fights between customers — it’s been a mess.”

At Weis Market on Valley Forge Road in Lansdale, manager Mike Ryan said that sales are up 29 percent since Friday, with most people buying cases of bottled water and bread. He had three extra deliveries, but the bread supply was almost depleted and bottled water was dwindling.

“People who have well water are nervous, because if the power goes out, they won’t have water,” he said.

Arlene Widman of Lansdale had several cases of bottled water in her cart for herself and her two adult daughters.

“We don’t know how had it’s going to be. That’s the issue,” she said. “From what they’re saying it’s going to be a doozy.”

For those on the east coast, we wish you the best as the brunt of the storm passes over the next 72 hours. Many of our readers have likely prepared for the worst and have critical supplies like food, potable water, gas, batteries, off-grid cooking supplies and generators on hand.

For those still lacking supplies, we’d strongly recommend stocking up on as manysnow hurricane preparedness items as you can within the next 12 hours if supplies are still available in your area.

With the potential for widespread power outages and flooding, there is a strong possibility that many areas may experience supply problems in coming days and weeks, especially if this storm damages critical utility infrastructure.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-29/sandys-state-state-impact-forecast

Sandy's State-By-State Impact Forecast

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2012 07:55 -0400

The latest state-by-state forecast from theWunderground weather wizards:

Maine

• Storm tide and surge: 1 to 2 feet of storm surge on top of tides.
• Wind: 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday.
• Power outages: Spotty power outages are possible as wind takes down branches and trees.

Massachusetts

• Storm tide and surge: Up to 4 feet of storm surge on top of tides, with a 10-20% chance of surge exceeding 5 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Buzzards Bay, MA is 7-8 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Woods Hole, MA is 6-7 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Nantucket, MA is 6-7 feet.

• Wind: 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening
• Rain: Widespread totals from 1.5 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday.
• Power outages: Spotty power outages are possible as wind takes down branches and trees

Rhode Island

• Storm tide and surge: 4 to 5 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 10-20% chance of surge exceeding 5 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Newport, RI is 8-9 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Providence, RI is 10-11 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Block Island, RI is 7-8 feet.

Connecticut

• Storm tide and surge: 6 to 9 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 60% chance of surge exceeding 5 feet west of Bridgeport. Surge will be worse as you move west along the Connecticut coastline.

Storm tide forecast for New London, CT is 8-9 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Bridgeport, CT is 14-15 feet.

• Wind: 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening
• Rain: Widespread totals from 1.5 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday.
• Power outages: Power outages are possible as wind takes down branches and trees

New York

• Storm tide and surge:
Long Island Sound -- 6-7 feet on top of tide with a 50% chance of exceeding 7 feet. Storm tide forecast for Port Jefferson is 13-14 feet.
Manhattan -- 4-5 feet on top of tide with a 40% chance of exceeding 7 feet.
Staten Island -- 4-5 feet on top of tide with a 60% chance of exceeding 7 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Montauk, NY is 7-8 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Port Jefferson, NY is 13-14 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Kings Point, NY is 12-13 feet.
Storm tide forecast for The Battery, NY is 9-10 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Bergen Pt, NY is 10-11 feet.

• Wind: Long duration, damaging winds expected. 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 80 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and night.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches, especially in the higher elevations. 1 to 2 inches PER HOUR are expected where the heaviest rain bands set up.• Inland Flooding: Widespread urban flooding is expected Monday and into Tuesday. Fast-responding streams are expected to flood, as well. The flooding will be exacerbated by blockages in storm drains as well as rising storm tide.

• Power outages: Power outages are possible, even likely, as wind takes down branches and trees.

Pennsylvania

• Storm tide and surge: 1 to 2 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 30-40% chance of surge exceeding 3 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Philadelphia, PA is 8-9 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 4 to 10 inches, with the highest amounts mainly from Philadelphia metro southward. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday. RIver flooding is possible.
• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.

New Jersey

• Storm tide and surge: 4 to 5 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 30-50% chance of surge exceeding 7 feet. Surge will be worse as you move north along the New Jersey coastline.

Storm tide forecast for Sandy Hook, NJ is 10-11 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Atlantic City, NJ is 9-10 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Cape May, NJ is 9-10 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 4 to 10 inches. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday. RIver flooding is possible.• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.

Delaware

• Storm tide and surge: 4 to 5 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 20% chance of surge exceeding 6 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Reedy Point, DE is 8-9 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Lewes, DE is 9-10 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 4 to 10 inches. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday. RIver flooding is possible.
• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.

Maryland and Washington D.C.

• Storm tide and surge: 4 to 5 feet of surge is possible on top of tides on the ocean coast, with a 10-20% chance of surge exceeding 6 feet.
• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast, and will also be stronger along the ridges.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts, especially in the D.C. metro. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Moderate to major flooding is possible on the smaller creeks and streams. Flooding is also possible on the larger mainstream rivers beyond Tuesday.
• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.

Virginia

• Storm tide and surge: 2 to 4 feet of surge is possible on top of tides on the ocean coast.

Storm tide forecast for Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA is 6-7 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Wachapreague, VA is 7-8 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Kiptopeke Beach, VA is 6-7 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast, and will also be stronger along the ridges.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts, especially in the D.C. metro. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Moderate to major flooding is possible on the smaller creeks and streams. Flooding is also possible on the larger mainstream rivers beyond Tuesday.• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.

North Carolina

• Storm tide and surge: 2 to 4 feet of surge is possible on top of tides.

Storm tide forecast for Duck Pier, NC is 7-8 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast, and will also be stronger along the ridges.
• Rain: An additional 1 to 3 inches possible overnight Sunday.
• Inland Flooding: Flood threat is tapering off as Sandy moves north.
• Power outages: Sporadic power outages are possible as wind breaks branches off trees.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/sandy-coverage-updates-20121027

Stu Ostro @StuOstro

Extrapolated surface pressure of 939.4 mb :-o #Sandy pic.twitter.com/H4IzJ2JR

Eric Fisher @EricFisherTWC

#Sandy continues to strengthen. At 11a, 90mph winds, pressure down to 943mb. Unreal.

Monday October 29, 2012 10:43

Hurricane Central @twc_hurricane

Atlantic City --> RT @JitneyGuy: 80 feet of boardwalk floating free at Atlantic and New Hampshire Ave. #sandy pic.twitter.com/j1c5aa6B

Monday October 29, 2012 8:20

Hurricane Central @twc_hurricane

RT @aubreyjwhelan: Police say the Atlantic City boardwalk's north end is collapsing. #Sandy

Monday October 29, 2012 8:18

Hurricane Central @twc_hurricane

RT @aubreyjwhelan: Streets flooding pretty extensively outside my hotel in Atlantic Citypic.twitter.com/oW45V0oH
#Sandy

Monday October 29, 2012 8:18

Jim Cantore @JimCantore

#Sandy is on final approach into the Jersey shore. Now at a RECORD tying ALL-TIME LOW PRESSURE (946mb) the worst is yet to come for #NYC

Monday October 29, 2012 8:03

Hurricane Central @twc_hurricane

Air Force recon just reported extrapolated central pressure of 944.4 mb; will see whether dropsonde confirms this or not. #Sandy

Monday

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-28/all-us-equity-markets-closed-monday-due-sandy

All US Equity Markets Closed Monday (And Maybe Tuesday) Due To Sandy

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2012 23:10 -0400

New York Stock Exchange

NYSE Euronext

Late Updates - after a day of consultation and realization that if the algos were left alone to play then things could go a little pear-shaped - NYSE and NASDAQ will now be totally closed tomorrow:

*U.S. EQUITY MARKETS TO CLOSE ON OCT. 29 FOR STORM, SEC SAYS
*NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE TO CLOSE MARKETS FOR STORM
*NASDAQ OMX MARKETS CLOSED TOMORROW ON HURRICANE SANDY :NDAQ US
- *CBOE TO CLOSE EXCHANGES OCT. 29 BECAUSE OF HURRICANE SANDY
Via NYSE:

"In consultation with other exchanges and market participants, NYSE Euronext will close its markets on Monday, Oct. 29, 2012 and pending confirmation on Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012’’

"We support the consensus of the markets and the regulatory community that the dangerous conditions developing as a result of Hurricane Sandy will make it extremely difficult to ensure the safety of our people and communities, and safety must be our first priority’’

"We will work with the industry to determine the next steps in restoring trading as soon as the situation permits’’

Add to this, SIFMA's recommendation that bond markets close at midday - which is all a little moot given MTA's closure and tomorrow looks like being a busy day for the European desks...

and....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-28/life-so-far-hurricane-sandy

The Life (So Far) Of Hurricane Sandy

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2012 - 21:33NOAA

UPDATE: 37ft waves in Bermuda (compared to 5 feet last week) and a side-by-side of Irene and Sandy

She's wet, windy, and bringing a world of hate to the Atlantic Seaboard - but where did she come from? NOAA offers the complete animated real-life of Hurricane Sandy...

Meanwhile in Bermuda - waves are reaching 37 feet!!!

and in case you were wondering just how big Sandy is relative to Irene:

and....

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/sandy-could-be-a-toxic-shitstorm-in-gowanus.html

Hurricane Sandy Could Be a Toxic Shitstorm in the Gowanus Canal

By Adam Pasick

A frothy fecal mixture.

A little more than a year ago, we filed this report about what would happen if Hurricane Irene were to cause flooding in the Gowanus Canal. The canal avoided flooding by a few scant inches, but as Hurricane Sandy bears down on New York, a storm surge is looking even more likely, so we've updated our post from last year.

When Hurricane Sandy begins to arrive in the New York area on Sunday, the neighborhoods surrounding the Gowanus Canal are in for a literal shitstorm — and that may be the least of their problems.

The latest projections anticipate a storm surge of several feet in New York Harbor on Sunday. A dome of water would travel from Upper New York Bay, through Gowanus Harbor, and into the 1.5-mile-long Gowanus Canal near Smith and 9th Street. Once in the canal, it could stir up a heady mix of pollutants — essentially oil, heavy metals, and human excrement — and distribute it throughout the slowly gentrifying area that sits among some of Brownstone Brooklyn's priciest neighborhoods. In Gowanus itself, a host of new restaurants and bars have recently opened, a developer is trying revive plans for luxury housing along the canal banks, and a new Whole Foods is set to open next year.

Ask any Gowanus resident, or any of the artists and restauranteurs who haverecently staked out space there, and they'll tell you that it's no fun for anyone with a functioning olfactory system to be near the canal when it rains. That's because the city's sewer system overflows into the canal whenever it maxes out its capacity to handle runoff, which happens all too often, resulting in adisgusting wave of human poop. The canal can be even fouler at low tide on a sunny day, when water levels drop low enough to expose the polluted sludge — mostly 100-year-old oil and coal byproducts, and PCBs from metal and paint factories — that lines its banks.

If Sandy hits with sufficient force, a flood of the human waste quaintly known as combined sewer overflow (CSO) is almost a certainty. What is less certain is how much of the heavier, more dangerous contaminants will be churned up by the storm surge and heavy winds and deposited by the flood waters. There is a worrying precedent in Hurricane Katrina, which inundated several Superfund sites such as the Agriculture Street Landfill. Like the Gowanus Canal, the landfill had accumulated decades worth of various pollutants, and after Katrina the area around the landfill showed "disturbingly high" levels of cancer-causing chemicals from soot and petroleum-based products. Those are known as polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and EPA testing has confirmed high levels of them in the Gowanus Canal, the result of oil and coal refinery runoff a hundred years ago.

The 50-odd blocks that surround the canal — known lately for open-air dance parties and hipster houseboats — are in Zone A and are subject to mandatory evacuation. The two neighborhoods that border the Gowanus, Park Slope and Carroll Gardens, are both uphill from the canal. But whether those hills are steep enough to turn back a flood of toxic poop won't be known until Sandy passes through.

and.....

http://wtop.com/41/3097019/Federal-offices-closed-for-Sandy-leave-for-some

Federal offices closed because of Sandy

Sunday - 10/28/2012, 6:20pm ET

WASHINGTON (AP) - Federal workers in the Washington area are getting a day off thanks to Hurricane Sandy.

The U.S. Office of Personnel Management says federal offices will be closed Monday.

Non-emergency employees will be granted administrative leave for their scheduled working hours unless they are required to telework or are traveling or on unpaid leave.

Only emergency employees are required to report to work.

The following comes from OPM:

Non-emergency employees (including employees on pre-approved paid leave) will be granted excused absence (administrative leave) for the number of hours they were scheduled to work unless they are:

required to telework,
on official travel outside of the Washington, DC, area,
on leave without pay, or
on an alternative work schedule (AWS) day off.

Telework-Ready Employees who are scheduled to perform telework on the day of the announcement or who are required to perform unscheduled telework on a day when Federal offices are closed to the public must telework the entire workday or request leave, or a combination of both, in accordance with their agencies' policies and procedures, subject to any applicable collective bargaining requirements.

Emergency Employees are expected to report to their worksites unless otherwise directed by their agencies.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204789304578085134103289070.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Thousands of people were stranded Sunday as U.S. airlines canceled more than 7,400 flights through Tuesday ahead of the two storm systems converging on the East Coast.

With Hurricane Sandy looming, airlines suspended operations at airports from Washington to Boston. Carriers canceled 1,240 flights scheduled for Sunday as of the late afternoon, according to FlightAware.com, a flight-tracking website. Airlines also canceled 5,560 flights scheduled for Monday and 645 flights Tuesday. FlightAware said it expected those numbers to rise considerably. Many travelers will have to wait until Wednesday to fly.

Kim Huynh said AMR Corp.'s American Airlines canceled her Monday morning ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-28/algos-only-allowed-trade-nyse-tomorrow-due-sandy

"Algos-Only" Tomorrow As NYSE Shuts Floor Trading Due To Sandy

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2012 16:07 -0400

Capital Markets

New York City

New York Stock Exchange

NYSE Euronext

The NYSE has just released a statement clarifying its hours tomorrow - due to the storm:

*NYSE TRADING FLOOR TO CLOSE TOMORROW; ALL TRADING TO BE ON ARCA

So, hold tight as all those low-lying humans will have left the building in the calm thoughtful hands of Johnny-5 and his friends.

Via Bloomberg:

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The New York Stock Exchange said it will shut its trading floor starting tomorrow and invoke contingency plans to move all trading to NYSE Arca, its electronic exchange, as Hurricane Sandy heads toward the city.

“The re-opening of physical trading floor operations is subject to city and state determinations and local conditions; updates will be forthcoming,” NYSE Euronext said in a statement today.

NYSE Amex Options will open electronically and NYSE MKT, formerly known as NYSE Amex, will be suspended, the exchange operator said.

Full PR:

NYSE to Remain Open for Trading While Physical Trading Floor and New York Building Close in Accordance with Actions Taken By City and State Officials

NYSE Euronext invokes contingency plans to trade NYSE-listed securities on NYSE Arca

NYSE Arca Options and NYSE Liffe U.S. operational; NYSE Amex Options open electronically

Updates on re-opening physical trading operations to come

New York, Oct. 28, 2012 Respecting the actions taken by New York City and State officials to declare a state of emergency, suspend local New York City transportation beginning this evening, and issue evacuations orders in the proximity of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) building , NYSE Euronext (NYX) has decided to suspend physical trading floor operations and invoke its contingency plans to trade all NYSE-listed securities on NYSE Arca, the company's fully electronic exchange, beginning Monday, Oct. 29, 2012. NYSE MKT will be suspended during this period. The re-opening of physical trading floor operations is subject to city and state determinations and local conditions; updates will be forthcoming.

We are open for business and at the same time acting in accordance with actions taken by the city and state of New York, said Duncan L. Niederauer, Chief Executive Officer, NYSE Euronext. We have been in discussions with government officials and regulators, our trading floor community, issuers and other customers.

We will continue to communicate and coordinate activities with regulators and government officials, other market centers, member firms and all of our customers. I would like to acknowledge everyone's outstanding cooperation and singular focus on serving the best interests of people, safety and our capital markets. This is an extremely dangerous and unpredictable weather event, and we support the actions taken by city and state officials. On behalf of everyone at NYSE Euronext, our thoughts and prayers go to everyone impacted by the storm.

This NYSE contingency plan was most recently tested by the industry on March 31, 2012, and allows for uninterrupted trading in NYSE-listed securities in the event the physical trading floor is unavailable. In this scenario, pursuant to NYSE Rule 49 and NYSE Arca Equities Rule 2.100, NYSE-listed trades would be identified on the Consolidated Tape with the NYSE exchange designation N, and quotes would be identified as NYSE quotes on the Consolidated Quote stream. During such a contingency plan, NYSE member organizations will be permitted to enter orders in NYSE-listed securities directly on NYSE Arca, even if not approved as an NYSE Arca ETP Holder. NYSE MKT member organizations that are also Arca ETP Holders may send orders in NYSE MKT-listed securities to NYSE Arca. Quotes and executions in Tape B and Tape C securities on NYSE Arca will continue to be reported as P and there will not be a primary print for NYSE MKT-listed securities. While the NYSE Amex Options trading floor in New York will be closed, electronic trading on NYSE Amex Options will continue normally. NYSE Arca Options will also be operating normally, both electronically and on the physical trading floor in San Francisco, CA.

The NYSE last suspended physical trading floor operations on Friday, Sept. 27, 1985 due to Hurricane Gloria, during which all U.S. markets were closed. For a full list of NYSE market closures, go to:http://www.nyse.com/pdfs/closings.pdf.

and...

and playing ZombieLand between October 29 - November 1 at the Halo Summit in sunny San Diego will come back to haunt Obama if this storm is huge and as best as projected on the East Coast.......

http://news.yahoo.com/marines-police-prep-mock-zombie-invasion-180541102.html

SAN DIEGO (AP) — Move over vampires, goblins and haunted houses, this kind of Halloween terror aims to shake up even the toughest warriors: An untold number of so-called zombies are coming to acounterterrorism summit attended by hundreds of Marines, Navy special ops, soldiers, police, firefighters and others to prepare them for their worst nightmares.

"This is a very real exercise, this is not some type of big costume party," said Brad Barker, president of Halo Corp, a security firm hosting the Oct. 31 training demonstration during the summit at a 44-acre Paradise Point Resort island on a San Diego bay. "Everything that will be simulated at this event has already happened, it just hasn't happened all at once on the same night. But the training is very real, it just happens to be the bad guys we're having a little fun with."

Hundreds of military, law enforcement and medical personnel will observe the Hollywood-style production of a zombie attack as part of their emergency response training.

****

Called "Zombie Apocalypse," the exercise follows the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's campaign launched last year that urged Americans to get ready for a zombie apocalypse, as part of a catchy, public health message about the importance of emergency preparedness.

The Homeland Security Department jumped on board last month, telling citizens if they're prepared for a zombie attack, they'll be ready for real-life disasters like a hurricane, pandemic, earthquake or terrorist attack. A few suggestions were similar to a few of the 33 rules for dealing with zombies popularized in the 2009 movie "Zombieland," which included "always carry a change of underwear" and "when in doubt, know your way out."

San Diego-based Halo Corp. founded by former military special ops and intelligence personnel has been hosting the annual counterterrorism summit since 2006.

The five-day Halo counterterrorism summit is an approved training event by the Homeland Security Grant Program and the Urban Areas Security Initiative, which provide funds to pay for the coursework on everything from the battleground tactics to combat wounds to cybersecurity. The summit has a $1,000 registration fee and runs Oct. 29-Nov 2.

***

http://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-the-scariest-thing-ive-seen-about-hurricane-sandy-2012-10

Yes, you are reading the map below correctly. The storm surge from Hurricane Sandy could reach 15 feet above sea level in some areas of New York. That's scary. See the interactive map on NOAAs website. This version shows the worst predictions, there's a 10 percent chance that the storm surge could exceed these predictions.

As the storm barrels up the East Coast, NYC has taken precautions including evacuating Zone A, closing schools and closing the subway.

THE LATEST MAP AND NEWS ON HURRICANE SANDY

New york sandy flood surge hurricane sandy

http://enenews.com/top-meteorologist-sandy-now-largest-storm-ever-recorded-highest-destructive-potential-for-storm-surge-in-history-may-be-lowest-pressure-ever-measured-in-northeast-us

( New York will see flooding - only question is the scale of flooding....)

Title: Massive Hurricane Sandy building a huge and destructive storm surge
Source: Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog
Date: 2:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2012

High resolution MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Sandy on October 27, 2012 (h/t Angela Fritz)

Massive and dangerous Hurricane Sandy has grown to record size as it barrels northeastwards along the North Carolina coast at 10 mph. [...] Since records of storm size began in 1988, no tropical storm or hurricane has been larger [...]

Sandy’s central pressure is expected to drop from its current 951 mb to 945 – 950 mb at landfall Monday night. A pressure this low is extremely rare; according to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC, is 946 mb (27.94″) measured at the Bellport Coast Guard Station on Long Island, NY on September 21, 1938 during the great “Long Island Express” hurricane.

National Hurricane Center, 11a ET Oct. 28

[...] the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 – 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 – 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. While Sandy’s storm surge will be nowhere near as destructive as Katrina’s, the storm surge does have the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 – 3″ to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy’s storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. [...] I give a 50% chance that Sandy’s storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system. [...]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-the-scariest-thing-ive-seen-about-hurricane-sandy-2012-10#ixzz2AcOQQux7

http://www.businessinsider.com/whoa-the-weather-channel-meterologist-just-completely-freaked-out-about-hurricane-sandy-2012-10

Just in case you thought the Hurricane hype couldn't get any louder, check out this dispatch from Weather Channel meterologist Stu Ostro:

- History is being written as an extreme weather event continues to unfold, one which will occupy a place in the annals of weather history as one of the most extraordinary to have affected the United States.

- REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE OFFICIAL DESIGNATION IS NOW OR AT/AFTER LANDFALL -- HURRICANE (INCLUDING IF "ONLY" A CATEGORY ONE), TROPICAL STORM, POST-TROPICAL, EXTRATROPICAL, WHATEVER -- OR WHAT TYPE OF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER -- PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM NEED TO HEED THE THREAT IT POSES WITH UTMOST URGENCY...

- With Sandy having already brought severe impacts to the Caribbean Islands and a portion of the Bahamas, and severe erosion to some beaches on the east coast of Florida, it is now poised to strike the northeast United States with a combination of track, size, structure and strength that is unprecedented in the known historical record there...

- A meteorologically mind-boggling combination of ingredients is coming together: one of the largest expanses of tropical storm (gale) force winds on record with a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the Atlantic or for that matter anywhere else in the world; a track of the center making a sharp left turn in direction of movement toward New Jersey in a way that is unprecedented in the historical database, as it gets blocked from moving out to sea by a pattern that includes an exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure aloft near Greenland; a "warm-core" tropical cyclone embedded within a larger, nor'easter-like circulation; and eventually tropical moisture and arctic air combining to produce heavy snow in interior high elevations. This is an extraordinary situation, and I am not prone to hyperbole.

- That gigantic size is a crucially important aspect of this storm. The massive breadth of its strong winds will produce a much wider scope of impacts than if it were a tiny system, and some of them will extend very far inland. A cyclone with the same maximum sustained velocities (borderline tropical storm / hurricane) but with a very small diameter of tropical storm / gale force winds would not present nearly the same level of threat or expected effects. Unfortunately, that's not the case. This one's size, threat, and expected impacts are immense.

and.....

http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-sandy-10-million-people-could-loser-power-2012-10

From Johns Hopkins University...

An engineer at The Johns Hopkins University predicts that 10 million people from northern Virginia through New Jersey and into southeastern Pennsylvania will be without power in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. Seth Guikema (pronounced Guy-keh-ma) and his team have developed a computer model built on outage data from 11 hurricanes to estimate the fraction of customers who will lose power, based on expected gust wind speed, expected duration of strong winds greater than 20 meters per second, and population density. They ran their model using the official National Hurricane Center track and intensity forecast from 18UTC (3 p.m. EDT) on Saturday, and emphasize that the number of power outages could change as the storm progresses and forecasts become more definitive. It is possible that 10 million people is a conservative estimate, Guikema said.

Guikema’s model may help power companies allocate resources by predicting how many people will be without power and where the most outages will take place, and it provides information that emergency managers can use to better prepare for storms. Guikema, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering, says the goal is to restore power faster and save customers money. Guikema will be running the model throughout the weekend and into next week as Hurricane Sandy makes landfall.

and with quite a few nuclear facilities in the path of the storm , I hope the Utility Operators are ready - after Fukushima , there is no excuse for being caught unaware , unprepared for flooding and power outages......

http://enenews.com/weather-channel-hurricane-specialist-all-hell-is-breaking-loose-super-mega-combo-freak-of-a-storm-slamming-into-the-most-populated-part-of-the-country

Title: Sandy on Track – But Is the Message Getting Out?
Source: Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Specialist at The Weather Channel
Date: Oct 28, 2012

Sandy the super-unusual, combo hurricane/nor’easter on the unheard-of track is coming together as forecast.
[...] the amount of energy the storm puts in the ocean water goes up dramatically with the diameter of the high-wind area. Not to mention, Sandy is already one of the biggest hurricanes on record.

When Sandy moves toward the coast, that high-energy water comes with it, which means high storm surge and stunningly high waves.

If the center of the circulation lands on the Jersey Shore, as looks most likely, the focus on that energy is going to be on North Jersey, New York Harbor, and the south shore of Long Island. The National Weather Service in New York is predicting waves 10 to 20 feet high on the south-facing beaches. Holy crap!

Did I also mention that’s on top of the storm surge, which is forecast to raise the ocean level 4 to 8 feet above normal? And did I also mention that there’s a full moon and the storm’s peak is expected to be around high tide? Holy triple whammy!

[...] the National Weather Service decided NOT to issue a Hurricane Watch for the Northeast coastline… are you ready for this… because it would be confusing to switch from that to a Coastal Flood Watch and a High Wind Watch after the storm – which will come ashore with hurricane-force winds – morphs into another kind of storm according to the meteorology dictionary. [...]

I grant that a technical reading of the “rules” says that you can’t put up a Hurricane Watch and a Coastal Flood Watch and a High Wind Watch at the same time. But I’m betting the rules didn’t envision a super-mega-combo freak of a storm slamming into the most populated part of the country. When all hell is breaking loose, sometimes you’ve got to break a few rules to do the right thing. [...]

The Oyster Creek nuclear power plant near Tom’s River, NJ appears to be at greatest risk for storm surge, as it’s located near the shoreline where the eye of the hurricane is expected to make landfall.

and.....

http://www.myfoxny.com/story/19933026/mta-subways-ready-for-hurricane-sandy

Transit officials in New York are preparing for a total shutdown of subway, bus and train service as Hurricane Sandy continues to bear down on the metropolitan region.

All service will be suspended at 7 p.m. on Sunday.

COMPLETE COVERAGE AND TRACK SANDY

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo ordered the Metropolitan Transportation Authority to start planning for an orderly suspension of service.

New York City subways and buses will start phasing out service at 7 p.m. Metro-North Railroad and the Long Island Rail Road will suspend service at 7 p.m. Sunday.

The city's mass transit system is the nation's largest. The subway alone has a daily ridership of more than 5 million.

Rainfall is expected to start late Sunday or early Monday in New York. Hurricane Sandy is headed north from the Caribbean to meet a winter storm and a cold front. Experts say the rare hybrid storm that results will cause havoc over 800 miles from the East Coast to the Great Lakes.

Bridges and tunnels will be closed on a case-by-case basis.

On Saturday, the MTA had workers nailing plywood covers to subway ventilation grates at South Ferry to help prevent flooding.

The agency began to secure subway covers after flooding by a severe rainstorm on August 8, 2007. After that storm the MTA started a program to raise the grates in sidewalks that ventilate the subway at flood-prone locations.

The raised ventilation grates are located in Manhattan, Queens and Brooklyn, and help reduce the amount of water that enters the subway system from street level. All are designed to be attention-getting so that pedestrians don't stumble into them, and in some cases they double as bicycle racks, benches, and artistic stainless steel sculptural forms.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/hurricane_sandy_could_wreak_havoc_w5IxBoWqfj1F6qmzSjaMQP

The MTA will suspend subway, bus and commuter rail service tonight and schools will be closed tomorrow in advance of Hurricane Sandy hitting New York, Gov. Cuomo and Mayor Bloomberg announced.

The mayor also ordered coastal areas of New York, known as "Zone A," evacuated.

The at-risk areas include the Rockaways, parts of Staten Island, City Island, the South Bronx, Battery Park City and the Lower East Side.

High winds blow sea foam into the air as a person walks across Jeanette's Pier in Nags Head, NC today.

The last subway train will leave at 7 p.m. and the last bus will depart at 9 p.m., according to Cuomo.

The LIRR and Metro-North trains will also stop running after 7 p.m.

Meanwhile, Mayor Bloomberg is still considering whether to evacuate parts of New York City, but if he decides to do so, the MTA will be able to assist in that effort, Cuomo said.

The subway shutdown was necessary since it's unsafe to operate the trains in high winds and Gov. Cuomo said he doesn't want to encourage people to be up and about during the storm.

Bridge and tunnel closures will occur on a case-by-case basis, the governor said. At this time, Cuomo does not plan to close area airports. But, he is activating the National Guard.

He also urged staffing at nursing homes to be at 150% capacity and said staffers should be prepared to stay 48 to 72 hours.

Cuomo said this was not the time to panic, but it was necessary to take action.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Sandy was headed north from the Caribbean, where it left nearly five dozen dead, to meet a winter storm and a cold front, plus high tides from a full moon, and experts said the rare hybrid storm that results will cause havoc over 800 miles from the East Coast to the Great Lakes.

"I've been here since 1997, and I never even put my barbecue grill away during a storm," Russ Linke said shortly before he and his wife left Ship Bottom on Saturday. "But I am taking this one seriously. They say it might hit here. That's about as serious as it can get."

He and his wife secured the patio furniture, packed the bicycles into the pickup truck, and headed off the island.

The danger was hardly limited to coastal areas. Forecasters were far more worried about inland flooding from storm surge than they were about winds. Rains could saturate the ground, causing trees to topple into power lines, utility officials said, warning residents to prepare for several days at home without power.

Sandy was at Category 1 strength, packing 75 mph winds, about 250 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC, and moving northeast at 14 mph as of 11 a.m. Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was about 575 miles south of New York City.

The storm was expected to continue moving parallel to the Southeast coast most of the day and approach the coast of the mid-Atlantic states by Monday night, before reaching southern New England later in the week.

The storm was so big, however, and the convergence of the three storms so rare, that "we just can't pinpoint who is going to get the worst of it," said Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"You never want to be too naive, but ultimately, it's not in our hands anyway," said Andrew Ferencsik, 31, as he purchased plywood and 2-by-4 lumber from a Home Depot in Lewes, Del.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was criticized for not interrupting a vacation in Florida while a snowstorm pummeled the state in 2010, broke off campaigning for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in North Carolina on Friday to return home.

"I can be as cynical as anyone," said Christie, who declared a state of emergency Saturday. "But when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, you're going to wish you weren't as cynical as you otherwise might have been."

Up and down the Eastern Seaboard and far inland, officials urged residents and businesses to prepare in ways big and small.

Amtrak began canceling train service Saturday night to parts of the East Coast, including between Washington and New York. Airlines started moving planes out of airports to avoid damage and adding Sunday flights out of New York and Washington in preparation for flight cancellations on Monday.

The Virginia National Guard was authorized to call up to 500 troops to active duty for debris removal and road-clearing, while homeowners stacked sandbags at their front doors in coastal towns.

In Arlington, just outside Washington, DC, a few shoppers strolled in and outside a Giant supermarket. Cathy Davis, 40, said the supermarket was sold out of the water she wanted to purchase, but she wasn't doing much else to prepare. She figured she would bring her outdoor furniture inside later in the day, and might make some chili.

She said the storm did lead her to decide against decorating for Halloween.

"I was like, 'eh, it will just be blown away anyway,'" she said. "What's the point."

President Barack Obama was monitoring the storm and working with state and locals governments to make sure they get the resources needed to prepare, administration officials said.

In North Carolina's Outer Banks, there was some scattered, minor flooding at daybreak Sunday on the beach road in Nags Head. The bad weather could pick up there later in the day, with the major concerns being rising tides and pounding waves.

DeWitt Quinn, 63, from the mainland city of Badin, NC, was in the Outer Banks for his annual fishing trip when Sandy promised to disrupt his plans. He spent all day Saturday fishing from shore and a boat as the storm built up. A former member of the Coast Guard, Quinn said he was planning Sunday to spend the day inside with his buddies cleaning and preparing a two-foot-long puppy drum fish caught Saturday for cooking.

"We've got cards. We've got computers. We've got food. We're going to cook our brains out and eat very well," Quinn said.

In New Jersey, hundreds of coastal residents started moving inland. Christie's emergency declaration will force the shutdown of Atlantic City's 12 casinos for only the fourth time in the 34-year history of legalized gambling here. City officials said they would begin evacuating the gambling hub's 30,000 residents at noon Sunday, busing them to mainland shelters and schools.

The storm also forced the presidential campaign to juggle schedules. Romney scrapped plans to campaign Sunday in Virginia and switched his schedule for the day to Ohio. First lady Michelle Obama canceled an appearance in New Hampshire for Tuesday, and Obama moved a planned Monday departure for Florida to Sunday night to beat the storm. He also canceled appearances in Northern Virginia on Monday and Colorado on Tuesday.

Eighty-five-year-old former sailor Ray Leonard had a bit of advice for those in the path of the storm. Leonard and two crewmates in his 32-foot sailboat, Satori, rode out 1991's infamous "perfect storm," made famous by the Sebastian Junger best-selling book of the same name, before being plucked from the Atlantic off Martha's Vineyard, Mass., by a Coast Guard helicopter.

"Don't be rash," Leonard said Saturday from his home in Fort Myers, Fla. "Because if this does hit, you're going to lose all those little things you've spent the last 20 years feeling good about."

and nuclear plants in harm's way.........

More than a Dozen Nuclear Plants Near Hurricane Sandy’s Path Brace for Impact

Submitted by George Washington on 10/26/2012 19:10 -0400

Bloomberg reports:

“Because of the size of [Hurricane Sandy], we could see an impact to coastal and inland plants,” Neil Sheehan, a spokesman based in Philadelphia for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said by phone today. “We will station inspectors at the sites if we know they could be directly impacted.”

The NRC met earlier today to discuss the necessary precautions to take for the storm, Sheehan said. Plants must begin to shut if wind speeds exceed certain limits, he said.

As of 2 p.m. New York time, Sandy had winds of 75 miles (121 kilometers) per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was about 430 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, moving north at 7 mph.

The current Hurricane Center track calls for the system to come ashore just south of Delaware Bay on Oct. 30.

Reuters provides a list:

The following lists the nuclear reactors and utilities in Sandy’s potential path.

Plant More than a Dozen Nuclear Plants Near Hurricane Sandys Path Brace for Impact

While we don’t foresee any problems, the risk of nuclear accident in the U.S. is actuallymuch greater than it was in Japan before Fukushima.

For example, fuel pools in the United Statesstore an average of ten times moreradioactive fuel than stored at Fukushima, and have virtually no safety features.

Let’s review the list and look at examples of problems experienced by the nuclear plants in Hurricane Sandy’s path:

Brunswick experienced a reactor coolant system leak last year

Surry has recently been plagued by problems with the coolant system,valves and damage from a tornado

North Anna leaked tritium last year after an earthquake shook the plant and shifted around a gigantic radioactive storage cask

Calvert Cliffs was knocked offline by the last hurricane

Salem has been riddled with problems with security, turbines problems and other issues.

Hope Creek has suffered securityproblems, has the same design as the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1, has “some of the same issues with above-ground storage of spent fuel rods as Fukushima” and “was designed to withstand certain major weather events but we need to look at the potential impacts of more extreme events, especially … sea level rise and flooding”

Peach Bottom purportedly has a defective design and has beenplagued by various problems

Limerick has suffered electrical and other issues

Three Mile Island suffered another leak in the cooling system last month

Susquehanna has been hit with one problem after another

Oyster Creek has been plagued withelectrical and other problems

Indian Point is widely recognized asone of the nation’s worst nuclear plants. If Indian Point melted down, it could close New York City for years, and cost half a trillion dollars or more

Millstone’s vulnerability is shown by the fact that it was shut down due towarm seawater

Pilgrim has numerous structural problems. And see this. Pilgrim’s spent fuel pools contain more radioactive cesium than released byFukushima, Chernobyl and all nuclear bomb tests combined

Seabrook has had problems withcorrosion, computers and a host of other issues

Vermont Yankee – which has around10 times more spent fuel rods than any of the individual Fukushima reactors – leaked tritium

It’s not surprising that there have been problems at all of these nuclear plants. After all, the U.S. has 23 reactors which arevirtually identical to Fukushima. The archaic uranium reactor designs developed more than 40 years ago are only good for making bombs.

Most American nuclear reactors are old. They are aging poorly, and are in very real danger of melting down. And yet the NRC is relaxing safety standards at the old plants. And see this.

Indeed, while many of the plants are already past the service life that the engineers built them for, the NRC is considering extending licenses another 80 years, which former chairman of the Tennessee Valley Authority and now senior adviser with Friends of the Earth’s nuclear campaign David Freeman calls “committing suicide”.

and.......

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/10/27/meteorologist-storm-could-be-bigger-than-worst-east-coast-storm-on-record-that-killed-800/

SHIP BOTTOM, N.J. (AP) — Tens of millions of people in the eastern third of the U.S. in the path of the unprecedented freak storm had hours Sunday to prepare for the first raindrops that were expected later in the day, to be followed over the next few days by sheets of rain, high winds and even heavy snow.

The warning from officials to anyone who might be affected path was simple: Be prepared and get out of the way.

“We’re looking at impact of greater than 50 to 60 million people,” said Louis Uccellini, head of environmental prediction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Hurricane Sandy was headed north from the Caribbean, where it left nearly five dozen dead, to meet a winter storm and a cold front, plus high tides from a full moon, and experts said the rare hybrid storm that results will cause havoc over 800 miles from the East Coast to the Great Lakes.

“I’ve been here since 1997, and I never even put my barbecue grill away during a storm,” Russ Linke said shortly before he and his wife left Ship Bottom on Saturday. “But I am taking this one seriously. They say it might hit here. That’s about as serious as it can get.”

He and his wife secured the patio furniture, packed the bicycles into the pickup truck, and headed off the island.

States of emergency were declared from North Carolina, where gusty winds whipped steady rain on Sunday morning, to Connecticut. Delaware ordered mandatory evacuations for coastal communities by 8 p.m. Sunday.

Officials were particularly worried about the possibility of subway flooding in New York City, said Uccellini.

Sandy was at Category 1 strength, packing 75 mph winds, about 260 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and moving northeast at 10 mph as of 8 a.m. Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was about 395 miles south of New York City.

The storm was so big, however, and the convergence of the three storms so rare, that “we just can’t pinpoint who is going to get the worst of it,” said Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Jeff Masters, director of the private service Weather Underground, said the storm could be bigger than the worst East Coast storm on record — the 1938 New England hurricane known as the Long Island Express, which killed nearly 800 people. “Part hurricane, part nor’easter — all trouble,” he said.

“You never want to be too naive, but ultimately, it’s not in our hands anyway,” said Andrew Ferencsik, 31, as he purchased plywood and 2-by-4 lumber from a Home Depot in Lewes, Del.

“I can be as cynical as anyone,” said Christie, who declared a state of emergency Saturday. “But when the storm comes, if it’s as bad as they’re predicting, you’re going to wish you weren’t as cynical as you otherwise might have been.”

Up and down the Eastern Seaboard and far inland, officials urged residents and businesses to prepare in ways big and small.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told the Metropolitan Transportation Authority to prepare to shut the New York City’s subways, buses and suburban trains. The city closed the subways before Hurricane Irene last year, and a Columbia University study predicted that an Irene surge just 1 foot higher would have paralyzed lower Manhattan.

The Virginia National Guard was authorized to call up to 500 troops to active duty for debris removal and road-clearing, while homeowners stacked sandbags at their front doors in coastal towns.

In Arlington, just outside Washington, D.C., a few shoppers strolled in and outside a Giant supermarket. Cathy Davis, 40, said the supermarket was sold out of the water she wanted to purchase, but she wasn’t doing much else to prepare. She figured she would bring her outdoor furniture inside later in the day, and might make some chili.

She said the storm did lead her to decide against decorating for Halloween.

“I was like, ‘eh, it will just be blown away anyway,’” she said. “What’s the point.”

President Barack Obama was monitoring the storm and working with state and locals governments to make sure they get the resources needed to prepare, administration officials said.

In North Carolina’s Outer Banks, there was some scattered, minor flooding at daybreak Sunday on the beach road in Nags Head. The bad weather could pick up there later in the day, with the major concerns being rising tides and pounding waves.

DeWitt Quinn, 63, from the mainland city of Badin, N.C., was in the Outer Banks for his annual fishing trip when Sandy promised to disrupt his plans. He spent all day Saturday fishing from shore and a boat as the storm built up. A former member of the Coast Guard, Quinn said he was planning Sunday to spend the day inside with his buddies cleaning and preparing a two-foot-long puppy drum fish caught Saturday for cooking.

“We’ve got cards. We’ve got computers. We’ve got food. We’re going to cook our brains out and eat very well,” Quinn said.

In New Jersey, hundreds of coastal residents started moving inland. Christie’s emergency declaration will force the shutdown of Atlantic City’s 12 casinos for only the fourth time in the 34-year history of legalized gambling here. City officials said they would begin evacuating the gambling hub’s 30,000 residents at noon Sunday, busing them to mainland shelters and schools.

Eighty-five-year-old former sailor Ray Leonard had a bit of advice for those in the path of the storm. Leonard and two crewmates in his 32-foot sailboat, Satori, rode out 1991′s infamous “perfect storm,” made famous by the Sebastian Junger best-selling book of the same name, before being plucked from the Atlantic off Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., by a Coast Guard helicopter.

“Don’t be rash,” Leonard said Saturday from his home in Fort Myers, Fla. “Because if this does hit, you’re going to lose all those little things you’ve spent the last 20 years feeling good about.”

and.........

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201218.disc.html

Hurricane Sandy Discussion Number 24

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 28, 2012

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the most recent Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft mission did not
find winds of hurricane force near the center of Sandy.
However...earlier dropsonde data indicated that winds to hurricane
strength were occurring well to the south and southwest of the
center...beyond the radial legs covered by this aircraft.  Although
it could be generous...the intensity is held at 65 kt for this
advisory.  Aircraft and dropsonde data later today should provide
additional information on the intensity of Sandy.  The vertical
shear has decreased and the system has been maintaining a small
area of deep convection near the center.  Therefore...there is still
some short-term potential for Sandy to intensify as a tropical
cyclone...especially since it will be traversing the Gulf Stream
today.  In the 24 to 48 hour time frame...the global models show
intensification of the cyclone which is undoubtedly due to
baroclinic processes...as the system will be moving over much
colder waters by that time.  The official forecast shows the
transformation to an extratropical cyclone by 48 hours...but it is
important to note that this has little or no bearing on the overall
impacts of this dangerous weather system.  After landfall...the
dynamical guidance...and the official forecast...show rapid
weakening.


 
The last fix from the aircraft indicate that the motion has remained
nearly the same...or 040/12.  There are no significant changes to
the track forecast reasoning for this advisory.  As Sandy interacts
with a strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum approaching the
U.S. East Coast within the next day or so...it should turn
northward.  Afterwards...Sandy should turn northwestward and
west-northwestward in the flow between the vorticity maximum and a
highly anomalous mid-tropospheric high pressure area in the
vicinity of Newfoundland.  The 0000 UTC runs of the ECMWF and GFS
models are in reasonably good agreement on the forecast track and
the official forecast is close to this guidance and the latest
Florida State University superensemble.


 


As noted in previous advisories...to avoid a highly disruptive
change from tropical to non-tropical warnings when Sandy becomes
Post-tropical...the wind hazard north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area will continue to be conveyed through high wind watches and
warnings issued by local National Weather Service offices.


 
Forecast positions and Max winds


 
init  28/0900z 31.9n  73.3w   65 kt  75 mph
 12h  28/1800z 33.2n  71.9w   65 kt  75 mph
 24h  29/0600z 35.2n  70.6w   70 kt  80 mph
 36h  29/1800z 37.7n  71.2w   70 kt  80 mph
 48h  30/0600z 39.5n  73.7w   70 kt  80 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
 72h  31/0600z 40.5n  77.0w   45 kt  50 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
 96h  01/0600z 44.0n  76.5w   30 kt  35 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
120h  02/0600z 47.5n  75.0w   25 kt  30 mph...Post-trop/extratrop


 
$$
forecaster Pasch/cangialosi

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_surge.html

Storm Surge Forecast Map

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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html

Five Day Forecast Map

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Catharsis Ours

Sunday, October 28, 2012

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More than a Dozen Nuclear Plants Near Hurricane Sandy’s Path Brace for Impact

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