Wednesday, September 19, 2012

GEAB tease - Global systemic Crisis - October 2012 just might be where financial sphere and geopolitical tension come to the forefront for real.....

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-67-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-October-2012-The-global-economy-sucked-into-a-black-hole-and-world_a12189.html


GEAB N°67 is available! Global systemic crisis/October 2012 -The global economy sucked into a black hole and world geopolitics heated to white-hot: The seven key factors of an unprecedented double shock


- Public announcement GEAB N°67 (September 16, 2012) -




GEAB N°67 is available! Global systemic crisis/October 2012 -The global economy sucked into a black hole and world geopolitics heated to white-hot: The seven key factors of an unprecedented double shock
As LEAP/E2020 anticipated since the end of 2011, the end of summer 2012 marks the beginning of the revival for Euroland with the emergence of a positive dynamic fed by two lasting phenomena: first, the progressive operational installation of the instruments bitterly discussed and decided upon during the last 18 months and, secondly, the visionary spark brought by the political changes of the last six months which have put Euroland’s medium to long term future back in the middle of the decision-making process. The Euro’s progress these past weeks offers a perfect illustration of the phenomenon (1). That being said, Europe will be in recession for the next six to twelve months. It just goes to show that the only good news that we announced in the June 2012 GEAB issue is far from being miraculous.

In a certain sense, it’s even the contrary, since henceforth it’s no longer possible to hide the global economy’s tragic state behind the pretext of the “Euro or Greek crisis”. The more Euroland advances constructively, the more the “Potemkinien” (2) character of the US, Chinese, Japanese and Brazilian... economies’ « health » will show itself. The tree will no longer hide the forest, namely that all the major global economies are entering recession or slowing growth simultaneously, leading the socio-economic and financial world into a black hole.

At the same time summer 2012 will have marked a major acceleration in world geopolitical dislocation with a Syrian conflict which becomes more dangerous for the Middle East and the world day by day (3), Israeli-Iranian tension which is ready to explode at any time, and widespread testing of declining US power – from the China Sea to Latin America via the whole Muslim world. The strategic-military world is heated white-hot as the massive resumption of arms sales worldwide illustrates for that matter, with the United States supplying 85% of the total (4).

Global arms sales and principal exporters’ share (2010-2011) - Source: New York Times, 08/2012




For these reasons, LEAP/E2020 maintains its June 2012 Red Alert and estimates that, by the end of October 2012, the global economy will be sucked into a black hole against a backdrop of world geopolitics heated white-hot. Suffice it to say that the coming weeks will, according to our team, carry the planet away in a hurricane of unprecedented crises and conflicts. 

So, in this GEAB issue, LEAP/E2020 sets out the list of the seven key factors of this double shock without modern historical equivalent: 

In addition, this GEAB issue contains an anticipation of the cumulative impact of the crisis and the Internet on European retail trade, predicting a loss of 2.5 million jobs by 2015. 

This issue also contains the first of a series of three anticipations on the risks of a social explosion in Europe, the United States (GEAB N°68) and China (GEAB N°69). We decided begin with Europe which, according to our researchers, should experience “times of riots in the first half of 2013”, with of course big differences between European countries. 

Also, you will find two GEAB Indices in this issue, the GEAB $ Index and the brand new GEAB € Index, which will henceforth appear three times a year. 

And, of course, there is the GlobalEurometre which takes the pulse of Europeans’ views on key subjects. 

This month our recommendations concern currencies ($, €, £, Yen, Yuan), gold, energy and basic foodstuffs, stock exchanges and life assurance. 

Finally, you will find information on the programme for the third Euro-BRICS seminar organized in Cannes by LEAP, in partnership with the 
MGIMO on September 27th/29th, 2012 and a GEAB subscriber special offer for the online training in political anticipation organized by our partner FEFAP.

The very painful end of the US anaesthetic is at the crossroads of the seven key factors of a double shock of the coming weeks


The Fed is increasingly becoming the key player in the US property market, thus persisting in confusing the problems of liquidity and solvency. US households don’t have any more money to buy or build houses (8). Mortgage interest rates won’t change anything here. Only Wall Street, for a certain time, will be able to continue surfing on record levels until one “beautiful morning” everything collapses due to a sudden awareness that the real economy is sinking into depression. 

Indeed all the signals are already on red: employment isn’t moving up, the jobs created are paid very much less than those lost (9), poverty is exploding throughout the country (10), … and the US multinationals (11) have increased announcements of falling profits for the second half of 2012 and 2013, returning to the levels of 2008/009, typical of a recession period (12).

Number of US households participating in the Food Stamps Programme (dark line) and benefit received (red line) (2009-2012) - Source: Zerohedge, 07/2012
The US political system’s current and future impotence (13) in facing its deficit problems (14) combined with « sequestration » (15) of the Federal budget (16) the effects of which are already making themselves felt throughout the US economy (as we had anticipated from spring 2012) (17), will turn the coming weeks into an endless succession of bad economic news (18) … against a backdrop of increasingly less well-managed geopolitical challenges. Because the anaesthetic is finished on this front as well! 

It only took just a year for all the perverse effects of the 2011 Western attack on Libya to appear: from the assassination of the United States ambassador to Libya to the anti-US riots throughout the Moslem world, frankly one can’t deduce a successful policy of “accompaniment” of the Arab revolutions. 

The fierce Russian and Chinese will to support the Syrian regime against Western and Gulf monarchies’ attempts to overthrow it (19) has not only wrecked any positive dynamics at the UN Security Council but has turned itself into a test of US power in the Middle East. 

Finally, it’s the whole of East and South-East Asia (Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, South Korea,…) which, through the conflicts over numerous small islands, is in the process of testing the American capacity to stay put, face to face with China (20), an Asiatic power. And they are evaluating in real time what remains of US power in the region. By the beginning of 2013, their conclusions will recombine the alliances and allegiances inherited from the Second World War. 

And even the “back-yard” of the United States (according to the Monroe doctrine), namely Latin America, has undertaken to collectively face multi-decade US geopolitical positions: the exclusion of Cuba from trans-American fori and questioning of the war on drugs, the pillar of US interventionism in Latin America for more than forty years (21). 

Let’s quote Europe also as an anecdote, since Euroland’s accelerated integration de facto constitutes an ousting of US influence at the heart of European construction. Beginning in 2013, the IMF (i.e. Washington) will certainly be never invited again to deal with intra-Euroland problems as it is the case today with Greece. Even as regards defence, the surprise announcement of a possible BAE Systems – EADS merger, with EADS as the major shareholder (22), illustrates the end of an era when defence had to be transatlantic with the United Kingdom in charge. Whereas, from now on, BAE Systems is fighting for its life (23).
Diversification of trade relations in Latin America - In 2012 the EU became Mercosur’s primary partner  - Source: Monde Diplomatique, 07/2012

(3) Source: Yahoo/Reuters, 15/09/2012 

(4) Especially in the Persian Gulf. Source: New York Times, 26/08/2012 

(5) Sources: New York Times;, 14/08/2012; Financial Sense, 24/08/2012 

(6) Sources: CNBC, 14/09/2012; Market Watch, 29/08/2012 

(7) The Fed has therefore decided to support Barack Obama ultimately much closer to it than the new Republican wave. Not very surprising since Mitt Romney announced that he wouldn’t give Ben Bernanke a further term in office if he were elected. Source: Market Watch, 23/08/2012 

(8) Source: USAToday, 14/09/2012 

(9) Sources: USAToday, 21/08/2012; al-Jazeera, 20/08/2012; New York Times, 31/08/2012 

(10) Sources: USAToday, 23/08/2012; Bloomberg, 10/09/2012; Bloomberg, 05/09/2012 

(11) And they aren’t the only ones. Even the luxury goods industry, primarily European, is starting to panic. Source: Yahoo/Reuters, 14/09/2012 

(12) Source: Money News, 10/09/2012 

(13) Source: Der Spiegel, 17/08/2012; USAToday, 20/08/2012 

(14) The budget deficit is soaring towards new records. Source: ZeroHedge, 10/09/2012 

(15) Automatic cuts in the defence and welfare budgets. 
(16) An agreement doesn’t seem possible either on automatic cuts, or on the end of tax reductions. Source: CNBC, 11/09/2012 

(17) Source: Reuters, 07/09/2012 

(18) Of which growing damage to its commercial competitiveness, a priority of president Obama’s however. And, of course, the numerous US credit downgrades of degradations … but frankly, everyone knows that already, except the blind who amass US Treasury Bonds. Sources: Les Affaires, 11/09/2012; Market Watch, 14/09/2012; Market Watch, 14/09/2012 

(19) The United States is increasingly dependent on Saudi oil. Source: New York Times, 16/08/2012 

(20) Sources: Der Spiegel, 14/09/2012 

(21) Source: CIP Americas Program, 14/08/2012 

(22) Let’s not be mistaken here: BAE Systems is fighting for its life in this operation, not EADS. As we pointed out in the GEAB N°66, BAE Systems is one of the companies which will be strongly impacted by the Pentagon’s budgetary reductions; not only because 20% of its turnover is with the US government but also, because it’s a non-American company, its US competitors would, without any doubt, put it completely on the sidelines in these lean years. The USA-UK “special relationship” is a mild delirium which David Cameron and George Osborne must still talk about at the pub in the evening; but it no longer has any more reality on the American side. However the other large customer of BAE Systems is the British government which has massively cut its military expenditure. From where a question of survival for one or two years maximum for BAE Systems… and the only possible option: Europe, or rather Euroland with EADS. 

(23) Source: The Telegraph, 14/09/2012



and with the Syrian rebels floundering , clearly Plan b has been putt into effect to jump things off 





West Attempts to Trigger Clash of Civilizations

September 19, 2012
Al Qaeda & Islamophobic bigots working in tandem exploiting fear and ignorance. 

In France where people are sent to jail for "Holocaust denial," considered by law a religious hate crime, it seems strange then that well timed, raunchy cartoons designed solely to insult and inflame hate against and amongst Muslims worldwide would be defended vigorously by French politicians who claim, according to the Christian Science Monitor, that "freedom of the press should not be infringed."

With Neo-Conservative warmongers behind a recent inflammatory film titled, "The Innocence of Muslims," and their counterparts amongst radical sectarian extremists leading violent protests across the Middle East and North Africa, it would almost seem as if the publication of insulting cartoons by a French paper, "Charlie Hebdo," was part of a grander strategy to create a manufactured conflict between Islam and the West, setting the stage for more overt military operations to take over faltering covert operations in Syria and beyond.  

France (and the West) Are Playing Both Sides 

It is a fact that France itself has provided state sponsorship of terrorism from Libya to Syria, arming, funding, and politically backing the very groups taking to the streets, burning Western consulates, and killing bystanders, diplomats, and security forces alike. France had armedtrained, funded, and provided air support for the UN-listed terrorist outfit, the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) last year in Libya, in their bid to overthrow the government of Muammar Qaddafi.

Image: Libyan Mahdi al-Harati of the US State DepartmentUnited Nations, and the UK Home Office (page 5, .pdf)-listed terrorist organization, the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), addressing fellow terrorists in Syria. Harati is now commanding a Libyan brigade operating inside of Syria attempting to destroy the Syrian government and subjugate the Syrian population. Traditionally, this is known as "foreign invasion." France is one of a handful of nations currently leading state-sponsorship of terrorist groups like LIFG in Syria. 
....

LIFG had merged officially with Al Qaeda, according to a US Army West Point Combating Terrorism Center report in 2007, long before the French knowingly aided and abetted these terrorists in their bid to overthrow and overrun Libya. Currently, the government of France is funding and arming these very same terrorists, who promptly transferred weapons, cash, and fighters to Syria to begin terror operations there.

The report titled, "Al-Qa'ida's Foreign Fighters in Iraq" stated specifically:

The apparent surge in Libyan recruits traveling to Iraq may be linked the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group’s (LIFG) increasingly cooperative relationship with al‐Qa’ida, which culminated in the LIFG officially joining al‐Qa’ida on November 3, 2007. (page 9, .pdf)
France had recently announced its intentions to overtly arm these terror groups operating in Syria, now exposed by Human Rights Watch as carrying out systematic and widespread atrocities against the Syrian population.

The Hindu, in their article, "France to fund opposition in Syria," reported: 

"Reuters quoted a “diplomatic source” as saying France had started supporting parts of Syria that are apparently being controlled by the armed opposition. More alarmingly, the report pointed out that Paris was considering supplying heavy artillery to anti-government fighters — a move that would harden the possibility of a full-blown civil war in the country."
Now France, through its media, and the complicity of its politicians' tacit support, is providing their new terrorist allies with something else - a causus belli for confrontation with the West to reinsert in the public's mind the adversarial plot device needed to introduce more direct military intervention where the covert support of listed-terrorist groups has now seemingly failed.

The Lie We Are Expected to Believe 

What we are now expected to believe is that France, the US, UK, and other nations were benevolently, and unwittingly helping these groups into power, only to be betrayed by extremists.In reality, the nature of these militant groups was known years in advance, these groups specifically chosen to lead the violent subversion of Western targets across the Arab World - with the possibility of sectarian genocide and significant blowback acknowledged as an acceptable risk.

In 2007, an article by Seymour Hersh published in the New Yorker titled, "The Redirection" admitted that:  
"To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda." -The Redirection, Seymour Hersh (2007)
Hersh's report would also include:  
"the Saudi government, with Washington’s approval, would provide funds and logistical aid to weaken the government of President Bashir Assad, of Syria. The Israelis believe that putting such pressure on the Assad government will make it more conciliatory and open to negotiations." -The Redirection, Seymour Hersh (2007)

Clearly the West, including the complicit regimes of Nicolas Sarkozy and now François Hollande, knowingly funded terrorists. Hersh's report admits that all parties involved even in 2007 knew full well the potential dangers involved in funding terrorist groups but believed these forces could be controlled: 
"...[Saudi Arabia's] Bandar and other Saudis have assured the White House that “they will keep a very close eye on the religious fundamentalists. Their message to us was ‘We’ve created this movement, and we can control it.’ It’s not that we don’t want the Salafis to throw bombs; it’s who they throw them at—Hezbollah, Moqtada al-Sadr, Iran, and at the Syrians, if they continue to work with Hezbollah and Iran.” -The Redirection, Seymour Hersh (2007)
For the West to feign that evidence Al Qaeda is now overrunning the Middle East is somehow an unintended consequence, when officials in 2007 were on record already implementing such a policy is indeed a bold lie. To help sell that lie, the West is calling on its Neo-Conservative factions, and in particular, dusting off their Islamophobia brigades led by the likes of Daniel Pipes, a member of the Bush administration, a Project for a New American Century (PNAC) signatory, and a chief proponent for war with Syria and Iran, as well as lesser demagogues such as Robert Spencer, Pamella Geller, and David Horowitz.

The creation of a sectarian extremist front to undermine and destroy the governments of Syria and Iran began under Bush in 2007 - Syria and Iran being the specific targets Neo-Cons like Pipes have ceaselessly advocated war with. That Pipes and his compatriots are now claiming the rise of this terrorist front they themselves helped create  is somehow the result of a "pro-Islam Obama" is immense propaganda designed for the most impressionable minds.

The Plan: Flip the Script (Again) 

In reality, Obama provided left-cover for a singular corporate-financier driven agenda, decided upon decades ago, and part of the reoccurring patterns and themes that define all empires past and present.

It appears that the public is becoming increasingly aware that the US has just handed the nation of Libya over to sectarian extremists and is backing brigades of these same terrorists, now operating in Syria. The operation in Syria seems to have reached a stalemate, with the further arming and backing of increasingly visible terrorist forces a politically untenable option.

It appears that the alternative plan is to flip the script once more, turning Al Qaeda - who began as celebrated freedom fighters battling Soviets in the mountains of Afghanistan, to reviled terrorists waging a decade of war on America in Iraq and Afghanistan, to freedom fighters seeking to oust Qaddafi and President Bashar al-Assad, to once again back to reviled, embassy attacking, ambassador-killing thugs.

Seemingly fully committed to tipping off a "clash of civilizations," the ground is being prepared for false flag attacks and preparing public opinion for more direct military intervention in places like Syria and Iran. The failures of the last four years of corporate-financier driven policy is being compartmentalized around Obama and will be flushed with his presidency either in 2012, or 2016 with the hopes that the agenda itself will survive and carry on.

An Obama win in 2012 would allow the West to continue funding terrorists more openly worldwide against the governments of Syria, Iran, and even Russia and China - blaming it all on "Pro-Islam Obama." A Romney victory would allow more aggressive, direct military intervention. Either way, the nations of Syria, Iran, Russia, and China will continue to find themselves in the firing line of both covert and overt foreign military aggression. 

The overall agenda is global corporate-financier hegemony, the destruction of the nation-state, and the primacy of Wall Street-London dictated "international law" for an "international order" corporate-financier think-tank policy maker Robert Kagan concedes"serves the needs of the United States and its allies, which constructed it."

By recognizing the singular agenda front-men like Bush, Obama, and Romney cover for, we can expose the corporate-financier special interests truly dictating Western policy. By understanding that it is corporate-financier interests, not politicians, that drive these nefarious, overarching agendas, we can formulate solutions based upon undermining and replacing their power and influence, rather than becoming absorbed in short-sighted political battles that ultimately change only the front-men, not the agenda itself.


and just keeping those chemical weapons of Assad and the threat of their use alive - false flag watch remains in place....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9552147/Syrian-regime-will-deploy-chemical-weapons-as-last-resort.html

Major-General Adnan Sillu said he defected from the Syrian army three months ago after being party to top-levels talks about the use of chemical weapons on both rebel fighters and civilians.
"We were in a serious discussion about the use of chemical weapons, including how we would use them and in what areas," he told The Times, referring to a meeting held at Syria's chemical weapons centre south of Damascus.
"We discussed this as a last resort – such as if the regime lost control of an important area such as Aleppo."
Speaking from Turkey, General Sillu said he was certain President Bashar al-Assad's regime would eventually use chemical weapons against civilians, adding that the discussion had been "the last straw" which triggered his defection.
His comments come after German press reported on Tuesday that the Syrian army had tested a chemical weapons delivery system.



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