http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4116/hot-and-explosive

Hot and Explosive?

Tuesday, August 21, 2012 at 10:43 am

Yes, the past 24 hours have indeed been hot and explosive. Is it THE hot and explosive? Maybe.

As you know, I've been waiting for a "hot, explosive and historic" rally to begin. I'm sure most everyone is wondering whether or not this is the beginning of that move. In all honesty, I can only say "maybe". Let's talk about another option, first.

As you know, The Fed last met for an OMC meeting three weeks ago. At the conclusion of the meeting, the "Fedlines" were released, giving us all some idea of the things The Goon Squad discussed between steak dinners and trips to Cheetahs. Tomorrow, after a 3-week delay, we get the release of the official minutes of the meeting. As you also know, we have already had five or six occasions in 2012 where prices ran up ahead of a Fed/Bernank announcement, only to be summarily beaten back immediately following said Fedlines/press conference. This could be just another occurrence of the SpecSheep being led to the shearing barn. Could. It also might not be.

As we discussed last Friday and over the weekend, the CoT last week was very, very interesting. At 47,797, the gross commercial long position in silver is the highest I ever recall seeing it. Additionally, Uncle Ted suspected that the 4,752 increase in the gross commercial short position came almost entirely from JPM. From there, I began to wonder if we were about to witness a "civil war" in silver.

I used an analogy with Mister Hyde this morning that I think I'll use again here. Currently, the commercials in silver act collusively to crush the specs. In a way, this is similar to a pack of hyenas on the Serengeti. The pack works together to accomplish the kills but there is usually a leader, a bigger male dog that leads the pack. This is all well and good until and unless the the leader ages, becomes weaker and distracted, and becomes vulnerable. At that point, members of the pack may begin to collude to oust the leader. The remainder of the pack may begin to act collusively against the leader and, when the day comes that their confidence rises to the point where they are ready to attack, the pack turns on the leader for their own selfish, potential gain.

So, the question is: Is the silver "leader" vulnerable? Has "the pack" begun to sense the leader's vulnerability? Does the pack know something that you and I don't about the leader's health and viability and, sensing this weakness, have they turned upon the leader?

Here's that word again: Maybe. Though I am supremely confident that the metals, particularly silver, are about to charge off into uncharted territory, I cannot be certain that this is happeningright now. This is coming, however, and it is coming very soon. Perhaps the leader will survive and even play along? Maybe. In the end, it doesn't mater. Prices are going much, much higher whether they like it or not.

The metals are almost certainly getting some support from crude. As we identified last week, once crude broke out of its latest consolidation spot, it was likely to head toward $98-99, perhaps as soon as late this week. Well, we're already there, all the Iran v Israel grumblings giving things another shove higher this morning. The next short-term top and consolidation looks to come in just below par, near $99 or so. Let's see what happens from there but anyone trading might ring the cash register a little if give the opportunity to take some off near $100.

Finally, our pal Ned was on with Max earlier today and he did an outstanding job of discussing unallocated/allocated and a number of other items. I strongly suggest that you take the time to watch this video. Perhaps an admin could embed it below so that you don't have to leave the site to watch.

http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-330-max-keiser/

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12:35 pm EDT UPDATE:

On the heels of he very impressive action this week, I am ready to declare that Battle Royale I has now finally been won by the good guys. Any attempts to raid price and dip it lower will now find support at the descending line. The next major battle will now be at Battle Royale II, the line connecting the 4/11, 9/11 and 2/12 peaks. This line currently resides near 30.50, which is the area where we also find the 200-day moving average.

and.....

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/

MONDAY, AUGUST 20, 2012

Boom Goes The Dynamite: Silver Pops

But gold has risen with only slightly more than 1% of the world’s assets in gold. Right now the world’s assets are about $150 trillion. Of that number, $60 trillion is in cash, $40 trillion is in bonds, and $40 trillion is in stocks. But, remarkably, only $2 trillion or just a bit over 1% is in gold.

With inflation headed higher, institutions, which have virtually no allocation to gold today, they will have to increase their allocation to gold. There have been several studies over the last few months that have suggested that institutions will need to put part of their funds in gold.

If you look at world financial assets, a 1% increase in allocation to gold of the world’s financial assets would require 12 years of gold production at today’s prices. There simply isn’t the gold available at today’s prices to facilitate even a small move by institutional money into the sector. Of course they can never get a sizable commitment into gold at these prices.

I would also add that over time they will put a lot more than 1% into gold. The studies I reference also suggest that institutions will improve their risk vs return situation by moving money into gold. So I am convinced that there will be a big inflow of institutional money into gold over the next two or three years

- Egon Von Greyerz on King World News

After almost 9 weeks of trying to break over $28, silver closed over over $28 on Thurs/Friday and, after a concerted and blatant attempt by the silver manipulating banks to take silver below $28 this morning, it inexplicably shot up like a roman candle at 9:12 a.m. Denver time. I say "inexplicably" because I could not find any specific news which might have triggered the move, the SPX did not move at all (so the move in silver was not in correlation with the stock market) and gold moved higher higher as well although not anything that closely correlates with the scale of silver's move.

As subscribers to GATA's Le Metropolecafe know, one of Bill Murphy's sources in Switzerland - someone who is described as being in a position to know - has told Bill that JP Morgan is in trouble with its short position in silver. Please note, that we only see JP Morgan's massive, illegal but unpoliced short position on the NY Comex market. We have no idea what its short position on the LBMA or in OTC silver derivatives looks like (although we do know that JP Morgan has by far the largest position in OTC "metals" derivatives per the quarterly BIS report).

Beyond that we do not know much other than JP Morgan has been the big manipulator in the silver market for many years and likely does so on behalf of the Federal Reserve/U.S. Government. We also know that at some point in the future that JPM's paper short position in silver is potentially the equivalent of a small nuclear device embedded deeply the bank's bowels. The trigger will be the point at which counterparties to JPM's short position demand physical delivery of the silver JPM is derivatively short on the Comex, LBMA and OTC derivatives market.

On this note, given that JPM is the custodian for the massive SLV ETF, which means JPM is the gatekeeper on the enormous stockpile that SLV is supposed to have stored in JPM-controlled vaults, I would not advise anyone to own SLV. SLV, like GLD, has the potential to be another Enron. Just for the record, JP Morgan was one of Enron's primary advisory banks.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2012/08/lord-rothschild-bets-against-eurosilver.html

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen

Gold closed up today by $3.60 to $1620.10. Silver was the star of the day rising past the resistance level of $28.50 to close at $28.59.

Here are your access market closes;

gold; $1620.40

silver; $28.81

Bill Murphy accurately describes the gold and silver trading today:

Gold was dropped to $1609, while silver fell below $28 yet again (Spot Kitco price) to $27.86, but then recovered to go modestly positive.

THEN, after a couple hours of trading, everything changed and it ALL had to do with silver. Friday it traded very heavily, as was emphasized. Gold followed that heaviness by trading down this morning. Today, after that dip, silver went PLUS with most markets NEGATIVE. The price then began to creep up and then exploded when it took out recent $28.31 highs. THERE WAS NO NEWS OR OUTSIDE MARKET ACTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SPIKE.

Silver made constant new highs for the rest of the Comex trading session, rising to $28.71 (Kitco price). Gold was dragged up by silver, making it to $1622.50, above its nearest Gold Cartel resistance of $1620.

The next two key levels to watch in silver is $29.00 and then $30.00. Each has a sizable resistance level.

If those levels are pierced then there will be nothing stopping silver as the long paper players will engage with the bankers who are trying to get out of their shortfall. These players also collide with players wishing only to obtain physical. There will be nobody supplying the paper as the bankers would be forced to cover their shorts (i.e. they are buying as well). We then have a plethora of buyers and no sellers.

Something must have frightened our banker friends over at JPMorgan today!!.

Europe saw the Spanish stock market fall for the first time in 10 days by over 1%. At one point in the day it was down a full 2%. Spanish 10 yr bonds are still trading as if a bailout in imminent. Perhaps the biggest news came on Sunday whereby Lord Rothschild made a huge bet against the Euro. He is not banking on the demise of the Euro, just simply that it is deemed weaker than the USA and British pound. We will be going over these and other major stories but first .....

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The total gold comex OI fell by 974 contracts from 386,408 to 385,434 as the bankers finally seem to be covering their massive shorts. The front August month saw its OI mysteriously rise by 50 contracts from 369 to 419. We had 131 delivery notices filed on Friday so in essence we gained 181 contracts or 18,100 oz of gold. The September delivery month saw its OI fall by 61 contracts to 1279. The next official delivery month is October and here the OI fell by only 354 contracts from 30,275 to 29,921. We have less than 2 weeks before first day notice on August 31.2012. The estimated volume today at the gold comex came in at an unbelievable low 67,980 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was also extremely anemic at 82,597. It seems that players have vacated the paper gold comex for real physical in other jurisdictions.

The total silver comex OI saw its OI fall by 1072 contracts from 126,889 to 125,817 as the bankers fear death (they tried to cover today). The front August silver month saw its OI fall from 81 to 59 for a loss of 22 contracts. We had 26 delivery notices on Friday so we gained another 4 notices or 20,000 oz of additional silver standing. The next delivery month is September which is traditionally a weak one at that, as most paper players seek the high volatility of December. The Sept. OI fell by 3477 contracts from 40,776 to 37,299. Most of these players rolled into December. The estimated volume today was fair at 36,599. The confirmed volume on Friday was very weak at 29,036.

****

we gained an additional 18100 physical oz of gold standing. This is quite a showing for August gold deliveries.

****

August 20.2012: silver

We had very little activity for a change in the silver comex vaults today.
We had no dealer activity and no customer deposit.

We had the following customer withdrawal:

i) Out of Brinks: 214,220.29 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 1,104.91 oz

total withdrawal by the customer: 215,235.2 oz
we had no adjustments.

Thus the dealer inventory rests tonight at 35.479 million oz
The total of all silver rests at 140.461 million oz.

The CME notified us that we had zero notices filed for zero oz. The total number of notices filed for the month remain at 184 for 920,000 oz. To obtain what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing for
August (59) and subtract out today's delivery notices (0) which leaves us with 59 or 295,000 oz

Thus the total number of silver oz standing continues to advance:

920,000 oz (served) + 290,000 oz (to be served upon) = 1,215,000 oz

we promised you a total delivery of over 1 million silver oz for this month and it seems that this prediction is bearing fruit.

****

Cash-for-gold shops boom as Italians sell off their bling

ITALY'S TRADITIONAL GOLDSMITHS ARE UP IN ARMS OVER A BOOM IN THE POORLY REGULATED CASH-FOR-GOLD SECTOR THAT IS MAKING BILLIONS FOR THE MAFIA AS HARD-UP ITALIANS RUSH TO SELL OFF THEIR BLING.

2:09PM BST 05 Aug 2012

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Cash-for-gold shops have filled Italy's streets in recent months, with blanket television adverts urging Italians to sell off their medallions and jewels for quick cash, AFP reports.

Much of the gold eventually makes its way across the Alps to Switzerland - whether legally or smuggled across the border - making gold Italy's fastest growing export and Switzerland an increasingly prominent market for Italy.

Custom seizures of gold are up 50pc, officials say, with one of the latest cases a father and daughter arrested trying to get out 110 pounds of the metal worth over €2m in unmarked ingots.

"It's a booming sector for criminal organisations. Smuggled gold ends up all over the world, in countries where it is swapped for arms, drugs, you name it," said Ranieri Razzante, head of AIRA, an anti-money laundering watchdog.

Legal gold sales to Switzerland totalled 120 tonnes last year - up from 73 tonnes in 2010 and 64 tonnes in 2009, with foundries built on the border having to work flat out to meet demand and almost daily truckloads crossing over.

By Christopher Booker

7:00PM BST 18 Aug 2012

327 Comments

While attention in this country was focused on the delights of the Olympics, almost wholly unnoticed here has been the extraordinary drama unfolding in Germany – portending a truly seismic shift in the history of the European Union. The Germans have at last peered into the abyss that opens in front of them as a result of pouring all that money into the debts of their eurozone partners. To say that they don’t like what they see is a wild understatement.

Reported daily in such papers as Die Welt, Handelsblatt and Der Spiegel, a succession of politicians, financiers and commentators have concluded that, with Greece about to go bankrupt and Spain and Italy to follow, enough is enough. Certainly, they argue, Greece must be allowed to leave the euro. But so, many add, must Spain, Italy and others. Indeed, so dire has this crisis become – with one senior politician estimating Germany’s potential liability at more than $1 trillion – that voices are now being raised to say that the only practical solution to this mess would be for Germany itself to abandon the euro. The rest of the eurozone could thus be left to sink or swim with a currency which, without Germany’s backing, would face a massive devaluation.

Anyone wanting to see the kind of headlines which have been reflecting this drama – “Greece must go bankrupt”, “Multiple countries must leave the euro”, “Germany’s trillion-dollar liability”, “The current imbalances will blow Europe apart”, “Germany must withdraw from the euro” – can find them on my colleague Richard North’s blog,

www.eureferendum.com, where he has been reporting on it daily.

According to North (formerly a research director in the European Parliament), one of the oddest features of this crisis is how little it has been reported outside Germany. Britain is far from alone in being oblivious to the huge significance of what is happening. This is partly because so much is fogged by the public show put on by other European players, notably the Commission and the head of the European Central Bank, to promote the idea that “the euro cannot be allowed to fail”. It was always intended to be the supreme symbol of the European project’s overriding aim, to weld the countries of Europe together in full fiscal and political union. But this would now require a major new treaty, with a further massive surrender of national sovereignty.

The likelihood of such a treaty being ratified – since it would require a slew of referendums, several of which would probably be lost – is remote. Above all, such a treaty would have to be ratified by Germany itself, and next month her constitutional court will rule on whether, a step towards this would be a breach of her Basic Law, which forbids any surrender of sovereignty to an outside power. Angela Merkel, facing an election next year, cannot afford to ignore the evidence of the polls – that a vast majority of her people say they have had enough of being expected to bail out their failing neighbours indefinitely.

Without question, this is by far the gravest crisis the “project” has ever faced, but one which it has hubristically brought on itself, with all the inevitability of a Greek tragedy, by that gamble it took in the 1990s, to impose a common currency without first creating the political union without which (as was observed at the time) it could not work. As telling as anything in this drama has been the silence of France, under its new president, François Hollande, who, if anything, sides with those who look to Germany to bail them out. The old “Franco-German motor” is dying – and with it the entire project it drove forward for 50 years.

As for us British, sitting impotently on the sidelines, we are irrelevant. But the crash, when it comes, will of course draw us down with it, as in the coming months it makes front-page news across the world.

*****

Schaeuble Rules Out New Aid Plan For Greece, Cites ‘Limits’

By Rainer Buergin and Brian Parkin - Aug 18, 2012 1:47 PM ET

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German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out another aid program for Greece even though the country is in a “very difficult situation” with a shrinking economy.

“It can’t be helped -- we can’t make yet another new program,” Schaeuble told visitors today at his ministry’s open day in Berlin. “There are limits.”

Enlarge image

Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. Photographer: Michele Tantussi/Bloomberg

Gross domestic product has declined by more than 20 percent in four to five years in Greece, which also has highunemployment, he said. Two bailouts totaling 240 billion euros ($296 billion) have been implemented for the nation since theEuropean debt crisis began, and the country is now contending with austerity measures needed to qualify for more aid.

Greece faces a financing gap of 14 billion euros in each of the next two years, a delegation from the so-called troika of the European Commission, European Central Bank andInternational Monetary Fund has found, according to Spiegel magazine today. That compares with a previous estimate of 11.5 billion euros a year, Spiegel said, without saying where it got the information.

The sovereign-debt crisis mustn’t become a “bottomless pit” for Germany, even thoughEurope’s biggest economy would pay the highest price in a breakup of the euro region, Schaeuble said. Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras wants the country’s fiscal adjustment program to be extended by two years to the end of 2016.

TWO YEARS

Greece’s economy would contract at a slower pace in 2013 and expand in 2014 if two extra years were granted, Athens-based newspaper Imerisia reported today, citing unidentified finance ministry officials.

Samaras will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Aug. 24 in Berlin and French PresidentFrancois Hollande on Aug. 25 in Paris to lobby for an easing of bailout terms.

European leaders have struggled to contain the debt crisis that’s roiling the 17-nation region. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Aug. 2 the bank would buy sovereign bonds to bring down yields if countries applied for support from Europe’s rescue fund and accepted conditions.

Market reaction to the debt crisis isn’t justified by the “objective figures,” and public finances in the U.S. are in worse shape than the euro region’s, Schaeuble said today. It would still be “stupid” not to make contingency plans in case rescue efforts don’t work out as planned, he said.

EUROPEAN STOCKS CLIMB

Spanish 10-year bond prices rose for the first week this month in the most recent week and German 10-year bund prices fell on the view the European Central Bank and European Union will take steps to bail out the Iberian nation. Expectations of European economic stimulus drove the region’s stocks this past week to the highest level in 13 months.

While the prospect of the euro failing is “nonsensical speculation” and would be very expensive for Germany, the region’s debt crisis won’t be solved in just a few months, and “it will take time” for confidence to return to financial markets, Schaeuble said.

“Many are telling us now to turn a blind eye to debt reduction” to save the euro, Schaeuble said, rejecting the option to let the ECB finance government debt. “That would only postpone the problem to tomorrow.”

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Mike Hudson8/21/2012
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Catharsis Ours

Monday, August 20, 2012

JP Morgan in trouble with their silver short position ? Is the SLV ETF in trouble if JP Morgan is in trouble ? Harvey's blogspot - silver and gold news ( keep your eyes on silver everyone ) and non redundant news items of the day....

Hot and Explosive?

MONDAY, AUGUST 20, 2012

Boom Goes The Dynamite: Silver Pops

Cash-for-gold shops boom as Italians sell off their bling

ITALY'S TRADITIONAL GOLDSMITHS ARE UP IN ARMS OVER A BOOM IN THE POORLY REGULATED CASH-FOR-GOLD SECTOR THAT IS MAKING BILLIONS FOR THE MAFIA AS HARD-UP ITALIANS RUSH TO SELL OFF THEIR BLING.

Germany may be the country that brings the euro crashing down

THOUGH LARGELY UNNOTICED IN BRITAIN, A POLITICAL STORM IS BREWING IN GERMANY

EUROPEAN STOCKS CLIMB

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