Wednesday, August 22, 2012

2012 Pro Farmer Midwest Tour focusing on soy beans and corn - Ohio , South /dakota final yield results are going to be far worse than what USDA forcasts , Nebraska and Indiana somewhat better but still grim...... buckle up , the ride is going to get bumpy

http://www.agweb.com/article/day_2_press_release_2012_pro_farmer456_midwest_crop_tour/


Day 2 Press Release: 2012 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour

AUGUST 22, 2012
By: Meghan Pedersen, Pro Farmer Associate Editor
The second day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour concluded with the release of results in Indiana and Nebraska. Indiana samples resulted in an average corn yield of 113.25 bu. per acre. The final average corn yield for Nebraska is 131.79 bu. per acre. Pod counts in a 3’X3’ square yielded an average of 1,033.24 pods in Indiana and 894.43 pods in Nebraska.
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Pro Farmer Senior Market Analyst and eastern Tour Director Brian Grete says, "While the corn was improved from what I had seen on Day 1, there were still only two fields that I felt represented "good" corn for the area we were in. The other seven samples showed the effects of stressful growing conditions." Grete also noted a long stretch of hail damage in Tippecanoe County.
Indiana soybeans were benefiting from improved topsoil moisture after recent rains, according to Grete. He says that will help them fill pods, though most of the plants were done flowering.
Grete says conditions worsened "right at the border" into Illinois and noted this area typically produces top-end yields. He reports much of the corn sampled on Day 2 reflected stress to ear development and stalk problems. Another result of extreme stress was advanced development of the crop and a number of fields having been chopped for silage.
Eastern Tour Consultant Mark Bernard reports high variability on his Day 2 route. "We recorded a low of 0 in Pulaski Co. and the next sample we pulled was our high at 188 bu. per acre on the other side of the county… neither field was irrigated," he explains. Soybean pod counts were equally varied on Bernard’s route.
"Being a bug, weed and disease guy, I was more in my element today," Bernard says. He found gray leaf spot and some corn ear worm. "In the soybeans we found the first SDS we’ve seen on this Crop Tour in Kankakee Co., IL," Bernard continues.
Like Grete, he notes weak ear shanks and says the integrity of the stalks was beginning to be an issue.
Western Tour Leader and Pro Farmer Editor Chip Flory says unfortunately, his route found exactly what they feared they see -- a poor corn and soybean crop in Nebraska. "I honestly didn't see the risk of a significant cut to USDA's corn crop estimate of 10.8 billion bushels. After two days on the western leg of the Tour, I now see a risk of a significant cut to the 2012-13 corn supply," he says.
Chip points to an encounter with a harvesting farmer yesterday (get more on this here) as an example of the wide variability of yields seen within the same field and the problem with kernel size this growing season. "In a normal year, it takes about 90,000 kernels to make a bushel of corn, but the dryland corn in Nebraska this year might make a half bushel with 90,000 kernels," Flory explains.
Soybeans were better than Day 1, Flory says, but he quips, "Beans on day 2 of the Tour were a lot like the economic data we see every day: It's not good... it's just less bad than expected."
Western Tour Consultant Jason Franck says his first four stops in southeast Nebraska yesterday were "a dream" as they averaged more than 200 bu. per acre. As he moved into dryland areas, yields declined, but Franck says this is where he was actually more impressed because "even though corn plants had shut down, consistency was much better within the fields and there was a much better ear:stalk ratio than we say on the first day of the Tour."
But he did wonder why harvest wasn’t underway as dryland corn there was at black layer. A local grower delivered the following answer: "The moisture range within the fields is from 12% to 25% and I'm done spending money on this crop."
Regarding the dryland corn, Franck says, "Each and every one of these fields had stalks that were weak and the nodes we stringy and necrotic… Corn through the combine and in the bin is worth more than it is if it's lying flat in the field."
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Franck describes soybeans on his route as "remarkably good" with even dryland beans much improved over the first day of the Tour. "One big advantage to the soybeans on day two was the fact that very little disease was present. Additionally, most plants that we sampled had plump seeds in them and have the potential to finish well under the right environment," he reports.
Today, Tour scouts on the eastern leg will begin their day in Bloomington, Illinois and will end in Iowa City, Iowa with the release of official yield data for Illinois. The western leg of the Tour will depart from Nebraska City, Nebraska and end in Spencer, Iowa. The final results can be found at ProFarmer.com andAgWeb.com.


and......

http://www.agweb.com/article/day_1_press_release_pro_farmer_midwest_crop_tour/082112/

Day 1 Press Release: Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour

AUGUST 21, 2012
By: Meghan Pedersen, Pro Farmer Associate Editor
The first day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour concluded with the release of official final yield results in Ohio and South Dakota. Ohio samples resulted in an average corn yield of 110.50 bu. per acre. The final average corn yield for South Dakota is 74.26 bu. per acre. Pod counts in a 3’X3’ square yielded an average of 1,033.72 pods in Ohio and 584.93 pods in South Dakota.
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Pro Farmer Senior Market Analyst and eastern Tour Director Brian Grete says "weather on Day 1 was near ideal, but that was all that was perfect. Crops in western Ohio and eastern Indiana were far below the norm" due to severe heat and moisture stress.
He says conditions only worsened as his route moved east through Indiana, and noted much of the corn in Indiana was extremely short and "from what other scouts found on different routes suffered from poor ear development, pollination problems and severe tipback."
For soybeans, Grete says his route "found an average pod count in a 3’X3’ square of 794.8 in Ohio and 1,025.3 in Indiana. While the Indiana pod counts on our route were better than Ohio, they were still below the norm for the counties we sampled." He also noted heavy weed pressure.
"This year, we asked our veteran scouts to do a little extra in tracking abandoned acres and beans per pod. Day 1 abandonment was much less prevalent than expected and beans per pod were higher than anticipated," says Grete.
Eastern Tour Consultant Mark Bernard says his route was the "polar opposite from what I’d been on the previous two years in Ohio. Overall crop health was generally okay with minor leaf disease pressure in corn showing up recently in the form of a little gray leaf spot and northern corn leaf blight in the corn. Also some common smut was noted in the most drought stressed corn."
One thing that stuck out to him was the weakness of the ear shanks in drought stricken areas. "When we’d pull the ears for a sample, they’d snap off with very little effort," he explains, which could lead to trouble when combines roll or if a strong wind event occurs.
Bernard says soybean disease on his route was generally light with some two-spotted spider mite and bean leaf beetle infestations.
Western Tour Leader and Pro Farmer Editor Chip Flory says crops on his route yesterday were even worse than expected. The average corn yield on his route was 60 bu. per acre (which included a yield of 0 and 7 bu. per acre). Flory says this is "the worst South Dakota corn crop I've seen since we started running a western leg of the Midwest Crop Tour (in the late 1990s)."
He continues to say it was the consistency of the poor yields that was especially troubling and noted that his samples were all from District 9 – the most concentrated area of corn and soybean production in the state. (See "From the Rows" for a detailed breakdown of what’s wrong with the corn crop.)
Beans weren’t in good shape either. "Last year, the average pod count in a 3'X3' square was about 1,107. This year, the average pod count was 584.93 — down an astounding 47.1% from last year and down a touch more than that from the three-year average," Flory elaborates. While normally he would say this doesn’t necessarily mean yield will be smaller as bean size can plump the end of August, this year Flory doesn’t think there will be any surprises.
Western Tour Consultant Jason Franck says his first two stops on day 1 resulted in yields over 100 bu. per acre on corn and mistakenly thought this would be the trend. Rather, the next three stops in South Dakota "were beyond bad. One ear (yes... 1 ear) in two 30' rows does not make a good corn yield. With the lack of rain as we moved south, the ears ended up being malformed, poorly pollinated, and just plain not there."
Franck said the poor state of the soybean crop – specifically the low pod counts – were the biggest shock to him. He also notes that "many of the plants did not start podding until about 10" off the ground, showing that we had aborted pods early and then the lack of overall pods was a result of the challenging conditions throughout the remaining growing season.
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He says as his route moved into more irrigated areas soybeans greened up and increased pod counts, but noted that "before we got there, we saw consistently uneven and weedy soybean fields." He also noted charcoal rot in one irrigated field.
Today, Tour scouts on the eastern leg will begin their day in Fishers, Indiana, and will end in Bloomington, Illinois. The western leg of the Tour will depart from Grand Island, Nebraska, and end in Nebraska City, Nebraska. Official Tour data for Indiana and Nebraska will be released this evening.

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