http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/10/994521/you-cannot-be-syriza/
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/10/2012 13:39 -0400
PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos will hold talks on Friday with his counterparts at New Democracy and the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) with the aim of agreeing on a framework for a unity government after Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis on Thursday backed the formation of an ecumenical administration.
Kouvelis had previously insisted he would not enter a coalition with ND and PASOK as long as the two parties remained committed to the austerity policies applied over the last two years. The Democratic Left chief now appears to believe that a unity government with a specific agenda could meet his two specific goals of keeping Greece in the euro and moving the country away from the fiscal restrictions of the program agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.
“The moment of truth is approaching for everyone,” said Kouvelis. “I propose the formation of an ecumenical government made up of trustworthy political figures that will reflect and respect the message from the elections.
“This government’s mission, which will have a specific program and time frame that will last until the European elections of 2014, will be twofold: firstly, to keep the country in the European Union and euro and, secondly, to gradually disengage from the [EU-IMF] memorandum.”
Kouvelis, whose name has been linked with the post of prime minister in any unity government, stressed that he and his party do not harbor ambitions of power.
Venizelos, who met President Karolos Papoulias yesterday to receive the mandate to explore options for forming a government, said he was encouraged by the content of his talks with Kouvelis.
“The discussion I had with Mr Kouvelis was very substantive,” said the PASOK leader. “Mr Kouvelis set out a specific and responsible proposal. We are very close, it is virtually in line with our suggestion for the creation of a national unity government that seeks to move beyond the memorandum within three years.”
Sources said that Venizelos and Kouvelis realize that the formation of a government with the support of New Democracy but not SYRIZA would raise questions about its viability. Sunday’s elections saw the leftist coalition more than treble its share of the vote to 16.78 percent, which gave it 52 seats in Parliament. Although a PASOK-ND-Democratic Left administration would have a total of 168 seats, there are fears that SYRIZA’s growing popularity, along with opposition from the other parliamentary parties - Independent Greeks, the Communist Party [KKE) and Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) - which are all opposed to the EU-IMF memorandum, would make governing difficult.
You cannot be Syriza!
If Greece ends the reform process it has undertaken, then I can’t see that the respective tranches [of aid] can be paid out.
– Guido Westerwelle
If Greece does not decide to stay in the eurozone we can’t force them to stay in it.
– Wolfgang Schäuble
If I had political responsibility, I would want to prepare myself for a plan B in which the eurozone is no longer necessarily composed of 17 members.
– Peer Steinbrück
A selection of ifs there, from the German foreign minister and current and former finance ministers respectively. (H/T Open Europe.)
So, are they bluffing? The Greek anti-bailout parties who might win June’s repeat election – are they bluffing (more), about rejecting the EU-IMF programme? It does look like a repeat election, despite Pasok’s attempt at coalition-building.
Though here’s an optimistic take on how an election might go, from the economics research team at Credit Suisse (our emphasis):
As of now, the outcome of a new election is unclear. The Syriza party has strong momentum and if its attempts to form a pre-election coalition with other left parties are successful, it is likely that it will see its support increasing and challenge the first place position. On the other hand, the two traditional parties – New Democracy and PASOK –could, in fear of an ungoverned country, gain back a share of the “protest votes” and strengthen their position. Finally, the liberal pro-reform parties, that collectively had more than 6% of the votes, but are not represented in parliament (because each one failed to reach the 3% threshold) might decide to form a pre-election coalition, or their voters may migrate to the other mainstream parties.
Maybe. But it seems Syriza could also get a chunk of swing votes in a second election. For example, many supporters of the Communists (26 seats) are annoyed that the party is seemingly refusing to join any coalitions.
There’s also the question of whether a victorious Syriza would be bound by its policy promises — quick recap: debt moratorium, leave the bailout, no wage cuts, nationalise the banks but stay in the euro. From Credit Suisse:
If a second election led to the creation of a left-leaning coalition (led by Syriza) which opted to reject the EU/IMF programme outright. Then, if the EU and IMF refused to accept that, further EU/IMF funds would not be disbursed. In turn, that would likely to lead to a renewed default on the new Greek bonds, prevent the recapitalization of Greek banks and the ability of the government to finance its primary deficit. That would also prevent the ability of Greek banks to fund themselves from the ECB.Again, maybe. But we’re increasingly interested to find out whether Syriza – if it does take a majority – could find some kind of formula to live with a continued programme.Clearly, Tsipras isn’t a political ingenue. Plus, the Syriza plaform is self-contradictory: finding room for a halt to wage cuts arithmetically means finding more bailout loans to pick up the slack. And we really do want to reiterate that even the IMF was far from hostile to spreading out Greece’s fiscal adjustment by another year, in its last bailout review.But… what are the costs of provoking a voter backlash or unrest? The latest figures show unemployment at a new record high of 21.7 per cent in February, with 53.8 per cent of 15-24 year olds out of work.And Greece’s debt repayment schedule – i.e., opportunities for moratoria — remains merciless. A closing chart from Credit Suisse:
and from Athens New election live blog.....
9.26pm Here are the results of a Marc poll, conducted two days after the elections and aired by Alpha TV. Syriza are still growing in power it seems, while all other parties are losing voters. the breakdown is as follows:
Syriza - 27.7 (128 seats)
New Democracy - 20.3 (57 seats)
Pasok - 12.6 (36 seats)
Independent Greeks - 10.2 (29 seats)
KKE 7 (20 seats)
Golden Dawn 5.7 (16 seats)
Democratic Left 4.9 (14 seats)
8.32pm The initial reaction by the Independent Greeks to the proposal by Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis for the creation of an all-party government, with a two-year horizon and the aim of the country's stay in the euro, has been negative.
Independent Greeks spokesman Terence Quick, speaking to AMNA, said that what the party's president Panos Kammenos said in his recent address to the Parliamentary Group is valid.
Kammenos had stressed that a national purpose government' must come together and if the parties that supported the memorandum decide to recognise their mistakes and withdraw their binding signatures, then his party would participate in an coalition government on the abolition of the memorandum, the loan contracts, and immediate proclamation of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
8.29pm The mayor of Nemea Vangelis Andrianakos on Thursday reported that he had received threats from the Golden Dawn - Chrysi Avgi MP for Corinth Efstathios Boukouris. The mayor said that Boukouris called him on the telephone shortly after midnight on Sunday, when the result of the general elections became known, and said he would become his "shadow" in Nemea "and make you start in your sleep". In an informal meeting of the municipal council convened so that the mayor might inform councillors of the threats, Boukouris also sent him a message via an opposition municipal councillor, the mayor said in a written complaint to police and a public prosecutor in Corinth.
Boukouris has denied the accusation, saying that Andrianakos was making the claim in order to damage his reputation and that of the Chrysi Avgi party.
7.47pm Euro zone countries are prepared to keep financing Greece until the country forms a new government, whether one emerges from Sunday's election or if new elections have to be held next month, euro zone officials said on Thursday. "I expect an announcement of new elections in Greece by Sunday at the latest," one euro zone official said. "My understanding is that a second election in Greece could be by mid-June. We have the means to support Greece through the end of June," a second euro zone official said.
"We will provide enough funds for Greece to stay afloat for as long as the political decision is clarified,"the first euro zone official said.
"There is no use letting them default in the middle of things. That is what yesterday was all about - giving them enough money to stay afloat and not induce new chaos if people are not paid, but not giving them more than the bare minimum to discourage parties which say that 'we can do whatever we want and they will still save us because it is in the EU's interest.'"
The euro zone's temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), agreed on Wednesday to immediately disburse 4.2 billion out of a 5.2 billion sub-tranche of the bailout to Athens, retaining 1 billion to be paid out in June as necessary.
"I think that in the collective thinking we have already accepted that we will not get 100 percent back," the first official said, indicating that it may be necessary at some point in the future to write down the value of official loans to Greece.
and consider this as well.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/full-letter-greek-anti-coalition-leader-tsipras-european-leadership
Full Letter From Greek "Anti-Bailout" Coalition Leader Tsipras To "The European Leadership"
Below is the letter that the man who will most likely be Greece's next premier sent out earlier today to "the European leadership" including Jean-Claude "I only lie when it is reeeeeealy important" Juncker, and Gollum Van Vompuy. According to local, pro-bailout Greek media, the tone is far more conciliatory than his remarks from the past few days. Well, it must be google-translated Greek to us, because we sure don't see much if any conciliation in the letter.
Full goog-translated copy below (original here):
Letter from the President of the Group SYRIZA MCM , A word Tsipras
the European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso
the President of the European Council Van Rompuy
the President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz
Notification:
the President of the European Council Van Rompuy
the President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz
Notification:
President of European Central Bank Mario Drago
President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker
Athens, Thursday 10 May 2012
President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker
Athens, Thursday 10 May 2012
Dear Mr. President,
I am sending you this letter after receipt of the exploratory mandate from the Greek President to ascertain the possibility of forming a Government enjoying the confidence of Parliament, under our Constitution. This letter builds upon the previous letter I sent on 21 February.
The vote of the Greek people Sunday May 6th nullifies/delegitimizes/makes illegal the political Memorandum of Understanding / Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policy signed by the previous Papademos government and the leaders of two political parties that had guaranteed the parliamentary majority of his government. Both parties recorded a loss of roughly 3.5 million votes, totaling 33.5% share of total votes.
Please note that before this, the MoU / MEFP had already been delegitimized in terms of its potential for economic success. But it's not just that the Memorandum of Understanding / MEFP failed to achieve its own objectives. It has also failed to address the structural imbalances and inequalities of the Greek economy. SYRIZA noted over the years the inherent weaknesses of the economy. All governments who work closely with the European Union ignored our recommendations for specific reforms.
Please also note that because of the policies of the Memorandum of Understanding / MEFP, Greece in 2012 is the only European country to endure its fifth successive year of deep recession during peacetime. Moreover the Bond Exchange Program (PSI) has failed to ensure the long-term viability of Greek debt which continues rising as a share of GDP. Austerity can in no way be the cure to recession. Therefore the immediate, socially just, reversal of the continuous decline of our economy is imperative.
We must urgently ensure economic and social stability in our country. For this purpose, we must take every political initiative to reverse the austerity and recession. Because apart from the lack of democratic legitimacy, continuing a program of internal devaluation is leading economy to catastrophy without creating conditions for recovery. The internal devaluation tends to lead to a humanitarian crisis.
Thus we need to rethink the entire context of the existing strategy, since it not only threatens Greece's social cohesion and stability, but is also a source of instability for the European Union and the EuroZone itself.
The common future of the European peoples is under the threat of such catastrophic choices. It is our deeply held belief that the economic crisis is of a European nature, and thus the solution must be found at the European level.
Sincerely,
Alexis Tsipras
President K.O SYRIZA
Vice President of the European Left Party
and note the following.....
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_5099_10/05/2012_441585
Venizelos eyes unity deal after agreement with Democratic Left
  |
Kouvelis had previously insisted he would not enter a coalition with ND and PASOK as long as the two parties remained committed to the austerity policies applied over the last two years. The Democratic Left chief now appears to believe that a unity government with a specific agenda could meet his two specific goals of keeping Greece in the euro and moving the country away from the fiscal restrictions of the program agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.
“The moment of truth is approaching for everyone,” said Kouvelis. “I propose the formation of an ecumenical government made up of trustworthy political figures that will reflect and respect the message from the elections.
“This government’s mission, which will have a specific program and time frame that will last until the European elections of 2014, will be twofold: firstly, to keep the country in the European Union and euro and, secondly, to gradually disengage from the [EU-IMF] memorandum.”
Kouvelis, whose name has been linked with the post of prime minister in any unity government, stressed that he and his party do not harbor ambitions of power.
Venizelos, who met President Karolos Papoulias yesterday to receive the mandate to explore options for forming a government, said he was encouraged by the content of his talks with Kouvelis.
“The discussion I had with Mr Kouvelis was very substantive,” said the PASOK leader. “Mr Kouvelis set out a specific and responsible proposal. We are very close, it is virtually in line with our suggestion for the creation of a national unity government that seeks to move beyond the memorandum within three years.”
Sources said that Venizelos and Kouvelis realize that the formation of a government with the support of New Democracy but not SYRIZA would raise questions about its viability. Sunday’s elections saw the leftist coalition more than treble its share of the vote to 16.78 percent, which gave it 52 seats in Parliament. Although a PASOK-ND-Democratic Left administration would have a total of 168 seats, there are fears that SYRIZA’s growing popularity, along with opposition from the other parliamentary parties - Independent Greeks, the Communist Party [KKE) and Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) - which are all opposed to the EU-IMF memorandum, would make governing difficult.
| However, ND, PASOK and Democratic Left will have to balance this against the possibility that if no agreement is reached and new elections are held, SYRIZA will increase its share of the vote and the others will see their support decline. An opinion poll conducted by Marc for Alpha TV indicatedon Thursday that this is exactly what would happen. It put SYRIZA in first place on 23.8 percent, followed by ND on 17.4, PASOK on 10.8, Independent Greeks on 8.7, KKE on 6, Chrysi Avgi on 4.9 and Democratic Left on 4.2. SYRIZA’s initial reaction to the consensus between PASOK and Democratic Left suggests the leftist coalition will find it difficult to accept a role in a unity government. Sources says SYRIZA believes the administration would not do enough to prevent harsh cuts in the months ahead. SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras wrote to EU officials on Thursday to argue that the election result had taken away political legitimacy from the memorandum and that the terms of the agreement should be “re-examined,” which was a softer stance than the outright rejection of the deal the party seemed to have been advocating in its election campaign. |
No comments:
Post a Comment