http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/04/24/frech-elections-hollande-ahead-in-first-poll-after-round-one-30-2/
http://www.france24.com/en/20120423-french-left-front-gauche-melenchon-hollande-sarkozy-le-pen-elections-president
FRENCH ELECTIONS: Hollande ahead in first poll after Round One
Probably only a major deal with Bayrou could give Sarko victory now
A French poll just released (fieldwork conducted last Sunday night) suggests that Francois Hollande looks likely to beat Nicolas Sarkozy in their head-to-head Round Two election two weeks from now by around 10 percentage points. But that result is, I suspect, misleading.
Many people in the States and the UK may find this Hollande lead strange, given that if one adds Sarkozy’s score of 25.5% at the weekend to most of the Le pen and half the Bayrou supporters, he appears to have a clear 4-point advantage. The problem is that UK newspapers have, on the whole, a shaky grasp of French political nomenclature.
Political correctness, as always, is partly behind this. That 1 in 5 French voters put their crosses next to Marine Le Pen of the Right-Wing Front Nationale is variously described as ‘shameful’ and ‘a blot on French history’. This is because they suffer from Hainitis, and only see the FN as a racist, anti-Muslim Party.
It is indeed anti-Muslim, but so are a great many of the French – on religious, not racial, grounds. And anyway, Le Pen’s support is mainly that of people disgusted with the corruption, inaction and perfidy of the Establishment in Paris. Quite a lot of left wing French people support Le Pen, and so the victory of Francois Hollande in the first round may well attract at least 35% of her supporters to move to the Socialist leader….largely on the basis of his currently anti-EU/Merkel stance.
But for me, the most intriguing element is what might happen to the 9% of votes cast for the Centre candidate Bayrou. In 2008, Francois Bayrou polled twice that: he took many votes off Segolene Royale, because he seemed both tougher and more radical than her. This time, however, the Socialist vote stayed rock-solid behind Hollande.
So one could argue that most of Bayrou’s support this time came from the Centre-Right. Thus, say, around 7% of the Centre candidate’s votes might go to the UMP candidate Sarkozy. Far more certain is that the hard-Left support for Melanchon in Round One (a passable showing at 12%) will either abstain or go to the current President.
This adds up, on the back-of-envelope system, to around 47-48% for Hollande, and 45-46% for Sarkozy – that is, a comfortable win for the Socialists….but close enough to make Francois Bayrou the potential King-maker.
Were Sarko to promise Bayrou a senior role in government – perhaps even the Premiership – the contest suddenly becomes almost impossible to call. But Bayrou is that rare thing, a principled politician: he thinks Sarko is a prancing idiot, and that Hollande’s spending plans don’t make sense. On balance, he is unlikely to want to soil his hands with either candidate – or indeed, with the mess one of them will have to face.
But you never know. Dirty tricks from abroad may yet materialise. The Morgan-Stanley made FOAT market is up and running and ready to bet against a Socialist President; and Angela Merkel has already flatly refused an audience with Francois Hollande.
Perhaps there’ll be a restoration of the Monarchy, with Christine I at the head of a new dynasty.
and...
http://www.france24.com/en/20120423-sarkozy-hollande-presidential-election-tv-debate
“Everything must be debated,” insisted French President Nicolas Sarkozy shortly after finding out his bid for re-election would hinge on a run-off vote against Socialist Party candidate Francois Hollande.
Sarkozy meant exactly what he said, and immediately challenged Hollande to three televised debates before the May 6 vote, instead of the usual one demanded by French electoral tradition.
The president wanted three separate bouts on the subjects of economy, international affairs and social issues, raising his demands from a week ago when he suggested two debates would suffice.
Sarkozy’s request was derided by Hollande and quickly rebuffed. “He’s like a bad pupil at school who just wants to change the test because he got a bad result,” said the 57-year-old.
With Sarkozy trailing Hollande from the first round vote by 27.18% to 28.63%, and polls suggesting a comfortable victory for the socialist in the second round, many see his request for more air time as a sign of desperation.
Last throw of the dice
Penned in for the evening of May 2, the debate will give Sarkozy around two hours of live TV to argue his case against Hollande, with the eyes of the nation upon him.
“It’s the last throw of the dice for Sarkozy,” Professor Phillippe Marliere, a French politics lecturer at London’s UCL, told FRANCE 24. “He is convinced he is far superior when it comes to debating and he will want to show the French people that he, and not Hollande, has the stature of a head of state.”
Penned in for the evening of May 2, the debate will give Sarkozy around two hours of live TV to argue his case against Hollande, with the eyes of the nation upon him.
“It’s the last throw of the dice for Sarkozy,” Professor Phillippe Marliere, a French politics lecturer at London’s UCL, told FRANCE 24. “He is convinced he is far superior when it comes to debating and he will want to show the French people that he, and not Hollande, has the stature of a head of state.”
Hugues Nancy, director of Presidential Duels, a documentary on the past five French presidential debates, told French daily 20minutes on Monday that Sarkozy’s request was "ridiculous".
“The important thing is not the number of debates but to actually have things to say,” he said. “Sarkozy knew very well that there would not be three debates but he wanted to put himself in the position of challenger."
Sarkozy’s eagerness to face off live on TV will be fuelled by memories of his performance in 2007, when he was widely considered to have trounced his then-rival for the Elysees, Segolene Royal.
That night, Royal could not hide her growing agitation at Sarkozy and slammed his ‘political immorality’. A smiling Sarkozy replied: “One needs to be calm to be president”.
Hollande ‘running scared’
Only weeks ago in a briefing to journalists Sarkozy reportedly said that he would “pulverise” Hollande in the live debate.
On Monday, the president’s campaign team piled the pressure on Hollande, accusing him of running away from the challenge.
“He is afraid to confront Sarkozy, who has strength, skill and experience,” said Francois Cope, secretary general of Sarkozy’s UMP party.
Sarkozy is not the first president, struggling to make up a first round deficit, to demand more than one TV debate before the run-off vote. Valery Giscard d’Estaing wanted two face-offs with Francois Mitterrand in 1981. He did not get his way and went on to lose the election.
The ‘debate about the debate’, as it has been dubbed in France, rages on, with Hollande’s supporters eager to scorn Sarkozy.
“Sarkozy names all the bosses of the TV channels; he is not going to start deciding on what the programmes are,” Bernard Poignant, the socialist Mayor of Quimper sarcastically remarked to journalists.
“The important thing is not the number of debates but to actually have things to say,” he said. “Sarkozy knew very well that there would not be three debates but he wanted to put himself in the position of challenger."
Sarkozy’s eagerness to face off live on TV will be fuelled by memories of his performance in 2007, when he was widely considered to have trounced his then-rival for the Elysees, Segolene Royal.
That night, Royal could not hide her growing agitation at Sarkozy and slammed his ‘political immorality’. A smiling Sarkozy replied: “One needs to be calm to be president”.
Hollande ‘running scared’
Only weeks ago in a briefing to journalists Sarkozy reportedly said that he would “pulverise” Hollande in the live debate.
On Monday, the president’s campaign team piled the pressure on Hollande, accusing him of running away from the challenge.
“He is afraid to confront Sarkozy, who has strength, skill and experience,” said Francois Cope, secretary general of Sarkozy’s UMP party.
Sarkozy is not the first president, struggling to make up a first round deficit, to demand more than one TV debate before the run-off vote. Valery Giscard d’Estaing wanted two face-offs with Francois Mitterrand in 1981. He did not get his way and went on to lose the election.
The ‘debate about the debate’, as it has been dubbed in France, rages on, with Hollande’s supporters eager to scorn Sarkozy.
“Sarkozy names all the bosses of the TV channels; he is not going to start deciding on what the programmes are,” Bernard Poignant, the socialist Mayor of Quimper sarcastically remarked to journalists.
Pierre Moscovici, Hollande’s spokesman, was equally scathing. “There is no reason to make a special case for Mr Sarkozy just because he is the first incumbent president to have lost the first round vote,” he said.
Hollande a seasoned politician
UCL’s Phillippe Marliere believes Sarkozy should not underestimate the debating skills of his rival, who is a seasoned politician, despite having never held a ministerial post in government, a fact Sarkozy supporters are quick to point out.
“Hollande has been in politics for over 30 years. He has led the Socialist Party, which is a difficult thing to do,” said Marliere. “He has done a good job healing the fractions and uniting rivals."
“He is very composed and statesmanlike, unlike Segolene Royal, and that will play well on TV with the French voters,” he added.
The presidential debate dates back to 1974, when Valery Giscard d’Estaing went toe to toe with Francois Mitterrand. Since then they have remained a pivotal moment in the fight for the country’s top job and are watched by millions across France.
Only in 2002, when Jacques Chirac refused to meet the far right’s Jean-Marie Le Pen, a shock second round candidate, did the TV debate not take place.
According to Marliere, it would take something dramatic during the debate for the course of the 2012 election to be altered.
“Hollande would have to make a serious blunder to lose. Going back as far as I can remember, no candidate has ever lost the second round as a result of a disastrous performance in the TV debate,” he said. “A few votes may be lost here and there, but most of the time it does not impact on a voter’s choice.”
Sarkozy might have to think of another way to "pulverise" his opponent before the French return to the polls on May 6.
and.....
Radical left-wing maverick Jean-Luc Melenchon believes he “holds the key” to who becomes the next president of France.
Melenchon polled 11.11% of the first round vote on Sunday, coming in fourth place behind Francois Hollande, Nicolas Sarkozy and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen.
The man, who previously called for a ‘citizen’s revolution’, left those supporters who packed into Paris’ Place Stalingrad for his election night rally in no doubt as to where their priorities now lie.
Targeting Sarkozy
Taking to the stage once the preliminary results had been announced just after 8pm, Melenchon told his boisterous followers to turn their votes against the incumbent French president.
“I call on you to meet again on the 6th of May, without demanding anything in exchange, to beat Sarkozy,” he cried. “I ask you to mobilise yourselves as if it was a case of making me president.”
At first, Melenchon refused to mention the name of Francois Hollande on Sunday but has since given a direct endorsement of the Socialist Party candidate.
Melenchon polled 11.11% of the first round vote on Sunday, coming in fourth place behind Francois Hollande, Nicolas Sarkozy and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen.
The man, who previously called for a ‘citizen’s revolution’, left those supporters who packed into Paris’ Place Stalingrad for his election night rally in no doubt as to where their priorities now lie.
Targeting Sarkozy
Taking to the stage once the preliminary results had been announced just after 8pm, Melenchon told his boisterous followers to turn their votes against the incumbent French president.
“I call on you to meet again on the 6th of May, without demanding anything in exchange, to beat Sarkozy,” he cried. “I ask you to mobilise yourselves as if it was a case of making me president.”
At first, Melenchon refused to mention the name of Francois Hollande on Sunday but has since given a direct endorsement of the Socialist Party candidate.
“We hold the key to the result, I call on you consciously to assume responsibility,” he told supporters.
Melenchon’s team insist no deals will be done with the Socialist Party in exchange for publicly endorsing Hollande.
“The Left Front and the Socialist Party are two different movements,” Jacques Genereux, Melenchon’s economics adviser told FRANCE 24. “We don’t stand alongside them nor do we campaign with them. The one thing we do have in common is the desire to beat Nicolas Sarkozy.”
Despite Melenchon’s claim about holding the key to the presidency, the position of kingmaker for the second round vote appears more likely to be held by Le Pen, considering she polled just over 18% of the vote.
Unlike Le Pen and her supporters, however, it seems certain that the majority of far left voters will be lining up together in an effort to bring down Sarkozy.
Good omens for Hollande
A survey by polling agency BVA published in French daily Le Parisien on Monday suggests 90 per cent of Melenchon’s voters will switch to Hollande for the second round.
The way Le Pen’s voters will turn is less clear: the same poll suggests 57% will go to Sarkozy, and 20% to Hollande.
The omens are good for Hollande. Not since 1981, when socialist Francois Mitterand was elected president, has the left scored such a high percentage (43.87%) of the vote in the first round.
At Place Stalingrad on Sunday, Melenchon’s voters, who chanted “Resistance!” and booed TV images of Le Pen and Sarkozy, agreed that the left needed to unite behind Hollande.
“It’s essential to vote for Hollande now. We just have to get rid of Sarkozy,” Danielle Leroux, an assistant principal of a college told FRANCE 24.
Melenchon’s team insist no deals will be done with the Socialist Party in exchange for publicly endorsing Hollande.
“The Left Front and the Socialist Party are two different movements,” Jacques Genereux, Melenchon’s economics adviser told FRANCE 24. “We don’t stand alongside them nor do we campaign with them. The one thing we do have in common is the desire to beat Nicolas Sarkozy.”
Despite Melenchon’s claim about holding the key to the presidency, the position of kingmaker for the second round vote appears more likely to be held by Le Pen, considering she polled just over 18% of the vote.
Unlike Le Pen and her supporters, however, it seems certain that the majority of far left voters will be lining up together in an effort to bring down Sarkozy.
Good omens for Hollande
A survey by polling agency BVA published in French daily Le Parisien on Monday suggests 90 per cent of Melenchon’s voters will switch to Hollande for the second round.
The way Le Pen’s voters will turn is less clear: the same poll suggests 57% will go to Sarkozy, and 20% to Hollande.
The omens are good for Hollande. Not since 1981, when socialist Francois Mitterand was elected president, has the left scored such a high percentage (43.87%) of the vote in the first round.
At Place Stalingrad on Sunday, Melenchon’s voters, who chanted “Resistance!” and booed TV images of Le Pen and Sarkozy, agreed that the left needed to unite behind Hollande.
“It’s essential to vote for Hollande now. We just have to get rid of Sarkozy,” Danielle Leroux, an assistant principal of a college told FRANCE 24.
But some of those flag-waving Front Gauche supporters milling around Place Stalingrad late on Sunday night suggested Hollande cannot count on the support of every left-leaning voter.
"I will almost certainly tear up my voting slip in the run off vote,” Isabel Nicolas, a teacher, told FRANCE 24. “If I vote for Hollande I might as well vote for Sarkozy because there is no difference between them. They both want to solve the financial crisis through austerity. Since Mitterrand through to Chirac and Sarkozy, nothing has changed; it just appears to have done so. They have all been the same."
Another disappointed Melenchon supporter Sabrina Elzouagha told FRANCE 24: “I will certainly not be voting for Francois Hollande. He is just like Sarkozy. Melenchon said we have to beat Sarkozy but he did not say vote for Hollande.”
Shock at the far right
Melenchon’s army of supporters were despondent on Sunday night not only because Melenchon gained less of the vote than opinion polls had predicted, but also because Marine Le Pen and their arch enemy the far right, had won historically strong support.
Melenchon had sparred with Le Pen in pre-election television appearances, and the battle between the two ‘fronts’ was one of the more compelling sub-plots of the presidential race.
At one stage, polls suggested Melenchon would defy the odds and take third place behind Sarkozy and Hollande, but Le Pen has doused those hopes, to the anger of those on the far left.
Jean-Luc Pillot, a 25-year-old civil servant at Place Stalingrad on Sunday, told France 24: “Tonight we are not proud to be French. It’s really shameful, and we just don’t understand how so many people could vote for [Le Pen]."
"I will almost certainly tear up my voting slip in the run off vote,” Isabel Nicolas, a teacher, told FRANCE 24. “If I vote for Hollande I might as well vote for Sarkozy because there is no difference between them. They both want to solve the financial crisis through austerity. Since Mitterrand through to Chirac and Sarkozy, nothing has changed; it just appears to have done so. They have all been the same."
Another disappointed Melenchon supporter Sabrina Elzouagha told FRANCE 24: “I will certainly not be voting for Francois Hollande. He is just like Sarkozy. Melenchon said we have to beat Sarkozy but he did not say vote for Hollande.”
Shock at the far right
Melenchon’s army of supporters were despondent on Sunday night not only because Melenchon gained less of the vote than opinion polls had predicted, but also because Marine Le Pen and their arch enemy the far right, had won historically strong support.
Melenchon had sparred with Le Pen in pre-election television appearances, and the battle between the two ‘fronts’ was one of the more compelling sub-plots of the presidential race.
At one stage, polls suggested Melenchon would defy the odds and take third place behind Sarkozy and Hollande, but Le Pen has doused those hopes, to the anger of those on the far left.
Jean-Luc Pillot, a 25-year-old civil servant at Place Stalingrad on Sunday, told France 24: “Tonight we are not proud to be French. It’s really shameful, and we just don’t understand how so many people could vote for [Le Pen]."
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