http://www.zerohedge.com/news/it-took-bank-greece-only-three-weeks-revise-it-2012-gdp-forecast-even-lower
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2012 06:26 -0400
http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/1/55143
It Took The Bank Of Greece Only Three Weeks To Revise Its 2012 GDP Forecast Even Lower
If there is anyone shocked by today's announcement by the Bank of Greece that the country is once again slashing its full year economic forecast by 10%, aside from the IMF of course, please raise your hand. As a reminder, the IMF, whose projections were the basis for the recently released second bailout, and which assume a flat GDP in 2013, somehow has visibility through 2020. Which is more than can be said for the Bank of Greece: its latest forecast of 4.5% GDP decline was made three weeks ago. THREE WEEKS. And it already is being revised. In other news, we look forward to updating the deposit flight out of Greek banks when the most recent monthly update is released shortly, confirming that the local economy continues to be, simply said, dead. A few more such comparable downward revisions, and the Third Greek bailout (Of European Banks), which is due any second now, may be jeopardized (as it will be more difficult to sell to Germans why they are once again bailing out French banks).
and....Greece is facing yet another year of sharp recession with GDP expected to contract by as much as 5% in 2012, higher than previously forecast, the Bank of Greece said in a report released today.The central bank said the recession would weigh on the ability of Athens to meet its fiscal targets.The forecast is being revised only three weeks after the central bank's monetary policy report had said the economy would contract by 4.5% this year.Greece has been in recession since 2008, and its GDP contracted by a debilitating 6.9% last year."The recession is expected to be close to 5% in 2012, milder than 2011, but only provided that all structural reforms are implemented," the central bank's report said. It attributed its new projection of a bigger contraction to a slump in consumption and productivity, slower overall business activity and a deterioration in the financial sector.The report underlined that there is no time to waste in implementing the country's economic program, and it urged that after the general election on May 6 the implementation process continue immediately, echoing the fears of Greece's leading European partners that the elections could bring delays.The Bank of Greece conceded that the bigger-than-expected recession in Greece feeds into higher deficits, but argued that it is a mistake to think the strict fiscal discipline is to be blamed."As long as the vicious cycle of fiscal contraction-recession- uncertainty is being fed, our goal to meet our debt and deficit targets becomes difficult," the bank said. "Some blame it on the current fiscal policy, but this is of course a mistake. Fiscal adjustment affects general demand, but it also affects expectations. And positive expectations could emerge if we shrink the public sector and continue implementation despite political developments."And some more bad news: more wage cuts are coming. Yes, soon our Onionesque forecast of negative wages will come true...Apart from reiterating its call for further layoffs in the public sector, the Bank of Greece also said that wages should be cut further in order to boost competitiveness. It added that Greece is still missing structural reforms that could boost productivity, services and the business environment generally.
http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/1/55143
| Press Watch, April 24 | |||||
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The debate over televised electoral debates figured prominently on front pages of the Athens press.
The Pasok camp is accusing New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras of shying away from debates, presumably because the socialists believe that Evangelos Venizelos, with his rhetorical skills, would trounce Samaras.
There were even media volunteers for hosting the debate. Private Mega TV offered to host a one-on-one-debate between Samaras and Venizelos, and Pasok immediately agreed.
Both Pasok and ND are expected today to release their statewide tickets, which are used by party leaders to highlight their political agenda and style by picking candidates who symbolise certain policy priorities.
Public broadcaster Net TV reported today that Samaras will likely place Haralambos Athanasiou, head of the association of judges and prosecutors, on the statewide ticket. The traditionally conservative judiciary has been treated well by ND, which gave judges and prosecutors hefty wage increases when Kostas Karamanlis was premier.
The victory of Francois Hollande in the first round of French presidential elections continued to capture press attention. Many in Greece are pinning their hopes on Hollande – perhaps a bit prematurely – as it is hoped that he can reverse the extreme austerity imposed on the continent by Germany.
“Europe shakes up the markets” declared Kathimerini’s headline. The report referred to both the Hollande victory and the resignation of the prime minister of the Netherlands, who has been an exponent of German-made austerity.
“Venizelos to Samaras: coalition government is a one-way street” read Ta Nea’s headline, quoting Venizelos. The Pasok leader now says, according to the report, that he would accept Samaras as premier if other parties agree.
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“Venizelos throws in the white towel shortly before the elections” declared Eleftheros Typos’ headline, regarding the Pasok leader’s statement that he would accept Samaras as premier, under certain conditions.
The paper also reported that former premier Kostas Karamanlis is expected to call on voters to support New Democracy.
“Mega provocation” read the headline of Avyi, which blasted the private channel’s initiative to host a one-on-one debate between Samaras and Venizelos. The paper saw Mega’s offer as a move to mute the leftwing parties. The report said that the channel’s move undermines the interparty committee that is always entrusted with deciding campaign procedures.
It also noted that the Radical Left Coalition (Syriza) leader Alexis Tsipras will not appear on Mega’s transmissions during the campaign, because the channel had for months locked him out of its programmes.
and.....
| News bites @ 9 | |||||
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1. VENIZELOS INTERVIEW Speaking to Ant1 TV on Monday night, the Pasok leader said that the next government should be one of all pro-European parties, and not necessarily one of his party and New Democracy, even if they have a combined majority of a few seats. Evangelos Venizelos also said that he could contemplate Lucas Papademos continuing as prime minister of such a government.
2. TROIKA EXTENSION The EU/ECB/IMF troika is ready to agree to an extension of the country's fiscal adjustment programme, Venizelos said in the same interview, adding that that the IMF was ready to contribute 8.2bn euros.
3. RECESSION WORSE The head of the Bank of Greece on Tuesday is expected to say thatthe recession this year will be much worse than expected (surpassing 4.5 percent) and unemployment will rise. In addition, central banker Yiorgos Provopoulos is to recommend faster implementation of reforms in order to return the economy to growth by 2013.
4. KARATZAFERIS The troika memorandum has imposed a "dictatorship" on Greece, and Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos is a "habitual liar", the Popular Orthodox Rally (Laos) leader said on Monday. Yiorgos Karatzaferis, however, said that he could contemplate joining a coalition with Pasok and ND if their leaders "repented". One way out of the crisis, he continued, would be for Greece to form an alliance of southern European states that, alongside France, could defeat German chancellor Angela Merkel.
5. SMALL PARTIES GET AIRTIME Six parties or alliances that were not represented in the last parliament and are contesting the May 6 general election will be given some airtime on the state broadcaster, according to a joint ministerial decision signed on Monday. The decision follows an appeal against a decision to limit airtime to parties already with MPs of MEPs. The parties won the concession because they received at least 0.25 or 0.50 percent in the previous national elections or European Parliament elections, respectively.
6. ELECTION NEWS IN BRIEF Pensioners, if they want to stop their pensions being reduced further, need to vote against Pasok and New Democracy, the Radical Left Coalition (Syriza) leader, Alexis Tsipras, said on Monday +++ The Pasok and ND leaders have been passing "bounced cheques" on the public with their promises and are playing with the pain of the citizens, Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis said. "It is too much that the architects of the chaos are threatening more chaos in the event that they are not voted [back into power]," he added.
7. KASTELORIZO GETS FLAME The Hellenic Olympic Committee (HOC) on Monday announced that, following a decision by Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, the southeastern Aegean island of Kastelorizo will be included in the Olympic Torch Relay across the country ahead of the London Olympic Games. The Olympic Flame will arrive on the island on May 11, a day after the formal lighting ceremony in Ancient Olympia and after traveling to the island of Crete. HOC President Spyros Kapralos will be one of the torchbearers. The Olympic Torch Relay will be completed on May 17 with the arrival of the Olympic Flame at Athens’ Kallimarmaro stadium to be handed over to the “London 2012” Olympic Games organizing committee.
8. BATTLE OF THE BONDHOLDERS About 7,000 bondholders are now involved in dozens of class action suits currently before the Council of State, the country's supreme administrative court, contesting government decisions on a haircut of Greek bonds. The number of cases before the court reached 72 on Monday, with as many as 200 plaintiffs represented by each suit, while the nominal value of the bonds in question amount to dozens of billions of euros.
9. SPRING CLEAN Get your brushes out this Sunday, April 29, for a nationwide clean-up campaign called Let’s Do It! This will be the first time that the international tidy-up campaign will be held in Greece. It all began in 2008, when volunteers in Estonia decided to clean up illegal dumpsites, an effort that involved 50,000 people collecting 10,000 tons of trash from the country’s forests. Let’s Do It, Greece! is inviting NGOs, environmental groups, authorities and citizens to participate in this effort to get rid of illegal waste in cities, forests, beaches and villages. Volunteers from all over Greece have signed up to participate, while the solid waste mapping process is almost complete.
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