http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120302-703851.html
-Spain jobless claims hit 4.7 million mark in February
-Worst unemployment reading for the past 15 years
-Youth unemployment climbs, surpassing half a million claims
(Adds new information, background throughout.)
By Jonathan House and Santiago Perez
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
MADRID (Dow Jones)--Spain continued to shed jobs at a rapid pace in February, government data showed Friday, providing new evidence the local economy continued to contract in the first quarter.
According to data released by the country's Labor Ministry, February jobless claims rose by 112,269, or 2.44% from January, likely pushing the country's 23.3% unemployment rate even higher, analysts said. Total jobless claims stood at just over 4.7 million, the worst reading in at least 15 years.
Ricardo Santos, economist at BNP Paribas, said average increases in Spanish jobless claims over the last six months are at their highest since Spain's 2009 recession. "This makes us more negative on the Spanish labor market this year," said Santos, adding he forecasts the unemployment rate will hit 25%.
While the labor ministry doesn't give an unemployment rate, Spanish unemployment stood at 23.3% in January, according to data Thursday from the European Union's Eurostat agency, more than twice the 10.1% average rate for the 27 EU members.
Youth unemployment, which is gradually inching closer to the 50% mark in Spain, is also showing signs of continued stress. More than half a million jobless claim recipients are under 25, the ministry said. On a sector basis, the agriculture sector suffered the sharpest increase in February, followed by the services and construction sectors.
The Spanish economy is still struggling to recover from the 2008 collapse of a labor-intensive construction boom. In recent months, draconian austerity measures and a slowdown in world trade have also weighed, forcing the economy to shrink 0.3% in the fourth quarter from the third, its first contraction since the economy clawed back from recession in early 2010.
In its monthly report, Spain's central bank said earlier this week the local economy likely contracted further in the first two months of the year amid signs of weaker consumer spending and export growth. Spain's economy is expected to contract by 1.5% this year, according to Bank of Spain's estimates.
and....
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/02/2012 08:16 -0500
Spain Forecasts 24.3% Unemployment In 2012, 1.7% GDP Contraction
Nothing good here for our Spanish readers: while speaking at a news conference, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said that Spain's economy will contract by 1.7 percent this year as the government carries out drastic austerity measures. The forecast matched the International Monetary Fund's outlook for Spain's economy this year and was less optimistic than the outlooks from the country's central bank and from the European Commission. Earlier, Spain also defied the European Union, setting a 2012 deficit target at 5.8 percent of gross domestic product, a far softer goal than the 4.4 percent agreed with Brussels. More importantly, the country now anticipates that its unemployment rate will hit 24.3%. Frankly, while horrendous and worse even than in Greece (as it also implies a youth unemployment rate well into the 50%s), this is an overoptimistic number, because as noted before, Spain's unemployment soared from 21.5% to 23.3% in Q4 alone. When all is said and done, look for Spain's 2012 YE unemployment to be well over 25%. So as the economic deterioration across the PIIGS accelerates, at least the banks are "safe."
Spain's historical unemployment:
And other forecast highlights via Bloomberg, citing Spain's De Guindos:
- *SPAIN GROWTH MAY BE NEGATIVE UNTIL THIRD QUARTER INCLUDED
- *SPAIN HOUSEHOLD SPENDING TO DECLINE IN 2012, DE GUINDOS SAYS
- *SPAIN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS 24.3% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN 2012
- *SPAIN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS 24.3% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN 2012
- *SPAIN HOUSEHOLD SPENDING TO CONTRACT 4 PERCENT IN 2012
- *SPAIN 2012 SPENDING LIMIT SET AT EU118.6BLN
- *SPAIN 2012 SPENDING LIMIT DOWN 4.7% FROM 2011
As we said, nothing good.
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