X!.4 Solar Flare + CME Saturday update from prior posts included . Original estimated impact timeframe is Saturday

http://www.businessinsider.com/intense-solar-storm-bombarding-earth-now-2012-7

A strong solar storm is battering the Earth now and could amplify the planet's northern lights displays.

The solar storm is cosmic fallout from a massive solar flare on Thursday (July 12) that included a powerful eruption on the sun, known as a coronal mass ejection. The eruption sent a wave of charged solar plasma toward Earth, which was expected to arrive sometime between 5 a.m. and 9 a.m. EDT (0900 and 1400 GMT), according to forecasts by NASA and the NOAA-run Space Weather Prediction Center.

Space Weather officials said the solar storm could trigger a level G2 geomagnetic storm on Earth, a moderate-level event that could spark auroras at latitudes as low as New York or Idaho, after 9 a.m. EDT. Most northern lights displays, which occur when charged solar particle interact with Earth's upper atmosphere, are confined to high-latitude regions around the polar regions by the planet's magnetic field.

"Weekend auroras are likely," the space weather-tracking website Spaceweather.com wrote in an alert.

This weekend's solar storm originated from one of the most powerful sun flares to occur this year. The flare registered as an X1.4-class sun storm, one of the strongest flares the sun can unleash. It marked the sixth X-class solar flare of 2012.

The solar storm erupted from the giant sunspot AR1520, or Active Region 1520, which is actually a group of sunspots that at its peak may have stretched across186,000 miles (300,000 kilometers) of the sun's surface, NASA scientists have said.

The Space Weather Prediction Center is keeping a close watch on AR1520, as well as several other active spots on the sun, for signs of more activity.

"All eyes are on the solar wind data to note the expected passage on Saturday of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from Thursday's solar event," center officials wrote in an update late Friday (July 13).

The solar storm is not expected to pose a major risk to satellites and spacecraft in orbit, or power systems on Earth, officials have said.

and.....


http://www.spaceweather.com/

STILL WAITING FOR THE CME: The CME launched toward Earth by the July 12th X-flare has not yet arrived. However, we are still within the forecast window set by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab. The cloud should hit at 09:17 UT plus or minus 7 hours on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

SUNDAY MORNING SKY SHOW: Set your alarm for dawn on Sunday morning, July 15th. Venus, Jupiter and the crescent Moon are gathering for a bright three-way conjunction in the eastern sky before sunrise. Must-see! [video] [photos]

HOT COMET: Periodic comet 96P/Maccholz is passing by the sun today deep inside the orbit of Mercury. At closest approach, the icy visitor from the outer solar system will be less than 12 million miles (0.13 AU) from the solar surface.Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory are monitoring the encounter:

and something to keep an eye on.......


http://beforeitsnews.com/story/2388/648/Geomagnetic_Storms_and_Earthquake_Watch_In_Effect.html

Geomagnetic Storms and Earthquake Watch In Effect

Sat Jul 14 2012 09:40

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qIsxM853M0

( video at link... )

A large CME (coronal mass ejection).. earth directed.. will intersect earth within 2-3 days from today (July 12, 2012).. this could cause aurora to be produced further south than normal.. also could cause communications disruption, power grid failure.. possible larger scale earthquakes, and possibly intensify severe weather already forming.

Have a "power outage" plan read for the solar storm just in case.

Also.. be prepared for severe weather, and possible earthquake activity to increase over the next several days (into next week).


*  *  *  
Earthquake uptick / unrest is showing its ugly head again.. with the solar storm on the way.. we need to watch SEVERAL areas globally..... South EU (italy to greece).. UK north through sea of Norway to Greenland (mid atlantic ridge)...

Watch South california.. south through mexico near Oaxaca.. and SW from Oaxaca out to sea near the major undersea divide about 500 miles SW of mexico..

also watch west coast USA... Mono Lake NW through Oregon to the fresh lava fields off the coast of OR.. and this would also include near vancouver island BC..

in the USA .. midwest to south.. watch for fracking quakes / dormant volcanoes / hot spring activity..

in Asia.. watch Japan south to Taiwan.. Kuril islands seem to be showing swarm activity.. which could lead to large movement in the area of Japan.

Oceania (new zealand , vanuatu, indonesia, philippines) watch for a LARGE earthquake .. 7.0M or greater in the next two weeks or less.



http://www.spaceweather.com/

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Geomagnetic storm alerts: text, voice.

The explosion also strobed Earth with a pulse of extreme UV radiation, shown here in an image captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

The UV pulse partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals around the planet. Monitoring stations in Norway and Ireland recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance.

Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks "S1" on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify. Stay tuned.

Major X1.4 Solar Flare + CME Track / Solar Update
7/12/2012 by Kevin VE3EN at 22:05 UTC


Updated 7/12/2012 @ 22:05 UTC
1520 Produces X1.4 Solar Flare and CME
The silence is broken! A major and long duration eruption reaching X1.4 around Sunspot 1520 peaked at 16:52 UTC Thursday afternoon. Type II and IV Sweep Frequency Events were recorded. This event was also responsible for a Strong R3 Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection was produced and appears to be Earth directed.

Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com, the best place for the latest information. You can also follow SolarHam.com on Facebook and by clicking "LIKE".

Radiation Storm: The S1 Minor Radiation Storm threshold has been reached. Earthbound Proton levels continue to increase. Radiation Storming near the S2 Moderate level is now possible.

CME Update: As per the latest CME track from the Goddard Space Center, the fast moving plasma cloud from today will impact our Geomagnetic Field on Saturday with a nearly direct hit. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible and this could lead to very nice Aurora displays at higher latitudes. Please note that with any CME prediction, nothing is for certain. Click HERE to watch the forecast track animation.

Major X1.4 Solar Flare + CME Track / Solar Update
7/12/2012 by Kevin VE3EN at 22:05 UTC

Updated 7/12/2012 @ 22:05 UTC
1520 Produces X1.4 Solar Flare and CME
The silence is broken! A major and long duration eruption reaching X1.4 around Sunspot 1520 peaked at 16:52 UTC Thursday afternoon. Type II and IV Sweep Frequency Events were recorded. This event was also responsible for a Strong R3 Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. A bright Coronal Mass Ejectionwas produced and appears to be Earth directed.

Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com, the best place for the latest information. You can also follow SolarHam.com on Facebook and by clicking "LIKE".

Radiation Storm: The S1 Minor Radiation Storm threshold has been reached. Earthbound Proton levels continue to increase. Radiation Storming near the S2 Moderate level is now possible.

CME Update: As per the latest CME track from the Goddard Space Center, the fast moving plasma cloud from today will impact our Geomagnetic Field on Saturday with a nearly direct hit. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible and this could lead to very nice Aurora displays at higher latitudes. Please note that with any CME prediction, nothing is for certain. Click HERE to watch the forecast track animation.