http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-28/nuclear-free-summer-looms-over-japan-s-west-in-risk-to-growth.html
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The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries will allow rice cultivation on only one condition that all bags of rice (60-kilogram bag) be tested after harvest.
(Ostensible) reason? So that the farmers in Fukushima aren't discouraged from growing rice.
(Don't ask me.)
From Jiji Tsushin (2/28/2012):
Nuclear-Free Summer Looms Over Japan’s West
By Andy Sharp and Toru Fujioka - Feb 28, 2012 10:41 PM ET
Japan’s economic rebound from the deepest contraction among advanced nations after Greeceand Portugal may be stunted this year as power shortages threaten its western region.
The Kansai area, which accounts for about a fifth of Japan’s economy and escaped the worst of electricity cutbacks after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, last week lost its final operating nuclear plant. Power supply may be up to 25 percent less than peak summer demand if plants are not restarted, according to Kansai Electric Power Co.
Shortages drive up costs and force manufacturers to shift work schedules to lower-use periods, disrupting supply chains and adding to reasons to go abroad. The yen’s 47 percent climb against the dollar in the past five years has already hurt competitiveness enough to prompt firms from Nissan Motor Co. (7201) to Kansai-based Panasonic Corp. (6752) to move some operations overseas.
“Higher energy costs come on top of a strong yen and a shrinking domestic market for industries from steelmakers to major manufacturers,” said Martin Schulz, a senior economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo who has done research for the Bank of Japan. “It’s another reason to shift production overseas -- another brick in the wall.”
Only two of 54 reactors in Japan are operating after meltdowns at three of six at Tokyo Electric Power Co. (6503)’s Fukushima plant in last year’s disaster. By late April, a nation that received about 30 percent of its power from atomic stations before the quake may be at least temporarily nuclear-free.
‘High Uncertainty’
Nationwide electricity rationing could cut gross domestic product growth by 1.8 percentage point to 0.1 percent in the fiscal year starting April by capping industrial production, discouraging investment and limiting exports, the Institute of Energy Economics, a government affiliated think-tank estimated in December.
The potential hit to growth would affect an economy just starting to gain momentum after contracting for three of the past four years. The government reported today a larger-than- forecast gain in industrial production in January after retail sales data yesterday also exceeded estimates.
In Osaka, Kansai’s biggest city, electric wire manufacturer Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. (5802) will spend 5 billion yen ($62 million) on generators and other preparations for power shortages and is also budgeting for energy costs to rise, President Masayoshi Matsumoto says. “With 6 to 7 billion yen, we could build a plant in Vietnam and make profit,” Matsumoto said. “Moving production overseas is of course one of the options we are considering.”
Rating at Risk
A diminishing manufacturing base and energy constraints threaten to add to deflation, the world’s biggest public debt burden, and an ageing population in hobbling an economy that’s smaller now in nominal terms than it was in 1995. Gross domestic product shrank 0.9 percent last year, compared with International Monetary Fund estimates in September of declines of 2.2 percent for Portugal and 5 percent for Greece.
Standard & Poor’s said last week that Japan’s AA- debt rating, the fourth-highest ranking, may be cut again if growth prospects worsen in the medium-term, while the Bank of Japan referred to “high uncertainty” over power supplies when easing monetary policy on Feb. 14. Liquefied natural gas imports rose to a record in January and the nation had its biggest monthly trade deficit.
‘Biggest Concern’
“The biggest concern from this electricity shortage is that we are making companies have no choice but to move overseas,” said Shigeru Suehiro, head of statistics at the Institute of Energy Economics, a Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry affiliated think-tank founded in 1966. “It will leave a significant impact on Japan’s economy.”
Panasonic, the world’s largest maker of plasma televisions, said in November it would build a solar cell plant in Malaysia. Nissan, Japan’s second-biggest carmaker, shifted output of its March compact from Japan to Thailand in March 2010, citing the yen’s strength.
Last year, officials imposed 15 percent reductions for heavy power users in the wrecked northeast region of Tohoku and in the Kanto area where Tokyo sits. In the rest of the country, reductions were voluntary.
At the industry ministry, Noriyuki Mita, a policy planning division director, said that while officials want to avoid mandatory electricity limits, that depends on decisions about nuclear power. A group of four cabinet ministers, led by Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, will decide if or when reactors closed for servicing can restart after last year’s disaster raised safety concerns.
Stress Tests
All 11 of Kansai Electric’s reactors are now out of service. While two may be ready to restart in April, Noda said Feb. 10 that even if reactors pass stress tests and are technically ready, the government won’t give approvals to power companies unless local authorities agree.
Around the country, only three of 29 local governments housing plants will accept restarts, with 24 authorities undecided and two against, the Sankei newspaper reported Feb. 4. In Kansai, officials have signaled opposition.
“Last year we took measures such as moving days off to conserve power by the 10 percent we were requested,” said Shinki Kawanami, a spokesman for Maruichi Steel Tube Ltd. (5463), a pipe and tube manufacturer based in Osaka that supplies Mitsubishi Corp. (8058) “This summer will be much tougher,” he said, adding that the company has looked at shifting production to plants in other places.
Extreme Option
Electronic equipment maker Daihen Corp. (6622), also based in Osaka, and a supplier to Kansai Electric, sees shifting production elsewhere as “an extreme option,” according to environmental section chief Koji Moriyama. “We hope that, once safety is taken into account, nuclear plants will be restarted quickly,” he said.
Industry Minister Yukio Edano told BS Asahi television on Feb. 24 that it’s “necessary” to restart nuclear reactors to avoid power shortages, provided that it can be done safely and with the agreement of local residents.
In the west, some people express skepticism that any action will come quickly enough.
“I think people are underestimating the impact of this electricity shortfall,” said Masataka Nakagawa, head of the economy and industry department at the Osaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Telling manufacturers to save power again this summer is “like asking someone who’s already skin-and-bones to go on a diet.”
and....
Tour of 'fragile' Fukushima nuclear plant shows shocking state of disrepair
Posted: 02/28/2012 01:05:48 PM PST
Updated: 02/28/2012 01:05:49 PM PST
OKUMA, Japan -- Japan's tsunami-hit Fukushima power plant remains fragile nearly a year after it suffered multiple meltdowns, its chief said Tuesday, with makeshift equipment -- some mended with tape -- keeping crucial systems running.
An independent report, meanwhile, revealed that the government downplayed the full danger in the days after the March 11 disaster and secretly considered evacuating Tokyo.
Journalists given a tour of the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant on Tuesday, including a reporter from the Associated Press, saw crumpled trucks and equipment still lying on the ground. A power pylon that collapsed in the tsunami, cutting electricity to the plant's vital cooling system and setting off the crisis, remained a mangled mess.
Officials said the worst is over but the plant remains vulnerable.
"I have to admit that it's still rather fragile," said plant chief Takeshi Takahashi, who took the job in December after his predecessor resigned due to health reasons. "Even though the plant has achieved what we call 'cold shutdown conditions,' it still causes problems that must be improved."
The government announced in December that three melted reactors at the plant had basically stabilized and that radiation releases had dropped. It still will take decades to fully decommission the plant, and it must be kept stable until then.
The operators have installed multiple backup power supplies, a cooling system, and equipment
to process massive amounts of contaminated water that leaked from the damaged reactors.
But the equipment that serves as the lifeline of the cooling system is shockingly feeble-looking. Plastic hoses cracked by freezing temperatures have been mended with tape. A set of three pumps sits on the back of a pickup truck.
Along with the pumps, the plant now has 1,000 tanks to store more than 160,000 tons of contaminated water.
Radiation levels in the Unit 1 reactor have fallen, allowing workers to repair some damage to the reactor building. But the Unit 3 reactor, whose roof was blown off by a hydrogen explosion, resembles an ashtray filled with a heap of cigarette butts.
A dosimeter recorded the highest radiation reading outside Unit 3 during Tuesday's tour -- 1.5 millisievert per hour. That is a major improvement from last year, when up to 10 sieverts per hour were registered near Units 1 and 2.
Exposure to more than 1,000 millisievert, or 1 sievert, can cause radiation sickness including nausea and an elevated risk of cancer.
Officials say radiation hot spots remain inside the plant and minimizing exposure to them is a challenge. Employees usually work for about 2-3 hours at a time, but in some areas, including highly contaminated Unit 3, they can stay only a few minutes.
Since the March 11 crisis, no one has died from radiation exposure.
Tuesday's tour, organized by plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co., or TEPCO, came as an independent group released a report saying the government withheld information about the full danger of the disaster from its own people and from the United States.
The report by the private Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation delivers a scathing view of how leaders played down the risks of the reactor meltdowns while holding secret discussions of a worst-case scenario in which massive radiation releases would require the evacuation of a much wider region, including Tokyo. The discussions were reported last month by the AP.
The report, compiled from interviews with more than 300 people, paints a picture of confusion during the days immediately after the accident. It says U.S.-Japan relations were put at risk because of U.S. frustration and skepticism over the scattered information provided by Japan.
The misunderstandings were gradually cleared up after a bilateral committee was set up on March 22 and began regular meetings, according to the report.
It credits then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan for ordering TEPCO not to withdraw its staff from the plant and to keep fighting to bring it under control.
TEPCO's president at the time, Masataka Shimizu, called Kan on March 15 and said he wanted to abandon the plant and have all 600 TEPCO staff flee, the report said. That would have allowed the situation to spiral out of control, resulting in a much larger release of radiation.
A group of about 50 workers was eventually able to bring the plant under control.
TEPCO, which declined to take part in the investigation, has denied it planned to abandon Fukushima Dai-ichi. The report notes the denial, but says Kan and other officials had the clear understanding that TEPCO had asked to leave.
But the report criticizes Kan for attempting to micromanage the disaster and for not releasing critical information on radiation leaks, thereby creating widespread distrust of the government.
Kan's office did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the report.
Kan acknowledged in a recent interview with AP that the release of information was sometimes slow and at times wrong. He blamed a lack of reliable data at the time and denied the government hid such information from the public.
The report also concludes that government oversight of nuclear plant safety had been inadequate, ignoring the risk of tsunami and the need for plant design renovations, and instead clinging to a "myth of safety."
"The idea of upgrading a plant was taboo," said Koichi Kitazawa, a scholar who heads the commission that prepared the report. "We were just lucky that Japan was able to avoid the worst-case scenario. But there is no guarantee this kind of luck will prevail next time."
and...
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120227004796.htm
Photos from jet show devastated N-plant
In this photo taken Sunday from an aircraft near the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture, severe damage from explosions following the Great East Japan Earthquake is seen.
About 1,000 tanks have been installed on the grounds of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant to store an increasing amount of radiation-contaminated water.
FUKUSHIMA--The heavily damaged upper framework of the buildings housing the Nos. 3 and 4 reactors at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant were photographed from a Yomiuri Shimbun jet Sunday, one day after the easing of restrictions on the area's no-fly zone.
Also photographed were rows of about 1,000 tanks used to store increasing amounts of radiation-contaminated water that were installed on the plant grounds after the disaster.
The aircraft Mirai carried us north from Tokyo and came as close as six kilometers from the plant in Fukushima Prefecture.
The Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry reduced the area of the no-fly zone around the plant from a radius of 20 kilometers to three kilometers on Saturday.
The upper part of the buildings housing the Nos. 3 and 4 reactors appeared skeletal due to the explosions that occurred in the buildings in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11.
As we approached the plant, the buildings' miserable appearance became apparent.
The plant grounds were entirely covered with snow, and the lid of the No. 4 reactor's containment vessel was clearly seen through the building's exposed framework.
Once the aircraft turned to view the No. 2 reactor building from the coast, a big opening in the wall was visible despite the fact that the building had not exploded. The opening was created after a pressure-release panel fell down due to some shocks.
Walls of some other structures located on the sea coast were also blown away.
West of the No. 4 reactor building are blue and gray tanks standing in orderly rows.
The tanks were installed to contain an increasing amount of water with low levels of radioactive substances. About 1,000 tanks contain an estimated 120,000 tons of contaminated water.
No people were spotted in neighboring towns. Alleys in local residential areas were covered with snow. A dosimeter installed in the Mirai aircraft detected radiation measuring as high as 0.9 microsieverts per hour northwest of the plant.
About 40 years of challenging work will be needed to decommission and dismantle the Nos. 1 to 4 reactors.
The sight of the plant from the air has seared into our memory the cruel accident, which destroyed the livelihoods of more than 110,000 local residents.
and...
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2012/02/ministry-of-agriculture-to-allow-rice.html
Ministry of Agriculture to Allow Rice to Be Grown in Almost All Areas in Fukushima This Year, Just Like Last Year
except for a few districts where rice with high level of radioactive cesium exceeding 500 becquerels/kg was found in last year's testing.
Well why not? The government didn't stop farmers in Fukushima from planting rice last year, right after three explosions (possibly 4, counting Reactor 2's Suppression Chamber) at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant released 650,000 terabecquerels (iodine equivalent) of radioactive materials. They apparently told some reluctant farmers if they didn't grow rice they wouldn't be compensated. So the farmers in Fukushima tilled the land, mixed up the contaminated soil and poured water in the rice paddies and grew rice. If they could do it last year, surely they can do it this year, and next year, and year after next year.Farmers in the areas where rice with radioactive cesium between 100 becquerels/kg and 500 becquerels/kg was found last year will be allowed to grow rice this year, even though the new safety limit for radioactive cesium in food will be 100 becquerels/kg starting April 1, 2012.
Well why not? The government didn't stop farmers in Fukushima from planting rice last year, right after three explosions (possibly 4, counting Reactor 2's Suppression Chamber) at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant released 650,000 terabecquerels (iodine equivalent) of radioactive materials. They apparently told some reluctant farmers if they didn't grow rice they wouldn't be compensated. So the farmers in Fukushima tilled the land, mixed up the contaminated soil and poured water in the rice paddies and grew rice. If they could do it last year, surely they can do it this year, and next year, and year after next year.Farmers in the areas where rice with radioactive cesium between 100 becquerels/kg and 500 becquerels/kg was found last year will be allowed to grow rice this year, even though the new safety limit for radioactive cesium in food will be 100 becquerels/kg starting April 1, 2012.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries will allow rice cultivation on only one condition that all bags of rice (60-kilogram bag) be tested after harvest.
(Ostensible) reason? So that the farmers in Fukushima aren't discouraged from growing rice.
(Don't ask me.)
From Jiji Tsushin (2/28/2012):
全袋調査でコメ作付け可能=福島、100ベクレル超でも-農水省
Farmers can grow rice in Fukushima, even in the areas that had rice with radioactive cesium exceeding 100 Bq/kg, as long as all bags of rice are tested, says Ministry of Agriculture
農林水産省は28日、福島県産米から国の暫定規制値(1キロ当たり500ベクレル)を超える放射性セシウムが相次いで検出された問題を受け、2012年産米の作付けに関する方針を発表した。焦点となっていた100ベクレル超500ベクレル以下のセシウムが検出された地域は、収穫後の全袋調査など一定の条件を満たせば作付けを認めることにした。
In response to a series of detection last year of radioactive cesium exceeding the national provisional safety limit (500 becquerels/kg) in rice grown in Fukushima Prefecture, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced the policy on the 2012 rice on February 28. The areas where radioactive cesium exceeding 100 becquerels/kg but below 500 becquerels/kg was found last year will be allowed to grow rice as long as certain conditions are met, including testing of all bags of rice after harvesting.
対象となる地域の11年生産量は約3万トンで、福島県のコメ生産全体のほぼ1割に当たる。The total amount of rice produced in these areas in 2011 was about 30,000 tonnes, or 10 percent of the total amount of rice produced in Fukushima Prefecture.
鹿野道彦農水相は記者団に対し「食の安全を確保することを最優先とした」と述べ、消費者の不安の払拭(ふっしょく)を重視する姿勢を強調。その上で、福島県の農家のコメづくりに対する強い意欲も考慮して方針を決めたと説明した。
Agriculture Minister Michihiko Kano spoke to the press, "Securing the safety of food is our first priority", emphasizing the need to dispel consumers' anxiety. He explained that in establishing the policy further consideration was given to the strong desire of the farmers in Fukushima to grow rice.We'll see if testing all bags of rice is even possible, given the lack of testing equipment even with the last year's sampling test. It doesn't look like they even pretend to "decontaminate" rice paddies in the high radiation middle third of Fukushima ("Nakadori").
Let's speculate on the real reasons for the decision by the Ministry of Agriculture:
They'd rather gamble, and if cesium is below the 100 Bq/kg limit the government will not have to do anything. They want to give business to the companies that make radiation testing devices and equipment (like Fuji Electric who made the radiation monitoring device at a school in Minami Soma City).After all, this was the Ministry whose officials thought waving the Nal scintillation survey meter over cows would measure the radiation of the meat accurately enough. They didn't know that rice hay was fed to the cows as part of the diet right before the cows were to be sold. We cannot, and shouldn't expect much sharp thinking from this (or any other) ministry.
Caveat emptor, but I sense that most Japanese are either just too weary or not caring any more at this point. Relentless drive by the Kan administration and then by the current Noda administration to spread radioactive vegetables, fruits, meat, fish, leaf compost, mushrooms and logs to grow mushrooms on, firewood, disaster debris, etc. so that Tohoku (Fukushima, Miyagi, Iwate) "can recover" is taking its toll.
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