Hopefully , we can discuss , in a tasteful manner - world events , geopolitical affairs , economic concerns...
First up , an item I posted elsewhere , but I thought this might be a good jumping off point.
So , what is the real situation in Greece - is there a way out of are they just fubared ? Let's review a few items . first consider this item ... Note the comment from Nov 2011 and Greece's need for 80 billion euro by the end of Feb 2012
1) Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos told lawmakers Thursday that the country needs EUR80 billion to cover its financing demands by the time it is due to receive the seventh tranche of its first rescue package in February.
“The seventh tranche must be disbursed by the end of February. This payment is not at EUR8 billion (as the sixth tranche is) but at EUR80 billion, because these will be the cash needs of the country,” he said.
2) http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0105/greece-business.html now consider this piece from last week....
Greece's entire schedule of emergency loans from the EU and IMF is being pushed back by three months because of a delay in the pay-out of a tranche in 2011, the European Commission says.
The next €5 billion tranche for Greece that was originally scheduled to be paid in December 2011 is now to be paid out in March 2012, Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly said.
A further €10 billion that Greece was originally to receive in March this year will now be paid only in June. He said all of those sums can also be delayed if inspectors think Greece is failing to deliver promised fiscal reforms.
"That cannot be changed," Bailly said, referring to the three-month rhythm in paying out tranches of the first Greek rescue programme.
Last year, Athens repeatedly said it faced the risk of defaulting if the EU and IMF did not pay out scheduled tranches. Europe's political leaders have made it clear that as long as Greece meets criteria on reforms, it will be financed as necessary by the EU and IMF, but investors with money in Greek bonds are watching its cashflow closely.
The pay-outs are part of the aid that Athens has been promised under a €110 billion joint EU/IMF financing programme in 2010 in exchange for fiscal austerity and structural reforms that are to make public finances of the highly indebted country sustainable. Out of the total, €73 billion have already been paid, and €37 billion remain.
The next tranche of aid under the first aid package was due at the end of January, but has been postponed into March because of the ongoing talks about the second aid package of which the PSI is a key component. On March 20, Greece has a 14.4 bln bond maturing and needs the aid to cover the redemption.
To sum up , Greece has a 14.4 euro bond redemption on March 20th but FM Venizelos said back in November the real number Greece need is 80 billion euros. Meanwhile , 5 billion euros due in January tranche for Greece has been pushed to March , while 10 billion euros tranche aid due in March has been pushed to June , if then. So , where does the 14.4 billion come to handle the March redemptions , let alone pay government expenses , salaries , pensions ? And if the mid - January troika meeting don't go well , tranche payments for March and June , could be pushed back further - hints of this happening already being floated. Can the private sector debt swap get completed , will enough holders of greek debt participate and does Vega sue , will the debt swap - if completed , reduce Greece's debt sufficiently anyway - who knows ? Basically what we know is that we shall have a clearer picture for Greece on or before March 20th ! But it doesn't look like Greece has a happy ending in sight ....
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