Thursday, May 4, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views .......May 4 , 2017.....Quick Hits For Thursday -1) Markets : Asia - Economic Calendar for Friday , Japan Closed Friday For Holidays , Market Moving Data & News As Pertinent ; US Stocks Indexes Basically Unchanged Ahead Of Friday's Employment Report , Gold and US Crude Clobbered Today , US Ten Year Treasury Yield Ticks Back Up Again. 2) US Political Round Up For Thursday : Executive Actions Taken To Date ; House Passes AHCA , But Tough Sledding Lies Ahead In Senate ; House Leaders ( Dem & GOP ) Issue Joint Statement On Status Of Russia Issues Investigation ; Senate Passes Funding Bill , Next Stop Is Desk Of POTUS - Will Cover Balance Of Fiscal Year ; House Passes New Sanctions On North Korea Targeting Shipping And Use Of Slave Labor ; POTUS To Visit Vatican , Israel & Saudi Arabia On His First Trip Abroad. 3) Europe News Round Up For Key Items In Focus Today : Greece - Creditor Talks Update - Euro Working Group: Next Loan Tranche to Greece Once Prerequisites are Completed, No Debt Relief Yet ( Germany's Finance Minister Schauble Goes Further And Says No Debt Relief Being Prepped For Greece ) ; France Election Updates For Thursday ; EZ & Various EZ Countries PMI Data Sets ; Additional Items Of Note. 4) Odds & Ends - Venezuela Protests , Syria Peace Talk Developments - Interesting Threads To Consider Touching On Syria Broadly / Al Qaeda Influence , Bitcoin On A Tear Lately Even As Gold Falls In Price , Turkey Purge Really Allegedly set To Ramp Up , All Eyes On Chinese Commodities Crush Tonight , Libya & Additional Items Of Note.



Markets....




Asia.....






Economic data due from Asia today - RBA Statement Day



Support crumbling ?






Check out market in . futures still trading over 6% lower, coking coal 4% down; over 3% lower.







It's kicking off again in China.... commodities on Chinese exchanges Friday:
Iron Ore -8% Rubber -4.9% Copper -1.1%






raised 's fixing by 73bp or 0.11% to 6.8884 per USD, vs prev 6.8957






refrained from today, 60bn yuan reverse repo matures today.







Hong Kong Nikkei PMI Apr: 51.1 (prev 49.9)






RBA's quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) is due today - preview



Not all Asian markets are open today - Japan on holiday




1 hour ago
Dalian iron ore starting the day off with another 5.7% drop







US....




Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: EURUSD breaks out. Approaches 1.1000


US major stock indices end the day little changed

US crude oil futures settle at $45.52/BBL



Cold breeze from China putting pressure on commodities. Apart from the commodities crush ongoing-bond yields 》








Black gold bloodbath underway...








Non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers for the April 2017 employment report



OPEC supply cut likely to be extended into second half of 2017 - delegates



OPEC, NON-OPEC OIL PRODUCERS UNLIKELY TO INCREASE SIZE OF CUT FROM 1.8 MLN BPD - THREE OPEC DELEGATES: RTRS







US Politics....




A handy list of all Executive Actions to date...









House Leaders joint statement concerning House investigation into Russian hacking/ interference re: 2016 election.










ACHA passes by narrow 217 to 213 vote. Next stop is the US Senate.









Senate writing its own HC Bill...







“There is no timeline" for voting on GOP ObamaCare repeal in the Senate







Largest doctors' group condemns passage of GOP healthcare bill






At present and without material revisions , passage in the Senate appears problematic -at best.








Senate passes funding bill for Gov't , will cover balance of fiscal year. Next stop -desk of POTUS.






BREAKING: House overwhelmingly backs new sanctions on North Korea, targeting its shipping industry and use of slave labor.





Trump travel in May: Israel, Vatican, Saudi Arabia, NATO summit in Brussels (May 25) and G7 summit in Sicily (May 26).






: Trump will visit Israel, the Vatican and Saudi Arabia on his first foreign trip as president






Europe......




Greece....






Euro Working Group: Next Loan Tranche to Greece Once Prerequisites are Completed, No Debt Relief Yet




Not surprisingly-Germany shoots down notion debt relief is in the works for Greece.Just "talks" & "understandings."





1/4 Eu official: The EWG met today to take stock of state of play of the 2nd review of the ESM stability programme for Greece.




2/4 The EWG welcomed the preliminary agreement reached btw institutions&Greek authorities on a policy package basis 4 concluding2nd review





3/4 of the ESM stability programme. Following the implementation of the prior actions by Greece





4/4 EG cld endorse policy package&terms of disbursement&address sustainability of Greek debt in near future,on basis of May 2016 agreement











Court rules against extradition of remaining Turkish soldiers







France.....









1 hour ago
The inner circles of French presidential election candidates Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron







VIDEO - Emmanuel Macron confronted by union activists in Albi while Le Pen dodges eggs in Brittany








| MACRON WOULD BEAT LE PEN 61% (+1 PT) VS 39%: IFOP DAILY POLL







What happens now: French presidential election race enters crunch time







French voters will elect a new president on May 7, but what will Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen be able to do if they win the election?







French presidential frontrunner Macron filed a 'defamation' complaint against Le Pen







French prosecutors open probe after Le Pen's 'Bahamas bank account' slur against Macron







PREDICTION: Chances of becoming next President of France Macron: 80% Le Pen: 20%





Debate doesn't appear to have broken the narrow range since Latter part of April. Macron still with 59-61% , Le Pen at 41-39%.






10y risk spread over Germany drops to lowest since Nov2016 as Macron has survived TV debate.






UK-EU...

(Venom & Venomous going To Be Words Of The Week - But Who Actually Are The Vipers , One Might Ask ? )




Guardian front page, Friday 5 May 2017: Show respect in Brexit talks, Tusk tells May







A selection of charts from our scholars' work to guide you through :







Tomorrow's front page: May told to show some respect when dealing with Europe and to think about the millions of lives affected by Brexit







British-EU relations hit new low after venomous attack by Theresa May






Tell that to Juncker, Merkel and Verhofstadt - the leaks and subsequent disparaging tweets and comments by them were highly unprofessional.






Not a surprise. .





Europe PMI Data....





Eurozone Markit Services PMI Apr F: 56.4 (est 56.2; prev 56.2) -Markit Composite PMI Apr F: 56.8 (est 56.7; prev 56.7)







Germany Markit/BME Services PMI Apr F: 55.4 (est 54.7; prev 54.7) -Markit/BME Composite PMI Apr F: 56.7 (est 56.3; prev 56.3)






France Markit Services PMI Apr F: 56.7 (est 57.7; prev 57.7) -Markit Composite PMI Apr F: 56.6 (est 57.4; prev 57.4)






Italy Markit/ADACI Services PMI Apr: 56.2 (est 53.6; prev 52.9) -Markit/ADACI Composite PMI Apr: 56.8 (est 54.6; prev 54.2)






Spain Markit Services PMI Apr: 57.8 (est 57.7; prev 57.4) -Markit Composite PMI Apr: 57.3 (est 57.0; prev 56.8)




Spain Unemployment (MoM) Apr: -129.3K (est -78.8K; prev -48.6K)





Irish Investec Services PMI Apr: 61.1 (prev 59.1) -Investec Composite PMI Apr: 58.7 (prev 56.9)






Odds & Ends.....






Venezuela descends further into deadly unrest as students rally, attorney general quits







Do not miss what's happening in . 35 dead now in protests. President trying to rewrite constitution. A country near collapse.






Unrest continues to take a deadly toll , Maduro dancing somewhere..








Student leader killed in latest Venezuela protests: prosecutors







Scenes like this make you wonder how much longer Maduro can hang onto power ?









Rut Roh....







Update on Home Capital Group and concerns for other Alternative Lenders and the Canadian Housing Market.









Celery freeze comes as quite the surprise...









Bitcoin has been soaring ( above 1600 ) , even as gold has been pushed down about 50 bucks since Friday.






Keep your eyes on Bitfinex....








Interesting thread from Jenan , underlines how Al Qaeda rules the roost in Idlib w/ an iron hand.Thread of 8 tweets.







sources on the de-escalation agreement signed in





Replying to 
2-Checkpoints to ensurefree movement of unarmed civilians. SAA and armed Opp will carry out their tasks at checkpoints and monitoring posts






Replying to 
3-Take all necessary measures to continue fight against ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra and other terrorist groups and organizations in tensions areas





Replying to 
4-Groups affiliated to Nusra & ISIS & terrorist groups listed by UN including armed opp so far not participated in this settlement Included





Replying to 
5-Russia, Iran & Turkey are guarantors to ensure cessation of hostilities regime is respected. They will be referred to as the "guarantors”.





Replying to 
6-Preparation of the necessary maps of the “areas of tension and de-escalation areas” will be complete by May 22.





"Allegedly" filmed by Al Jazeera. New CW attack has not occurred. All that is needed is the after filming incident.





Replying to 
The Syrian dynamic is far from being over. Many details still unsolved & some players r not yet convinced 2end d war






Replying to 
is a key player for 2 reasons: - against plan to give autonomy to - enjoys significant influence over rebels & Jihadists





Replying to 
Problem of persists since the group is excluded from d de-escalation zones. Also excluded those unwilling to detach themeselves from





Replying to 
Even if "de-escalation zones" may not work in the same days,weeks,months, it is settling a starting base agreed by (important player)





Replying to 
Areas of de-escalation, will permit those wanting 2take a distance from & 2have safe place where humanitarian access is available.






Wrong: welcomes & agreed on the de-escalation zones established in (Ghouta, Idlib, Latakia &Homs).







Turkey appears set to really ramp up its ongoing purge. Almost 215,000 people could fall victim in next rounds !






futures in continue to plunge in night hour, down 6% following 8% drop in day trading






Boris Johnson declares support for direct negotiations between State Council and House of Representatives.








   2 minutes ago



























President Sisi coming to Abu Dhabi to seal the deal between Haftar and Serraj ?









Gunmen force 's Mayor to resign at gunpoint after storming a meeting he was holding w/ 's Mayor