Saturday, February 25, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views......February 25 , 2017...... Quick hits for Saturday 1) Markets : Overview Of Global Stocks & Bonds Performance For Week Ending February 24th - Another Week Of Big Gains ; Doug Noland's Weekly Commentary ; Additional Data Touching On Stocks & Bonds. 2) Europe In Focus : Greece - Fitch Keeps Greece Rating At CCC After Examining Various Factors , Additional News Of Note ; France - Presidential Election News & Polling Data ; UK News for Saturday To Consider. 3) US Politics - Round Up Of News Of Note Touching On US Political Scene. 4) Odds & Ends - Libya , Iraq & Syria In Primary Focus , Additional Items Added As Relevant.



Markets.......




Global bonds jumped $421bn in value this wk to $45.8trn, highest since Trump election, in kind of bond conundrum given that econ data was OK





Global stocks gained $402bn in mkt cap this wk, equals to GDP of Norway, as reflation trade continues. Global value of >$70tn shy of record.








Credit Bubble Bulletin: Weekly Commentary: Risk On/Risk Off Face-off Doug Noland's insightful Weekly Commentary.













Ratio of U.S. Stocks to Commodities hits another all-time high.






2017 Returns... Large Caps: +5.9% Mid Caps: +4.8% Small Caps: +2.8% Micro Caps: -0.4%





The Great Divergence in bond yields between 2 countries (US & Germany) with similar GDP/Inflation stats...





Global yields falling this week... US: 2.31% UK: 1.08% Germany: 0.19% Japan: 0.07%






Europe......






Fitch has revised upwards its real GDP growth forecasts to 2.5% and 3% in 2017 and 2018, from 1.8% and 2.2% respectively.






Fitch estimates that recorded a primary surplus of 2.5% of GDP in 2016, which should make the 2017 target of 1.75% easier to achieve






However, the 2018 target of 3.5% in 2018 remains challenging, Fitch says on .









Bank of Greece: Deal, or momentum is lost






Athens expects increased tensions with Ankara to last until 2019 Turkish elections.




Maybe it’s a good thing that we have a crisis in the talks now and not later, writes




France......






France opens full inquiry into candidate Fillon giving wife, children fake jobs






French prosecutors open criminal case into Fillon's 'fake jobs' scandal






Whoa, deja vu: FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FILLON'S LAWYERS REITERATE THEIR CRITICISM OF LEGAL PROBE, SAY LEAKS WERE UNACCEPTABLE






As Flassbeck warned: there's a need in Europe to stand up to Germany, fear is that it will be Le Pen who will do it.






Marine Le Pen is winning over some of the female voters who feel left behind in France






EUROPEAN UNION: German foreign ministry official says Le Pen victory in French presidential election would be a 'death blow' to the EU






VIDEO - France Presidential Race: what is Emmanuel Macron economic program?








Macron’s economic platform echoes Hollande’s, French economist says








France: Shift of votes from the 1st to the 2nd round of Presidential election if (EM-NI) runs against (FN-ENF).







France: (EM-NI) reaches record high of 24% in first round opinion polling after 's (MoDem-ALDE) endorsement (Ifop poll)








UK.....






1 hour ago
He's "deeply concerned that Labour is further from power than at any stage in my lifetime."







The Maastricht treaty promised European economic convergence. It hasn't happened








PA: The Remain campaign outspent Leave by a margin of more than £5 million in last year's EU referendum







Good morning! The Tories by-election boost in Copeland is a humiliation for Labour - my overnight take



US Politics.....





I will not be attending the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner this year. Please wish everyone well and have a great evening!






Congratulations to Thomas Perez, who has just been named Chairman of the DNC. I could not be happier for him, or for the Republican Party!







Great optimism for future of U.S. business, AND JOBS, with the DOW having an 11th straight record close. Big tax & regulation cuts coming!





The media has not reported that the National Debt in my first month went down by $12 billion vs a $200 billion increase in Obama first mo.





FAKE NEWS media knowingly doesn't tell the truth. A great danger to our country. The failing has become a joke. Likewise . Sad!








Very , very interesting reading and not just the Saudi angle.







Trump administration cancels back-channel talks with North Korea, writes.








: WH rejects Homeland Security report that travel ban countries don't pose special threat: report






Democrat Party Chair race to be decided today...







BREAKING: Former Labor Secretary Tom Perez has been elected chair of the Democratic National Committee.





Final ballot results for : Perez 235 Ellison 200






Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison becomes Deputy Chair of the Democratic National Committee after a motion for Tom Perez and a vote from the DNC.








A bit of a surprise. Tom Perez almost won on first ballot - literally fell short by one vote.








Brazile says she's abstaining so there should be a total of 441 votes if every member (and proxy) casts a ballot.







Ballots getting passed out now at the DNC meeting in Atlanta.







No magic number in DNC Chair race because need majority of CAST ballots. Will depend who shows up, who's out sick, who's in the bathroom...





All seven candidates for stay in the race for the first two ballots. On each subsequent ballot, last place gets kicked off.






DNC folks say they expect about 45 minutes between each ballot and announcing its result. (They need to count and verify proxy ballots.)







Chris Sununu asked the White House for evidence of widespread voter fraud that President Trump claims took place during the 2016 election.








Ex-VP Cheney introduced Pence in Vegas at annual Republican Jewish Coalition mtg. Cheney joked no one in room can name all past VPs.






TRUMP SATURDAY and SUNDAY: --no public events today --attends the Governors' Ball at the White House the first lady is hosting.







Trump to meet with top health insurance execs Monday







Dem senator goes on tweetstorm over leaked ObamaCare repeal plan







Said it in 2009 & again today: Inappropriate for any White House to decide which news outlets are acceptable.







Fox's Bret Baier rips White House after outlets barred from briefing








Pence said US still "assessing” whether to move US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, per .






Judge won't dismiss Bergdahl case over Trump comments








GOP lawmaker: Sessions should recuse himself from any Russia probes







GOP grapples with how to handle town halls







"I will leave the Democrats if Keith Ellison is elected its chairman"







Former press secretary to George W. Bush defends WH decision to exclude outlets from briefing








Mike Pence, once again, condemns the attacks at Jewish sites this week: "Hatred and anti-Semitism have no place in America."



















As usual, White House publishes transcript of Sean Spicer briefing, even though it was an untelevised gaggle today.






H. R. McMaster, told NSC staff at “all hands” meeting , label “radical Islamic terrorism” was not helpful b/c terrorists are “un-Islamic.”







Most Americans continue to oppose U.S. border wall, doubt Mexico would pay for it



German discussion on response to US protectionism...







Mexico plans response to border tax by US...








Defense Secretary Mattis has been everything Trump skeptics hoped for




Bloomberg cancels White House Correspondents Association dinner after-party




Democrats are in denial on immigration




Democratic hopefuls already thinking about 2020 - With the Clinton’s presumably out of the race in 2020, the fi...


BREAKING: Homeland Security intelligence report disputes threat posed by citizens of 7 nations in Trump travel ban.











And the raw numbers








Full text: Executive Order on Enforcing the Regulatory Reform Agenda









Odds & Ends.....




Libya....





Venezuela, Libya again lose UN vote rights over dues debts - Hawaii News Now






Tobruk's airport has not received specific and clear instructions to ban anyone from traveling abroad without security clearance.






up until two days ago, female travelers were able to leave the country from Labraq's airport without a male guardian.






until now the Military governor and Thini's government have failed to produce clear mechanism on how to implement ban.






In 30 seconds I explained why the EU-Libya deal on migrations is a bad idea









Presidency Council announces ceasefire deal among warring Tripoli militias -





Iraq.....






Oil Ministry said another oil well fire put out in Qayara Only 3 still burning Set on fire by retreating IS






An interesting turn of events with the Saudi FM visiting baghdad for the first time in decades. Friendly talks between both countries







Developing story - cause of death linked to IED...









: Prominent Rudaw war reporter and journalist Shifa Gardi has been killed in as she covered clashes.









Mosul Update : 25/2/2017 04:00 PM Green : Liberated Red : Clash Zone Black : ISIL Control






Very curious.....









Curious.....







 


Reference to this tweet finally got a good video that shows the parachutes that dropped over a Tal Afar. Video in the next tweet.









1 hour ago
Map shows the latests gains made by west of Tal Afar today, forces are only 7 KM away.






: Situation in as -i forces advance into Sth suburbs







Joint Operations officially announce that 9th Div regained full control of Yarmouk power station that supplies west .







A picture taken from east for the ongoing operations in west of Mosul and Al-Jawseq neighborhood neat the airport.






Syria.....







U.S. military aid and armored vehicles have been sent to SDF in northern Syria, according to reports.















 


1 hour ago
NEW MAP: is rapidly gaining ground in east and is about to block + proxies. Only 10 km distance to forward lines.









/ Khalid ibn al-Walid is advancing in Western and has captured Jallin and Kfar Thamer towns from









1 hour ago
Failed / offensive in city and taking over more terrain from . The latter seems in big trouble in southern





China.....






China urges the UK to stop interfering in affairs, says FM, after the UK govt released the Report to Parliament on Hong Kong






There are 192 P2P Lending Platforms in China went under this year out of 1,894 operating platforms.







China is developing its own digital currency








Trump called China the 'grand champion' of currency manipulation — and China struck back






North Korea....







North Korea warned to cooperate with investigation into killing of Kim Jong Nam with nerve agent






North Korea evades sanctions with network of overseas companies: U.N. report







"North Korea has sent a very clear message to the world that it will strike its enemies anywhere in the world"









North Korea accuses China of "dancing to the tune of the US" over its decision to ban coal imports









Malaysia's considering Expelling North Korea's envoy Shutting its embassy in NK Declaring Ambassador "persona non grata" murder