Wednesday, October 19, 2016

MENA Watch ....... October 19-20 , 2016...... Items Of focus 1) Libya Items : Internal Political Developments ; International Politics De Jour ; State Of Play - Battlefields.2) Turkey In Focus : "As Erdogan Turns " So Turns Turkey ; Purge Updates ; EU-Turkey Deal Updates ; Additional Items Of Note. 3) Iraq - Mosul Operation Updates In Primary focus , Turkey Trying To Elbow Its Way Into The Operation - Despite Iraq Opposition. 4) Syria Updates - Primary focus International Political Items & Aleppo. 5) Saudi Arabia - Bond Sale Primary focus , Yemen , Additional News Of Note



Libya.....




10/20.....







State Council issues directive to employees to avoid its HQ for their own safety.










's neighboring countries say they reject any form of foreign intervention.







requests 's help in combating illegal migration and terrorism









- form joint security ops room in . Will monitor migration, terror activity & borders w/ drones







64 Bunyan Marsous fighters wounded in clashes against transported to for treatment.







Leader of Benghazi Defense Brigades ( designated terrorist org by PC & MoD Bargathi) attended PC officers meeting yesterday.








PC member al-Majbri issues a statement asking Serraj, PC members to clarify position on BDB leader attending yesterday's meeting.






Divisions, statements & counter-statements following yesterday's meeting of officers & militias leaders loyal to PC in .







1 billion UK-printed dinars arriving Tripoli to ease currency shortage but also stoke fears of inflation.








Banknotes crisis continues Tripoli






Sarraj's PC release a statement after "deleting" the words "Hiftar is a war criminal" Shame we have a video of the Official statement.






10/19





Whoa !!!!









| Commander at El-Marsa Brigade warn that latest BAM statement re GNC may cause division among anti-ISIS fighters in Sirte










Army officers held large meetng in Tripoli in presence of PC & StateCouncil members. Serraj called for the unification of the armed forces










On the issue of Salvation govt's return, Sarraj said he was "dealing with the incident wisely to avoid bloodshed" and vowed to take action








The closing statement of the meeting referred to Khalifa Haftar as "war criminal"








: only place on earth where so called military 'officers' & 'politicians' guarded by militias gather to declare war on national army!








To re-establish stability, peace and security in the country need just and well functioning institutions as well as strong governance








A number of truck mounted machine guns (technicals) can be seen in the streets of today near Fellah & Airport road.








Salem Gneidi: Nothing of this wd have happened if the GNA had come to Tripoli in the right manner. But it was dead from the first day








Salem Gneidi: The conflict is now over the Presidency HQs because whoever seizes it considers himself the winner









Salem Gneidi: Serraj should resign and we should go back to the fourth draft of the Political Agreement








Salem Gneidi: Mr. Serraj formed the Presidential Guard from militias & gunmen and he did not train them but only give them a mandate






Oil production restarts at Sirte Basin's biggest joint venture








UN envoy paints bleak picture of Libya. Says Libyans must accept Libya Political Agreement (constitution).








Hmm - W.B so grim despite oil production increasing for first time in years & possibility of Libya - Libya solution.









...and demanded that Thinni revoke his recent decision to withdraw al-Fakhri's ministerial functions & relegate him back to deputy minister








Participants demanded that Major-General Mohamed al-Madani al-Fakhri be confirmed as Interior Minister by the HoR








Another disaster for 's judiciary. An administrative tribunal rules against Libyan Political Agreement & PC - declaring them illegal.









Misrata Coalition in conflict , even as Abdullah al-Thinni has met with Khalifa al-Ghwell, to discuss creating a unified Libya Govt.











Al- Thinni is correct on his assessment.....










Libya - Libya solution coming into view ?










Abdallah al-Thinni says he met w/ Khalifa Ghwell 3 months ago to follow up on t Libyan-Libyan dialogue led by Agila Saleh & Nuri Busahmain










Al-Thinni: PC failed in implementing the LPA, especially w/ regards to militias. In Tripoli they only control the coastal road & Martyr's Sq







Peter Millet: Central Bank to receive 1 Billion Dinar's in UK printed bank notes soon.







Court in Al Baida east Libya deems the UN appointed presidential council illegal








Turkey.....




10/20.....




Turkey detains 40 soldiers in coup probe: media







Turkey kills 'up to 200' US-backed Kurdish rebels in Syria






Turkey staged deadly strikes on Syrian Kurdish militants near Aleppo: state media







10/19......





Spoke to a senior Syrian Kurdish official in Afrin confirms heavy shelling by Turkey on Kurdish towns & villages. Death & injuries reported
















Turkey's state-run news agency headline says OIC recognized Gulen movement as a terror group. Body says different thing.









1-Turkeys jihadis attacked SDF 2-SDF retaliated 3-SDF liberated several villages from IS 4-TR is bombing SDF 5-Russia is NOT bombing jihadis









Turkey apparently believes it is not just in the EU , but running it...








seeks referendum in April for presidential system.








Evoking Ottoman past, Erdogan vows to tackle Turkey's enemies abroad









Turkey gives EU to the end of the year to grant visa free travel to Turkey -or else EU -Turkey Deal dies.









Turkey A.F is participating in Mosul Campaign. Erdogan statement that Turkey would be involved proven correct.









: "We'll be both on the ground and at the negotiating table. We'll take part in just like we do in now."










Erdogan says he talked to Putin, who promised him that Russia will cease bombardment of Aleppo.






After multiple reports of the terrible treatment of Turkish prisoners (beatings, rape, silencing etc) this is a human rights travesty.









Iraq.......




10/20.....



IS leaders 'abandon' Mosul as Iraq forces close in






Donald Trump: Iraq launched the Mosul campaign to help Hillary Clinton







Intense efforts underway at 3 priority sites to provide shelter and firs-line emergency assistance to displaced people.








10/19....









Mosul's severe food shortage and financial hardship under ISIS via









ISIL orders the Mosulis to turn in their phone cards after full Asiacell network activation throughout Mosul









More than 900 Mosul residents flee to Syria following ISIS threats






ops expected 2last several month before defeating . Nevertheless, intel consider there is a possibility of internal rebellion.








However, like in every battle, when feels d battle is lost, many fighters leave the city (happen before in & ). Few remain






All forces r expected 2participate2 ops but only the Army and federal Police along with anti terrorism sq are allowed inside the city







FYI: ops is still far from Mosul city. Distance of Kurds & Iraqi security forces varies between 18 to 40 km from city center.








There are estimate 5000 (more or less) militants in and around it. They will fight for certain. No "9000 escaping" expected.






Official /i count of battle in the last few days: 96 killed and 27 suicide destroyed (suicide vehicle w/ driver)















: : No one can keep us away from the Mosul operation.








: militants have made several trenches to maintain control of Abbasiyah, south east of Mosul.








Syria......




10/20.....






Spoxe to YPG Spox in Afrin today who denied Turkey's killing of 200 YPG fighters. He said Turkey is upset after rcent SDF gains against ISIS








7 minutes ago: France’s President Francois Hollande warns Mosul's ISIS group fighters could flee to al-Raqqa, Syria






BREAKING: Car bomb attack reported at rebel held border town of Azaz in N. -






UK backs draft on Syria/Russia - “options, including further restrictive measures”






It’s time get real on Syria and embrace a confederal model, argues







10/19....





Glad to see finally get stated by de Mistura...former al Nusra holding other rebels (+ civilians) hostage.








: planes bomb Jaish Al-Thuwar (Revolutionary Forces') positions near Um-Hosh village in eastern , Northwest

















Well , hope the rebels don't forget to duck. More airstrikes will be coming , in due course and time.








'We trust Russia in everything it does' - Syrian parliamentary speaker








Safe exit plan suggested for E.











620 rebels and their families leaving today from Oaddamiyah toward while others are expected to leave tomorrow +








Aleppo residents say there have been no airstrikes since dawn on Tuesday







Russia to regard Belgian strikes in Aleppo as support for Nusra if no criticism follows









: the rebels regained full control on 1070 Apartments project (about 1/4 was controlled by loyalists)









Saudi Arabia.....







STARTS NOW: ceasefire (3 days) begins as & intl powers seek to end 18 month Saudi led war.








| energy minister Novak wed: will discuss w/al-Falih coordination of possible actions on global market this weekend. RTRS









| al-Falih wed: more clarity needed on . now refers to "freeze" & "slight reduction". reuters.









energy minister says today "gentle action of opec, a freeze or small decline" in output enough to stabilise market









Dash for yield continues.....








LAUNCH: SAUDI ARABIA $6.5B 30YR AT T+210 LAUNCH: SAUDI ARABIA $5.5B 5YR AT T+135 AUNCH: SAUDI ARABIA $5.5B 10YR AT T+165: BBG








Yup , KSA seemed have lots of dust in the pockets of their robes , prior to the big bond sale today.








Saudi Arabia is repaying debts to contractors after long delays, sources say











Saudi Arabia executes a prince who fatally shot someone, a rare death sentence for someone in the royal family






Oops: The IMF sees Saudi Arabia's break-even oil price falling less than expected.









NewCartoon: & redeploy their proxy to . .