Saturday, October 29, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views.....October 29 , 2016......Quick hits For Saturday - 1) Market Wrap : Bond Market Rout Bloodies Stocks ; Federal Reserve December Rate Hike Odds Fall Notably - Aftershock From Renewed Clinton Email-gate Probe ; Oil Rocked On Friday - Iran & Iraq Refuse To Freeze Output , OPEC Yet To Agree On Details For Output Reduction Plan , Friday Meeting Stretches Into Saturday. 2) Around The Horn For Europe : Greece In Focus - Creditor Talks ( Second Review - State Of Play ) , TV Auction Controversy Update , Economic Developments Update , President Obama Visit Update ; Europe Financial Headlines - Rating Actions , NIRP , Draghi ; Deutsche Bank Travails - Demand Europe Provide 150 BL To Bail Out Banks ( Again ) , Deutsch Bank " Fall Of The House Of Usher " Detailed ; Spain Political Updates - PSOE & United Left In focus . 3) US Election Shocker - FBI Re-Opens Email-Gate Probe. 4) Libya In Focus : Domestic Politcs ; International Politics & Meddlers Updates ; Security Or Lack Thereof In Libya.


Credit Bubble Bulletin: Weekly Commentary: Peak Monetary Stimulus Alway interesting & useful !

Good morning from Cologne. Global stocks have lost $271bn in mkt cap this week as bloodiest bond rout in 3yrs dent risk sentiment.

December Fed Rate-Hike odds slide below 70% on FBI Clinton probe. 2y yields drop in tandem.

Despite current bond rout: Why Low Is the New Normal for Neutral Interest Rates.

’s Bond Rout Unlocks €580bn of Debt for Buying.

- CDS spread at >70bps widest since 2012 as Spain has consistently outperformed Italy in past yrs and on a different pol picture

Too Big to Fail: struggles w/ weak growth & pol instability, EU left w/ little choice but to bail country out

Bond investors suffer worst rout in 3yrs as selloff deepens.

US stocks reverse early gains and finish lower
- Dow: -8.53pts (-0.05%) - S&P500: -6.63pts (-0.31%) - Nasdaq: -26.09pts (0.5%)

| OPEC Splits Are Obstacle to Deal With Other Producers in Vienna - Bloomberg -

| No Output Commitment Reached Betweeen OPEC, Non-OPEC - Statement -

| no specific agreement reached today in Vienna. OPEC & non-OPEC producers say consultaions to continue in November. reuters.

| Novak saturday: allows for possibility of meeting with in Doha (at the "gas exporting countries forum") on Nov 17. IFX

| draft federal budget assumes Russia's crude production to increase by 0.7% in 2017 & 0.9% in 2018. reuters.

| energy officials tell in Vienna Moscow still willing to "freeze" its output levels if OPEC agrees to output cap. RTRS.

OPEC say some progress made, but not agreement. Meeting to continue on Sat. with another meeting on Nov. 25

| "high-level committee" meeting in Vienna now over for the day. via .

WTI crude futures settle at $48.70, a fall of $1.02 (-2.05%)


OPEC Have Yet To Agree On The Details For Output Reduction Plan, Iran Said To Oppose - RTRS Sources

...still meet 2morrow..hopes for 30 Nov meet>> officials fail to agree on how to curb oil supplies

Around The Horn - Europe.....


: We will only know at the conclusion of the 2nd review what the right amount for the next disbursement to will be

Vice President Biden Implies President Obama Will Talk of Debt During Visit to Greece

Only one offer submitted for new Iraklio airport project

Gov't changes tactics on TV auction after court rejection


(second review - state of play) 3rd item in Nov 7 agenda.

Ratings Actions , NIRP , ECB In Focus.....

How absurd: DBRS confirms at AAA, stable trend (The only one of the big 4 agencies w/ AAA) despite Debt to GDP ratio near 100%.

S&P Affirms UK Ratings At 'AA/A-1+'; Outlook Remains Negative On Brexit Uncertainties

Despite current bond rout: Why Low Is the New Normal for Neutral Interest Rates.

More Bad News from for Mario Daghi: German Inflation Picks Up to 2-Year High as Debates Stimulus.

Deutsche Bank .....

Mr Folkerts-Landau said "Europe is seriously ill" and demanded the EU look at bending new rules to avoid disaster."

The Deutsche Bank Downfall: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Spain Political Updates....

Mr. Rajoy 170-111 in favor, w/ 68 abstentions, in the second round, requiring a simple majority.

Pablo Iglesias says Rajoy's policy for government can be summed up with "I am not going to change anything".

United Left leader Garzón tweets "Well, that was predictable", Rajoy has just "raised the price" PSOE is paying.

Rajoy is not negotiating or seducing the PSOE MPs who are about to let him govern, but rather laying down the law for his new government.

Rajoy says his red lines are: - Catalonia and national unity; - EU commitments; - Budget stability;

Rajoy wants "a government that can govern, not a government that will be governed [by parliament]".

Rajoy wants "a government that can govern, not a government that will be governed [by parliament]".

Up to 13 PSOE MPs set to defy the party whip this evening, continuing to vote 'no' to Rajoy instead of abstaining.

United Left leader Alberto Garzón says today's protest is about "voting NO to reappointment of Rajoy" and "more democracy in the streets".

FULL STORY: Pedro Sánchez Resigns As MP, Says Rajoy Not Worthy Of Respect Or Free From Corruption Suspicions

Pedro Sánchez said reign of PSOE administrators ends today with Rajoy vote and party must now start to listen to grassroots members again.

LATEST: Ousted PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez steps down as an MP, says he's off on a road trip around Spain "to listen".

FBI  Re-Opens Email-gate Investigation 11 Days Before Election Day

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here ?'

'That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,' said the Cat.

'I don't much care where -' said Alice.

'Then it doesn't matter which way you go,' said the Cat.

'- so long as I get SOMEWHERE,' Alice added as an explanation.

'Oh, you're sure to do that,' said the Cat, 'if you only walk long enough.”

― Lewis CarrollAlice in Wonderland

“My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go anywhere you 

must run twice as fast as that.” 

― Lewis CarrollAlice in Wonderland

“Alice:How long is forever? White Rabbit:Sometimes, just one second.”
― Lewis CarrollAlice in Wonderland

( Much More On Email-gate At Timeline ) -  Starting From Friday Initial Shock & Updated As Relevant

2016: When leading Democrats say the doing its job = being on the side of a foreign dictator who hates America.

Friday -Fair to say Election 2016 has now gone past the Twilight Zone , with today's shocker.

As Samuel Jackson famously said in Jurassic Park (when doing full systems reboot) " Hold On To Your Butts."

MORE: FBI reopening Clinton email investigation after learning of the "existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation"

Comey exact wording: Investigation was "completed" but FBI will take "investigative steps" to "review" emails "that appear to be pertinent."

Interesting -latest emails found on another device. Emails not held by someone investigated in Clinton email case ??

Going to get even more interesting. ..

Whoa !!!!

This is rich. is demanding full disclosure, transparency, immediacy and honesty.

Statement from in response to Comey letter to GOP chairmen

Kellyanne Conway on MSNBC: "I agree with John Podesta and the Clinton campaign" on FBI releasing more info on new emails.

Source tells me FBI has 4 electronic devices, one belonging to ., at least one other belonging to .

Getting messier by the moment.

Clinton laughed when asked if new FBI review could sink her presidential campaign, reports.

At this point there is nobody to blame for the campaign-eating monster that is than Hillary. She made this happen. In every way.

Missed our live stream of the “Clinton Scandal Update – Emails & The Clinton Foundation” Panel? Watch here ->

Carl Bernstein ( Watergate fame ) money shot - " We don't know what this means yet except that it's a real bombshell 1

Carlos Danger strikes again.....

So , who leaked FBI Director Comey's memo to Fox News tonight ?

Polling numbers are about to get very interesting....

Kaine smart enough to understand if this re-opened / restarted investigation is open and unresolved on November 8th , could be big trouble.

Comey's disclosure shocks former prosecutors | Getty

Election bettors have already shifted their predictions in reaction to James Comey's Clinton announcement

NY Post Blast - FBI agents investigating Anthony Weiner for sexting a minor have done job that wasn't done in investigation of HRC.

Agents reportedly found thousands of State Department-related emails ostensibly containing classified information. 1

on the electronic devices belonging to Weiner and his wife and top Clinton aide Huma Abedin.2

BANG -- " Another close Clinton aide told the FBI that “Abedin may have kept emails that Clinton did not.” 3

Abedin’s role begs for fresh scrutiny. Making false statements to the FBI is a felony. So is mishandling classified info.4

2016: When leading Democrats say the doing its job = being on the side of a foreign dictator who hates America.

Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll Oct. 24-27, 2016, random national sample of 1,148 likely voters w/ an error margin of +/- 3


And the concern was Trump wouldn't accept Election results ? Looks Like HRC setting up a challenge.


Fighting continues second day west of Tripoli. Tanks deployed

Clashes renewed in the city of . Random shootings in residential areas. Residents trapped.

Breaking: Parliament (HoR) forms an interim Central Bank steering committee to replace the current CBL board whose term has expired

New CBL steering committee headed by Mohamed Al-Shukri (former deputy governor in Tripoli). Deputies: Mohamed Busnaina and Ali Hibri.

Majbari & Maitieg got included in US/UK's upcoming London meetings. Even GNA PM Sarraj didn't know! What to expect w/ 9 presidents...

Now that NOC chief Sanallah helped oust Majbari's Jadran, Sanallah will definitely block anything at meetings attended by Majbari.

UN-appointed Fathi Majbari, of course, remains widely unpopular for his support for Oil Crescent hijacker Ibrahim Jadran.

Majbari (1 of 5 Deputy PM's appointed by UN to a Presidential Council with 9 men) has been blocking NOC chief Sanallah at every turn.

Another reason US/UK's London meetings will fail: Widely acclaimed NOC hero Sanallah's ongoing problem with UN GNA Deputy PM Majbari

The U.S. and UK's London talks about 's oil and money seem to have failed before they even start....

economy and ending political stalemate on the table at ministerial meetings in London and Washington

's 8th Force takes over security for the city's '400' power plant.

Herald on bodies with signs of torture found in yesterday. All sides operating with impunity and nobody able to control it.

Police patrol finds 10 bodies at a garbage dump in .

French FM Jean-Marc Aareault says FM's from the Mediterranean met in Marsielle to discuss crisis.

US Official: Meeting in DC next week to end Libya political stalemate after Kerry attends London ministerial meeting

Abdulrahman Sweihli removes Nouri Abusahmain and others from State Council membership.

last night people protest in Tajoura & ask 4 dissolution Militia in Tripoli after increase number of kidnappings and assassinations

Security Room said in 15 days 6 killed in carjackers 19 kidnapped 4 killed 2 female 29 armed robberies 85 gun crimes

Breaking: family's caught in the crossfire of fighting militias calling for help to get out of the danger zone 40km west

Report: Footage of current fighting Zawiya west of Tripoli (unverified)

Tension rose in the area of Fashloum after a member from Radaa (Deterrence) Force was killed by a resident in Fashloum

During 2016, the UAE has established an air base in eastern Libya (not far from Heftar's HQ) IHS Jane's reports

Janes (UK defence analyst) has updated story on UAE Libya airbase, adds pic of what it says are combat planes

Zway: The next few days will bring surprises. There is a convergence of views btwn Misrata & Tobruk and it will be a purely Libyan dialogue

Senussi al-Zway: We expect a large group of HoR members to attend the [Misrata] meeting