Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views...... September 20 , 2016..... Quick Hits For Tuesday - 1. Markets & Market Moving News : Ahead of BOJ & FOMC Policy Meetings , Stocks Cautious In US , Europe & Asia ; Deutsche Bank Remains Roiled - Fresh All-Time Low For Its ADR & More News Of Note ; Energy Related & Commodity Items De Jour ; Interest Rate Items Of Note. 2. Around The Horn In Europe - Germany , Banking Sector Under Stress Again , Brexit Nuggets , France , Spain , Greece. 3. MENA Updates - Libya & Syria In Focus.


TED spread at a 7-year high heading into the Fed meeting. Yellen is watching, September hike unlikely.

Russia's central bank cuts rates by 50 bps to 10%, down from 17% in Dec '14.

Kuroda better not disappoint

Fed 2 day meeting commences..

First glance...

The Deutsche Bank ADR dates back to Dec '96. Total Return over that period: -63% New all-time low today.

Doom loop alive & well: 's 5y default probability jumps following Deutsche Bank's as Germany's biggest lender too big too fail.

Deutsche Bank shares keep falling on capital risk from settlements. 5y default probability jumps to almost 19%.

Riskiest Deutsche Bank bonds fall to Feb lows on US probe.

This is getting interesting. Impossible for investors to ignore.


Crude oil draw -7.497MMbbl, Last +1.438MM Gasoline draw -2.5MM, Last -2.39MM Distillate: +1.4MM, Last 5.3MM Cushing: +407K, Last -1.122MM

Colonial Pipeline will resume shipments on the 1.3 million-barrel-a-day Line 1 Wednesday, one day ahead of schedule

Latest: Nymex RBOB Oct-Nov has plunged today to 3.62 cents from a peak Friday of 8.60


2016 Commodity Returns. Bloomberg Commodity Index (Total Return) is up 7.5%, would be first positive yr since 2010.


Greek PM asks for ageeement on debt "now, not tomorrow", before next year's elections in major European countries

Jan-Aug primary budget surplus at €3.756bn (2.1%/GDP) vs €980ml target due to huge cuts on the spending side

Spain’s Banco Popular to Cut Up to 3,000 Jobs, Close Branches

Foreign state 'aims hack attack' against top German politicians.

Continuing investigation leads to 8 more arrests - Nice , France terror attack.

Redirection for 100 Alex !

Perhaps definitions should be: 1. "Soft Brexit"=EEA/single market 2. "Rubber Brexit"=Agree FTA/MRAs on exit 3. "Hard Brexit"=WTO Option

Deutsche Bank troubles spreading across banking sector...

Monte Paschi stress sends 2020 subordinated bond yield at 18.9 - highest since January

| Deutsche Asset Mgmt clients withdrew €20b in 1H: Handelsblatt.

German Producer prices turn negative again. Fall 0.1% MoM and by 1.6% YoY vs 0% and -1.5% expected.

MENA Highlights.....

( Much more at Twitter T.L)


Tripoli power cuts: No improvement w/UN's GNA. GECOL suffers from militias, lack of money for salaries &parts

Medical Source: Bunyan Marsous Field Commander Idris al-Hadi al-Aaeb killed in clashes with in .

Defense Minister Le Drian: not figthing in . Neither directly, indirectly, in secret or in public.

Source: Western region military officials meeting in to discuss developments in oil crescent & ports

Cent. Hospital: 560 killed, 2650+ wounded from Bunyan Marsous forces since start of Op vs .

Brigadier General Idris Younis , three senior officers and his son Ahmed Idris, are also said to have been killed as were the three crew.

Bin Jawad source: Ibrahim Jadhran suffered broken foot and other minor wounds during oil crescent clashes.


Getting ugly...


Russian officer couldn't get US to understand it was bombing Syrian soldiers, so he hung up and tried again.

After a deadly aerial bombing of humanitarian supply trucks in Syria, officials suspended aid convoys on Tuesday

So it begins - UN backs off describing attack on Aid Convoy as "air strikes" , admits it doesn't know what happened.

1. State Department has designated Jund al Aqsa in Syria as a terror org - "openly aligned" w/ Nusra Front:

2. We've done extensive reporting on Jund al Aqsa -- has been staffed with veterans. AQ front group:

Russia denies its planes or Syrian jets hit the humanitarian convoy. Fwiw.

. calls "for an immediate, impartial & " into attack on UN/SARC Convoy in Syria

US military reacts to fragile Syria cease-fire, airstrike hitting Assad's forces

Shari'ah Council release fatwa legitimizing Ahrar al-Sham's cooperation with Turkey in fight against IS