Saturday, June 18, 2016

Economic News & Views ...... June 18 , 2016...... Quicks Hits for Saturday 1. UK Referendum News & Views - The Ipsos MORI Poll For The Evening Standard Has Leave In Front By 6% , Different Perspectives On Leave , IMF Assessment States Recession Not Inevitable If Brexit Occurs , Additional Information To Consider . 2.Top News From Elsewhere In Europe -Terror Arrests This Morning In Belgium , ECB Item On Unemployment Wores Of Southern Europe , Greece Firing Independent Appeals Board For Doing Its Job. 3.MENA Updates - Iraq , Syria & Libya In Focus. )


Different perspectives and POVs....

YouGov poll just out - Leave +2

YouGov/Sunday Times (): REMAIN 44 (+5) LEAVE 43 (-3) 16th-17th June

UK: Anti-European regions located mostly in England, less in Wales or Scotland (YouGov poll).


Important caveat....80% of interviews BEFORE Thursday's tragedy.

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-) Leave: 44% (+2) (via Opinium, online / 14 - 17 Jun)

Ahead of tonight’s polls the latest table. Only members of the British Polling Council now included .

UK EU referendum poll (BMG): Remain 53.3%, Leave 46.7%

BMG’s online poll shows Leave 51%, Remain 41%; sample size 1,468 respondents aged +18

Final BMG/Herald poll, phone, UK: Remain 53%, Leave 47% (also online R45%, L55%, but BMG says phone more accurate)

I am skeptical about the BMG phone poll sample - see here

First poll post murder of Jo Cox shows almost nobody will change how they vote as a result of the incident

With the latest BMG, Survation and Mori polls our averages stand at: Remain: 42.9% Leave: 47.6%

If the French can keep insulting and intervening like this, all Brexiteers will be grateful

POV regarding Wages & immigration ....

John Mauldin: could make the Y2K bug look puny. Would trigger devolution of Europe.

Jo Cox murder suspect says in court his name is 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain':

Wise advice from Matthew Parris to the pundits who have attempted to exploit Jo Cox's murder

EUC & some member states want to bury a report fr EU agency that is likely to say Turkey is unfit for asylum seekers

EU referendum: Poll reveals 10-point swing towards Brexit as campaigns enter final stages

An intelligent , level headed explanation for Leave - from Robert Hiscox...

Brussels is hell-bent on creating a United States of Europe US governing Europe through unelected Commissioners.

THIS. The referendum is ONLY on leaving the EU not the EEA Cameron knows this, has spun like crazy to avoid

Britain need not suffer a recession if it leaves EU, IMF says in its assessment of the risks around referendum.

What has changed his mind? It is his anxiety about a growing EU role in defence, leading to a European Army.

Mr Brok, told : “Everything that is written about immigration is a lie."

IMF warning to be lost in the weekend flurry of activity...

Haven't losses in global stocks been offset , to some degree , by gains in safe sovereign debt ?

Brexit risk , ECB /Fed/BOJ policies , China risk - lots of factors for why US ten year yield is falling...

Good to see Campaign discourse become more civilised, less nasty, less hyperbolic, more reasoned, more respectful 😉

Around European Horn ....

's latest every-2-weeks mantra "we failed to realize the damage austerity would do to "

No arms or explosives were found during the searches .....

Attacks may have been planned for today's Euro 2016 Belgium v Ireland game, police say

EZ at risk of lost generation, ECB warns as Southern unemployment 4times higher thanNorthern

Looks like the Board is being fired for doing its job...

Around MENA Horn......


Field Report: Syrian Army resumes offensive amid ...

Rebel US diplomats won’t be heard on Syria, ex-ambassador says

BREAKING: Pentagon confirms Russia has bombed US-backed rebels in Syria

The number of Syrians killed by different illnesses outnumbers those killed by bombardment


Spending next 72 hours in to discuss ongoing plans to liberate from terrorists and (critically) stabilization after ISIL.

IA now filming IS retreat from Fallujah in 4K with Inspire Pro.

Iraqi Army kills prominent commander in Al-Hit

Iraq says most of Falluja retaken from ISIS.


List of problems for UN-backed Tripoli government to solve.

plunges deeper into turmoil as opposition forces go to war in Benghazi

New battle looms

Photos reportedly showing 's power lines in - electricity problems in result of sabotage?

When established, Defense Brigades pledged to follow the orders/directives of 's Grand Mufti (Dar al-Ifta).

GNA's MoD Mahdi al-Bargathi said in a previous statement that Benghazi's Defense Brigades wld be designated "terrorist group".

In Ras Lanuf Barghathi calls for Libyan military factions to unite against IS -

CBL says it has received LYD 250M of new banknotes printed in Britain. Says money will be distributed throughout .

Southern seems to be suffering the most because of the electricity problems, but power out in the South means no water for the North.


Power cuts continue in . 17.5hours in , 24 hours in , other cities have lost count.

Battles are continuing against IS forces in Sirte. Tobruk parliament forces battling militias Benghazi.

Libya electricity problems

Tripoli water problems

Col. Mahdi Bargathi trying to build his own coalition &convince key actors in of his position, but there is a counter movement.

Haftar remains strong in Barqa, he seems to be playing the tribal politics card effectively in his favor, so far.