Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( September 22 , 2015 ) - Refugee Crisis Updates ( Understand that the current refugee crisis goes hand & hand with Libyan and Syrian security instabilities , items of note on Europe coping mechanisms ) ........ Market movers ( Glencore / Volkswagon , Miners , Coal ) ...... Greece Updates ( Post Snap Election items of note , Greece economic data ) ...... Europe "Officialdom " Items ( ECB in focus , EU 28 backs down on mandatory quotas to address refugee crisis - voluntary quotas the way forward ) ....... Additional Country Specific Items from Europe ( Ukraine , Spain , Germany , Hungary , UK , France ) ...... Asia Updates ( China in broad focus , Japan items of note , Vietnam a bright spot in Asia , Emerging Markets set for even more turmoil )

Evening Wrap ( with much more at the tweet feed )

Asia ........

Caixin flash China manufacturing PMI signals contraction for seventh consecutive month during September

Ongoing industrial slowdown in underlines need for further stimulus

Impact of China slowdown bigger than expected: IMF chief

": Xi Jinping of China to address wary U.S. business leaders. "

Refugee situation....


A fresh trainload of up to 1500 refugees has just arrived at Austrian border - the second since noon

  • And here is # of refugees each country must take in from , as per migrants relocation deal reached tonite

  • Legal conclusions of migrants decision finally out. Here are # of refugees each country must take in from

  • Asselborn: All MS can under "exceptional circumstances" stop quota but:
    1) cannot cut quota by more than 30% 2) 'Grace period' of 12 months

    So the Slovak PM was adamant that Greece abides by the rules but pledges to break rules not convenient for him?

    Last week, the French interior minister stopped Germany from making this dangerous mistake. Now it went through

    De Maziere warns that asylum seekers cannot 'chose' the EU country they want, and if they are found moving around, can be asked to leave EU.

    CZ MEP on CZ TV: "Vote'll have fatal influence on trust in EU in CZ. Not just a lost vote.Fundamentally shakes way EU operates"

    Czech Interior Minister : "Soon we will find out that the emperor has no clothes. Reason lost today"

    EU refugee quota: First 66k from GR/IT. 54k (probably from GR/IT again) at a later date, but with same "distribution key". Target is 120.000


    New Gov't Ministers & Cabinet ....

    new Cabinet:
    - Deputy PM: Dragasakis - FinMin: Tsakalotos - Alt FinMin: Chouliarakis - EconMin: Stathakis - Foreign: Kotzias

    ANEL leader Panos Kammenos remains Defence minister

    Health Minister Nikos Xanthos - new guy

    Justice Minister Nikos Paraskevopoulos

    Caretaker FinMin and caretaker Alt FinMin respectively.

    bank shares -8.6% today -16.2% this week -63.4% since early Aug -74.9% year to date

    Broader Europe.....

    Rajoy saying at PP rally in Reus that "everyone needs to vote on Sunday, and everyone you know".

    Morning Tweets.....


    Futures Plunge On Renewed Growth, Central Bank Fears; Volkswagen Shares Crash As Default Risk Surges

    Europe Items.....

    austria's Johanna MIKL-LEITNER calls for qmv on quotas if needed

    de maiziere - 'will be hard, not sure we'll get a result'

    De Maziere: Any agreement today will only be the foundation. We need to address causes of people coming to Europe.

    De Maziere: Beyond finding a settlement for 120K refugees - we also need to combat and prevent the flow of peoples to Europe.

    Thomas De Maziere, German Interior Minister: Europe cannot afford to not reach a solution today.

    Refugees get €800 cash in Denmark (Germany: €352, France: €330, Austria: €50, Italy/GR: €0)

    EU Aid Commissioner Christos Stylianides at : almost 2m refugees in Turkey now, they can count on the EU

    DETAILS: All regular passenger services to be cut between Salzburg, Munich

    BREAKING: German railway suspends services to Austria, Hungary amid

    DETAILS: Germany is 2nd EU member to cut train services due to

    EU Aid Commissioner Christos Stylianides at : political solution for conflict is the only way out, 20m in need in Syria & Iraq

    EU Aid Commissioner Christos Stylianides at : €4bn in EU funds for Syria, incl support for Jordan,Lebanon, have been mobilised

    EU Aid Commissioner Stylianides at : "EU Commission is trying to do more within bounds of our already tight budget" (sic)

    Visegrad summit rejects mandatory migrant quotas as Prague threatens to take EU to court:


    Reports EU has dropped idea of fining MS €6,500 for each person under their allotted migrant quota:

    Serbia gives Croatia (and EU) deadline to open border today. Emergency gov't meet called in Belgrade 14.30 local time. ()

    and Madrid wage battle of diplomacy over independence

    to deploy 2,000 in air base mission’s ‘first phase’ — And everything becomes suddenly even messier

    France ready to bomb 'in self-defense' – foreign minister

    “Our job is done” – United Nations present final Libya peace agreement

    's Bank Review Holds Key to 3 Billion-Euro Payment, EU Says via

    : draconian squeeze of primary expenditure has eased slightly, 1st time since January

    Stoxx 600 miners drop to 2009 low

    Glencore -9.5% today. Fresh record low.

    Greece monthly flows of revenues & expenditure, and difference to target

    Pledge to defend inflation mandate boosts Eurozone bonds. Yields fall across Eurozone.

    pays for Russian gas with ‘negotiations’ – finance minister

    Ukraine credit event approaching as country plans to suspend $500m principal payment due tomorrow with

    Refugees find shelter in the train station Victoria of Athens, on September 22, 2015 Photos: © Aggelos Barai

    Wet through after the boat journey from Turkey. More arrivals this morning. Five or six boats to Lesbos.

    : EU will not impose quotas for , distribution will be voluntary

    VW shares plunging now. -17%. They've lost a third of their value in last 2 days.

    VW -11%

    Volkswagen shares drop another 5% as VW CEO may be at risk & VW's crisis has potential to accelerate demise of Diesel

    Ex-Greek finance minister Tsakalotos said reluctant to take job again


    cash primary surplus improves by 32.4 pct to 3.07 bln on revenue boost in August.

    tax arrears rise again in August as 645 mln in new debt added for total of 6.92 bln this year.

    Luis Maria Linde says catalan banks will be kicked out from Euro / Ecb funding if Catalonia secedes.

    Previous coalition government Fin & Econ Mins to retain their posts in the new cabinet, according to local media.

    EU to hold talks as Hungary gives army anti-migrant powers

    Islamic State Threatens Cyber-Attack Against U.K., SITE Says

    Morning Note: 1. Xi Jinping on tour. 2. Fed's Lockhart on . 3. VW scandal spreads

    New Democracy, which distanced itself from bailout in elex campaign, now making it clear it won't vote for MoU bits it doesn't like

    Restrictions on capital slash imports

    Asia Items.....

    Our Economist poses & answers 'Ten urgent questions' on the economy - see note

    Stocks Post Longest Win Streak in Month as Brokerages Jump - Bloomberg -

    China slowdown brings pain for migrant workers- labour mkt imbalance hasn't meant wage growth

    | Weakens as Cuts Fixing Before Manufacturing Data - Bloomberg -

    has become a source of instability rather than growth. That makes upcoming us-china summit more challenging.

    Watch out for this- China looks to ditch $50K cap on individual outbound investment, outflows up to 50% of net assets allowed via

    investors shun world's wildest stocks as trading dries up.

    In keeping with rare bright spot in ADB outlook today- Vietnam still going great guns, credit growth to beat target.

    Major economy unemployment, September. Italy: 12% France: 10.4% Brazil: 7.5% Germany: 6.4% UK: 5.6% US: 5.1% China: 4% Japan: 3.3%

    PBOC Devalues Yuan, Injects More Liquidity As China's Banking Regulator Admits "Bad Loan Situation Is More Seve...

    "Emerging Markets Are On The Verge Of Liquidation" Top Performing Hedge Fund Manager Warns; "QE4 Is Coming"

    Share of world economy (PPP) 1980 China and India: 5.3% US and EU: 52.4% 2020 China and India: 27.5% US and EU: 30.4%

    With China Slowing, Faster Reforms Critical To Generate Jobs

    Youth unemployment, current Greece: 51.8% Spain: 48.6% Italy: 40.5% France: 24.1% UK: 16.1% India: 12.9% US: 11.7% Germany: 7% Japan: 5.5%

    Price change since September, 2014. Crude oil: -50% Natural gas: -33% Copper: -22% Aluminum: -16% Coal: -12% Steel: -69% Silver: -17%

    China has UK's support to get the yuan in IMF's SDR basket- Chinese Vice Premier Ma Kai after meeting George Osborne

    The U.S. Congress should have done that long ago and save them from the Aiib fiasco.

    Fastest growing G20 economies, 2015. India: 7.5% China: 6.9% Indonesia: 4.8% Turkey: 2.8% Saudi: 2.7% Korea: 2.6% Mexico: 2.5% UK: 2.5%