Sunday, June 21, 2015

Economic News , Data And Views ( June 21 , 2015 ) -- Greece Updates ( Tsipras presents new Greece proposals to Merkel and Hollande , Technical talks underway in Brussels , Tsipras meets with his Cabinet ahead of critical talks on Monday , GR Banks should open w/o problems Monday and over next few days , additional items to consider ) ..... Broader Europe items to consider - taking the temperature from around Europe on Greece , obvious highlight.....


Greece ......

Creditors offer six-month bailout reprieve as Tsipras weighs response.

Fish or cut bait time.... Greece’s international creditors are aiming to strike a deal to stop Athens defaulting on its 1

debt and possibly tumbling out of the euro by extending its bailout by six months and supplying up to €18bn (£12.9bn) in 2

rescue funds. The negotiators representing Greece’s lenders are also proposing to pledge debt relief for the 3

austerity-battered country- officials stressed that breakthrough hinged on positive response from Greek PM Tsipras.4

,Tsipras believed to have discussed offering Greece’s creditors – the European Central Bank (ECB), the IMF and the 5

European commission – unspecified concessions on tax and pensions reform. 6

@Schuldensuehn Not clear that Tsipras would be able to go far enough to make a final agreement possible on Monday, when the country’s 7

banks and the international money markets reopen after another weekend of pressure on the Greek financial system. 8

The only way an IMF default could now be avoided is for the ECB to raise the ceiling on S.T debt Athens is allowed to sell 9

Debt restructuring to be promised to Athens in the future, would come with strings attached-not part of the current B.O 10

Greek Creditors’ Meeting Ends With No New Proposals: EU Diplomat: BBG

Overall, nothing materially new at the moment re updated proposals.

According to , the final gov’t proposal includes ...

(1) VAT: 13% on electricity, 23% on food services remains under discussion, abolition of 30% discount probably only in large islands

(2) Pensions: Gradual limiting of early retirement since Jan 2016, rules out cuts in high supl pensions, as the fs impact is limited

(3) Extra levy on corporates with profits >€500k, abolition of 30% discount of solidarity levy for annual income >€30k


only ecb raising greek tbills ceiling by monday next week can prevent default to imf - eu sources

Surprising # of well-established businessmen & well-off Greeks are in favor of (not just default), thinking this will lead to (1)

the debunking of the -led govt, and consequently of state-fed clientelism, statism & years of crony capitalism. (2)

Meeting of Greek cabinet, which began late this morning has now been completed, reports

finmin expects Greek banks to be open without problems over next few days on ECB ELA.

area exposure to and whose banks were the most exposed back in 2010, by

Athens calls on to deal with without


While the negotiations evolve...thousands of people demonstrate for solidarity to in Brussels

Tsipras reiterated to Merkel, Hollande & Juncker agrmnt shld be mutually beneficial, shd provide permanent solution not postponement ~offcls

PM Tsipras in phone call w 's Merkel, 's Hollande & 's Juncker presented the new Greek proposal ~officials

Varoufakis: Greece prepared to compromise

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Goodbye Kiss Today? via Mish gives his thoughts on Greece


Tsipras meets with cabinet on eve of bailout talks

Amid fears of Greek controls, Cyprus shows restrictions are bearable

Athens says Europe 'doesn't need IMF' on eve of crunch summit


I'm told change in Mon time due to scheduling, not hopes/fears re: proposals. in p.m. pre-summit meetings

'Τechnical' negοtiations ongoing in Brussels Sunday ~ sources via |


I have and inkling feeling that this is going to be one of them phone call Sundays...three down, many to come.


Payment to is also a political decision, bef few days we paid €300mln to EIB, so not a liquidity issue, Mardas tells


No problem with the payment of wages and pensions at the end of month, Alt FinMin Mardas tells (via )

State Min Pappas:We don't ask just 4 an agreement but 4 a solution beneficial 4 people, 2 create confidence &not prolong uncertainty

Rift and agreement are on the table with equal odds, Dep Parliamentary Speaker Mitropoulos tells

Fasten your seat belts and remain cool, gov't sources suggest, according to

Goldman Sachs: Our base case remains that no agreement will be reached between & its official creditors in the coming few days

GS: Tech default/issuance of IOUs/deposit blocks may b needed 2break political impasse that prevents an accommodation being achieved

GS: Possibility exists that technical default/IOUs precipitate a chaotic situation that results in an inexorable slide 2 Grexit

government council convenes in a few minutes at 11 am (GR) to discuss the Greek latest proposal.

DB: It is more likely that solution will require that Greek govt converges to European position given broad support in Greece to remain in €

EU Commission’s new plan sees extending Greek aid to Sept, FAS reports.

FAS story on 3-month extension sees disbursement of €1.8bn tranche + €1.9bn SMP profits + €6bn out of EFSF's €10.9bn bank recap fund

Broader Europe items /  views from European key leaders and Fin Mins on Greece .....

Saudi Arabia and to Invest Up to $10 Billion in Joint Fund � Report

Belgium Says Accounts Blocked Over Yukos Settlement Being Unfrozen

European Council President Tusk: Meeting of € leaders "won't be final step. Detailed technical discussions remain job of Eurogroup".

The way it's looking now, if technical talks yield no progress any summit of €-zone leaders risks being pretty much a waste of time.

Again, the message to Tsipras is clear: a political agreement won't be enough.

Clear message from Spanish FinMin Luis de Guindos: Political deal important, but not enough. Technical agreement also essential.

Italian FinMin Padoan basically saying that, if Grexit happens, rest of Eurozone should use it to speed up further integration.