Thursday, March 5, 2015

Europe in Focus ( March 5 , 2015 ) - Germany strongly examining Grexit as a crisis it can manage ? Former Greece FM Venizelos to be investigated regarding Lagarde list ? Greece situation ( data , ongoing efforts during extension period , robbing Peter to pay Paul , mixed messages from European Politicians on a third bailout for Greece ) .... Data for Italy ( GDP ) , Germany ( Factory Orders ) ..... QE , hidden debt monetization and currency watch ( Turkish Lira and Euro ) items ....



As a reminder, the "worst case" of the ECB stress test did not assume deflation

Important: ESM Regling: Greece Could Plunge Into Deficit In 2015; primary surplus "melting away" - Handelsbaltt


nteresting theory that ECB is actually helping Greece with liquidity crunch. Read last para via

parl speaker Constantopoulou says Syriza & ANEL parl groups "will not tolerate a deviation for our pre-election pledges".

Nice summary of the Public Sector Purchase Program aka QE...

Buba's Dombret: govt bond purchases reduce incentives for reforms.

ECB's QE Q&A includes 6 occurrences of the word "flexbility".

Nice summary of the Public Sector Purchase Program aka QE...

"Varoufakis said that [he] has an alternative plan to plug financing shortfall without specifying what it was"

Greece cannot rely on ECB to dodge funding crunch, Draghi says

Draghi: ECB asked Eurogroup to make sure recapitalisation fund for Greek banks be readily available to face any sudden negative contingency

Are banks solvent? Very high level of deferred tax assets as share of capital...

Draghi: "Greek banks at the present time are solvent" Varoufakis: "Greece already is bankrupt" - Discuss

Draghi: One condition for ELA is that it be given to solvent banks with adequate collateral. Greek banks are solvent at the moment.

UKRAINE GOVT SAYS GDP MAY FALL 5.5% TO 11.9% THIS YR: STATEMENT. Is that the upside case?

's Draghi says ECB ready to resume Greek waiver if conditions met. Would buy Greek debt from Jul/Aug if waiver back.

Draghi: Purchases not supposed to take place for countries under a bailout programme during review period.

Draghi: Condition to resume ECB financing of Greek banks is process which suggests successful completion of review be put in place fast.

's Draghi says ECB is central bank of Greece. Lending to today 68% of Greek GDP.

Draghi: Will not buy bonds yielding below deposit rate

Why did ECB allow Samaras to raise t-bill by €3bn just after his election but won't let Tsipras do the same? Looks inconsistent.

RT : Reference to Art.123 means ECB still against extending the cap on T-bills as a solution 2 cover short-term funding needs

Draghi says raising T-bill issuance would constitute sovereign financing and the ECB is prohibited in doing that by its Treaty.

Draghi reminds EU Treaties forbid ECB monetary financing - i.e. ECB printing money to buy government debt.

briefly spiked above $1.11 on higher growth forecasts. Now $1.1084

ECB sees 2015 inflation at 0.0% from previous 0.7%, 2016 inflation at 1.5% from previous 1.3%, 2017 inflation at 1.8%.


RT : Upbeat staff forecasts for GDP: 1.5% in 2015 (up from 1.0%), 1.9% in 2016 (up from 1.5%), 2.1% in 2017 (first estimate).


Draghi: Combined monthly purchases of public and private sector securities will amount to €60bn.

Draghi: to launch QE March 9

Greek Gov't Looking More and More Like the Tower of Babel | via

Germany's Steinmeier. "Enormous loss of prestige for EU" if can't manage Greek crisis, force Grexit. Exactly

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in December 2014 was 26.0% compared to 27.3% in December 2013 and 25.9% in November 2014

FinMinistry rejects press reports that EwG discussed Gr proposals yesterday. Also rejects reports that troika is coming to Athens

Italy GDP

We're entering the most definitive period of the Greek crisis. Here's why:

Fmr finmin Venizelos to be investigated over withholding, possibly altering () about time

European politicians send mixed messages over third Greek bailout

Open Europe Berlin blog: FAZ’s says 3rd bailout for would act as “stimulus package” for

Here's since Sept 14 - steady downward march, now at lowest level for 11 yrs ahead of

German Factory Orders (Jan) M/M -3.9% vs Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 4.2%, Rev. 4.4%) () - large fall due to large order previous month

Where Greece hopes to find cash - and why the ECB says no

Greece, QE programme to top ECB meeting in Nicosia

Greece seeks to plug its 'Bermuda Triangle' of lost taxes

Greece struggles to make debt math work amid bailout standoff


raises ceiling by €500mln. Greek banks can now access €68.8bn of emergency liquidity, BBG reports citing website

Hidden govt debt monetization by ECB? secures new low 3-, 5yr borrowing costs at auction. Sold 5yr at 0.52%

Lira has plunged to fresh low vs Dollar as Ankara has attacked CenBank in an effort to force rates lower.

Ouch. “: This is THE table to look at when you are interested in Turkey. Worse than Ukraine... ”

just fallen to session low of $1.1026. Acc to Citi leveraged players and real money investors are net sellers.

Why QE when data has beaten? Will there be enough assets to buy? Questions for 's Draghi.