Saturday, February 28, 2015

Beware the Ides of March ! Not meant to necessarily occur on or before March 15th , but should be items of concern by Mid March - Focus on Nigeria , Russia , Ukraine and Greece !

Periodic Updates to be made at each section , if appropriate .....


Elections postponed from February set for March 28 , 2015 . Will the Presidential Election go forward or will be postponed once again - due to Boko Haram ?

Goodluck Jonathan to contest Nigeria election


Pro-Democracy Group Led By Femi Falana Protests Against Election Postponement & Military...

election candidate says failure to tackle Boko Haram a "big disgrace".

Russia .......
After the pressures on Russia from falling brent prices and an associated fall in the ruble in both December and January , February was a respite from the financial storms. Moreover , the Ukraine civil war seemed to cool down somewhat and Minsk 2 produced a temporary truce in major fighting - ffor the most part.  However , is the murder of Nemstov a sign things are about to heat up in Russia ( politically and financially ) ? 

We will do everything we can to find, punish killers - Putin


As points out, a week ago in Moscow, anti-Maidan crowd carried Nemtsov sign reading "Maidan organizer"

View image on Twitter
Image of car purported to have carried Nemtsov's murderers has Ingush plates.
15:38 GMT:
Police have interviewed the owner of the Lada Priora, which was earlier identified as the possible getaway vehicle for Nemtsov's murderer, according to Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper.
The owner of the car said he had parked it in central Moscow on Saturday afternoon, and had nothing to do with the hit.
12:49 GMT:
The car that carried the assassins of Boris Nemtsov has reportedly been found by police, according to REN TV news channel. The vehicle was found not far from the place where the opposition leader was killed. Now the officers are investigating the car.
The vehicle was allegedly identified as a Lada Priora. It carries license plates from Ingushetia, a republic of Russia in the North Caucasus region.

Ukraine ........

Ukraine has been struggling with its ongoing civil war , financial travails ( natural gas back to forefront as dispute with russia over prepayments looms again , currency travails , apparent hyperinflation , disappearance of the strategic food reserve , looming IMF decision on March 11th pertaining to latest bailout , debt restructure looming , et al ) and unstated but very real concerns the present Government could fall in the medium term . Just a very brief snapshot of recent items of note.....

Ukraine hopes to get $10 bln as first tranche from IMF: IFX

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Panic in Ukraine Over Food, Empty Stores and Protests; Strategic Fo via

Takeaways - real exchange rate ( 34-42 ) , riots in Lviv , Strategic Food Reserve empty - the rabbit hole is very deep.

Former Ukrainian MP from Party of Regions commits suicide in Kiev

deal with Dubai includes no weapons supplies - UAE Foreign Ministry

to send arms to using private contractors - hacker group

to make prepayments for Russian gas if supply uninterrupted – Naftogaz


Greece's issues are well chronicled. Simply stated , can Greece sustain itself through a critical March period ( ECB and IMF debt payments loom in March and questions exist as to whether the payments can be met ) ? And  if March payments are met , can it sustain itself through the end of the review period of its Reform Plans ( perhaps end of April ) ? And  if April is traversed , can Greece satisfy both the Creditors , the Greece Coalition and the Greek people and implement necessary program requirements before the 4 month extension runs during June ? Stay tuned .....


Senior Syriza Official hints at new election in Greece if deal cannot be reached with the Eurogroup, ECB and IMF

Snr govt official: If its decided that we wont backtrack +we will go through the end, a reaffirmation of popular mandate is required

Senior Syriza official to : What we have agreed with our creditors, it is not going to be implemented, and we all know it

Schaeuble: If  FinMin doesn't make the (debt) payment (2 ECB this summer) on time, that's a so-called default 

| Following today's developments at Syriza, I see the conclusion of the review by the Institutions as highly problematic.


Greece suggests that it might not have cash to give IMF on some debt payments coming due in March.

PM taken to hospital after speech to central committee. Overstrained, according to doctor.

‘Forget about a third bailout’ – Greek PM

Deposits do not appear to be returning to Greek banks yet. Withdrawn €64m this week: JPMorgan ~

RT : our only allies are russia (until it denies free loans) and venezuela (until it denies free oil)

PM Tsipras accuses Spain, Portugal of anti-Athens 'axis' /via

PM Tsipras says his gov't will negotiate w creditors in June a new agreement that will see no strict monitoring by the Institutions.

FinMin Varoufakis says he's already talking to lenders abt March payments, has asked for SMP profits to b returned now ~

FinMin Varoufakis says an emergency tax could be introduced acc to circumstances "but only for the 'haves' ~ TV

Greece seeks negotiations on ECB bond repayment

Tsipras unveils coalition's first bills, due next week

Speaking to Skai TV, Varoufakis says already talking to lenders about March IMF payment, has asked for ECB's SMP profits to be used