Tuesday, January 13, 2015

West starting a War which it can't win against Russia ? As the ruble along with oil remain under pressure , consider Russia mindset and consider what Russia can do next ?

Tweets..... 1/14/15.....

Poland stops reverse-flow supplies of gas to Ukraine No reason given, keep your eyes on Slovakia supplies to Ukraine

AEP: ECJ has declared legal supremacy over . If Karlsruhe accepts this, Germany will no longer be a fully self-governing sov state.

Confirms Approval Of Poland USD 23 Bln Credit Line, Only As A Precautionary Measure, Not Expecting It To Be Drawn On

Russia Just Pulled Itself Out Of The Petrodollar

Banking crisis in Russia will be massive — Sberbank CEO
Since mid-2014 Russian banks have publicly announced they are having problems with currency liquidity due to sanctions and growth of bad loans because of the situation in the economy. The Russian Central Bank consistently introduced new mechanisms of providing liquidity, including non-standard ones, in a move to support banks in difficult times. Also, the government made a decision to increase the capital of Russia's banking sector by $15 bln.


Tweets from 1/13/15....

World Bank cuts growth forecast for . Now sees 2.9% contraction in econ this year amid sanctions and oil plummet

Ruble weakens beyond 66 per Dollar as prices continue to drop.

What Happens Next In Russia - A 6-Step Recipe For Western Disaster



This part almost writes itself. It's a recipe for disaster, so I'll write it out as a recipe.
1. Take a nation of people who respond to offense by damning you to hell, and refusing to having anything more to do with you, rather than fighting. Make sure that this is a nation whose natural resources are essential for keeping your lights on and your houses heated, for making your passenger airliners and your jet fighters, and for a great many other things. Keep in mind, a quarter of the light bulbs in the US light up thanks to Russian nuclear fuel, whereas a cut-off of Russian gas to Europe would be a cataclysm of the first order.

2. Make them feel that they are being invaded by installing a government that is hostile to them in a territory that they consider part of their historical homeland. The only truly non-Russian part of the Ukraine is Galicia, which parted company many centuries ago and which, most Russians will tell you, “You can take to hell with you.” If you like your neo-Nazis, you can keep your neo-Nazis. Also keep in mind how the Russians deal with invaders: they freeze them out.

3. Impose economic and financial sanctions on Russia. Watch in dismay as your exporters start losing money when in instant retaliation Russia blocks your agricultural exports. Keep in mind that this is a country that, thanks to surviving a long string of invasion attempts, traditionally relies on potentially hostile foreign states to finance its defense against them. If they fail to do so, then it will resort to other ways of deterring them, such as freezing them out. “No gas for NATO members” seems like a catchy slogan. Hope and pray that it doesn't catch on in Moscow.

4. Mount an attack on their national currency, causing it to lose part of its value on par with a lower price of oil. Watch in dismay as Russian officials laugh all the way to the central bank because the lower ruble has caused state revenues to remain unchanged in spite of lower oil prices, erasing a potential budget deficit.Watch in dismay as your exporters go bankrupt because their exports are priced out of the Russian market. Keep in mind, Russia has no national debt to speak of, runs a negligible budget deficit, has plentiful foreign currency reserves and ample gold reserves. Also keep in mind that your banks have loaned hundreds of billions of dollars to Russian businesses (which you have just deprived of access to your banking system by imposing sanctions). Hope and pray that Russia doesn't put a freeze on debt repayments to western banks until the sanctions are lifted, since that would blow up your banks.

5. Watch in dismay as Russia signs major natural gas export deals with everyone except you. Is there going to be enough gas left for you when they are done? Well, it appears that this no longer a concern for the Russians, because you have offended them, and, being who they are, they told you to go to hell (don't forget to take Galicia with you) and will now deal with other, friendlier countries.

6. Continue to watch in dismay as Russia actively looks for ways to sever most of the trade links with you, finding suppliers in other parts of the world or organizing production for import replacement.

But now comes a surprise—an underreported one, to say the least. Russia has just offered the EU a deal. If the EU refuses to join the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the US (which, by the way, would hurt it economically) then it can join the Customs Union with Russia. Why freeze yourselves out when we can all freeze out Washington instead? This is the restitution Russia would accept for the EU's offensive behavior with regard to the Ukraine and the sanctions. Coming from a customs state, it is a most generous offer. A lot went into making it: the recognition that the EU poses no military threat to Russia and not much of an economic one either; the fact that the European countries are all very cute and tiny and lovable, and make tasty cheeses and sausages; the understanding that their current crop of national politicians is feckless and beholden to Washington, and that they need a big push in order to understand where their nations' true interests lie... Will the EU accept this offer, or will they accept Galicia as a new member and “freeze out”?

A sampling of Russian deals....

The two sides will focus on ways to boost trade during talks that will see around 15 agreements inked.

Wow! Russia & China sign 17 trade agreements including another giant natural gas deal!

Looks like now wants to rely on new food trade agreements with due to the

With Ukraine Default Risk At 6 Year Highs, US Taxpayers "Volunteer" To Guarantee Its Debt



As Reuters reports, The US Treasury seems more than happy to put $2 billion of US taxpayer money at risk...
The United States plans to provide up to $2 billion in loan guarantees to Ukraine this year, the U.S. Treasury said on Tuesday, as part of a broader international package to stave off bankruptcy.

Like other major donors to the country, Treasury said the guarantees would be contingent on the former Soviet republic remaining on track to meet the conditions of its loan program from the International Monetary Fund.

Treasury said it would provide a $1 billion loan guarantee to Kiev in the first half of this year, and work with the U.S. Congress to provide an additional $1 billion guarantee, but only if Kiev sticks with its reform agenda.


How ironic it is that, should Russia decide to demand early repayment (not a controversial decision), then - despite all the sanctions and economic warfare - it would be the US taxpayer's cash that 'bails' them out indirectly...
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But that's not all:

Busted - that would be Ukraine...