Thursday, January 29, 2015

European Financial and Political Report - January 29 , 2015 ( updated as relevant ) - News And Views Impacting Markets Today .... Country Focus - Italy , Greece , Russia , Ukraine , Germany , Poland ...... Oil , Bonds , Currencies - items of interest ....


Evening Tweets....






Russia buys record amounts of gold








The cut in real per capita govt spending experienced by Greece between 2007 and 2014 was 24% - Peterson Institute





How Greek Citizens Saw Their Government Services Curtailed ht








Greece: end of 2013, official creditors accounted for about 94% of total loans due to non-residents ( )












FinMin Siluanov considers giving financial help to debt-ridden .



's FM Kotzias: sanctions created financial problems in Greece. Proposal that imposed new sanctions on Russia was removed.





Is The Swiss Franc Tumbling Due To Month-End SNB Window-Dressing?





"Costs" - US WARNS RUSSIA OF NEW CONSEQUENCES: AFP























Morning Tweets......





Germany's Steinmeier says EU sanctions on Russia talks are complicated by the new Greek government





Miners protest Yatsenyuks gov in yesterday: No pay for months, soon they'll beat more than helmets











OHHH-OOHH.... Germany slumps into deflation in January












CPI (MoM) Jan P: -1.00% (est -0.80%; prev 0.00%), (YoY) Jan P: -0.30% (est -0.10%; prev 0.20%) | "Non-inflation" ;-)






HAHAHA, Belarus prez Lukashenko tells investors to "please calm down", he meant to say "refinance" not restructure....



Belarus Leader Says He Meant ‘Refinance’ Not ‘Restructure’ Debt. Oh, everyone makes that mistake





hires Lazard to assist with debt restructuring, Dow Jones reports. 5yr default probability remains >85%.







In trial balloon news:
- BELARUS MAY SEEK DEBT RESTRUCTURING, PRESIDENT SAYS - BELARUS FINMIN NOT CONSIDERING DEBT RESTRUCTURING: WEBSITE




RECORD KLAXON. German 30-year bund yield falls below 1%



















UK 10 year government bond yield hits new record low of 1.406










Germany set to slip into deflation today....




Slight rebound in markets this morning, long way to go to erase past few days though










Dec credit contraction at 3.1% YoY from 3% in Nov. Net deductions at €234 mln in Dec from €171 mln in Nov.




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's Coeure suggests lenders may accept "different reforms from ones expected" in . The way in for ?















Polish Foreign Minister argues sanctions on shld be extended - while accused of holding them up:






Athens market on a rebound: +2.82%, banks +13.8%!





: 'No question of writing down Greek debt - There can be no democratic choice against the European treaties."








EP Pres to : Greece cannot demand solidarity from Europe and then split joint EU position on Russia.








German FinMin Wolfgang : “If [Greece] don’t want any more aid, we won’t force any upon them.”






German FinMin Schäuble says Dijsselbloem “does not have a mandate” to negotiate for Eurozone ahead meet w/ Tsipras:





Raiffeisen Bank International is "definitely” not in talks with Austria to get new state aid: CFO







Greek bonds clobbered after S&P warning












Russia considers creation of ‘bad bank’ to aid financial sector - via




Lukashenko rules out possibility of 'Maidan' in Belarus




Belarus bonds in free fall








BELARUS BONDS CRASH -20.52%



secures record Low 5-, 10-Year borrowing costs at Auction. Sold €3bn 2019 BTP at 0.89%, €1.75bn 2020 BTP 0.87%, €3.5bn 2024 BTP 1.62%








French EconMin: Europe Faces "Religious War" Between Northern, Southern Economies. (DJ)








What the...?? BBG quoting Lukashenko: BELARUS MAY SEEK RESTRUCTURING OF DEBT PAYMENTS THIS YR





Dec Producer Price Index -5.7% YoY and -3.4% MoM. 12-month trailing index -1.2% (ELSTAT).







"A question of respect (or lack thereof)…–the Greek veto over that never was" by

***

The issue is whether our view can be taken for granted without even being told of what it is! From my perspective, even though (let me state it again) I am certainly not qualified to speak on foreign affairs, this is all about a question of respect for our national sovereignty.  Could journalists the world over try to draw this important distinction between protesting our being neglected from protesting the sanctions themselves? Or is this too complicated ? "



Lukashenko says Belarus may leave EEU if others default on agreements





Raiffeisen CFO says new state aid would be "nonsense"










will sue for $6.2 bln over gas transit deal






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Italy (indirect) presidential election begins today. 1009 electors; First three votes require 2/3 maj. Simple maj. from 4th; Secret ballot.








Renzi's (first) candidate for Italian President is Constitutional Court judge Sergio Mattarella. No deal with Berlusconi for now.








S&P puts Greece on watch for downgrade after sizing up new coalition





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Israeli cyber-analyst reveals: Islamic State uses Bitcoin for fundraising









Manhattan district attorney Cyrus R Vance Jr has said regulated exchanges would be beneficial for law enforcement











The latest Bitcoin Price Index is 230.93 USD





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Greek debt crisis rears its ugly head: Who has the most to lose?





Any growth-based loan repayment scheme would have to include a comprehensive reform package to ensure growth. Will Syriza hardliners accept




It is obvious the Greek gov tries to move out of the corner. Major road block: The extension of the bailout agrmnts. Hardliners won't accept




Gov't leaks its plan for negotiations w the Eurozone:
1. Growth-based loan payments 2. Lower primary surpluses yet balanced budgets





Greek market jitters evident as investors dump shares and bonds






Will Greece's new order lead to changing of guard across Europe, asks





Tsipras' socialist paradise in Europe is very costly for investors. 's stock market has lost €12bn in value.





Shell to cut investment by $15bn over next 3 years because of falling oil prices - company






disagrees with anti-Russian to show independence from EU





German 10yr Bund yields just hit fresh low at 0.33% following the script drafted in the 1990s.





New Greek FM to address dispute with EU on Russian sanctions



Tsipras tries to strike balanced tone in first cabinet address








Salaries of soldiers to be increased - Poroshenko






New day same old song: Ruble weakens vs Dollar on familiar refrain of more sanctions, weak oil & uncertainty.



foreign ministers will consider further anti-








Greek bonds going a bit crazy this morning - GR 10y yield down 185bps in early trade






Moody's: ’s election result is credit negative for Greek banks, sees deposit outflows >€12 bln in Dec-Jan. /via









Members of German Advisory Panel criticizes TTIP. Agreement represents infringement of state sovereignty. via









Bank of England governor attacks austerity. Urges Eurozone to spend its way out of stagnation.









European unity on Russia sanctions crumbling: complains over EU sanctions statement against .









Alarm bells ring over Syriza’s Russian links. Pol & security implications in Europe are only now dawning (via TimAsh)