Thursday, January 29, 2015

European Financial and Political Report - January 29 , 2015 ( updated as relevant ) - News And Views Impacting Markets Today .... Country Focus - Italy , Greece , Russia , Ukraine , Germany , Poland ...... Oil , Bonds , Currencies - items of interest ....

Evening Tweets....

Russia buys record amounts of gold

The cut in real per capita govt spending experienced by Greece between 2007 and 2014 was 24% - Peterson Institute

How Greek Citizens Saw Their Government Services Curtailed ht

Greece: end of 2013, official creditors accounted for about 94% of total loans due to non-residents ( )

FinMin Siluanov considers giving financial help to debt-ridden .

's FM Kotzias: sanctions created financial problems in Greece. Proposal that imposed new sanctions on Russia was removed.

Is The Swiss Franc Tumbling Due To Month-End SNB Window-Dressing?


Morning Tweets......

Germany's Steinmeier says EU sanctions on Russia talks are complicated by the new Greek government

Miners protest Yatsenyuks gov in yesterday: No pay for months, soon they'll beat more than helmets

OHHH-OOHH.... Germany slumps into deflation in January

CPI (MoM) Jan P: -1.00% (est -0.80%; prev 0.00%), (YoY) Jan P: -0.30% (est -0.10%; prev 0.20%) | "Non-inflation" ;-)

HAHAHA, Belarus prez Lukashenko tells investors to "please calm down", he meant to say "refinance" not restructure....

Belarus Leader Says He Meant ‘Refinance’ Not ‘Restructure’ Debt. Oh, everyone makes that mistake

hires Lazard to assist with debt restructuring, Dow Jones reports. 5yr default probability remains >85%.

In trial balloon news:

RECORD KLAXON. German 30-year bund yield falls below 1%

UK 10 year government bond yield hits new record low of 1.406

Germany set to slip into deflation today....

Slight rebound in markets this morning, long way to go to erase past few days though

Dec credit contraction at 3.1% YoY from 3% in Nov. Net deductions at €234 mln in Dec from €171 mln in Nov.


's Coeure suggests lenders may accept "different reforms from ones expected" in . The way in for ?

Polish Foreign Minister argues sanctions on shld be extended - while accused of holding them up:

Athens market on a rebound: +2.82%, banks +13.8%!

: 'No question of writing down Greek debt - There can be no democratic choice against the European treaties."

EP Pres to : Greece cannot demand solidarity from Europe and then split joint EU position on Russia.

German FinMin Wolfgang : “If [Greece] don’t want any more aid, we won’t force any upon them.”

German FinMin Schäuble says Dijsselbloem “does not have a mandate” to negotiate for Eurozone ahead meet w/ Tsipras:

Raiffeisen Bank International is "definitely” not in talks with Austria to get new state aid: CFO

Greek bonds clobbered after S&P warning

Russia considers creation of ‘bad bank’ to aid financial sector - via

Lukashenko rules out possibility of 'Maidan' in Belarus

Belarus bonds in free fall


secures record Low 5-, 10-Year borrowing costs at Auction. Sold €3bn 2019 BTP at 0.89%, €1.75bn 2020 BTP 0.87%, €3.5bn 2024 BTP 1.62%

French EconMin: Europe Faces "Religious War" Between Northern, Southern Economies. (DJ)


Dec Producer Price Index -5.7% YoY and -3.4% MoM. 12-month trailing index -1.2% (ELSTAT).

"A question of respect (or lack thereof)…–the Greek veto over that never was" by


The issue is whether our view can be taken for granted without even being told of what it is! From my perspective, even though (let me state it again) I am certainly not qualified to speak on foreign affairs, this is all about a question of respect for our national sovereignty.  Could journalists the world over try to draw this important distinction between protesting our being neglected from protesting the sanctions themselves? Or is this too complicated ? "

Lukashenko says Belarus may leave EEU if others default on agreements

Raiffeisen CFO says new state aid would be "nonsense"

will sue for $6.2 bln over gas transit deal


Italy (indirect) presidential election begins today. 1009 electors; First three votes require 2/3 maj. Simple maj. from 4th; Secret ballot.

Renzi's (first) candidate for Italian President is Constitutional Court judge Sergio Mattarella. No deal with Berlusconi for now.

S&P puts Greece on watch for downgrade after sizing up new coalition


Israeli cyber-analyst reveals: Islamic State uses Bitcoin for fundraising

Manhattan district attorney Cyrus R Vance Jr has said regulated exchanges would be beneficial for law enforcement

The latest Bitcoin Price Index is 230.93 USD


Greek debt crisis rears its ugly head: Who has the most to lose?

Any growth-based loan repayment scheme would have to include a comprehensive reform package to ensure growth. Will Syriza hardliners accept

It is obvious the Greek gov tries to move out of the corner. Major road block: The extension of the bailout agrmnts. Hardliners won't accept

Gov't leaks its plan for negotiations w the Eurozone:
1. Growth-based loan payments 2. Lower primary surpluses yet balanced budgets

Greek market jitters evident as investors dump shares and bonds

Will Greece's new order lead to changing of guard across Europe, asks

Tsipras' socialist paradise in Europe is very costly for investors. 's stock market has lost €12bn in value.

Shell to cut investment by $15bn over next 3 years because of falling oil prices - company

disagrees with anti-Russian to show independence from EU

German 10yr Bund yields just hit fresh low at 0.33% following the script drafted in the 1990s.

New Greek FM to address dispute with EU on Russian sanctions

Tsipras tries to strike balanced tone in first cabinet address

Salaries of soldiers to be increased - Poroshenko

New day same old song: Ruble weakens vs Dollar on familiar refrain of more sanctions, weak oil & uncertainty.

foreign ministers will consider further anti-

Greek bonds going a bit crazy this morning - GR 10y yield down 185bps in early trade

Moody's: ’s election result is credit negative for Greek banks, sees deposit outflows >€12 bln in Dec-Jan. /via

Members of German Advisory Panel criticizes TTIP. Agreement represents infringement of state sovereignty. via

Bank of England governor attacks austerity. Urges Eurozone to spend its way out of stagnation.

European unity on Russia sanctions crumbling: complains over EU sanctions statement against .

Alarm bells ring over Syriza’s Russian links. Pol & security implications in Europe are only now dawning (via TimAsh)