Monday, October 27, 2014

Iraq / Syria Regional War ( October 27 , 2014 ) - An analysis of how ISIS could cause the fall of Baghdad ......Shi'a Militias summarily execute captives ( ostensibly ISIS members ) after capturing Sunni town in Iraq .... Kobani in focus ( battle rages on as do Kurdish rivalries )

Anti War.....

Links 10/29.....

John Cantlie Video Proves That ISIS Expects Victory in Kobani

US Airstrikes in Syria Badly Damaging Civilian Economy

Battles Continue Near Iraq Capital; 162 Killed

150 Iraqi Peshmerga En Route to Syria's Kobani

Turkey Sets Conditions for Helping West in Kobani Crisis in Syria

Syria Neighbors Call for More Refugee Aid, as US Urges Open Borders

Link 10/27 ...

Syria Govt Providing Military Support to Kurds
US Sees Syria Rebels in Political, Not Military Solution: Report

Bombers Attack Civilian and Security Targets Across Iraq, 317 Killed

US, Partners Conduct 11 More Strikes in Syria, Iraq Against ISIS: Centcom

Islamist Militants Storm Government Building in Idlib, Northwest Syria

Assad's Warnings Start to Ring True in Turkey


ISIS Expulsion From Iraq Town Leads to Revenge Killings

Shi'ite Militias Summarily Execute Captives

by Jason Ditz, October 26, 2014
The ISIS ouster from Jurf al-Sakhar, just south of Baghdad, was much less of the “liberation” that officials presented it as and rather another sectarian conquest, with the Shi’ite militias pushing into the overwhelmingly Sunni town.
We’ve heard that story a few times already, and what came next should surprise nobody, as militias captured putative ISIS members and carried out summary executions in broad daylight.
“These dogs are Chechens. They don’t deserve to stay alive,” noted one of the militia leaders. “We took confessions from them and we don’t need them anymore.”
The sectarian underpinnings of the ISIS war have loomed large over the battles for many towns, with Sunni locals not necessarily “pro-ISIS,” but seeing remaining under their rule as far safer than being returned to the Iraqi fold, and rule by militia.

Iraqi Peshmerga Won’t Enter Kobani

Turkey: Syrian Kurds Don't Want Them There

by Jason Ditz, October 26, 2014
The story surrounding 150-200 Peshmerga fighters from Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) heading to Syria remains unclear, with the latest reports saying that the Peshmerga will never actually enter Kobani or take any direct role in the fighting there.
Rather, the Peshmerga will be used to provide artillery supportfor the Kurdish fighters already in Kobani, who are trying to keep ISIS fighters from seizing the town and the border crossing into Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that the decision came from the Syrian Kurdish fighters affiliated with the PYD, claiming they don’t want the Peshmerga to replace them as the dominant faction there.
Erdogan went on to claim that the PYD were the reason the number of fighters has been reduced, and that the Peshmerga offered 500 troops, but the PYD would accept no more than 155, and only in a support role.
The reliability of Erdogan’s claims must be questioned, because his government is on extremely poor terms with the PYD, which is considered a terrorist organization in Turkey. Still, the disconnect between Syrian and Iraqi Kurds is a long-standing reality, and the explanation could be plausible.

ISIS to Send Top Commander to Kobani as Border Push Stalls

Kurdish Fighters Repel Pre-Dawn Raid

by Jason Ditz, October 26, 2014
Another pre-dawn raid by ISIS against the border crossing near Kobani (Ayn al-Arab in Arabic) has been repelled by Kurdish fighters, and more ISIS reinforcements are reportedly en route to try to shift the tide of battle.
The reinforcements aren’t just rank-and-file ISIS fighters this time, as reports say thatChechen commander Abu Omar al-Shishani, one of the top military commanders in the ISIS force, is being sent there to take charge of the situation.
ISIS likely figured they had this battle well in hand, having taking hundreds of villages around Kobani before stalling at the border town itself in the face of intense Kurdish opposition. The offensive has now lasted well over a month, with the battle for the town itself over two weeks.
US airstrikes have been focused on Kobani, trying to keep ISIS from getting its fighters in any faster, and while the US claims massive death tolls from the strikes, ISIS continues to pump more fighters in, and has changed its tactics to make them less easily targeted from the air.

Are We Ready For The Fall Of Baghdad?

Tyler Durden's picture

I recently was in Vietnam and spent some time in prosperous, capitalist Saigon, now called Ho Chi Minh City, and toured the American War Museum. I believe there are a number of parallels between the Vietnam and Iraq War and that history could repeat itself now in Baghdad. Who can forget the former Vietnamese supporters of America being left behind as the last helicopter left the roof of the US embassy?
Today, America still has the strongest military in the world but our manufacturing capacity and financial situation shows the US is on a downhill slide like earlier over-extended and bankrupt empires throughout world history.
We've already watched the frightening incompetence of the Obama Administration and the CDC in dealing with the Ebola virus. One would have to be blind not to see the petrodollar deathwatch as Russia, China and the BRIC countries build new trading alternatives to avoid using the dollar world reserve currency when trading energy and other financial dealings.
This is simple payback for Washington's threats, banking fines and penalties against institutions and nations de jure that fail to march to the US tune of dictating trade and financial arrangements. The world is now ganging up on the United States because Washington has terrorized smaller nations around the world for decades as the big bully on the block.
We've had the misfortune of watching ISIS – originally funded and equipped by the US, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf allies, as was Bin Laden – turn on their benefactors out to destroy Assad in Syria because of a pipeline deal and take over much of Iraq. My point is just as the pro-US South Vietnamese government could not survive without major US forces, neither will the present government in Baghdad. So what could happen to the massive, fortified Baghdad US Embassy in the Green Zone that rivals the Vatican in size? What are the possible military objectives of the Islamic State fighters (ISIS) in regard to the Iraqi capitol?
While the US media elites and the Air Force concentrates on a meaningless ISIS backwater diversionary attack on Kobane on the northern Syrian border with Turkey, their real target is Baghdad and this will likely become very apparent between now and the end of the year. Our military experts confidently state that ISIS does not have enough troops to take and hold Baghdad, a city of 7 to 9 million people. They are correct unless ISIS wants to destroy its forces like the German Wehrmacht squandered its strength fighting in Leningrad or Stalingrad.
But they can win major PR victories without getting bogged down in street-to-street fighting in the Shiite areas in the north and east.Baghdad has been a city in transition since the Bush invasion created a power vacuum and endless violence in the capitol.Historically full of neighborhoods with a mix of Sunni and Shia, the population division is now almost complete with most Shia concentrated in the north and east of the river and most Sunni in the area stretching from the airport to the American Green Zone. Here lies the problem: The western Sunni neighborhoods are perfect cover for the Islamic fighters to slowly infiltrate the area around the Green Zone and embassy compound and mix in with the population. After all, this is a Sunni insurrection against the majority Shia government.
Hence the ISIS advance in Anbar province to just outside the airport is a direct threat to the Green Zone because their forces will be moving through predominantly Sunni neighborhoods all the way east to the American embassy. They could but surprisingly have not attempted to shut down the airport and here is where the situation gets interesting. Late this week, the Iraq army leadership basically said that unless US forces arrive to help them defend the western approaches to the city, they will throw down their weapons and go home – and I believe they will.
The scenario I see is the first attack will likely be against the most heavily defended target, the US embassy and the Green Zone. The ISIS fighters are not strong enough to take the heavily fortified green zone by direct assault and so it will probably fail.
The US will then attempt to fly in reinforcements to the airport and this will be when ISIS will start mortar fire and attempt to close the Baghdad airport as well as attack any convoys through the Sunni neighborhoods heading to the Green Zone. They will likely be able to shut down the airport, thus forcing reinforcements and embassy staff leaving to use helicopters for transportation to airfields further south in Iraq or maybe even to Kuwait. Closing the airport will be a major public relations victory for ISIS.
A siege of the Green Zone and American embassy will likely then take place and the US will be forced to destroy by air the Sunni neighborhoods surrounding the area from the zone west to the airport at a minimum resulting in heavy Sunni civilian causalities. Once again, more bad PR for the United States.
Eventually, the US may well be forced to close the embassy and withdraw from the Green Zone, which will result in videos that remind the American public of the Saigon collapse back on April 30, 1975. This would be a tremendous PR victory for the extremists, resulting in more fighter recruits.
Finally, if the US is forced to withdraw from their fortified embassy then, of course, ISIS will take over America's largest embassy in the world. Note, this embassy compound can hold 35,000 American personnel and is basically a small city-state within Baghdad that is massively defended.
This, again, is another victory for ISIS. Finally, the US may well decide to destroy the entire Green Zone and embassy by air to prevent its occupation by the terrorists. This will provide yet more videos – the US destroying its biggest embassy in addition to our earlier air attacks directed at our own tanks and trucks taken by ISIS troops when the Iraq army ran away from Mosul and northern Iraq.
Although the Bush invasion of Iraq has been a costly tragic mistake for all involved, we would do well to never again put US troops back on the ground there. Otherwise, our other economic and financial weaknesses and major threats to our national interests, including the end of the dollar as the world reserve currency, could happen far sooner when combined with a major military defeat and loss of prestige that does not have to take place.
I will be writing more about what happens on the home front to private wealth, prosperity and property when empires collapse and why American investors should look now at possible safe haven opportunities and global investment alternatives to survive and prosper in the future. Remember, all empires die but – although seldom covered in the history books – it is never a pleasant experience for the citizenry.