Moon of Alabama....
( It's complicated.... )
Tweets of the day....
The New "Regime Change" Plan - Attack Damascus From The South
There are serious active preparations for a new attack on Damascus. Anti-government forces, including the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, have been trained and equipped in Jordan and are now moving into their starting position in Quneitra governate in south-west Syria. (A similar plan in spring 2013 was only partially executed and later aborted,)
Quneitra governate is a strip next to the Israel occupied Golan heights with a southern border to Jordan and a north western border with Lebanon.
The anti-government forces cooperating for this operation are the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF), which is backed by the United States, assisted by the Islamic Front, backed by Saudi Arabia, and al-Qaeda's Jabhat al-Nusrah which just received some $20 million from Qatar. These forces infiltrated from Jordan through Daara and then up north-westward along the border with Israel. This movement, during which some UN observers were kidnapped by these forces, was supported by Israeli artillery strikes against Syrian units that tried to prevent it. The sole border station between Israel and Syria is now in the hands of the anti-government forces. The Israeli military is also providing medical support to these anti-government forces. The UN has pulled out all peacekeepers from the Syrian side of the Golan height demarcation line.
The anti-government forces now control a 40 miles (70km) long, three miles (5km) wide strip from Jordan along the Golan frontier up to Lebanon. This strip can be used to infiltrate into Hizbullah territory in south Lebanon but its main purpose is likely an attack on Damascus from the south. The Syrian military would have great difficulties to dislodge the anti-government forces from this strip as it is covered by Israeli anti-air and artillery fire.
There are rumors that Jabhat al-Nusra is leaving positions it has been holding in Hama governate in north Syria. It's groups are pulling back into Turkey to be transferred to Jordan and then as reinforcements into Quneitra.
The rather empty Quneitra area makes little sense to conquer except to be used as a launching pad for an attack from the south towards Damascus. The distance to the capital is only some 40 miles (60km). While two Syrian army divisions are stationed between Quneitra governate and Damascus coordinated air attacks against them could open and secure a route from Quneitra governate into the capital. Recent truceagreements between the U.S. supported Syrian Revolutionary Front and ISIS in the area south of Damascus may have been concluded with these attack plans in mind.
The U.S. military in the joint Arab-American operations room for the Syrian insurgency in Amman Jordan may well plan to use the murky new "war on ISIS" as pretext for attacks on the Syrian army divisions protecting Damascus from the south. Coordinated with a ground attack by Jabhat al-Nusra and others from Quneitra such air attacks would seriously degrade the Syrian forces and enable a destructive push into Damascus.
(update) Obama already announced the escalation path for such air attacks:
He made clear the intricacy of the situation, though, as he contemplated the possibility that Mr. Assad might order his forces to fire at American planes entering Syrian airspace. If he dared to do that, Mr. Obama said he would order American forces to wipe out Syria’s air defense system, which he noted would be easier than striking ISIS because its locations are better known. He went on to say that such an action by Mr. Assad would lead to his overthrow, according to one account.
The stampede to attack ISIS may have been pure maskirovka to hide this violent regime change attack plan against Syria under some "anti-terrorism" label. This at the same time as the plan is coordinated with and actively supported by Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria, and made possible through truce agreements with ISIS.
( It's complicated.... )
The rise of Islamic State has upended geopolitics in the Middle East and, as The Economist notes, drawn America's military back to the region. Though ISIS is popular among militants, the group has no allies on the political stage, making it even more isolated than the official al-Qaeda affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra. As The Economist's "relationship mosaic" above visualizes the rapports among countries, political groups and militant organizations in the Middle East.
Tweets of the day....
Airstrikes against ISIS are not a "strategy" – they're a tactic. And they won't get us far http://thebea.st/1qDvT0M pic.twitter.com/ejN6uUacI1
Retweeted by Joel Wing
BREAKING: U.S. launches first offensive airstrikes against ISIS near Baghdad http://nbcnews.to/1qXwPuv
Turkish military weighs "buffer zone" against threat from Iraq, Syria: media http://bit.ly/1uBnWt4
Are military contractors heading back to Iraq? http://almon.co/27i6
#Syria MAP UPDATE > the military situation in Syria as of 15 SEPTEMBER 2014 > https://pietervanostaeyen.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/2000px-syria7.png … @arabthomness
#Turkey is finding it difficult to define its position in the fight between its NATO allies and #IS - @CengizCandar http://almon.co/27d0
Conscription Bill to be proposed to #Iraqi Parliament - #BasNews - http://www.basnews.com/en/News/Details/Conscription-Bill-to-be-proposed-to-Iraqi-Parliament/34133 …
#Iraqi President: Iran Should be Present at #Paris Conference - #BasNews - http://www.basnews.com/en/News/Details/Iraqi-President--Iran-Should-be-Present-at-Paris-Conference/34128 …
#Syrian forces bombing #Waer "to force civilians and rebels to agree to the regime's truce conditions," Homs Media Center activist tells us.
#Islamist party in #Kurdistan to meet for important changes, including stance over #IS. http://fb.me/1ybk2p4fb
Sec-General of #Nato "Appeasement does not lead to peace. It just incites tyrants" speaking at @Carnegie_Europe #AskAnders