http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-29/kick-russia-out-swift-uk-demands-beware-retaliation
( Cameron taking crazy pills ... or very , very desperate .)
Kick Russia Out Of SWIFT, UK Demands; But Beware The Retaliation...
UK Prime Minister David Cameron came out swinging this morning; not only at ISIS but in calling for European leaders to block Russia from the SWIFT banking transaction system. European leaders have already (via unnamed sources) denied any actual new sanctions will take place (though they will be discussing them at the NATO Summit) but - as we have noted previously - this is yetanother unintended consequence-driven nail in the coffin of USD hegemony...
Bloomberg reports that the U.K. Said to Press EU to Block Russia From Banking Network
The U.K. will press European Union leaders to consider blocking Russian access to the SWIFT banking transaction system under an expansion of sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine, a British government official said.The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as SWIFT, is one of Russia's main connections to the international financial system. Prime Minister David Cameron's government plans to put the topic on the agenda for a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels Aug. 30, according to the official, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.
This has consequences...
“Blocking Russia from the SWIFT system would be avery serious escalation in sanctions against Russia and would most certainly result in equally tough retaliatory actions by Russia,” said Chris Weafer, a senior partner at Moscow-based consulting firm Macro Advisory. “An exclusion from SWIFT would not block major trade deals but would cause problems in cross-border banking and that would disrupt trade flows.”
But then we already knew that...
But while collecting credit card data was to be expected, what is even worse is that the NSA has also secretly planted itself in the nexus of the entire global USD-intermediated financial transactions system courtesy of SWIFT.The NSA's Tracfin data bank also contained data from the Brussels-based Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), a network used by thousands of banks to send transaction information securely. SWIFT was named as a "target," according to the documents, which also show that the NSA spied on the organization on several levels, involving, among others, the agency's "tailored access operations" division. One of the ways the agency accessed the data included reading "SWIFT printer traffic from numerous banks," the documents show.What is curious is that while the NSA and its henchmen, in this case the GCHQ, had no qualms about violating personal privacy at every level, it is only when banks were threatened that someone feel like perhaps a line was crossed:But even intelligence agency employees are somewhat concerned about spying on the world finance system, according to one document from the UK's intelligence agency GCHQ concerning the legal perspectives on "financial data" and the agency's own cooperations with the NSA in this area.In other words, America's unsupervised uber spies, when not checking in on their former significant others, spend the bulk of their time tracking who is buying what, where, and with whose money.
Faced with the risk of losing access to the network,Russia’s government has already drafted a bill to create a new Russian system for domestic bank transfers, Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev said on Aug. 27, according to the Itar-Tass news service.SWIFT transmitted more than 21 million financial messages a day last month, facilitating payments between more than 10,500 financial institutions and corporations in 215 countries, the organization said on its website.“There’s no doubt that in the short term restricting Russian usage of SWIFT would be extremely disruptive to Russian financial and commercial activities,” said Richard Reid, a research fellow for finance and regulation at the University of Dundee in Scotland. “However, it may carry a longer-term downside, namely the likelihood that large chunks of Russian international payments flows would move to much less well monitored and measured financial channels and thus be beyond sanctions at any future point.”
Several months ago, when Russia announced the much anticipated "Holy Grail" energy deal with China, some were disappointed that despite this symbolic agreement meant to break the petrodollar's stranglehold on the rest of the world, neither Russia nor China announced payment terms to be in anything but dollars. In doing so they admitted that while both nations are eager to move away from a US Dollar reserve currency, neither is yet able to provide an alternative.This changed in late June when first Gazprom's CFO announced the gas giant was ready to settle China contracts in Yuan or Rubles, and at the same time the People's Bank of China announced that its Assistant Governor Jin Qi and Russian central bank Deputy Chairman Dmitry Skobelkin held a meeting in which they discussed cooperating on project and trade financing using local currencies. The meeting discussed cooperation in bank card, insurance and financial supervision sectors.And yet, while both sides declared their operational readiness and eagerness to bypass the dollar entirely, such plans remained purely in the arena of monetary foreplay and the long awaited first shot across the Petrodollar bow was absent.Until now.According to Russia's RIA Novosti, citing business daily Kommersant, Gazprom Neft has agreed to export 80,000 tons of oil from Novoportovskoye field in the Arctic; it will accept payment in rubles, and will also deliver oil via the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline (ESPO), accepting payment in Chinese yuan for the transfers.
* * *
As we concluded previously, these short-term 'punishments' borne of ego and bluster merely further 'isolate' the status quo from the inevitable transition...
As we concluded previously, these short-term 'punishments' borne of ego and bluster merely further 'isolate' the status quo from the inevitable transition...
Still confused? Then read "90% Of Gazprom Clients Have "De-Dollarized", Will Transact In Euro & Renminbi" for just how Gazprom set the stage for the day it finally would push the button to skip the dollar entirely. Which it just did.
In conclusion we will merely say what we have said previously, and it touches on what will be the most remarkable aspect of Obama's legacy, because while the hypocrite "progressive" president who even his own people have accused of being a "brown-faced Clinton" after selling out to Wall Street and totally wrecking US foreign policy abroad, is already the worst president in a century of US history according to public polls, the fitting epitaph will come when the president's policies put an end to dollar hegemony and end the reserve currency status of the dollar once and for all, thereby starting the rapid, and uncontrolled, collapse of the US empire. To wit:
In retrospect it will be very fitting that the crowning legacy of Obama's disastrous reign, both domestically and certainly internationally, will be to force the world's key ascendent superpowers (we certainly don't envision broke, insolvent Europe among them) to drop the Petrodollar and end the reserve status of the US currency.
As of this moment, both Russia and China have shown not only that it can be done, but it is done. Expect everyone to jump onboard the new superpower axis bandwagon soon enough.
* * *
Isolation... indeed.
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/08/august-29th-1535-utczulu-ukrainian.html
FRIDAY, AUGUST 29, 2014
August 29th 15:35 UTC/ZULU Ukrainian SITREP
The Ukrainian civil war has reached a turning point and a lot of separate facts point to this conclusion:
Military situation on the ground
The Ukies are losing, badly. All the reports from Novorussian sources agree that the Ukie forces are either surrounded or in full retreat. But Ukies sources also confirm this. In Kiev, angry demonstrations by nationalists accuse the military high command of minimizing the real casualty figures, of having abandoned the forces fighting in the Donbass. Even Oleg Liashko has stated that the Ukie forces have been "betrayed". Demonstrations have taken place in from of the Ukie General Staff which many Right Sector protesters which are demanding the creation of a "generals battalion" which would be formed of only generals who would be sent to fight personally (an excellent idea, which I fully approve of!). Others are also demanding the resignation of the Ukie Minister of Defense. Ukrainian woman are regularly stopping military convoys on the roads, often by standing or lying down in front of trucks, to prevent their men from being sent to death. Entire Ukie battalions are deserting from the front and Special Forces are sent to stop them. Apparently, the Ukie police is afraid to arrest the soldiers for desertion because of their large numbers. The city of Mariupol is now surrounded and the local political elites and SBU personnel have fled. Poroshenko cancelled his trip to Turkey and gathered his Security Council. Kolomoiski, who controls the southwestern Ukraine, did the same thing with his own Security Council (yes, since he has his own army, is also has his own security council). Tymoshenko wants the introduction of full martial law. The male population up to 60 is now conscripted (though not called up as far as I know). Iatseniuk and Poroshenko have both demanded that NATO intervene and accept the Ukraine as some special ally. In other words, all the signs are of total complete and utter panic in Kiev.
Military situation on the ground
The Ukies are losing, badly. All the reports from Novorussian sources agree that the Ukie forces are either surrounded or in full retreat. But Ukies sources also confirm this. In Kiev, angry demonstrations by nationalists accuse the military high command of minimizing the real casualty figures, of having abandoned the forces fighting in the Donbass. Even Oleg Liashko has stated that the Ukie forces have been "betrayed". Demonstrations have taken place in from of the Ukie General Staff which many Right Sector protesters which are demanding the creation of a "generals battalion" which would be formed of only generals who would be sent to fight personally (an excellent idea, which I fully approve of!). Others are also demanding the resignation of the Ukie Minister of Defense. Ukrainian woman are regularly stopping military convoys on the roads, often by standing or lying down in front of trucks, to prevent their men from being sent to death. Entire Ukie battalions are deserting from the front and Special Forces are sent to stop them. Apparently, the Ukie police is afraid to arrest the soldiers for desertion because of their large numbers. The city of Mariupol is now surrounded and the local political elites and SBU personnel have fled. Poroshenko cancelled his trip to Turkey and gathered his Security Council. Kolomoiski, who controls the southwestern Ukraine, did the same thing with his own Security Council (yes, since he has his own army, is also has his own security council). Tymoshenko wants the introduction of full martial law. The male population up to 60 is now conscripted (though not called up as far as I know). Iatseniuk and Poroshenko have both demanded that NATO intervene and accept the Ukraine as some special ally. In other words, all the signs are of total complete and utter panic in Kiev.
Political situation
Russia: Putin met with Poroshenko and the EU leaders and delivered them a very simple yet stark message: "don't talk to us, we are not a party to the conflict - talk to the Novorussians". By the way, the Kremlin now openly speaks of "Novorussian" and "Novorussian forces". Furthermore, the Russians are also officially sending in a second aid convoy and they have announced that this will not be the only one. In the UN Security Council the Russian Representative, Vitalii Churkin, has dared the Ukie Rep to explain where the recording of the conversations between the Kiev ATC and MH17 were hidden and why. With the Fall rapidly arriving, the EU has pushed Kiev to renew gas negotiations which the Russians have declared "deadlocked". By all accounts, the "Voentorg" (a Russian contraction meaning "Military Trade", which was the name for the Soviet era building were military gear could be purchased) between Russia and Novorussia has further increased and the Novorussian are now getting more men, including specialists, and more equipment.
Contrary to the predictions of the Putin bashing crowd, the replacement of Strelkov by Zakharchenko was not followed by any "sellout" of Novorussia. Quite to the contrary, as soon as Zakharchenko took power the Novorussians went on a general offensive. As for Strelkov himself, he is apparently in good health and is supposed to make a public appearance today in Crimea. So all that talk about Putin backstabbing Novorussia, him having some kind of deal with Obama, about Strelkov having been eliminated by Putin's Spetsnaz and all the rest of the doom and gloom propaganda of the Putin haters has now clearly shown to be absolute rubbish. Clearly, some Putin bashers are paid by Russian oligarchs, others are just to dull to understand the sophisticated policy of the Kremlin in the Ukraine. Whatever may be the case, these shrills are now completely discredited by fact and forced to walk away in shame.
Putin's latest move is nothing short of brilliant. Think of it: the mothers and wives of Ukie servicemen are demanding that their men be returned to them, the regime in Kiev ignores them, and Putin steps in to agree with them and asks the Novorussians to open humanitarian corridors to allow them to safely leave and go back home. Thus, he shows more concern for the Ukies than the Ukie regime, he encourages the desertion of Ukie soliders, he minimizes the casualties on all sides, and he deals another death-blow to Ukie morale. Best of all, he achieves all this by a simple statement written in such a way that nobody can possibly condemn him for anything. As for the Novorussians, Zakharchenko has already agreed, but on the condition that the Ukies leave behind all their heavy weapons and the ammo for it. Perfect. Needless to say, the Ukie high command has rejected the offer and ordered the surrounded units to break out guns blazing. Just imagine how that response feels to the relatives of those stuck in the various "cauldrons"!
The EU: the EU is totally stuck. Apparently, the chaos in Banderastan combined with the Russian sanctions and the gas crisis is gradually having an effect in the dull brains of the Eurobureaucrats who are coming to realize that they have been at least as stupid as the Ukies and that the US has used them for their own imperial goals. "Fuck the EU" indeed. Badly. The best these hapless bureaucrats could do is to go to Minsk and agree to negotiate with Russia the terms under which the Ukraine would ratify the Agreement with the EU. Exactly that which Russia had been demanding from Day 1 and which the EU had always been contemptuously rejecting with the arrogant "none of your business" reply. Now Ashton and a few others had to eat humble pie and kindly ask the Russian to come and talk to them.
The US: Poor Uncle Sam is really looking pathetic, foolish and confused. The very best the USA can do is to accuse Russia of invading the Ukraine and only threaten more sanctions as Obama has already admitted that the US has no military option in the Ukraine. To measure the degree of disarray amongst the US Neocons I will just quote from an article written recently by Herbert E. Meyer, former Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council during the Reagan Administration, for American Thinker and modestly entitled "How to Solve the Putin Problem". Here is what this genius came up with:
Where do we go from here?
It' hard to tell. I think that Oleg Tsarev is right when he says that as soon as the Ukie regime begins collapsing the West will suddenly ask for negotiations. Zakharchenko in his crucial press conference has clearly indicated that options such as federalization or decentralization are off the table and that nothing short of full independence will do. Maybe. Maybe not. There are plenty of historical examples which show that separatist movements eventually settled for less, often wisely so. But in this case, we are dealing with several intertwined problems:
a) Geographical: the Ukraine is an artificial country
b) Political: internally the regime in Kiev is Nazi
c) Geo-strategic: externally the regime in Kiev is a russophobic US puppet
d) Economic: the Ukraine is economically dead
All these factors clearly point to the same conclusion: the Ukraine needs to be broken-up. This might happen catastrophically - the East going to Novorussia, the South to Kolomoiski, the Center to Poroshenko and the West breaking off completely. There are some signs that this is already gradually happening. Furthermore, this is all made worse by the undeniable fact that the Ukraine is already a failed state and that a sizable minority of the Ukrainian population is formed of truly rabid nationalists. So right now things don't look too good for any negotiated solution. Novorussia probably has the potential to rebuild and to become a more or less livable, stable place: most of its industry is in ruins, but it's "human capital", it's people, are very bright and hard working and its political leaders clearly capable people. But short of some kind of miracle, the rest of the Ukraine is probably going to slouch to towards the kind of mess the USA is so good at leaving behind in places like Libya or Iraq. Maybe not, maybe the Europeans will finally grow a spine and tell the US to stay out and then try to solve this ugly mess with Russia. I am not holding my breath, not as long as the current AngloZionist nomenklatura is in power in the EU.
One thing could possibly change this downward spiral: a regime change in Kiev. I don't mean one replacing Poroshenko by Liashko or Iarosh, but an anti-Nazi insurrection or coup. I will be honest with you, with kind of terror the SBU and the oligarchs are capable of meting out to the general public, this is not very likely. But who knows what might happen on a wave of popular discontent? If the current freaks could be kicked out by halfway sane people and a process of denazification initiated, then maybe something could still be salvaged? Again, I am not very hopeful. But let's stick to current events.
Current situation
I would say that things look better right now than ever before. This is far, far from over, and many things could go wrong but at least at this moment in time things look pretty good. Short of a sudden reversal, the cities of Lugansk and Donetsk are probably going to be freed from most of the shelling within 10-14 days. Currently, the Novorussians control the entire border between Russia and Novorussia, which makes the Voentorg much easier. Zakharchenko and his men seem to be making an excellent job and rumor has it that Strelkov will be back soon in some special capacity. The Novorussian leadership and the Kremlin are clearly on the same wavelength and there is no reason to suspect an over Russian military intervention. I am confident that the Black Sea Fleet will do what is needed to keep the Novorussian coast safe so as long as the Ukies are not able to mount a surprise attack from the North, Mariupol will probably fall very soon. There are increasing reports of partisan movements in Zaporozhie and that, if true, is something very interesting which might begin to affect other areas and cities such as Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk. I still don't see Novorussian tanks headed for Kiev, but an operational success seems to be in the making right at this moment in time.
I am by character, education and trade a rather cautious person, but today I am cautiously optimistic, at least for Novorussia.
The Saker
Post Scriptum: this just in from a good friend:
DPR
- Volnovakha taken by Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF); South-Western Cauldron closed off.
- Yalta (near Mariupol) taken, NAF is now 12 km away from Mariupol.
- Mariupol - Zaporozhye (Berdyansk) road closed off by NAF. Virtually all settlements around Mariupol appear to be taken by NAF. Mariupol Cauldron closed off.
- Fighting has crossed the border into Zaporozhye. Saboteur-Reconnaissance Groups (SRG) and guerrillas active inside Zaporozhye’s borders.
- Ukrainian punitive forces surrendering in the many cauldrons, the rate of surrenders is picking up pace.
- NAF is pushing outward toward Yasinovataya, Maryinka, Karlovka, Krasnogorovka (west of Donetsk)
AND, the BIGGEST (albeit not fully confirmed) NEWS: Donetsk Airport taken by NAF today.
LPR
- Lutugino partially controlled by the Militia, very heavy urban combat there, although Rodakovo was lost (plans to retake it shortly).
- Lyashko appears to be still trapped in Severodonetsk, which is besieged by Mozgovoi’s Brigade (I have no further information since a couple of days ago).
- LPR has encircled Shchastye and Metallist and is advancing on the Ukrainian positions there, as well as in the north-eastern direction (Stanitsa Luganskaya, which still remains contested).
- NAF continues to advance on Deblatsevo, taking checkpoints on the outskirts of the city.
- LPR is planning some major advances in the next few days, hopefully to clean up most of the remaining cauldrons.
PPS: and this from Russia Today:
Poland has refused overflight rights to the plane of Russia’s defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, who was on his way from Slovakia, RIA Novosti’s correspondent reported. The plane has landed in Bratislava.
The minister was returning from the celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the Slovakian national uprising that took place in the town of Banská Bystrica.
However, Poland banned entrance into its airspace for the Tu-154 plane, according to a RIA Novosti correspondent who was on board, citing one of the crewmembers.
The plane had to take a U-turn and landed in Bratislava an hour later.
Negotiations are being held on the matter at the moment. All the passengers are now on board the plane.
Comment: rather petty and infantile behavior in my opinion. This really begs the question of what the Poles think that they will achieve with this other than the dubious honor of "servicing" Uncle Sam once more (those who follow Polish politics will know what I mean).
Russia: Putin met with Poroshenko and the EU leaders and delivered them a very simple yet stark message: "don't talk to us, we are not a party to the conflict - talk to the Novorussians". By the way, the Kremlin now openly speaks of "Novorussian" and "Novorussian forces". Furthermore, the Russians are also officially sending in a second aid convoy and they have announced that this will not be the only one. In the UN Security Council the Russian Representative, Vitalii Churkin, has dared the Ukie Rep to explain where the recording of the conversations between the Kiev ATC and MH17 were hidden and why. With the Fall rapidly arriving, the EU has pushed Kiev to renew gas negotiations which the Russians have declared "deadlocked". By all accounts, the "Voentorg" (a Russian contraction meaning "Military Trade", which was the name for the Soviet era building were military gear could be purchased) between Russia and Novorussia has further increased and the Novorussian are now getting more men, including specialists, and more equipment.
Contrary to the predictions of the Putin bashing crowd, the replacement of Strelkov by Zakharchenko was not followed by any "sellout" of Novorussia. Quite to the contrary, as soon as Zakharchenko took power the Novorussians went on a general offensive. As for Strelkov himself, he is apparently in good health and is supposed to make a public appearance today in Crimea. So all that talk about Putin backstabbing Novorussia, him having some kind of deal with Obama, about Strelkov having been eliminated by Putin's Spetsnaz and all the rest of the doom and gloom propaganda of the Putin haters has now clearly shown to be absolute rubbish. Clearly, some Putin bashers are paid by Russian oligarchs, others are just to dull to understand the sophisticated policy of the Kremlin in the Ukraine. Whatever may be the case, these shrills are now completely discredited by fact and forced to walk away in shame.
Putin's latest move is nothing short of brilliant. Think of it: the mothers and wives of Ukie servicemen are demanding that their men be returned to them, the regime in Kiev ignores them, and Putin steps in to agree with them and asks the Novorussians to open humanitarian corridors to allow them to safely leave and go back home. Thus, he shows more concern for the Ukies than the Ukie regime, he encourages the desertion of Ukie soliders, he minimizes the casualties on all sides, and he deals another death-blow to Ukie morale. Best of all, he achieves all this by a simple statement written in such a way that nobody can possibly condemn him for anything. As for the Novorussians, Zakharchenko has already agreed, but on the condition that the Ukies leave behind all their heavy weapons and the ammo for it. Perfect. Needless to say, the Ukie high command has rejected the offer and ordered the surrounded units to break out guns blazing. Just imagine how that response feels to the relatives of those stuck in the various "cauldrons"!
The EU: the EU is totally stuck. Apparently, the chaos in Banderastan combined with the Russian sanctions and the gas crisis is gradually having an effect in the dull brains of the Eurobureaucrats who are coming to realize that they have been at least as stupid as the Ukies and that the US has used them for their own imperial goals. "Fuck the EU" indeed. Badly. The best these hapless bureaucrats could do is to go to Minsk and agree to negotiate with Russia the terms under which the Ukraine would ratify the Agreement with the EU. Exactly that which Russia had been demanding from Day 1 and which the EU had always been contemptuously rejecting with the arrogant "none of your business" reply. Now Ashton and a few others had to eat humble pie and kindly ask the Russian to come and talk to them.
The US: Poor Uncle Sam is really looking pathetic, foolish and confused. The very best the USA can do is to accuse Russia of invading the Ukraine and only threaten more sanctions as Obama has already admitted that the US has no military option in the Ukraine. To measure the degree of disarray amongst the US Neocons I will just quote from an article written recently by Herbert E. Meyer, former Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council during the Reagan Administration, for American Thinker and modestly entitled "How to Solve the Putin Problem". Here is what this genius came up with:
Since subtlety doesn’t work with Russians, the president and his European counterparts should also make absolutely clear that we have no interest whatever in how these people (the Russian oligarchs) solve their Putin problem. If they can talk good old Vladimir into leaving the Kremlin with full military honors and a 21-gun salute -- that would be fine with us. If Putin is too too stubborn to acknowledge that his career is over, and the only way to get him out of the Kremlin is feet-first, with a bullet hole in the back of his head -- that would also be okay with us.I don't know if Mr. Meyer thinks that Mrs Nuland delivering cookies on the Maidan was the subtlety the Russian did not appreciate or understand, or if his own article is an expression of US subtlety, but he clearly has "Pat Robertson moment" (the latter wanted the US to kill Hugo Chavez) which just proves that the AngloZionists don't have a diplomacy as such and that magical thinking is a key coping mechanism when that lack of diplomacy becomes obvious.
Nor would we object to a bit of poetic justice.... For instance, if the next time Putin’s flying back to Moscow from yet another visit with his good friends in Cuba, or Venezuela, or Iran, his airplane gets blasted out of the sky by some murky para-military group that somehow, inexplicably, got its hands on a surface-to-air missile
Where do we go from here?
It' hard to tell. I think that Oleg Tsarev is right when he says that as soon as the Ukie regime begins collapsing the West will suddenly ask for negotiations. Zakharchenko in his crucial press conference has clearly indicated that options such as federalization or decentralization are off the table and that nothing short of full independence will do. Maybe. Maybe not. There are plenty of historical examples which show that separatist movements eventually settled for less, often wisely so. But in this case, we are dealing with several intertwined problems:
a) Geographical: the Ukraine is an artificial country
b) Political: internally the regime in Kiev is Nazi
c) Geo-strategic: externally the regime in Kiev is a russophobic US puppet
d) Economic: the Ukraine is economically dead
All these factors clearly point to the same conclusion: the Ukraine needs to be broken-up. This might happen catastrophically - the East going to Novorussia, the South to Kolomoiski, the Center to Poroshenko and the West breaking off completely. There are some signs that this is already gradually happening. Furthermore, this is all made worse by the undeniable fact that the Ukraine is already a failed state and that a sizable minority of the Ukrainian population is formed of truly rabid nationalists. So right now things don't look too good for any negotiated solution. Novorussia probably has the potential to rebuild and to become a more or less livable, stable place: most of its industry is in ruins, but it's "human capital", it's people, are very bright and hard working and its political leaders clearly capable people. But short of some kind of miracle, the rest of the Ukraine is probably going to slouch to towards the kind of mess the USA is so good at leaving behind in places like Libya or Iraq. Maybe not, maybe the Europeans will finally grow a spine and tell the US to stay out and then try to solve this ugly mess with Russia. I am not holding my breath, not as long as the current AngloZionist nomenklatura is in power in the EU.
One thing could possibly change this downward spiral: a regime change in Kiev. I don't mean one replacing Poroshenko by Liashko or Iarosh, but an anti-Nazi insurrection or coup. I will be honest with you, with kind of terror the SBU and the oligarchs are capable of meting out to the general public, this is not very likely. But who knows what might happen on a wave of popular discontent? If the current freaks could be kicked out by halfway sane people and a process of denazification initiated, then maybe something could still be salvaged? Again, I am not very hopeful. But let's stick to current events.
Current situation
I would say that things look better right now than ever before. This is far, far from over, and many things could go wrong but at least at this moment in time things look pretty good. Short of a sudden reversal, the cities of Lugansk and Donetsk are probably going to be freed from most of the shelling within 10-14 days. Currently, the Novorussians control the entire border between Russia and Novorussia, which makes the Voentorg much easier. Zakharchenko and his men seem to be making an excellent job and rumor has it that Strelkov will be back soon in some special capacity. The Novorussian leadership and the Kremlin are clearly on the same wavelength and there is no reason to suspect an over Russian military intervention. I am confident that the Black Sea Fleet will do what is needed to keep the Novorussian coast safe so as long as the Ukies are not able to mount a surprise attack from the North, Mariupol will probably fall very soon. There are increasing reports of partisan movements in Zaporozhie and that, if true, is something very interesting which might begin to affect other areas and cities such as Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk. I still don't see Novorussian tanks headed for Kiev, but an operational success seems to be in the making right at this moment in time.
I am by character, education and trade a rather cautious person, but today I am cautiously optimistic, at least for Novorussia.
The Saker
Post Scriptum: this just in from a good friend:
DPR
- Volnovakha taken by Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF); South-Western Cauldron closed off.
- Yalta (near Mariupol) taken, NAF is now 12 km away from Mariupol.
- Mariupol - Zaporozhye (Berdyansk) road closed off by NAF. Virtually all settlements around Mariupol appear to be taken by NAF. Mariupol Cauldron closed off.
- Fighting has crossed the border into Zaporozhye. Saboteur-Reconnaissance Groups (SRG) and guerrillas active inside Zaporozhye’s borders.
- Ukrainian punitive forces surrendering in the many cauldrons, the rate of surrenders is picking up pace.
- NAF is pushing outward toward Yasinovataya, Maryinka, Karlovka, Krasnogorovka (west of Donetsk)
AND, the BIGGEST (albeit not fully confirmed) NEWS: Donetsk Airport taken by NAF today.
LPR
- Lutugino partially controlled by the Militia, very heavy urban combat there, although Rodakovo was lost (plans to retake it shortly).
- Lyashko appears to be still trapped in Severodonetsk, which is besieged by Mozgovoi’s Brigade (I have no further information since a couple of days ago).
- LPR has encircled Shchastye and Metallist and is advancing on the Ukrainian positions there, as well as in the north-eastern direction (Stanitsa Luganskaya, which still remains contested).
- NAF continues to advance on Deblatsevo, taking checkpoints on the outskirts of the city.
- LPR is planning some major advances in the next few days, hopefully to clean up most of the remaining cauldrons.
PPS: and this from Russia Today:
Poland has refused overflight rights to the plane of Russia’s defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, who was on his way from Slovakia, RIA Novosti’s correspondent reported. The plane has landed in Bratislava.
The minister was returning from the celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the Slovakian national uprising that took place in the town of Banská Bystrica.
However, Poland banned entrance into its airspace for the Tu-154 plane, according to a RIA Novosti correspondent who was on board, citing one of the crewmembers.
The plane had to take a U-turn and landed in Bratislava an hour later.
Negotiations are being held on the matter at the moment. All the passengers are now on board the plane.
Comment: rather petty and infantile behavior in my opinion. This really begs the question of what the Poles think that they will achieve with this other than the dubious honor of "servicing" Uncle Sam once more (those who follow Polish politics will know what I mean).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-29/putin-says-everything-us-touches-turns-out-libya-or-iraq
Putin Says Everything U.S. Touches Turns Out Like Libya Or Iraq
Having been quiet for a few days, comfortable sitting back and watching NATO, Europe, and the US escalate each other's talking points to a frenzy of populist revolt, Russia's Vladimir Putin has come out swinging this morning:
- *PUTIN: NO MATTER WHAT U.S. DOES, IT TURNS OUT LIKE LIBYA, IRAQ
- *PUTIN SAYS UN CAN'T BE FOREIGN POLICY TOOL FOR U.S., ALLIES
- *PUTIN: EUROPEAN LEADERS FAR FROM SHOWING INDEPENDENT THINKING
- *PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA IS COUNTRY THAT DOESN'T FEAR ANYTHING
In addition to discussions of The Bolsheviks, agreeing Stalin was a tyrant, and slamming liberal economic models for creating crises, Putin notes his approval rating is high because "he is confident he's right."
Some more fun soundbites:
- *PUTIN SAYS BOLSHEVIKS BETRAYED NATIONAL INTERESTS IN WWI
- *PUTIN SAYS UNFORTUNATELY SUCH PEOPLE IN RUSSIA TODAY
- *PUTIN SAYS LIBERAL ECONOMIC MODEL LEADS TO BUILDUP OF CRISES
- *PUTIN SAYS NOBODY DENIES STALIN WAS A TYRANT
- *PUTIN SAYS LEADERS WIN SUPPORT BY BEING CONFIDENT THEY'RE RIGHT
- *PUTIN: FIGHTS AT UN SOMETIMES FIERCER THAN DURING COLD WAR
- *PUTIN SAYS UNITED NATIONS NOT ALWAYS EFFECTIVE
And perhaps of most note... just as Obama pronounced yesterday that US would not engage militarily:
- *PUTIN: RUSSIA FAR AWAY FROM BEING SUCKED IN GLOBAL CONFLICT
But...
- *PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA IS NUCLEAR POWER, STRENGTHENING CAPABILITIES
- *PUTIN: RUSSIA STRENGTHENS ARSENAL TO FEEL SAFE, NOT THREATEN
- *PUTIN: DON'T THINK ANYONE SEEKS LARGE-SCALE CONFLICT W/ RUSSIA
* * *
So - just like the Cold War - military build-up on either side and constant escalation in tensions...
http://rt.com/news/eastern-ukraine-army-operation-680/
Friday, August 29
12:13 GMT:
The second shipment of Russian humanitarian aid for eastern Ukraine may be delivered by rail in the next 10 days, Interfax reported Friday, citing the Ukrainian authorities. “As the Russian side has proposed, railway transport may deliver [another humanitarian convoy] ,” Anatoly Makarenko, deputy head of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, told journalists. “The recipient should be the Red Cross, as has been agreed,” he said.
10:35 GMT:
The Ukrainian Parliament will consider a law that may allow Ukraine join NATO.“Following the decision of Ukraine’s Security Council, the Cabinet of Ministers is introducing a law that cancels the non-aligned status of Ukraine and restores its NATO membership policy,” Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Friday.
The issue of Ukraine’s NATO membership reveals the division between the country’s regions. While the east of the country sees it as a threat to the country’ sovereignty, it is regarded as a chance for integration into the Euro-Atlantic area by the western part of the country.
03:37 GMT:
The possibility of further sanctions on Russia will be discussed at a European Union summit on Saturday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.
"We are getting reports of an increased presence of Russian soldiers and of new unrest and fresh advances of the separatists in areas that until now were very quiet," she said.
"We made it clear in March this year that if there were a further escalation, more sanctions would have to be discussed. So the issue will be on the agenda at the summit and we will have to ask ourselves how we will react,” Merkel added.
02:58 GMT:
The central headquarters of the anti-Kiev forces has expressed its support for Putin's initiative to open a humanitarian corridor, provided that the troops disarm.
“We support the initiative of Russian President Vladimir Putin to create a humanitarian corridor to create a safe passage for the surrounded armed forces of Ukraine. We are ready to ensure the safety of the Ukrainian troops out of the encirclement under one condition – they have to go through the established corridor without weapons,” the anti-Kiev army press service said in a statement.
The prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Aleksandr Zakharchenko elaborated, saying that “Ukrainian forces have to abandon heavy weaponry and ammunition, so they cannot be reused against us [anti-Kiev forces].”
02:31 GMT:
The National Security Council of Ukraine has decided to resume conscription for military service in the autumn of this year, the deputy secretary of the NSDC Mikhail Koval announced.
"The Council has already decided this fall to renew the call for military service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine," he said at a press briefing on Thursday after a meeting of the National Security Council.
In this case, Koval said, new conscripts are not required to perform combat missions in the area of military operations in the east.
01:34 GMT:
It makes no sense to comment in detail on the satellite imagery released by NATO as “proof” of Russia’s military involvement in Ukraine, Defense Ministry’s spokesman said, pointing out that even high NATO officials were hesitant to put their names on it.
“You know, it has become ridiculous… If earlier, someone would at least put their names on those images, be it Breedlove, Rasmussen, or even Lungescu, now, they are hesitant,” Konashenkov said as cited by RIA Novosti. “It makes no sense to seriously comment on this,” Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman Major-General Igor Konashenkov said as he ridiculed the so-called NATO proof.
00:41 GMT:
Ukraine has asked the United States to provide special NATO ally status outside the alliance, said National Security and Defense Council Deputy Secretary Mickhail Koval after an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.
"Our country is counting on help from the United States, in particular, by providing a special status of the main ally of the United States of America outside of NATO,” Koval said, RIA Novosti reports.
Russia Today.....
UN: Ukraine conflict death toll hits 2,600, civilians ‘trapped inside conflict zones’
At least 2,593 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since the start of the Kiev’s military operation against anti-government forces there started in mid-April, according to a new estimate by the Office of the UN High Commissioner on Human Rights.
The death toll includes civilians, members of the Ukrainian troops and also fighters in the anti-government forces.
"The trend is clear and alarming. There is a significant increase in the death toll in the east," Ivan Simonovic, U.N. Assistant Secretary General for Human Rights, told journalists.
"The current number of killed is 2,593 - close to 3,000 if we include the 298 victims of the MH17 (Malaysian airliner) plane crash," he said.
"The current number of killed is 2,593 - close to 3,000 if we include the 298 victims of the MH17 (Malaysian airliner) plane crash," he said.
The report, issued on Friday, August 29, 2014, and covering the period July 16 to August 17, condemns the killing and wounding of civilians in urban areas, which have lately turned into battlefields.
/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/675508/New_Russia_on_territory_of_Ukraine.0.png)
No comments:
Post a Comment