Monday, August 25, 2014

Ukraine Updates ( August 25 , 2014 ) --- Bankrupt Ukraine Announces $3 Billion Increase in Military Spending Nation Announces 62% Budget Hike ....... Lavrov: Russia to send another humanitarian convoy to Ukraine ..... News from the Battlefield in South East Ukraine ( Counterattack to be launched by Federalists ? ) Russia Finance Ministry supports sanctions hit Russian Banks ......... Natural Gas battles between Russia and Ukraine , items of note

August 25, 2014

Ukraine: Economy Declines, Merkel Sues For Peace

Recent statistics show that the already decaying Ukrainian economy is further turning towards depression. New money from IMF loans, if granted, will solely go into military costs. The European Union will not bail out Ukraine and Germany, hurt by Russian counter-sanctions, is suing for peace with Russia.

Nulandistan's wheels are falling off and no one one will help to repair it.
According to the Ukrainian government statistics production in July 2014 decrease compared to July 2013 (both ex-Crimea). Mining of coal and lignite was only 71% of its former numbers. Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products was 84% of its 2013 value. Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 77% and natural gas production and distribution was 78% of its 2013 number. As the government's fight  against the people in Ukraine's industrial heartland continues these numbers will continue to go down.
Ukraine's standard of living did not, unlike in Russia, significantly increase over the last 20 years. Since the beginning of the year inflation increased to 19% and the Ukrainian central bank had to raise interest rates from 6.5% at the beginning of 2014 to 17.5% now. This to support the value of the Ukrainian currency as the hryvnya has fallen 40% since early 2014. 

The banking system is coming apart:
The ratio of banks’ non-performing loans will reach 30 percent this year as credit costs rise, Moody’s Investors Service predicted in a May report.
Ukraine’s lenders are already in a precarious position, according to the IMF, which estimates that the nation’s biggest 22 banks would require fresh capital of as much as 5 percent of gross domestic product if the hryvnia averages 12.5 per dollar this year.
The Ukraine is now requesting a third and fourth tranche of an IMF loan but the $2.2 billion it expects to receive is about as much as it plans to additionally spend for military operations. Under the conditions of the new IMF loans Ukraine's standard of living will decrease further and poverty will rise.

Some delusional minds in Kiev may hope that the EU will hand them some money. That is not going to happen. EU economies ex Germany are in serious trouble and Germany is not eager to help either:
There is precious little enthusiasm among the German public for bailout of other Eurozone members. The idea that Germany will consent to spending tens of billions of dollars rebuilding Eastern Ukraine is completely and totally divorced from political reality. Can anyone seriously imagine Angela Merkel, whose country recently had its 2014 growth estimate downgraded to a mere 1.5%, going in front of the German public to demand a substantial outlay for Ukrainian infrastructure? It would be political suicide, and Merkel is clearly a clever enough politician to understand this.
The German government had to cut is GDP forecast because of the insecurity the sanction back and forth with Russia introduced into businesses. The issue will clearly hurt her in the polls. That is likely why she is sending peace signals to Russia:
[Merkel] mentioned Ukrainian “decentralisation”, a deal on gas prices, and Ukraine’s “trade relations” with Russia as elements that could bring about an accord [between Ukraine and Russia].
"I want to find a way, as many others do, which does not damage Russia. We [Germany] want to have good trade relations with Russia as well. We want reasonable relations with Russia. We are depending on one another and there are so many other conflicts in the world where we should work together, so I hope we can make progress”.
This also from an interview Merkel gave to public German TV yesterday:
A solution must be found to the Ukraine crisis that does not hurt Russia and which the Ukrainian people must choose for themselves, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Sunday.
"There must be dialogue. There can only be a political solution. There won't be a military solution to this conflict," she said.
On Saturday, her vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel had suggested that establishing a federal Ukraine was the only viable solution to the crisis pitting Kiev against pro-Russian separatists.Merkel said that if Ukraine opted to rejoin the Eurasian Union with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, then Europe would not make "a huge conflict" out of it.
Especially the last point is clearly a big step back from the earlier all out "Ukraine is EU" position.
Additionally to the economic side, pressure on Merkel also grows because there is more and more doubt, even in German mainstream media, about the veracity of the Ukrainian propaganda and about the destruction of flight MH17. Why is there is no news about it? Is there a coverup (in German)?

The wheels are coming off in Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland's new Ukraine. Her project of capturing Ukraine from Russia while letting the EU pay for it is not going as planned. The likely result of Nuland's coup in Kiev will be a destroyed Ukrainian economy and no winner at all.

( FWIW .. )

August 26th combat SITREP by Juan + two very different maps :-)

1. The situation has improved in Novorossiya but is still quite serious. The enemy still has an overwhelming advantage in hardware and men and in some instances shows they know how to use that preponderance.

2. As the Army of Novorossiya goes about it's task of freeing cities, towns and villages they are followed by what relief is available for the newly freed citizens. Also in the follow up are trained investigators who have been keeping detailed records and evidence of the depredations of the occupying forces. While the hanging tree will not be used, there is no doubt that some of the occupiers will be in prison for a long time.

3. The rumors of a large USA tank force in the Talakivka area are false.

4. The relief column of humanitarian aid sent to Lugansk City was welcome. It is of vast interest that USA and EU have warned RF not to do it again. Perhaps when the war is over some of those western political types should be brought to Novorossiya (preferably in chains) to explain to the citizens why they should be denied aid under the remorseless bombardments of the Ukeland army.

5. The new Cauldron in south central liberated territory of Novorossiya is being steadily reduced. The occupants have been given the choice of surrender themselves and their equipment or die. At the moment their commanders have chosen that they die. Of interest is the units trapped in the cauldron are the ones whose depredations against the innocent civilians are well documented as being the worst.

6. The rumors that Poroshenko will surrender today are false. He is still extolling his 'peace plan' of the Army of Novorossiya lays down their arms, gets investigated by Ukeland, anyone suspected of crimes against Ukeland will be imprisoned, and then he will negotiate.

7. The airfields in Donetsk City proper and Lugansk City proper have not been assaulted beyond bombardments as of 05:00 this morning. Both are honeycombed with underground service passageways and will be expensive in manpower to take by force. Perhaps the answer is to simply drive the Ukes underground, bring in truckloads of stone to seal all the exits but one and wait them out. The one exit will be their portal of surrender.

8. Mariupol was handed to the Ukes some months ago in a deal with Ahkmetov. It was to Mariupol that all the previous Uke administrations of Novorossiya fled at the beginning of the conflict with their underlings, many bringing their entire families and hangers on. The city was also the rear base of many of the oligarch's private 'battalions', a rest and replenish area thought to be totally secure. It has been known for months that there was no real security in the area for the Ukes, in other words the entire area was wide open. The attack south along the RF border then turning west along the coast toward Mariupol was a masterpiece of deception, tactics and strategy. The flight in panic of all the golden pheasants and their minions was and is epic. Their flight is spreading worry and in some instances panic as far away as Melitopol and Kerson to the south and Dnepropetrovsk to the northeast of Novorossiya.

9. Partizan activities are increasing in frequency and force in the Kharkov and Slavyansk areas to the point Kharkov is building defenses facing Novorossiya. Of particular interest was the capture two weeks ago of an entire Kamaz load of Javelin antitank missiles. These missiles were offloaded from the 'Canadian' air force planes that brought 'non lethal' aid to the Uke army according to eye witnesses. The Javelin is not listed in the TOE (Table of Organization and Equipment) of the armed forces of Canada, although I have few doubts that oversight will be rectified within minutes of this report being read in The West.

10. The entire Uke force of airworthy air assets has now been shot down one and a half times. To qualify that statement, one should remember that when Belbek Aerodrome north of Sevastopol was taken there were 5 airframes of 43 on base that were airworthy, one of which was a trainer. This is indicative of the condition of the entire Uke armed forces. The problem with this fact is where are the units coming from that are being used by the Ukes? The answer is Germany, Poland and Czech are still supplying the ukes with equipment and aircraft from their stocks of equipment left from 'the old days'. Those 3 countries are also supplying the ukes with T 72 main battle tanks in pristine condition and other AFV's. Most of the Uke T 72's were sold off and exported during the Yushenko/Tymoshenko regime. Reports of crews and maintenance personnel provided with the equipment are not 100% verified.

11. The persistent reports from Ukeland of RF columns of tanks and AFV's entering Ukeland are false as are the Uke statements of the destruction of these columns. There will be no entry of RF forces in to Novorossiya nor will there be an invasion of Ukeland by RF, wishful thinking be damned. If RF was to invade she would not send half a Rota of armor, she would send half a dozen tank armies.

12. The massive destruction of cities, towns and villages of Novorossiya is ongoing. Every day and every night the bombardments continue. Civilian areas are mainly the targets. The destruction has been carefully planned and executed. The damage is in the many billions of euros and will take years to repair. The loss of life and injuries to the innocent civilians well exceeds 5,000 since the beginning of the war in April. The time for negotiations with Ukeland are long gone. The war will end when every single occupier of Novorossiya land from Ukeland is either ejected, in a POW camp or dead. Fact. 

-------addendum from the Saker-------

Map of Operations, August 10-25, 2014 – Created by Kot Ivanov and Anthony Hartin

compare with BBC map:

Hilarious, no?

The Saker

Tweets on the status of fighting , different point of view from mainstream media....

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: 7,000 Trapped Ukrainian Forces; IMF to Fund Ukraine Wars? via

Mish's Global Economic Analysis: Rebels Claim Liberation of Mariupol Imminent: War Zone Map Update A... via

Ukraine President Dissolves Parliament, Announces It On Twitter

Tyler Durden's picture

Last week we were intrigued when the Ukraine Central Bank announced its FX market intervention plans not via 'trader sources" or Bloomberg but through its Facebook account (which later failed as the Hryvnia pushed on to record lows). Today, we hear perhaps even more important news - that Ukraine President Poroshenko has dissolved parliament. This was not entirely surprising news givenrecent political breakdowns but his chosen medium to disseminate this crucial (and potentiall detsabilizing) news... his Twitter account.
The crucial Twitter account to follow for all Ukrainians...

Bloomberg notes:

Ukrainian President Decides To Dissolve Parliament – Spokesman

Topic: Situation in the South-East of Ukraine

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko decided to dissolve the country’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada.
00:11 26/08/2014
Tags: parliamentary electionsVerkhovna RadaSvyatoslav TsegolkoPetro PoroshenkoUkraine
KIEV, August 25 (RIA Novosti) – UkrainianPresident Petro Poroshenko has decided to dissolve the country’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, his spokesman Svyatoslav Tsegolko said on Monday.
“The majority of these lawmakers passed dictatorship laws that claimed the lives of the Heavenly Hundred [a term denoting activists killed during pro-European protests in the fall and winter of 2013–2014]. They must answer for this,” Tsegolko wrote in his official Twitter account.
The spokesman quoted the president as saying that “it was the only decision that is correct and responsible.”
The president said the new parliamentary elections in Ukraine will take place on October 26.
A 30-day deadline, set for the Verkhovna Rada to form a new coalition, expired earlier on Sunday, which formally paved the way for the president to announce the dissolution of the country’s parliament.
Following his election in May 25 Poroshenko has repeatedly highlighted the necessity to hold early parliamentary elections saying the current composition failed to meet the interests of the Ukrainian society.
The current parliament was elected in fall 2012. In accordance with Ukraine’s law, the next parliamentary election was supposed to take place in 2017.

Anti War....

Bankrupt Ukraine Announces $3 Billion Increase in Military Spending

Nation Announces 62% Budget Hike

by Jason Ditz, August 24, 2014
Citing what he called the “constant military threat” the nation feels from Russia, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced a $3 billion increase in Ukraine’s military spending today.
Where Ukraine is going to come up with an extra $3 billion is totally unclear, as the nation is constantly on the brink of bankruptcy, and just had to get a multi-billion dollar bailout to avoid a default.
$3 billion may not sound like much, to those used to discussing US military budgets in the many hundreds of billions, but for Ukraine, it represents a 62% increase on their $4.8 billion annual budget.
Costs of the military are no doubt on the rise with the invasion of the east, but with Ukraine literally unable to pay their gas bill, and winter just a few short months away, it seems difficult to sell the idea that more military spending was the truly pressing need.

Lavrov: Russia to send another humanitarian convoy to Ukraine

Published time: August 25, 2014 08:16
Edited time: August 25, 2014 10:43

A Russian convoy of trucks carrying humanitarian aid for Ukraine is parked at a camp in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Region, August 18, 2014.(Reuters / Alexander Demianchuk)
A Russian convoy of trucks carrying humanitarian aid for Ukraine is parked at a camp in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Region, August 18, 2014.(Reuters / Alexander Demianchuk)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has announced plans for a second humanitarian convoy to be sent to eastern Ukraine, urging all foreign actors and agencies to participate.
Failure to do so would constitute a violation of international law, he warned.
“Anyone in need of aid shall receive it,” the FM said, stressing that it is important to learn from the mistakes of the first attempt and to look forward to closer cooperation with the Ukrainian authorities this time around.
He stressed that as the indiscriminate shelling of areas such as Lugansk continues, the humanitarian need for water and food grows. This has been acknowledged by humanitarian agencies and itnernational actors at large.
The distribution of aid is currently underway, and is headed by the ICRC.
The FM also added that the shelling of schools, hospitals, kindergartens and other vulnerable institutions and structures can no longer be excused by claims of “wrongful shooting” or be written off as “accidental.”
Minister Lavrov emphasized that Russia is willing and ready to participate in full in any type of negotiations on ending hostilities in the east, and expressed hope that Tuesday’s meeting in Minsk will include a focus on the crisis in Ukraine.
“We certainly expect that tomorrow’s meeting in Minsk will feature a discussion on the humanitarian crisis,” Lavrov said. “We express hope that all participants will urge for the removal of any obstacles to smooth aid delivery to those who are most in need of it,” he added.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.(RIA Novosti)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.(RIA Novosti)

The upcoming gathering will be attended by the Customs Union, the Ukrainian authorities and members of the EU.
Sergey Lavrov was asked a wide range of questions on the situations in Ukraine, including the claims that Russian arms were crossing the border.
Allegations of Russian attempts to smuggle military equipment into Ukraine are false and are the latest in a string of bad information that has been circulating in recent days, the minister said. No one, including Ukraine’s special services, could confirm those suspicions.
Lavrov went on to stress that reports of Russian forces crossing into Ukraine have not been confirmed by the OSCE, which is evidenced in their report.
“We were ready at the August 17 meeting in Berlin to urge the provision of any support necessary – including drones – to the OSCE mission.”
He further mentioned OSCE concerns that indiscriminate arrests carried out by the militias are beginning to resemble a "witch hunt."
The people migrating into the west are not being taken in, nor are their children being given places in schools, he stressed.
If this is the sort of national unity Klichko, Tyangibok and Yatsenyuk spoke of, they lied to their own people, he said, referring to national unity agenda promoted by the leaders of opposition to former president Viktor Yanukovich.
The minister was dismayed at the ongoing investigation into the downing of flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine, which aroused much controversy and finger-pointing. He said that at this point it would appear that Russia “seems to be the only interested party in giving this serious issue any further attention.”

Sunday, August 24

17:47 GMT:
The United Nations calls to increase the amount of humanitarian aid to the residents of eastern Ukraine due to the upcoming plunge in temperature, said Valerie Amos, UN Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs. “Most of the refugees are vulnerable even for the moment, and temporary shelters they live in are not meant for under zero temperatures. We have to provide people with support for them to be able to survive the winter,” she said in a statement after her 4-day-long visit to Ukraine.
13:10 GMT:
The number of Ukrainian government forces killed during the “anti-terrorist” campaign in the country’s east has reached 722, the National Defense and Security Council said. This is a 150 troops jump from August 11, when the figure was at 568.
12:16 GMT:
Donetsk self-defense troops have force-marched dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war along the main street of the rebel-held town in east Ukraine.
People shouted “fascists” at the group, who walked with heads bowed, reports Reuters citing eyewitnesses. The captives were largely unshaven, disheveled and dressed either in combat fatigues or civilian clothes.

Supporters of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk threw plastic bottles and eggs at the group, which comprised of about 50 captive soldiers, reports the Ukrainian Ostrov news website.
View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
More photos of ruin and struggle in .

Kiev will spend 40 billion hryvnas (around $3 billion) on weapons and army modernization in 2015-2017, President Poroshenko promised, speaking at the military parade marking Ukraine’s Independence Day. He announced it will be a “modest beginning.

Poroshenko also said that some of the military personnel engaged in the parade, as well as a portion of the new weaponry on display, will be sent straight to the military zone in the country’s east after the celebration.
RIA Novosti / Nikolay Lasarenko
RIA Novosti / Nikolay Lasarenko

06:51 GMT:
Five artillery missiles have landed in a morgue in central Donetsk, an RIA Novosti correspondent on the ground reports, saying no mortuary staff were injured in the attack.

Multiple massive attacks reported this morning on suburbs and residential areas in .