Putin has been biding hit time regarding Ukraine . Is that time up ?
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/06/the-time-has-come-for-putin-to-make.html
( H/T to Kev ! )
TUESDAY, JUNE 17, 2014
The time has come for Putin to make the most important decision of his Presidency
Today I would like to just share two thoughts with you and suggest that each and every one of you come to his/her own conclusions.
First, Russia was literally "sucked into" WWI by the Germany. Russia did not have to enter the war as Russia herself was not attacked. "Only" Serbia was. Russia was not ready to enter the war, but the Czar-Martyr Saint Nicholas II decided that it was his Christian duty was to take the defense of the Serbian people even if all pragmatic considerations were clearly advocating against a Russian intervention. This war soon turned out to be extremely costly for Russia and greatly contributed to the weakening of the Russian monarchy which eventually resulted in a Aristocratic-Masonic coup (February 1917) followed by a Jewish-Bolshevik coup (October 1917). Did the Czar do the right thing when he decided to defend the Serbian nation at the potential cost of his own Empire, the last Christian Empire in history? It is a fact that the Serbian Prince Alexander and the Serbian people have always shown an immense and sincere gratitude to the Russian people and to Czar Nicholas II (whose first icon was painted on a fresco in Serbia, not Russia). But Russia also liberated Bulgaria from the Ottoman yoke. We now see the kind of "gratitude" Russia got from Bulgaria. Will a liberated Novorossia be more like Serbia or more like Bulgaria?
Second, the level of outrage in Russia over the apparent Russian non-action in the face of what has now clearly become a systematic terror campaign against the people of Novorossia is immense. If Putin does not take action *very* soon he will face a very serious challenge from many sectors of Russian society including the media, the Duma and even his own party "United Russia". My personal opinion is that this "wait and see" game was probably aimed at deliberately getting the Russian public opinion in a state of rage similar to the one which preceded the 2nd Chechen war but if that is so, then now the Russian society has reached boiling point and that if Putin does not act very soon a political explosion will take place in Russia. Every day now I see already "not so veiled at all" criticisms and expressions of disbelief at the Kremlin's "shameful passivity", and I am not talking about some small extremist party websites, but of the most watched and best known TV news and talkshows of mainstream Russian TV. Reporters which used to be very pro-Putin are now clearly and openly expressing frustration maybe not at Putin personally (yet), but at "Moscow". But the writing is on the wall for Putin now. Furthermore, representatives of Novorussian authorities are now spending their time in Moscow going from one talk-show to another and making truly dramatic pleas for help. In other words, Putin isdays away from what will become his political suicide unless he takes action. I would say that things have become so bad that even if the Novorossian Defense Forces have what it takes to keep the neo-Nazi death-squads mostly in check (and I believe that they do), the humanitarian situation is so bad (over 110'000 refugees already) that the pressure to have Russia intervene will continue to grow regardless of the military equation.
With these elements in mind, make your own conclusions now as to what Putin should/will do.
My personal belief is that a Russian intervention is imminent.
First, Russia was literally "sucked into" WWI by the Germany. Russia did not have to enter the war as Russia herself was not attacked. "Only" Serbia was. Russia was not ready to enter the war, but the Czar-Martyr Saint Nicholas II decided that it was his Christian duty was to take the defense of the Serbian people even if all pragmatic considerations were clearly advocating against a Russian intervention. This war soon turned out to be extremely costly for Russia and greatly contributed to the weakening of the Russian monarchy which eventually resulted in a Aristocratic-Masonic coup (February 1917) followed by a Jewish-Bolshevik coup (October 1917). Did the Czar do the right thing when he decided to defend the Serbian nation at the potential cost of his own Empire, the last Christian Empire in history? It is a fact that the Serbian Prince Alexander and the Serbian people have always shown an immense and sincere gratitude to the Russian people and to Czar Nicholas II (whose first icon was painted on a fresco in Serbia, not Russia). But Russia also liberated Bulgaria from the Ottoman yoke. We now see the kind of "gratitude" Russia got from Bulgaria. Will a liberated Novorossia be more like Serbia or more like Bulgaria?
Second, the level of outrage in Russia over the apparent Russian non-action in the face of what has now clearly become a systematic terror campaign against the people of Novorossia is immense. If Putin does not take action *very* soon he will face a very serious challenge from many sectors of Russian society including the media, the Duma and even his own party "United Russia". My personal opinion is that this "wait and see" game was probably aimed at deliberately getting the Russian public opinion in a state of rage similar to the one which preceded the 2nd Chechen war but if that is so, then now the Russian society has reached boiling point and that if Putin does not act very soon a political explosion will take place in Russia. Every day now I see already "not so veiled at all" criticisms and expressions of disbelief at the Kremlin's "shameful passivity", and I am not talking about some small extremist party websites, but of the most watched and best known TV news and talkshows of mainstream Russian TV. Reporters which used to be very pro-Putin are now clearly and openly expressing frustration maybe not at Putin personally (yet), but at "Moscow". But the writing is on the wall for Putin now. Furthermore, representatives of Novorussian authorities are now spending their time in Moscow going from one talk-show to another and making truly dramatic pleas for help. In other words, Putin isdays away from what will become his political suicide unless he takes action. I would say that things have become so bad that even if the Novorossian Defense Forces have what it takes to keep the neo-Nazi death-squads mostly in check (and I believe that they do), the humanitarian situation is so bad (over 110'000 refugees already) that the pressure to have Russia intervene will continue to grow regardless of the military equation.
With these elements in mind, make your own conclusions now as to what Putin should/will do.
My personal belief is that a Russian intervention is imminent.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-17/ukraine-russia-near-serious-conflict-following-gas-transit-pipeline-explosion
Ukraine-Russia Near "Serious Conflict" Following Gas Transit Pipeline Explosion
With 2 Russian TV journalists killed in recent days and on the heels of Russia's cutting off Ukraine's gas supply for non-payment, Interfax is reporting that:
- *EXPLOSION ON UKRAINE GAS TRANSIT PIPELINE REPORTED: IFX
- *INTERFAX CITES UKRAINE INTERIOR MINISTRY ON GAS PIPELINE BLAST
Witnesses say flames are reaching 200 metres high. Gazprom shares are tumbling on the news (as should European stocks) and Russia's Foreign Affairs Committee Chief Aleksei Pushkov warned relations between Ukraine and Russia have entered a new stage and are "moving closer towards a serious conflict."
An explosion has struck a pipeline near the eastern Ukrainian city of Poltava.Witnesses say the flame is reaching 200 meter high, RIA Novosti reports.The Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhgorod natural gas pipeline is about one kilometer way from the nearest settlement.No victims have been reported. Fire fighters crews have been deployed.
As Bloomberg reports,
Relations between Russia and Ukraine have entered a new stage and are "moving closer towards a serious conflict", said State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee chief Aleksei Pushkov.Russia did not recognise unilateral border demarcation by Ukraine which was "contrary to all norms of international law", Russia's ITAR-TASS news agency quoted Pushkov as saying Tuesday."An attack on the Russian embassy, an attempted attack on the consulate-general in Odessa, insults to the Russian president, regular arrests of Russian journalists -- I think this is a deliberate decision co-ordinated with the U.S -- all these are links of one chain," he said.
We are sure the explosion/fire on the pipeline will further this sentiment.
Update:
- *UKRAINE MINISTRY: FIRE BROKE OUT ON GAS PIPLINE, NO EXPLOSION
- *UKRAINE MINISTRY SAYS INVESTIGATING CAUSE OF GAS PIPELINE FIRE
Coincidental "fire"?
Gas transit pipeline explodes in E. Ukraine
An explosion has struck a pipeline in the eastern Ukrainian Poltava region. Witnesses say flames from the blast are up to 200 meter high, RIA Novosti reports.
The “Brotherhood” natural gas pipeline (Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod) is about one kilometer away from the nearest settlement. No injuries have been reported from the blast. Fire fighting crews have been deployed to the scene.
Operating since 1967, the “Brotherhood” is the largest consumer gas pipeline in Europe, clocking in at 4,451 km. It cuts through Ukraine and runs into Slovakia, where it diverges in two directions; with one part supplying gas to the Czech Republic, Germany, France and Switzerland, and the other to Austria, Italy, Hungary and several countries in the Balkans.
Pipeline faucets are being tuned off as fire fighters still can’t put out the flame.
DETAILS TO FOLLOW
Itar Tass....
European Commission hopes for Ukraine’s decency in gas transit
June 17, 16:52 UTC+4
The European Commission hopes that Ukraine will fulfil its liabilities for the European Union as a transit country and will not take Russian gas meant for Europe
The European Commission hopes that Ukraine will fulfil its liabilities for the European Union as a transit country and will not take Russian gas meant for Europe
BRUSSELS, June 17. /ITAR-TASS/. The European Commission hopes that Ukraine will fulfil its liabilities for the European Union as a transit country and will not take Russian gas meant for Europe, spokesperson of EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger Sabine Berger said on Tuesday. In her words, Russian gas is being delivered to Europe in the “routine mode”. She also noted that Ukraine might receive reverse gas from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.
Reverse gas supplies will not become a solution to the problems for Ukraine, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller told reporters on Monday.
Domestic gas consumption in Ukraine makes more than 50 billion cubic meters, gas output in the country makes less than half of this amount. Slovakia promised eight billion cubic metres of annual reverse gas supplies to Ukraine, Hungary - five billion cubic meters and Poland - 1.5 billion cubic meters. In total, this is about half of gas supplies from Russia.
Russian gas transit supplies via Ukraine are being delivered in routine mode. The daily gas amount stands at slightly more than 185 million cubic meters. An emergency headquarters started working in Russian energy giant Gazprom, monitoring the situation every day. If Gazprom finds that gas intended for Europe is left in Ukraine, Russia will increase gas supplies via Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe projects, Miller said.
The upstream throughput capacity of Ukrainian gas delivery system makes 288 billion cubic meters and the downstream one amounts to 178.5 billion cubic meters. The country’s gas transportation system consists of 72 gas compressor stations, 110 shops and 1,451 gas hubs. The length of gas pipelines makes 38,600 kilometers.
Russia stops gas supplies to Ukraine, transit to EU totals 185 million cu m daily — Prodan
June 16, 17:40 UTC+4
Russian state energy giant Gazprom on Monday switched to prepayment mode in gas supplies to Ukraine’s state oil and gas company Naftogaz because Ukraine failed to pay part of its gas debt
Russian state energy giant Gazprom on Monday switched to prepayment mode in gas supplies to Ukraine’s state oil and gas company Naftogaz because Ukraine failed to pay part of its gas debt
“To date, there is a report that gas supplies were reduced to zero. Only volumes of transit to European countries remain. They stand at 185 million cubic meters per day,” Prodan said.
“We are ready for such developments. We guarantee reliable gas supplies to Ukrainian consumers,” he said.
Russian state energy giant Gazprom on Monday switched to prepayment mode in gas supplies to Ukraine’s state oil and gas company Naftogaz because Ukraine failed to pay part of its gas debt by the deadline of 10:00 Moscow time (06:00 GMT) Monday.
Gas crisis artificially created by Ukraine — Medvedev
June 16, 13:41 UTC+4
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says the European Commission had urged Ukraine to take a constructive approach at gas talks with Russia
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says the European Commission had urged Ukraine to take a constructive approach at gas talks with Russia
GORKI, June 16. /ITAR-TASS/. Ukraine has artificially created the gas crisis, and it will backfire on its national economy, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday.
The European Commission had urged Ukraine to take a constructive approach at gas talks with Russia, Medvedev added.
There is a factor of other parties that have an influence on the situation with gas talks, the prime minister noted.
Russia ready for dialogue
Russia will be prepared for further gas talks with Ukraine, only if the debt is paid, Medvedev said. “I believe that we should not shut the window of opportunity for a dialogue. If our counterparts in Ukraine begin to listen to the voice of reason, if they get back to the discussion of very beneficial, very preferential proposals the Russian side has made, I believe that we shall be prepared for further talks, but on the condition the gas debt is paid in full,” Medvedev said.
On Monday, Gazprom has introduced pre-payment for gas supplies to Ukraine’s oil and gas company Naftogaz.
“The decision is made because of chronic non-payment by Naftogaz of Ukraine. The overdue debt for supplied Russian gas stands at $4.5 billion — $1.5 billion for November-December 2013, and $3 billion for April-May 2014,” Gazprom said in its press release.Ukrainian Coal and Energy Ministry has confirmed Russia halted gas supplies to Ukraine.
Kiev's counter-productive stance on gas dispute
Gas prepayment for Ukraine was introduced due to counter-productive stance of Kiev, which can can be described as blackmailing, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said.
Gazprom's latest gas supply terms to ukraine were better than those offered to the government of former President Viktor Yanukovych, Miller noted.
The European Commission (EC) supported Russia’s position on most of its proposals during gas talks with Ukraine, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday.
“We could see European Commission’s interest in having the situation settled before the winter heating season,” the minister said. “The European Commission supported most of our proposals within the framework of thorny negotiations when Ukraine was taking a destructive stance,” he added.
Earlier today, Medvedev held a meeting with Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller to discuss Russia’s further actions in relation to the Ukrainian gas debt issue.
Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said that “Gazprom’s CEO and energy minister will present a report to the president and the government, and decisions will be made afterwards."
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