Narendra Modi: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/16/2014 21:54 -0400
Given the surge in India's stock market, echoing the reflexive pro-business exuberance of last year's Japanese stock market, the similarities between India's newly-elected PM Narendra Modi and Japan's Shinzo Abe are coming thick and fast... some good (pro-business), some bad (potential dislike of the US) and some potentially ugly (strong nationalist tendencies).
But it's not all silver linings... (as The Diplomat's Ankit Panda notes)
Overall, these elections demonstrate that Indian democracy is functional where it counts: holding a government accountable for poor political, economic, and social outcomes. It remains to be seen if the BJP will deliver what India’s voters want, but for now, the party seems to have won the broadest mandate of any single party in Indian politics in decades.
And, from Morgan Stanley,
Reforms Are Critical...
The two key variables that will be critical in reviving India’s growth trend are: (a) improvement in the external environment and (b) a pickup in the pace of structural reforms. Our global economics team expects that global growth will improve further to 3.7% in 2015, moving closer to the last 30 years’ average, giving us the confidence that the external environment will be supportive of India’s growth recovery.
Policy reforms at home will be even more critical. Over the past five years, the government’s policy was focused more on redistribution and less on boosting productive income growth. Moreover, bureaucratic hurdles and corruption-related investigations have exacerbated the challenges of weak demand and low corporate confidence. This has held back the much needed capex cycle and has been a drag on economic growth.
Overhauling bureaucratic processes and enacting reforms to lift sustainable growth is imperative. The macro stability risks of higher inflation, a wide current account deficit and asset quality issues in the banking system associated with such a policy approach has forced a recognition among policy makers of the need to pay greater attention to reviving the productive dynamic.
Higher economic growth rates are needed to generate the productive employment opportunities for India’s large and growing working age population. Moreover, India’s literate and well-connected middle class is now reaching critical mass.
We assume the US needs all the friends it can right now.
India's BJP set for landslide poll win
Opposition Hindu nationalist party, headed by Narendra Modi, takes unassailable lead over ruling Congress party.
Last updated: 16 May 2014 12:41
Narendra Modi will most likely be the next prime minister of India [AFP]
|India's Hindu nationalist opposition Bharatiya Janata Party is on course for a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections, making an unassailable lead over the ruling Congress party, partial results show.|
Partial results showed the BJP winning more than the 272 seats required for a majority on its own in the 543-seat parliament, with victories by its allies taking it easily in excess of 300.
Speaking in the capital, New Delhi, the BJP leader Rajnath Singh said "The poor, the weak...This party belongs to everybody."
"This is the time when you can write about India's success story."
Modi, the 63-year-old son of a low-caste tea seller tainted by anti-Muslim violence in his home state of Gujarat in 2002, wrote on Twitter that "India has won. Good days are coming".
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has called Modi to congratulate him on the victory, Singh's office said in a Tweet.
The stunning results exceeded all forecasts. Firecrackers exploded at BJP offices around the country and sweets were handed out in celebrations that began only a few hours after the first figures filtered out.
"This is the beginning of change, a people's revolution and the start of a new era," senior BJP leader Prakash Javadekar told AFP news agency at party headquarters in New Delhi.
Congress concedes defeat
The leaders of Congress party, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, admitted personal responsibility for the disastrous election results.
"We understand that victory and loss is part of democracy," party president Sonia told reporters in New Delhi.
The Congress party, that has run India for all but 13 years since independence, was set to crash to its worst ever result after a decade in power.
Al Jazeera’s Sohail Rahman, reporting from New Delhi, said: "Modi has taken the pains to tell the community-at-large that everyone will prosper under his government."
"It is inevitable that countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan will be eyeing this very carefully," he said.
Al Jazeera’s Kamal Hyder reporting from Islamabad, said there is are some fears from the Pakistani side, but the Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has said he is looking forward to a positive relationship.
“Even though there is optimism things will move forward, there are apprehnsions,” Hyder said.
Meanwhile, Al Jazeera's Anmol Saxena, Nidhi Dutt, Baba Umar, Faiz Jamil and Karishma Vyas have been posting on Twitter about the elections, and early celebrations at BJP headquarters.
There was a record turnout in the elections, with 66.38 percent of the 814 million eligible voters casting ballots during several stages of the six-week ballot. Turnout in the 2009 elections was 58.13 percent.
There is widespread dissatisfaction with the ruling Congress Party, which has been plagued by repeated corruption scandals.
The BJP made promises of economic growth and better governance in a well-financed campaign.
The Indian Election Is Over: The Full Summary
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/16/2014 07:56 -0400
Didn't follow tonight's historic election in India (which caused the local market to surge as much as 6.2% at one time hitting an all time high) which has left the nation with a "general feeling of euphoria"? Then this full recap of what just happened, courtesy of Bloomberg, is for you.
ELECTION & MARKETS