Saturday, May 17, 2014

Gold and Silver Saturday May 17 , 2014 Report ( Ed Steer's fine 5/17/14 Report - news , data and views ) , additional add on items from GATA , Jesse Cafe Americain et al ......

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/how-long-can-phase-ii-of-the-gold-pool-be-sustained

¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD & SILVER

Except for the fact that "da boyz" and their algorithms showed up at the New York open, it was pretty much a nothing sort of day in the gold market yesterday.  With the gold price on an obvious very tight leash, it was a given that the price wasn't going to be allowed above the $1,300 spot price mark, or the 200-day moving average.
The high and low ticks were recorded by the CME as $1,298.30 and $1,287.70 in the June contract.
Gold finished the Friday trading session in New York at $1,292.70 spot, down $4.10 from Thursday's close.  Net volume was very quiet---only 84,000 contracts.
Silver was under a bit more selling pressure in late Far East and early London trading yesterday---and it got hit a bit in early New York trading as well.  Ever since the price touched $20 the ounce at the New York open on Wednesday, JPMorgan et al have been chipping away at it ever since.
The high and low ticks were reported as $19.53 and $19.255 in the July contract.
Silver  closed on Friday at $19.345 spot, down 11.5 cents from Thursday.  Volume net of May and June was 35,500 contracts.  There was also 3,000 contracts traded in September and December---and whether that was roll-over/spread related, is impossible to tell.
The platinum price traded within a one percent price range all day on Friday---and closed down three bucks.  Palladium was under pressure in early London trading, but rallied sharply around 12:30 p.m BST---and the traded flat for the remainder of the day, closing up five bucks.  Here are the charts.
The dollar index closed at 80.04 late on Thursday afternoon in New York.  It dipped slightly below the 80.00 level a few times, but manged to rally back to unchanged, finishing the Friday session at 80.05.
***

The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold and 63 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday.  The only two short/issuers in silver were Jefferies once again, along with ABN Amro, with 38 and 25 contracts respectively.  And, once again, it was "all the usual suspects" as long/stoppers, with JPMorgan being the tallest hog at the trough with 42 contracts in total.  The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.
There was a small 8,620 troy ounce withdrawal from GLD yesterday, which I would guess was a fee payment of some kind.  And, as of 7:31 p.m EDT yesterday evening, there were no reported changes in SLV.
Once again there was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.
There was no in/out activity in gold over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday and, in silver, there was 613,090 troy ounces reported received---and 24,900 troy ounces were shipped out.  The link to that activity is here.
I was happy to see that the Commercial net short positions in both silver and gold showed declines in yesterday's Commitment of Traders Report.
It wasn't a lot in silver, as the Commercial net short position dropped by only 915 contract, or 4.58 million troy ounces---and now sits at 97.2 million ounces.  Ted Butler says that JPMorgan's short-side corner in the Comex silver market remained basically unchanged at 100 million ounces, which represents over 100% of the entire Commercial net short position in silver in the Commercial category.  The word "grotesque" is a barely adequate description of this situation.
Ted also mentioned that the 10,000 contract non-technical fund long position hiding in the bushes in the Manged Money category hasn't moved an inch, which is wonderful news, as they're obviously in this to make a big killing when we get a price rally of some significance.
In gold, the Commercial net short position declined by a respectable 8,150 contracts, or 815,000 troy ounces of paper gold.  The Commercial net short position in this precious metal now stands at 10.23 million troy ounces.  Ted said that JPMorgan sold 5,000 long contracts during the reporting week---and their long-side corner in the Comex gold market now stands at 36,000 contracts, or 3.6 million troy ounces of the stuff.
Here's Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" of the 4 and 8 largest traders on all physical commodities traded on the Comex.
And just as a point of interest, JPMorgan's short position in silver is equivalent to about 50 days of world silver production on this chart.
***

Doug Noland: Nervous Time

But when it comes to the Summer of Discontent thesis, let me throw this unappetizing morsel out as food for thought: bear market. Bull markets are all about optimism and self-reinforcing speculation and liquidity excess. Bear markets are the creatures of unmet expectations, disappointment and waning liquidity. I have made the case that desperate monetary stimulus from the world’s central bankers has created a dangerous divergence: inflated and highly speculative securities market Bubbles (and the associated distorted “Truman World” view of reality) versus very real deteriorating fundamental prospects and heightened global risk. I’ve tried to make the case that with Fed balance sheet expansion winding down, the markets have become extraordinarily vulnerable to a bout of “risk off” de-risking and de-leveraging.

But let me get a little more specific. With the Fed promising not to raise rates for some time to come, the marketplace is really complacent with regard to the end of QE3. Rates are staying at zero – and the Fed is surely willing to respond to market instability with more “money” printing, as the thinking goes. So the bullish view that financial conditions stay loose indefinitely has solidified. Is this a major misconception that holds potential for a big downside surprise?

With monetary inflation having levitated price levels all over the place – bonds, stocks, homes, household incomes, spending, corporate earnings and cash flows, global finance, etc. – the system is today extraordinarily susceptible to speculative de-leveraging and the reversal of flows out of the ETF complex. And this week we have confirmation that David Tepper, king of sophisticated market operators, is sensing “Nervous Time.”

Huge U.S. firms afraid of blowback from sanctions on Russia over Ukraine crisis

U.S. businesses are in fear of a backlash from sanctions on Russia over the current conflict in Ukraine. The Obama administration has stated that it can use economic levies on Russia but the game plan has run into numerous speed bumps, according to analysts.
Specialists have pointed out that if the White House reacts in too much of an aggressive way, it could create a blowback for major US firms with close knit ties to Russia's flourishing economy. Should the Obama administration zero in on entire sections of the Russian economy, those very businesses may have no other choice but to face severe losses.
Experts claim that prospect exposes the paradoxical limitations of relying on sanctions to show off its American strength, as stated in a Washington Times article. Already, Moscow has decided to ban the US from using the International Space Station after 2020 and block off the export of crucial rocket engines to the US military as an answer to the sanctions which have been more recently put in place. The mounting ordeal is being carefully watched by US executives, including the employees of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which made $56 million in investment banking transaction fees alone in Russia during the 2013 year. Pepsico Inc. also has a lot at stake with the Eastern European country, which has been noted as the largest food and beverage firm dealing in Russia since 2011.
This news item put in an appearance on The Voice of Russiawebsite on Thursday sometime, Moscow time---and it's the first offering of the day from South African reader B.V.


Puppetry Canada reduces sanctions against Russia to secure its business interests

Canada abandons some of the imposed sanctions against Russia to save its business interests, putting the US, who initiated the sanctions over the Ukrainian crisis, in an awkward political situation. Thus, Canada has not imposed sanctions against Sergei Chemezov, who heads state-owned industrial and defense conglomerate Rostec, and Igor Sechin, CEO of oil giant Rosneft. Both men have highly-profitable business ties to Canada.
Canada, home to 1.2 million people of Ukrainian descent, has imposed sanctions on more than 80 Russian and Ukrainian officials and businesses, compared to about 60 by the United States.
Rosneft owns some 30 percent of a Canadian oil field, while Rostec has an aircraft assembly joint venture lined up with Bombardier Inc. The venture is vital to the Canadian plane and train maker, as the fate of a roughly $3.4 billion aircraft sale deal is tied to it.
Asked about the decision not to go after either Sechin or Chemezov, a Canadian government source familiar with Ottawa's sanctions strategy told Reuters: "Our goal is to sanction Russia, it is not to go out of our way to sanction or penalize Canadian companies."

East European leaders blame E.U. in hypocrisy on sanctions against Russia

Czech, Hungarian and Slovak leaders are blaming the E.U. west bloc in hypocrisy in regard to Russia during the crisis in Ukraine. Eastern Europe refuses to get more economic damage which could be inflicted by wider sanctions.
While Eastern Europe undergoes an economic crisis, the West continues on dealing with Russian companies even as they threaten Russia with more sanctions. "It is hypocritical," Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said at a conference today in Bratislava, the nation's capital.
His Czech and Hungarian counterparts, Bohuslav Sobotka and Viktor Orban, said they don't want to lose out on business opportunities.
"We are talking about solidarity here and France is selling warships to Russia," Fico said at a Globsec security conference. "We are talking about how to help Ukraine with its energy security and the very same day we were taking fundamental decisions at the European Council," while Russian gas exporter OAO Gazprom "signed a contract on South Stream," a pipeline, "with German, French and Italian companies."

GOLD / Silver Items....

Two King World News Blogs

The first blog is with market veteran Richard Russell---and it's headlined "Shorts May Get Crushed in the Silver Market".  The second interview is with Hong Kong fund managerWilliam Kaye---and it's headlined "We're Headed For An Apocalypse - A Financial Armageddon".

Alasdair Macleod: Technical analysis vs. value in gold

GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod contrasts technical analysis of financial markets with value analysis and sides with the latter. Of course neither are very good in a market that is as comprehensively manipulated by central bank intervention as the gold market is, but as happened with the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968, eventually the metal available to the market manipulators runs out and value manifests itself, sometimes overnight.
Whether "eventually" will cover part of the lifespan of anyone now alive is the big question. GATA continues to do what it can.
The link to this commentary by Alasdair is embedded in a GATA release from yesterday---and the above paragraphs of introduction were courtesy of Chris Powell.

How Long Can Phase II of the Gold Pool Be Sustained?

"The London Gold Pool was the pooling of gold reserves by a group of eight central banks in the United States and seven European countries that agreed on 1 November 1961 to cooperate in maintaining the Bretton Woods System of fixed-rate convertible currencies and defending a gold price of US$35 per troy ounce by interventions in the London gold market.

The central banks coordinated concerted methods of gold sales to balance spikes in the market price of gold as determined by the London morning gold fixing while buying gold on price weaknesses. The United States provided 50% of the required gold supply for sale. The price controls were successful for six years until the system became no longer workable. The pegged price of gold was too low and runs on gold, the British pound, and the US dollar occurred and France decided to withdraw from the pool. The London Gold Pool collapsed in March 1968.

The London Gold Pool controls were followed with an effort to suppress the gold price with a two-tier system of official exchange and open market transactions, but this gold window collapsed in 1971 with the Nixon Shock, and resulted in the onset of the gold bull market which saw the price of gold appreciate rapidly to US$850 in 1980."

Wikipedia, The London Gold Pool
This wonderful overview of the current situation in the gold market was posted by the proprietor over atthejessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca Internet site yesterday---and it's an absolute must read.  I thank reader U.D. for bringing it to my attention---and now to yours.



 

¤ THE WRAP

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished---unless they kill in large numbers, and to the sound of trumpets. — Voltaire, 1694-1778
Today's pop "blast from the past" is by an American rock group that got a lot of air time from me when I was spinning 45s at radio station CHAR-FM in Alert, N.W.T.[now Nunavut] back in the very early 1970s when I was in my early 20s.  This was probably their biggest hit, but they had lots of others as well---and you'll find most of them in the right side-bar over at the youtube.com Internet site.  The link is here.
Today's classical "blast from the past" takes a somewhat different tack.  As you know, I'm a huge classical music fan---and spent 11 years on the board of directors of the Edmonton Symphony Orchestra in programming and fundraising.  Naturally, I have always been enamoured with the movie "Amadeus", the somewhat fictional account of Mozart's life as told by Kapellmeister Antonio Salieri, his supposed arch rival---and if you haven't seen this movie, you owe it to you to do so.
I've always wondered what a Mozart-type child prodigy would be like if one showed up in the world today.  Well, one has.  I heard her a couple of years ago when she was only six years old---and I was impressed back then.  Now she's 8---going on 9---and her abilities are already light years ahead of where they were a couple of years back.  The only thing holding up her playing progress is her physical size, as her hands are too small to reach a full octave on the piano---and she's restricted to playing a child-sized violin.  Gifted is not the right word here---and words fail me to really describe her, as the world has seen nothing like her, at least not since I was born.
Here name is Alma Deutscher---and she is a force to be reckoned with already.  Don't let her child-like voice fool you into thinking she's a little kid.  Yes, in some ways she is, but when it comes to music, she is not of this earth.  Here is a 6:14 minute video clip from NBC's Today show that was posted on the youtube.comInternet site on November 4, 2013.  Watch it to the very end---and mark my words, the world hasn't heard the last of her.  I thank Roy Stephens for digging this up late yesterday evening.  The link is here.
With such light volume yesterday, I'm not prepared to read too much into Friday's price action except to note that the price movement at the New York open was straight down for the second day in a row,  rather than straight up.
As I mentioned in yesterday's column, we seem to be in some sort of holding pattern at the moment, but for what reason I don't know?  We may or may not find out in the fullness of time, but the odds are 100% in our favour that the current situation won't last indefinitely.
Here are the 6-month charts for both gold and silver once again---and the holding pattern is obvious.
I don't have much to add to today's column---and I'm fresh out of words of wisdom.  Like you, I'm just sitting here waiting for the precious metal market to hatch into something---and that will come when "da boyz"---which also includes the Fed, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, the BIS, and most likely the Bank of England and the European Central Bank---decide that a higher gold price would be in everyone's best interests.
And as I've said on many occasions over the last decade, the Russians and Chinese are more than aware of this Anglo/American price management scheme---and could end it any time they wish.  They just might, but it will occur only when it serves their interests best.
Next Tuesday Putin, along with his Chinese counterpart, are meeting in Beijing---and it's a good bet that the subject will come up.  But whether they're prepared to do anything about it, is another matter entirely.  But if they wanted to throw the mother of all spanners into the West's banking system, especially the "too big to fail" U.S. banks---along with Canada's Scotiabank---that would do the trick nicely.
That's all I have for the day---and the week.  Enjoy what's left of your weekend, and I'll see you on Tuesday.





Additional items of note.....



GATA....



Koos Jansen: Are the London gold vaults running empty?

 Section: 
8:28p ET Thursday, May 15, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
British gold exports, which long have been feeding Swiss refineries for reprocessing into kilobars for export to Asian markets and China particularly, collapsed 85 percent in March even as gold imports into China remain strong, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports tonight. This prompts Jansen to wonder if the bullion banks in London are starting to run out of metal. Jansen's commentary is headlined "Are the London Gold Vaults Running Empty?" and it's posted at his Internet site, In Gold We Trust, here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.





Mike Kosares: So how goes the war on gold?

 Section: 
8:05p ET Thursday, May 15, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
While gold investors may be frustrated that the Western central bank gold price suppression scheme has not yet collapsed, Mike Kosares of Centennial Precious Metals in Denver writes today that gold's opponents are probably just as frustrated with the persistence of strong demand for the monetary metal. Kosares' commentary is headlined "So How Goes the War on Gold?" and it's posted at Centennial's Internet site, USAGold.com, here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



The world's real rulers: central banks operating in secret

 Section: 
EU Officials Plotted IMF Attack to Bring Rebellious Italy to Its Knees
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Thursday, May 15, 2014
The revelations about EMU skulduggery are coming thick and fast. Tim Geithner recounts in his book "Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises" just how far the EU elites are willing to go to save the euro, even if it means toppling elected leaders and eviscerating Europe's sovereign parliaments.
The former US Treasury Secretary says that EU officials approached him in the white heat of the EMU crisis in November 2011 with a plan to overthrow Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's elected leader.
"They wanted us to refuse to back IMF loans to Italy as long as he refused to go," he writes.

Geithner told them this was unthinkable. The US could not misuse the machinery of the IMF to settle political disputes in this way. "We can't have his blood on our hands."
This concurs with we knew at the time about the backroom manoeuvres, and the action in the bond markets.
It is a constitutional scandal of the first order. These officials decided for themselves that the sanctity of monetary union entitled them to overrule the parliamentary process, that means justify the end. It is the definition of a monetary dictatorship.
Mr Berlusconi has demanded a parliamentary inquiry. "It's a clear violation of democratic rules and an assault on the sovereignty of our country. The plot is an extremely serious news which confirms what I've been saying for a long time," he said.
There has been a drip-drip of revelations. Italy's former member on the ECB's executive board, Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, suggested in his book last summer that the decision to topple Berlusconi (and replace him with ex-EU commissioner Mario Monti) was taken after he started threatening a return to the lira in meetings with EU leaders.
I have always found the incident bizarre. Italy had previously been held up an example of virtue, one of the very few EMU states then near primary budget surplus. It was not in serious breach of deficit rules. It was in crisis in the autumn of 2011 because the ECB had raised rates twice and triggered what was to become a deep double-dip recession. Yet the blame for this disastrous policy error was displaced on to Italy's government.
Fresh details emerged this week in a terrific account of the crisis by Peter Spiegel in the Financial Times.
The report recounts the hour-by-hour drama at the G20 Summit in Cannes as the euro came close to blowing up. It culminates in the incredible scene when President Barack Obama takes over meeting and tells the Europeans what to do, causing Chancellor Angela Merkel to break down in tears: "Ich bringe mich nicht selbst um" -- "I won't commit suicide."
That particular spasm of the crisis -- and there have been three episodes (May 2010, November 2011, and July 2012) when the would have splintered without drastic action -- was set off by the shock decision of Greek premier Georges Papandreou to call a referendum on the austerity terms of his country’s bailout. He thought a vote was needed to stop Greece from spinning out of control and to pre-empt a possible military coup (as he saw it).
Papandreou was hauled before the star chamber and literally crushed into silence by French leader Nicolas Sarkozy, who was waving his "Position commune sur la Grece" like an indictment sheet.
The FT report then reveals that the Commission's Jose Manuel Barroso took charge of the executive details, orchestrating the Putsch that ousted Papandreou in Greece. In this case the EU picked ECB veteran Lucas Papademos to take over.
Parliamentary formalities were upheld in both Italy and Greece. The presidents appointed the new leaders in each of the two countries. Both Monti and Papademos are honourable and dedicated public servants. Yet these were clearly coups d'etat in spirit if not in constitutional law.
David Marsh from the financial body OMFIF has called for a "Truth and Reconciliation Committee" to expose the abuses that have occurred in EMU affairs from the beginning. Something must be done to hold accountable those responsible for the fateful error of launching monetary union, and for the chronic mismanagement of the project thereafter.
We are told that the euro crisis is now over. I do not see how one can safely reach that conclusion when Italy and Portugal are contracting again and France is back to zero growth, or when lowflation/deflation is causing the debt trajectories of southern Europe to spiral ever higher; all against a background of G2 monetary tightening in the US and China.
There will be another spasm to this crisis. So whom will Europe's elites topple next, and what other conspiracies will they hatch to perpetuate a monetary venture that serves no worthwhile moral purpose? They must be stopped.
The FT's Peter Speigel has a follow-up in today's edition, with lots more details. These include confirmation that EU leaders not only broached the subject of Greek exit/expulsion from the euro at Cannes but that this was followed up by a secret Plan Z.
A GREXIT task-force under Germany's ECB's board member Jorg Asmussen worked on emergency plans with four clandestine teams and EU lawyers in Brussels. They were careful enough not to reveal anything in emails, which could be leaked.
Merkel's advisers in Germany were split into the "domino" camp that feared contagion from GREXIT, and the "infected-leg" camp headed by finance minister Wolfgang Schauble that pushed for amputation.
It seems as if Angela Merkel was finally persuaded by Jorg Asmussen that kicking Greece out of the system might snowball and lead all too quickly to a "eurozone of 10." Greece got its E34 billion bailout in the nick of time.
Though I should not say this about a competing newspaper, it is worth spending L2.50 today on the pink sheet for the story.

Koos Jansen.....


Chinese gold demand 694 MT YTD, Silver In Backwardation

Total Chinese wholesale gold demand year to date reached 694 metric tonnes in week 18 (28-4-2014/30-4-2014), annualized 2004 tonnes. During that week 23 metric tonnes of gold were withdrawn from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in only three days! The SGE was closed on May 1 and 2. If the SGE would have been open for trading five days in week 18 withdrawals could have reached 39.16 tonnes, which is slightly higher than the yearly average of 38.5 tonnes.
Continue Reading »


Wikileaks: US Knew Exactly How To Provoke Russia

Back in 2008 the Ukraine had already expressed its plans for NATO membership at the NATO Bucharest Summit. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition at the time, stressing that Russia would view further NATO eastward expansion as a potential military threat. From Wikileaks (2008):


NATO Enlargement “Potential Military Threat to Russia”

During his annual review of Russia’s foreign policy January 22-23, Foreign Minister Lavrov stressed that Russia had to view continued eastward expansion of NATO, particularly to Ukraine and Georgia, as a potential military threat.
Continue Reading »



http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

16 MAY 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - How Long Can Phase II of the Gold Pool Be Sustained


"The London Gold Pool was the pooling of gold reserves by a group of eight central banks in the United States and seven European countries that agreed on 1 November 1961 to cooperate in maintaining the Bretton Woods System of fixed-rate convertible currencies and defending a gold price of US$35 per troy ounce by interventions in the London gold market.

The central banks coordinated concerted methods of gold sales to balance spikes in the market price of gold as determined by the London morning gold fixing while buying gold on price weaknesses. The United States provided 50% of the required gold supply for sale. The price controls were successful for six years until the system became no longer workable. The pegged price of gold was too low and runs on gold, the British pound, and the US dollar occurred and France decided to withdraw from the pool. The London Gold Pool collapsed in March 1968.

The London Gold Pool controls were followed with an effort to suppress the gold price with a two-tier system of official exchange and open market transactions, but this gold window collapsed in 1971 with the Nixon Shock, and resulted in the onset of the gold bull market which saw the price of gold appreciate rapidly to US$850 in 1980."

Wikipedia, The London Gold Pool

The first chart below this evening compares the year to date performance of the SP 500, the NDX, the Russell 2000, and Gold.

If you have not noticed, gold and silver have been 'pegged' just below 1300 and 20 respectively. Someone asked me 'why these particular levels' the other day. I would hope the reason why they are capping the metals in the first place would be fairly self explanatory by now.  

Who are 'they?'  Some of the Western central banks have obviously formed a 'gold pool' through which they are attempting to manage the relationships of a number of currencies and economic factors affecting global trade, including the natural money of gold and silver.  This is not my opinion.  Central Banks hold gold in their reserves, despite what some monetary theorists might otherwise say.  The Banks understand the long history of money, in its ebb and flow.

As you may recall, Phase I of the current Gold Pool ended with the collapse of the Washington Agreement,  which was an attempt to prop up a failing arrangement often called Bretton Woods II.  This failure became unmistakable with the change in the central bank behavior towards gold, from net sellers to net buyers, with the revolt of the BRICs. 

We are in Phase II now, which is a loose confederation of Western banks being led by the Fed and the Bank of England who are attempting to maintain the status quo and US Dollar hegemony.

But the Western banks are running a bit of a con game with the Dollar, as it has already lasted well beyond its prime. You really cannot based global economics on a piece of paper that one country creates at will for its own domestic and foreign policy conveniences.

Not unless you are willing to sacrifice your own autonomy. Its a similar thing to the reason why the euro must eventually fail, because it is a single currency across a non-cohesive political union. 

It is clear that China and Russia and parts of the Mideast are not on board with the Pool, and India is struggling against its own people.  The US is flexing its muscles, but that sort of thing tends to become unsustainably expensive, even for those who own a printing press, but do not own the printing press.

The Fed and its crony central banks are clearly in a bit of a panic, and they are attempting to hold the line in the metals, while they try and manage the unfolding set of economic crises which they have created, and which are hardly resolved.  They have sold the world for their Banks, and now must now sit down to a banquet of consequences, which they are loathe to do.  They will throw institution after institution to the wolves before that if they are able.

The Gold Pool would like to strike a lower level, but as we have seen that is a bit problematic, because the vaults of the West were being emptied fairly steadily, and the miners will be having even more trouble staying in business at lower prices.  And there remains a stubborn demand for the metals from the peoples of the Mideast and Asia, despite the efforts of the neo-liberals to bring them to heel.

I cannot predict exactly when this current cartel will fail, as the London Gold Pool fell when France withdrew for example.  It is hard to predict an exogenous decision or shock.   But there are no lack of guesses.  Guessing is not a practical investment strategy, but it works in selling advice.

We will most likely see quite a cat fight amongst Zurich, Frankfurt, Shanghai and London for the next phase of the gold trading market.  The foundations for Phase III, in which gold starts to trade more freely, have already been laid.  And of course New York may attempt to rule the new gold trade, on the basis that possession is nine-tenths of the law.  That ought to go over like a lead balloon with those nations whose sovereign metals are held hostage.
"As a reaction to the temporary closure of the London gold market in March 1968 and the resulting instability of the gold markets and the financial systems in general, Swiss banks acted immediately to minimize effects on the Swiss banking system and its currency by establishing a gold trading organization, the Zürich Gold Pool, which helped in establishing Zürich as a major trading location for gold."
When did the NY Fed say that they might be inclined to return Germany's gold?  That bit of whimsy may provide us with an outer bound for a resolution of phase II of the currency war. Although the Fed is most likely being unrealistic as usual in their forecasting.

Perhaps we may see some better hints of it through the fog of deception as the time approaches.   But it seems likely that when the new gold pool starts to crumble, the price levels may move with a bit of a bang.

Have a pleasant weekend.