http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-19/%E2%80%9Cconflict-between-china-and-vietnam-imminent-china-piles-troops-tanks-artillery-and-
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2014 08:01 -0400
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10839701/China-steps-up-speed-of-oil-stockpiling-as-tensions-mount-in-Asia.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-17/over-3000-chinese-evacuated-boat-plane-vietnams-anti-china-riots-escalate-taiwan-als
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2014 22:33 -0400
“Conflict Between China And Vietnam Is Imminent" - China Piles Troops, Tanks, Artillery And APCs Near Vietnam Border
Earlier today, Putin did his usual "we are pulling our forces away from the Ukraine border" gambit (sure he is... and is replacing them with a massive airforce drill), and as usual the algos appear to have fallen for it, after European stocks sudden surged out of nowhere on the now quite generic bounce catalyst, but what is shaping up as a far more dangerous escalation is what China is doing next to its border with Vietnam, where as reportedpreviously protesters destroyed Chinese factories and killed Chinese civilians in retaliation over yet another maritime territorial spat. According to the Epoch Times, "troops, tanks, trucks, artillery, and armored personnel carriers of China’s military were seen heading to the Vietnamese border on May 16 and 17, according to photographs taken by by residents near the border."
Chinese netizens have been posting photographs of the large movement of the People’s Liberation Army, many of them showing Chinese troops in full combat gear heading to the local train station in Chongzuo, along with military vehicles.One netizen said the Chinese military was taking the train from the Chongzuo station to Pingxiang City, which shares a 60-mile border with Vietnam. The netizen said that the Huu Nghi Border Gate to Vietnam is also now closed.One of the photos, taken from inside a passenger train, shows the Chinese military preparing artillery for transport on a train track. Others show Chinese troops and military vehicles traveling along dirt roads.Another photograph shows troops walking under the red-colored entrance to the Longzhou International Building Materials Market, on Provincial Road in the city of Chongzuo.A reverse image search of each of the photographs using Google indicated that the photographs had appeared on the Internet only recently. Most were indexed by Google on Saturday.Collectively, the images and eyewitness reports from the ground show what Taiwanese media are calling an “endless stream” of Chinese troops.
Why is China doing this? Simple: "One netizen, with the username Zhiyuan0703, echoed a common sentiment on the Chinese social media site, “Conflict between China and Vietnam is imminent.”
And just in case the US gets any ideas to support its one time foe, China has already taken measures:
Fang Fenghui, the Chinese military’s chief of the general staff, spoke with reporters at the Pentagon on May 15, alongside U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey.Fang defended China’s oil drilling in disputed waters with Vietnam. He also warned the United States on taking sides, saying through a Chinese translator “there is possibility that these issues could affect or disturb the relationship between the two countries and two militaries.”White House press secretary Jay Carney reiterated the U.S. stance on China’s oil rig, however, during a May 15 press briefing.He said China’s oil rig, which the Chinese regime has accompanied with “numerous government vessels” is a “provocative act and it raises tensions in the region, and by raising tensions makes it more difficult to resolve claims over disputed territory in a manner that supports peace and stability in the region.”Carney said the United States takes no position on the territorial claims, but, “We do take a position on the conduct of the claimants who must resolve their disputes peacefully, without intimidation, without coercion, and in accordance with international law.”Regarding China’s oil rig and the tensions that have formed around it, Carney said, “We consider that act provocative and we consider it one that undermines the goal that we share, which is a peaceful resolution of these disputes and general stability in the region.”
But fear not: the futures are actively monitoring this, and all other global geopolitical conflicts, and are absolutely confident the Fed will fix it should war break out. As usual, we wish algos the best of luck, because as ET summarizes, "China is currently involved in territorial conflicts with nearly all its neighbors." Once again - what can possibly go wrong? Judging by the photos below, nothing at all.
A Bradley Attack Vehicle troop transport of the Chinese military, is
seen in Kunming, Yunnan, in Southwest China. Chinese netizens have
posted several photos showing the Chinese military moving toward the
Vietnamese border. (Weibo.com)
seen in Kunming, Yunnan, in Southwest China. Chinese netizens have
posted several photos showing the Chinese military moving toward the
Vietnamese border. (Weibo.com)
A Chinese tank is seen near the border with Vietnam, as tensions grow more tense between the two countries. (Weibo.com)
Chinese troops carrying anti-tank weapons are seen marching in Guangxi Province, near the border with Vietnam. Local netizens report a strong smell of gunpowder. (Weibo.com)
A convoy of Chinese military vehicles are seen in Fangchenggang City in Guangxi, near the Vietnam border. (Weibo.com)
Chinese troops march in Chongzuo City in Guangxi Province near the Vietnam border. Chinese netizens say the troops are moving along the border. (Weibo.com)
Chinese troops are seen marching in a city street in Chongzuo in China’s Guangxi Province near the Vietnam border. (Weibo.com)
Chinese artillery is being transported in Chongzuo City, Guangxi Province. (Weibo.com)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10839701/China-steps-up-speed-of-oil-stockpiling-as-tensions-mount-in-Asia.html
8:37PM BST 18 May 2014
China is stockpiling oil for its strategic petroleum reserve at a record pace, intervening on a scale large enough to send a powerful pulse through the world crude market.
The move comes as tensions mount in the South China Sea, and the West prepares possible oil sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Eastern Ukraine. Analysts believe China is quietly building up buffers against a possible spike in oil prices or disruptions in supply.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly report that China imported 6.81m barrels a day in April, an all-time high. This is raising eyebrows since China’s economy has been slowing for months, with slump conditions in the steel industry and a sharp downturn in new construction.
The agency estimates that 1.4m b/d was funnelled into China’s fast-expanding network of storage facilities, deeming it “an unprecedented build”. Shipments were heavily concentrated at Chinese ports nearest the new reserve basins at Tianjin and Huangdao. “We think this is a big deal,” said one official.
China accounts for 40pc of all growth in world oil demand, so any serious boost to its strategic reserves tightens the global supply almost instantly and pushes up the spot price.
Michael Lewis, head of commodities at Deutsche Bank, said Chinese officials at Beijing's Strategic Reserve Bureau are playing the oil market tactically, or “buying the dips” in trader parlance. They add to stocks whenever Brent crude prices fall to key support lines, as occurred earlier this Spring. This is currently around $105.
“It's is very similar to what they have been doing with copper. Whenever it drops below $7,000 (a tonne), they see it as a buying opportunity. They do the same with agricultural commodities,” he said.
China is putting a floor of sorts underneath the global oil market, calling into question predictions by the big oil trading banks that prices will deflate this year as more crude comes on stream from Libya, Iraq, and Iran, and as the US keeps adding supply shale.
The strategic buying could go on for a long time since China is rapidly expanding its reserve capacity from 160m barrels to 500m by 2020, with sites scattered across the country.
John Mitchell from Chatham House says China has stocks to cover 46 days of imports compared to 209 for the US, based on estimates from last year. India is acutely vulnerable to any disruption with just 12 days cover. The minimum safe threshold for OECD states is deemed to be 90 days.
Chinese officials are increasingly nervous as the the country's import dependency keeps climbing, reaching 60pc level this year. This is deemed to be the danger line. Planners have been studying closely what would happen in a global conflict such as full-blown Mid-East war or closure of the Straints of Hormuz. East Asia is now far more vulnerable to Mid-East oil disruptions than the US.
China's stock-build comes as the West steps up threats of “Stage 3” sanctions against Russia, to be triggered if the Kremlin continues to disrupt the Ukrainian elections through paramilitary proxies in the Donbass region.
Sources in Washington say the US may include Russian oil companies such as Rosneft among the mix of targets. This is thought less disruptive for European allies than quarantine measures against the gas monopoly Gazprom since gas is mostly supplied by pipeline contracts and is much harder to replace. The US has already sanctioned Rosneft’s chairman Igor Sechin, the chief architect of the Kremlin’s energy policy over the last decade.
Mr Lewis said any move against the energy industry would risk a disruption of physical trading in oil since most banks would be unwilling to handle the transactions. “It would effectively tighten supply and be bullish for crude prices,” he said.
A parallel drama is unfolding in South East Asia where China is building what appears to be an air base on the Johnson Reef just off the Philippine coast. China is also at daggers drawn with Vietnam after towing an oil rig into waters off the Vietnamese coast in the South China Sea. This has erupted in a wave of anti-Chinese violence over recent days, killing an estimated 20 people in Vietnamese cities and prompting China to evacuate 3,000 of its citizens.
There is the risk of a dangerous tit-for-tat spiral.The Chinese media has been calling for action to “teach Vietnam a lesson”, echoing the language of Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping before he launched an attack on Vietnam in the disastrous war of 1979.
Oil experts says there is no sign yet that China is hoarding diesel or boosting output of refined products such as jet fuel, the sorts of indicators that might point to preparations for possible conflict.
China’s oil imports in April mostly came from Russia, Angola, and Iraq. The IEA said there were also 615,000 b/d of shipments from Iran, a huge increase that underscores just how far global sanctions have eroded since Iran’s new leader Hassan Rouhani reached a preliminary deal with the major powers over the country’s nuclear programme.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-17/over-3000-chinese-evacuated-boat-plane-vietnams-anti-china-riots-escalate-taiwan-als
Over 3000 Chinese Evacuated (By Boat & Plane) As Vietnam's Anti-China Riots Escalate; Taiwan Also On "High Alert"
China began evacuating hundreds of its nationals from Vietnam (via at least 2 planes and 5 ships) as the anti-China protests have become increasingly deadly following Beijing's attempt to deploy an oil drill in Vietnamese disputed waters (detailed here, here, here, and here)...
- *CHINA SENDING 5 SHIPS TO VIETNAM TO EVACUATE CHINESE: XINHUA
- *HUNDREDS OF VIETNAMESE SECURITY IN CENTRAL HO CHI MINH CITY
- *VIETNAM PRIME MINISTER ISSUES DIRECTIVE TO PREVENT PROTESTS
- *VIETNAM GOVT TAKES ACTION TO PREVENT RIOTS: BINH
Hundreds of police and security forces are in central Ho Chi Minh city and the Chinese consulate is under heavy guard. Tensions across the ASEAN region are growung as Taiwan is on "high alert" but the bloc’s inability to craft a united response to Chinese aggression signals a further decline in its regional clout.
Libya, China and Ukraine, all interesting updates. I have no sense of who the good or bad guys are in Libya but interesting anyway. Not completely sure on the China Vietnam issue either though I know we have been trying very hard to keep China penned in and Vietnam appears to do our bidding. And we lost that war, strange. Ukraine updates were encouraging.
ReplyDeleteHave a great day, looks to be very nice though on the cool side.
In Libya , it would appear the military ( or some portion of the military ) , has reached the limits of its patience with the Militias and also ineffective Government..... so they have decided to right the ship themselves.
DeleteChina and Russia working in tandem is really the story of 2014 ( let's see what comes forth from the big meetings this week though ) , the Gas Deal still isn't completed and the issue allegedly holding things up is pricing ! China's muscle flexing really becomes interesting in the context of ASEAN politics , whether the Association wants to tangle with China ( even as China seeks ASEAN to remain Neutral on territorial claims scrums. )
Ukraine seems to be settling into a lull with the 5/25 vote now clearly in view ( less than a week away ! ) Germany and France ( UK too ) seem to reaching their limits with sanctions ( even as former Eastern Bloc nations and US cry for more ) , the knowledge that the big three of Europe get the short end of the sanction game stick hasn't been lost on Business Leaders , even as their political leaders are barking loudly - but not really trying to bite .
Does seem cool today but it is sunny ! Enjoy your day !