Saturday, April 12, 2014

Gold and Silver Report April 12 , 2014 -- Data , News and views focusing on the precious metals !

Harvey Organ snippets....

Friday, April 11, 2014

April 11.2014/Gld loses another 1.8 tonnes as this gold heads to Shanghai/no change in silver SLV/gold and silver hold in price/Blythe Masters under investigation/Poor earnings from JPMorgan/Putin may win again as the west looks to pay the Ukrainian bill/Bourses around the globe spill red ink!!

Gold closed down $1.40  at $1318.70 (comex to comex closing time ). Silver was down 15 cents to $19.93  

In the access market tonight at 5:15 pm
gold: $1318.50
silver:  $19.98

Gold and silver were held in check today as the global bourses plummeted.  All major bourses were deeply in the red.  Remember that bankers never allow gold to run up for two consecutive days so the fix was on today and I believe, under the pressure, gold and silver performed admirably against criminal banker manipulation.

Today JPMorgan released their earnings and it was dismal as mortgage applications faltered as did fixed income. For the past 5 years, Main Street suffered as QE went basically to the bankers.  Now everybody is seeing the economy contract due to nothing to invest in and lack of any good collateral.

Our Ice- Queen Blythe Masters seems to be in hot water with the prosecutors.
I love the line that she has two body guards with her at all times.  Not sure if they are to protect her or to service her but whatever it is she is one frightened gal.  

In Russian/Ukrainian affairs it looks like Putin will win again as Europe must come up with huge money to pay for the gas the Ukraine bought from Russia.


The total gold comex open interest rose  today by 4,195 contracts from 364,183  up to 368,378  with gold up by $14.60 yesterday.   The  big active contract month is April and here the OI fell by another 6 contracts  to 841. We had 16 contracts served yesterday, so we finally gained  10 contracts or 1 000 additional oz that will stand for the April contract month. The next non active delivery month is May and here the OI fell by 66 contracts down to 2,105.    The next big active delivery month is June and here the OI fell by 2149 contracts.   The OI for June stands at 231,513. The estimated volume today was pitiful at 93,259 contracts .    The confirmed volume yesterday was slightly better  at 134,956.  The CME has scared away many of the gold traders.

The total silver Comex OI fell slightly by 795 contracts despite   silver being up  in price to the tune of 28  cents yesterday. The total OI now rests tonight at 162,203 contracts. It is surprising that we are nearing record levels of open interest happening at the same time as silver is down 61% from its all time high of $49.00 per oz. There is no doubt that some entity is trying to corner the silver comex.  They are patient waiting for their signal to take delivery on all of their silver longs that they have dutifully collected over the past 2 years. The April contract month saw it's OI surprisingly rise by 12 contracts up to 40. We had 14 notices served upon yesterday so in essence we  gained 26 silver contracts or 130,000 additional ounces will stand for the April contract month. Somebody is in urgent need of physical silver.  The big May contract month saw it's OI fall by only 6,216 contracts down to 72,819. We have 3 weeks before first day notice and the OI for May is extremely high for this time in the delivery cycle.  The estimated volume today was fair 38,468 contracts. The confirmed volume  yesterday  was a monstrous  at 81,805 contracts. (in oz, yesterday's level is 409.0 million oz or approximately 50% of annual silver production globally.  Thus in the last two days over 100% of annual silver production traded at the comex. 


And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

April 11.2014: tonnage:  804.42/ a loss of 1.8 tonnes of gold.  It now seems that this is the last source of gold for the Chinese who use this avenue to retrieve gold to Shanghai via the refiners of Switzerland.  Judging from the return of backwardation in the front two months, and that all months are as close to negative as possible, it looks to me that our banker friend's days are numbered

April 10.2013:  tonnage 806.22/ a loss of .26 tonnes of gold (probably to pay for fees)

April 9.2013:  tonnage 806.48/no change in inventory

April 8.2014:   tonnage 806.48/a loss of 2.7 tonnes of gold inventory

April 7.2014:  tonnage 809.18  no change in gold inventory at the GLD

April 4. 2014: tonnage 809.18/ a loss of 1.8 tonnes of gold at the GLD

April 3.2013: tonnage 810.98 tonnes/no change in inventory levels at the GLD


At 3:30 pm we get the COT report.  I strongly believe that the data is compromised somewhat, but for the sake of completeness, I  provide the data and let you decide:

First the Gold COT:

Gold COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators
Change from Prior Reporting Period

Small Speculators

Open Interest



non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period

COT Gold Report - Positions as of
Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Our large specs;

Those large specs that have been long in gold pitched a huge 8459 contracts from their long side
as the bankers orchestrated a weak raid this week.

Those large specs that have been short in gold added another 3087 contracts to their short side.
(Why on earth are the commercials letting the specs off the hook?)


Those commercials that have been long in gold added a rather large 8,379 contracts to their long side.
Those commercials that have been short in gold covered another 3907 contracts from their short side.

Small specs:

Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched a smallish 656 contracts from their long side
Those small specs that have been short in gold added 84 contracts to their short side.

Conclusion;  bullish again as commercials go net long by   12,286 contracts.


And now silver

Strange data!!

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators
Small Speculators
Open Interest
non reportable positions
Positions as of:

Tuesday, April 08, 2014
  © Silv

Our large specs;

Those large specs that are long in silver added another 897 contracts to their long side
Those large specs that have been short in silver covered 861 contracts from their short side as they are getting a little antsy as to rise in OI and what it meant.

Our commercials:

Those commercials that have been long in silver and close to the physical scene added a huge 6441 contracts to their long side

Those commercials that have been short in silver added another 6904 contracts to their short side as
these guys are taking on some powerful entity buying silver contract longs.

Small specs:

Those small specs that have been long in silver covered a tiny 212 contracts from their long side
Those small specs that have been short in silver added another 1083 contracts to their short side.

Conclusion:  a little bearish as the commercials go slightly net short by 463 contracts.


China's Demand For Gold Has Trapped The West's Central Banks

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity,
Every once in a while, an Off the Cuff interview is so important that we decide to make it available to the entire public. This is one of those occasions.
In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Alasdair Macleod build on the insights laid out in Chris' recent mega-report last week on gold: The Screaming Fundamentals for Owning Gold. And specifically, they delve deeply into the poorly-understood topic of why Chinese demand has become such a game changer in recent years.
In my opinion, this podcast offers the best clarity I've heard to-date in explaining:
  • what the true measurement of annual Chinese bullion demand actually is (hint: it's even bigger than you imagine)
  • what the implications of China's gold voraciousness will be
  • why Western central banks had to smash the price of gold last April
  • why Chinese demand exploded at these lower prices, putting the Fed and other Western central banks into a trap (kill the banks or kill their currencies)
  • why the Fed is desperate to keep the price low for as long as possible (and why this suppression will fail)
  • why the Eastern attitude towards gold will trump the West's
In regard to the last point, Alasdair pithily summarized a critical dynamic that, in my opinion, is as hugely important as it is under-appreciated:
In the rest of the world and particularly Asia, people do not think like we do. As far as they're concerned, gold is the only long term asset worth holding. It is the family pension fund. I like quoting the typical situation in India. I first went to India in 1965 and the price of gold at that stage in rupees was around about 170 rupees an ounce. Today it's about 100,000 rupees an ounce. And when you think that the young man getting married at that time -- he'll be a grandfather now -- he would have got a dowry from his wife's family which would have been in gold. His presents would have been gold. Every time they had children there would have been gold. Every time there's a festival there would be gold. Gold is the family pension fund. What other investment has gone from 170 rupees to 100,000 rupees over that period of time? Absolutely nothing! There isn't even an alternative like sensible equities or anything like that for them to play. Gold is the only way they can escape the devaluation of the rupee. And so no wonder it's so popular. That's the story all over Asia, by the way.

I think the financial press in the West, the mainstream media, basically they rely for their information on analysts in the bullion banks. And the bullion banks are always short. And so they always get a negative story. Universities teach people economics, the Keynesian variety and the monetarist variety. And there is an assumption that gold is no longer money. It is just a commodity with peculiar characteristics.

Now whether the West is right or wrong is not the point. The point is there are 4 billion people in Asia who have got a very old-fashioned view of gold, and they have become wealthy over the last twenty years. 

As soon as the elections are offer, India will cut its gold duty dramatically:

(courtesy Mineweb/Seth)

Pressure on India to cut gold duty mounts

A former central banker joins the chorus of those that say increasing gold imports would not harm the Indian economy.
Author: Shivom Seth
Posted: Friday , 11 Apr 2014 
The stage appears to be set for India to reduce import duty on gold.
Government data released on Friday showed that gold and silver imports have declined 40% to $33.46 billion in 2013-14, as compared to the $55.79 billion in 2012-13. India's exports have jumped a bit, while imports dipped by over 8% narrowing the trade deficit.
A sharp decrease in gold and silver imports has also helped narrow the trade gap to $138.59 billion from $190.33 billion, though crude oil imports continued to surge ahead.
Bimal Jalan, former governer with India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), told newspersons that if India's current account deficit (CAD) "is okay, and it is comfortable just now, there is no reason to control gold imports, particularly if (gold) prices are reasonable."
Stating that CAD could widen, the ex-banker added that he did not envisage a problem in the near future, given the current comfortable scenario.
Jalan said that there were multiple causes that were causing a worry to the government. "There are demand issues, (the threat of) China competition, then you have exchange rate issues, but as of now, the CAD outlook is good," he said.
Terming the gold curbs "a temporary measure," Jalan added, "we should try and do the best we can. Gold is not an asset that one wants to encourage holding because we want investments in real assets, but still there is no reason why those who want gold, cannot hold it."
The former central indicated that given the current low price of gold, if imports of the precious metal jump by 20% to 25% in the near term, it would not affect India's current account deficit.
A clear signal has been sent out that though the government prefers investment in other asset classes, they can no longer ignore the demand of the populace, to bring in more gold.
The Indian government had increased customs duty on gold to 10% and banned the import of gold coins and medallions, with the RBI linking imports of the metal to exports.
"Import duty of 10% that was slapped on inbound shipments of gold was aimed at narrowing the current account deficit. With India's 2013/14 CAD expected to be $35 billion, or about 2% of GDP, down from the historic high of 4.8% of GDP or $88.2 billion CAD in 2012-13, the writing is on the wall," said A Mehta, an official of a chambers body.
He added that gold imports had dropped from $7.7 billion in May 2013, to $1.4 billion in January this year. In contrast, the monthly run rate of gold imports, in value terms, has remained above $5 billion since January 2012. "Clearly, the government feels there is no need to continue restrictions on gold imports," said Mehta.
Sanjay Budhia, chairman of the Confederation of Indian Industry said that it is apparent from the recently released export data of March 2014, that "India has missed its export target of $325 billion for this fiscal, as currently it stands at $312 billion."
He added: "Factors that attributed to the slowdown in exports were the curb on gold imports, coupled with its direct impact on the jewellery export, exchange rate volatility and a steep hike in global oil prices. Exports to neighbouring China also slumped during March, which could be an indicator of the looming slowdown in global demand."

Stating that the "economic conditions in the US and the euro zone are not very favourable for exports", Budhia said the organisation hoped that the Indian government would help exporters, and address their problems on a priority basis.
Gold is imported into India to mainly meet the demand of the jewellery sector. According to figures from the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, cumulative gold jewellery exports from April 2013 to February 2014 slid 45.6% to $6.35 billion.
Exports of gold jewellery have taken a drubbing in 2013-14, with the Indian government's gold restrictions. Pankaj Parekh, vice chairman of the Council said a major part of the blame needed to placed at the door of the customs department, since there have been inordinate delays in releasing consignments of imported gold.
India’s gems and jewellery exports during February 2014 fell 8.2% to $3.14 billion from the $3.43 billion during February 2013. For the 11 month period ending February 2014, it fell 9.9% to $30.82 billion.
However, for the first time in fiscal 2013-14, exports of gold jewellery was in the positive, rising a measely 1.04% in February.
Exports of cut and polished diamonds too rose 16.11% to $2.16 billion in February 2014, while it rose 20.5% in the 11 month period to $18.14 billion. Silver jewellery exports rose 45.33% to $84.1 million in February 2014 and rose 89% in the 11 month period to $1.35 billion, data showed.

Bill Holter comments on all the strange things we are seeing in European bond yields plus other strange things!

(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)

Some very strange stuff. Why?

Some very strange events have been quietly happening recently.  One set that sort of snuck up on me because I hadn't looked recently is that Italy's 10 yr. bond rates have now sunk to all time lows while Spain is now paying less on 5 yr. notes than is the U.S..  How is this even possible?  Both countries have record unemployment, real estate bubbles that have been popped with loan delinquencies at all time highs and banking systems teetering.  Italy's 3rd largest bank Monte di Pasci (also the oldest bank in the world) is now reported to be selling new stock...and this after being bailed out 3 times in 3 years. .  Who in their right mind would be a buyer of this stock ?

  As for all time low Italian yields and Spain having a lower 5 year rate that U.S. Treasuries,  does this make sense?  Again, who in their right mind would be buying their paper?  Investing is supposed to be "risk versus reward" adjusted, since Spain cannot simply print Euro's to make payment as we can print there not just a tad bit more default risk here?  Has China offloaded $50 billion worth of Treasuries in Dec. (they did) and gone on a buying spree of Spanish and Italian paper?  I highly doubt it but this is just one of the crazy rationalizations out there.  Another theory is that deflation is setting in in the Eurozone and this would make "bonds" more valuable...really?  Don't the bonds have to actually pay the interest to make them more valuable?  In a true deflation do you believe that Spain or Italy's economy would be insulated and able to make their payments ? 

  Please remember that it was only 6-9 months ago that both Spain and Italy were on a "death watch" to see if their rates would pierce 7% to the upside.  It was thought that mathematically this magic number of 7% would prove to be a line in the sand that if crossed would bankrupt either or both Spain and Italy.  Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't but as it stands now investors cannot get enough of their paper.  Spanish and Italian bonds are now being treated as pristine credits with little to no risk.  I am curious though, how would we know if some (most?) of this paper ended up hidden somewhere on the Fed's balance sheet...or on the balance sheets of large banks with the help of Fed "loans"?  Just a thought.

  We have also had the curtain pulled back ever so slightly and allowed the thought of "fraud" and "market rigs" to be discussed.  If you think back 15 years ago, Enron was a fraud and there were prosecutions galore...or even further back when to the Savings and Loan crisis, many went to jail.  No one has gone to jail over the current crisis except a couple of hedge fund managers and "inside traders".  Why are we now hearing about Libor rigs, Gold rigs, Treasury and muni rigs, HFT stock rigs etc.?  Why has JP Morgan settled 8 or 9 cases and agreed to nearly $30 billion in fines if they "weren't guilty" which they have not ever admitted?  Why are seeing the "suicide of the week" in succession this year and another one this past week from former ABN AMRO CEO?  You remember them right?  They defaulted on customers last year and refused to ship out "held" gold...or maybe it wasn't so "held" after all?  Why are GOFO rates now again negative for the 5th time if theoretically this cannot ever happen as gold is money.  There is something very strange about "paying interest" to lend out your "money" or getting paid to borrow money don't you think ?
 It's even strange when you look at foreign policy and diplomacy.  Does anyone ever remember a foreign consulate (other than Iran in 1980) having a checked bounced?  To allegedly pay an insurance premium?  Or how about the way "we" are forcing Russia to NOT use dollars?  Wouldn't Russia have liked to do this on their own free will in the past...without any threats, sanctions or arm twisting?  Can you ever remember London or Frankfurt setting up exchanges with China where yuan will settle and dollars nowhere to be seen?  Do you ever remember Australia cutting deals with China directly without the use of dollars to settle?  Or both Israel and Saudi Arabia making public their anger with the U.S.?  It has gotten so bizarre that sitting U.S. president Obama even described Paul Ryan's effort at an austerity "a stinkburger" last week.
 None of this is "normal stuff" and these are not normal times.  I think that it is important to step back for a moment and ask yourself "why". 

 Why is everything different or changed from what we are used to?  Why now?  Why, why, why?  Because we are living in the throes of the greatest financial and social change in at least 100 years that's "why".  We are living through the greatest financial tug of war of all time...but "they" don't want you to know it.  Who is "they"?  "They" are the combatants.  They are both sides, they are both the white hats and the black hats.  They are those trying to effect the change and those trying to deflect it.  Those supporting change want to pre position themselves ahead of time at the best prices and largest volumes that they can get away with without the public stampeding both the entrance and exit doors.  Those supporting the status quo are "hoping" beyond hope that something will come along to save the day, in the meantime they don't want a public 
stampede because this would immediately spell the end to the status quo.

  By now I think that you know where I stand, the status quo will be broken whether because the "rigs" break or are broken.  Please don't just take the news as is and not question why.  As I mentioned above, there are many "why's" to ask, probably the most important of all is "why has this been made public and why now"?  Of course, a hardy dose of skepticism is always a good policy because much of what we are allowed to see or hear is specifically meant for our (mal)consumption.  I highly recommend that a "BS" filter be used at all times ! 

 Regards,  Bill Holter


Trading oil outside of dollar might break gold price suppression, Roberts says

9:07a ET Saturday, April 12, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Acceptance by energy producers of currencies other than the U.S. dollar well might destroy the Federal Reserve's ability to suppress the price of gold, former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts tells King World News:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

IMF lies about U.S. and U.K. economies, von Greyerz tells KWN

1:25p ET Friday, April 11, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz today explains to King World News how the International Monetary Fund's rosy evaluation of the U.S. and U.K. economies is a huge lie:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

HFT in Comex gold is like the old London Gold Pool, Kaye tells KWN

8:10a ET Friday, April 11, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Hong Kong fund manager William Kaye tells King World News that high-frequency trading in gold on the New York Commodities Exchange is a variant of the London Gold Pool of the 1960s, another mechanism of gold price suppression. Kaye concurs with your secretary/treasurer that "controlling gold is the primary mechanism of controlling the world." An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Alasdair Macleod: Gold and bail-ins

8a ET Friday, April 11, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Even allocated gold probably isn't safe in an insolvent bank being restructured under government supervision, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today, especially since Western central banks may no longer have the gold they long have used to rescue bullion banks in trouble. Macleod's commentary is headlined "Gold and Bail-Ins" and it's posted at GoldMoney's Internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Koos Jansen.......

New Physical Gold Exchange In Singapore

I was tipped of by one of my readers on a new gold exchange operating in Singapore; Allocated Bullion Solutions Singapore. After taking a look on their website I asked their public relations desk for the details of their business. Websites can be incomplete and I wanted to be sure on what kind of exchange it was. They kindly responded whereupon a comprehensive Q&A followed.

 Allocated Bullion Solutions

Who are the customers of ABS?

ABS targets customers in the global investment sector.  We work with institutional clients like bank and non-bank dealers, refiners, private banks, financial institutions and fund platforms to enable them to offer physical gold to their clients.

What kind of products does ABS offer? (allocated accounts, unallocated accounts, futures, forwards, spot contracts, deferred trading, leasing, etc.)

We facilitate physical gold trading for 1Kg and large format LBMA good for delivery bars and coins (subject to minimums) in any loco location.

What will the unique services be of ABS?

ABS provides end-to-end solutions to the investment sector for physical gold trading. Our model is based on leveraging established processes, solutions and best in class technology partners that exist for other asset classes and bringing them to the physical gold sector.

Can customers take physical delivery? If so, is that only in Singapore or also in other places?

We are based in Singapore, however via our global liquidity relationships and logistic/custodian partners, we can facilitate physical gold trading for delivery in any location where they operate.

Will customers of ABS be able to trade 24 hours a day?

We are a hybrid voice and electronic broker. We are live as a voice broker and have just launched the beta of our electronic platform. We support our client’s time zone requirements.

Singapore bay ABS

Does ABS have its own vaults?

No. We support our client’s current custodial arrangements. Alternatively for those that do not have such arrangements, ABS can act as custodian with LBMA vaults and depositories as sub-custodians.

What are the targets of ABS?

According to World Gold Council reports published for the full year 2013, investment demand for physical gold was approximately 1,600 tonnes, an increase of 15% compared to 2012. We want to facilitate the growing demand for physical gold in Asia.

In what currencies will ABS bullion be quoted?

Currently, all prices are quoted in USD.

What kind of trade data (volume, delivery, etc) will ABS publish on its website?

Physical gold bar (1kg/ 400oz) prices.

What was the incentive to start ABS?

Asia’s growing demand in physical gold bar investment with a lack of infrastructure in the region to support this area.

How will trading be conducted on ABS? Open-outcry, electronic or by phone?

Trades are currently conducted via voice brokerage system. Electronic trading will be available when our institutional trading platform is launched.

Click here for the latest brochure from ABS.

Investment Research  Dynamics......

New Derivatives Rules Rescinded To Help Banks Make More Money

The rules originally established to help protect the system from bank greed and fraud connected to derivatives were just rescinded by the same Basel Committee that drafted the original blueprint – article link.  The original rules would have significantly curtailed the ability of banks to underwrite the derivatives they sell to pension funds and hedge funds. It would have required that the banks put up a lot more in reserve capital, which in turn would have forced the banks to charge a much higher premium – or cost to the buyers – for the derivatives it sells. Make no mistake about it, AIG and Goldman would not have blown up if both parties had been forced to properly reserve against their derivatives contracts.
The financial collapse in 2008 was largely triggered because banks systematically under-priced the risk premium built-in to derivatives.  The original rules were designed to help limit the disaster caused by the under-reserved derivatives which blew up Lehman, AIG and Goldman and triggered the massive bailouts.  If the risk premium had been properly priced in a way that reflected the degree of risk embedded in the derivatives deals, it would have made most derivative contracts unaffordable to the end-user – pensions, hedge funds, municipalities, insurance companies etc. In other words, the new rules were established to protect the system from extreme greed and risk.
But if banks were forced to properly put up reserve capital to protect against the risks for which derivatives are used, most end-users would never buy them. This in turn would shut off the spigot to Wall Street’s most profitable business line. The change in the rules now means that the banks can party on as usual and make huge profit spreads on the derivative ticking time bombs they dump into  the financial system.
Again, make no mistake about it, this rule change is going to lead to another financial system collapse.  Only this time everyone will be forced to contribute directly to the bailout of the big Wall Street banks in the form of “bail-ins.”  Now we know why the bail-in rules are being transitioned and we know why big banks are moving their derivatives exposure up to their bank holding company level.
Anyone who understands what is going on here and continues to keep their money inside the financial system is either extremely naive or tragically stupid.  Forewarned is forearmed.

Jesse's crossroads cafe.....

11 APRIL 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Flight To Safety

The miners continued to get pounded along with tech momentum stocks as this week turned out badly for equities overall.

Gold is still outperforming silver, and has the taste of a minor 'flight to safety' in the price action.

The Comex warehouses continue to be a foggy snoozer, and stopped contracts are a formidable percentage of the deliverable gold category.

But the Comex is a shell game, and so I am not looking for things to start there, but to perhaps surface there once they start overseas with a break in the physical deliveries chain, despite the continuing assurances from the team of Shill & Troll that it is all in your mind, and that such a thing could never happen.

Have a pleasant weekend.