Commentary on the economic , geopolitical and simply fascinating things going on. Served occasionally with a side of snark.
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Mt Gox updates - showing the priorities of Mt Gox , note that the ongoing protests in front of MT Gox's offices were shutdown by Japanese Police ( ten people involved , peaceful protests ) ......but to the point of the protests - Mt.Gox promised to get its house in order, and get back to the Bitcoin community and its users Thursday February 20 , 2014 It did at least post a completely worthless update to an update to an update ......, but here's what Mt Gox failed to do -- they didn’t open up withdrawals, or set a firm timetable as to when users might be able to get their currency off the exchange....... and that's why they saw the price of bitcoin on the failing Exchange fall fro the low 260's to 91 in hours ! And note - no mention if when even the next update may come ! ! Consider whether Mt Gox work around currently available at Bitcoin Builder makes sense for you if you are a " stuck " bitcoin customer .....
The small group of protestors outside Mt. Gox in Tokyo were moved on late yesterday by Japanese police, and warned not to return without a ‘demonstration license’.
Organizer Kolin Burges said the police were called not by Mt. Gox, but one of the building’s other tenants who had reportedly had enough of the protestors’ week-long presence at the building.
Mt. Gox management was also said to be irritated by the ongoing sit-in, claiming “security problems” caused by the protest and other technical issues were slowing its progress at fixing its bitcoin withdrawal problem. The company had previously posted a notice on its support page claiming to be moving location.
The protests received attention from both bitcoin fans and the Japanese media
This effectively ends the protest in its current form, since the group is unlikely to secure the license. For the most part the protest consisted only of two people, though they had been joined at other stages during the week by curious bitcoiners and financial media reporters. One of the Japanese language signs the pair was holding invited locals to join in and gave the street address.
Growing numbers
Burges said there were around 10 people standing near the building when police arrived. He explained:
“We went to the police station for a license and were told that for a demonstration license you need to move along a pre-planned route, with start and end points. So it looks like we cannot get a license and can’t go back there.”
Anyone walking through Tokyo on any given weekend is bound to encounter a rally or two, many of which do not appear to be moving, and which can be quite rowdy. The most common demonstration themes are anti-nuclear power or North Korea, plus the infamous loudspeaker buses operated by the far-right uyoku. The Russian, Chinese and US embassies are popular rallying points, and all have a permanent riot squad presence.
Burges indicated he still wanted to continue the protest in some form, but would have to think of other tactics. A physical presence may or may not be involved, though it is generally considered unwise to tempt fate with the Japanese police after a warning.
The price of a bitcoin on Mt. Gox continues to slide, even falling below the $100 mark at one point and hovering around that amount since. Most price aggregators, including CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index, have removed Mt. Goxfrom their averages. The average global price is a comparatively robust $564, but still much lower than the $900 or so before the current problems began to get attention.
Mt. Gox at Death’s Door? Bitcoin price slips below $100, before rebounding slightly
The problems continue to pile up for the beleaguered Mt. Gox, where the price of a single Bitcoin briefly plummeted to below $100 after the exchange claimed that “security issues” were the reason it’s unable to resume withdrawal capability to its customers as planned, reports CoinDesk. Mt. Gox posted a note on its website, stating that the resumption of withdrawals has been delayed because its had to relocate its headquarters to another site in Tokyo.
“In addition to the technical issue, this week we have experienced some security problems, and as a result we had to relocate MtGox to our previous office building in Shibuya. … The move, combined with some other security and technical challenges, pushed back our progress,” stated Mt. Gox.
Mt. Gox users have been left in limbo for more than a week now since these technical issues cropped up. Formerly the most preeminent Bitcoin exchange in the world, the virtual currency was trading at over $1,000 per Bitcoin on the platform just one month ago. However, things quickly fell apart earlier this month, when Mt. Gox’s developers noticed a problem with their withdrawal approval software that led to them suspending withdrawals of both fiat and BTC on the site. The developers later said the problem was due to a known bug called “transaction malleability”, which meant people could trick the exchange into double-sending withdrawals. This bug was actually identified in 2011, but it wasn’t until Mt. Gox publicized it that it became well known, briefly forcing other exchanges to suspend withdrawals too. However, while other exchanges were able to resume withdrawals after a few days, Mt. Gox has so far been unable to resolve its own issues.
Now, with the exchange seemingly about to fall over the precipice into oblivion, the cryptocurrency has fallen to lows that haven’t been seen in over six months.
Currently, Mt.Gox’s Bitcoin has rebounded a little and is trading at $140.01 at the time of writing. However, this is well short of the average Bitcoin price across other exchanges, which sits at $583.20 at the time of writing, according to the weighted average onBitcoinaverage.com.
Mt. Gox’s problems are thought to have contributed to Bitcoin’s overall decline in value – the cryptocurrency was trading at over $700 earlier this month – although it’s safe to say that it appears to be weathering the storm. Indeed, the fact that prices have stayed high on exchanges like BTC-e and Bitstamp would seem to indicate that Bitcoin is surprisingly strong these days, and able to maintain relative stability better than it has before.
It remains to be seen if Mt. Gox will recover from this disaster, but it’s clear that its owners aren’t about to give up yet. The site is still actively trading in spite of the lack of withdrawal capability, and if it can resolves these problems then those who’re buying Bitcoin are getting themselves an absolute steal, as the price would presumably shoot back up to normal levels if and when they’re able to cash out.
Then again, perhaps a collapse might be a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run. Despite its status, Mt. Gox has a history of incompetence having experienced downtime on more than one occasion in the past, and it’s done little good for Bitcoin’s reputation. If Mt. Gox really were to fall, with any luck it’ll be replaced by better organized exchanges that are far more reliable. If so, that would quickly put an end to much of the negative press about the cryptocurrency right now.
Bitcoin’s Value Falls 10% As Faltering Mt.Gox Exchange Continues To Implode
Mt.Gox promised to get its house in order, and get back to the Bitcoin community and its users today. It did, but didn’t open up withdrawals, or set a firm timetable as to when users might be able to get their currency off the exchange.
In response, the price of Bitcoin on Mt.Gox has cratered, again. It now rests just above $110. That’s down from around $260 the day before. Users are betting more heavily now that their Bitcoin on the exchange is never coming back.
This turbulence has not left the larger Bitcoin market unmolested. According to the averaged Bitcoin price, the dollar cost of a Bitcoin has shed around 10 percent of its value today, falling from $625 to $560. Mt.Gox, previously trading at around a 50 percent deficit, is now trading at one-fifth the regular price.
Why would Mt.Gox bring down the value of Bitcoin on other exchanges? The failure of Mt.Gox highlights what sort of risk unregulated markets might entail. And in frankness Bitcoin has been on a slow deflate tip all year. The average Bitcoin price spiked over $900 in January, before settling into a pattern of decline.
For now, enjoy some irony (screenshot taken today):
A new market will allow Mt. Gox customers to trade funds in their exchange accounts for bitcoin, effectively allowing bitcoin withdrawals despite an official freeze.
The service, Bitcoin Builder, has also created an arbitrage opportunity for traders who wish to exploit the growing spread between the price of bitcoin on Mt. Gox and other major exchanges.
According to the market’s founder Josh Jones, some 14,500 BTC (about $8.1m) worth of trades have been executed since it was set up on 11th Feb.
A widening spread
Bitcoin Builder works by taking advantage of the widening spread between the price of bitcoin on Mt. Gox and other exchanges. The spread has grown as Mt. Gox’s withdrawal freeze stretches on. At the time of writing, for example, 1 BTC was trading for $123.56 on Mt. Gox compared to $566.20 on BitStamp.
Traders on Bitcoin Builder can sell bitcoins in their Mt. Gox accounts on the Bitcoin Builder market at the prevailing price. One bitcoin in a Mt. Gox account was trading for 0.38 BTC on Bitcoin Builder at the time of writing.
If the same bitcoin from Mt. Gox could theoretically be traded on another exchange, like BitStamp, it would be worth just 0.22 BTC. In other words, selling Mt. Gox bitcoins on Bitcoin Builder yields a 73% premium over the theoretical open market rate. Jones said:
“I was in the withdrawal queue for Mt. Gox when all this happened. I was basically a user who wanted an exchange like this to exist myself.”
Bitcoin Builder works because Mt. Gox is still allowing transfers between accounts on the exchange. To sell bitcoin, users must therefore send coins to Bitcoin Builder’s Mt. Gox account. They will then receive bitcoin in a wallet of their choice.
Only users with ‘verified’ or ‘trusted’ accounts at Mt. Gox can make transfers to another account on the exchange. The new exchange charges 2% for each transaction.
Bitcoin Builder also allows traders to buy the discounted Mt. Gox bitcoins. These traders must deposit coins with Bitcoin Builder and then receive Mt. Gox bitcoins that are held in Bitcoin Builder’s account on the exchange.
Traders on Bitcoin Builder must also submit identity documents before they can start making transactions.
The Gox question
Trades on Bitcoin Builder hinge on Mt. Gox’s future. Customers who are selling their Mt. Gox bitcoins on Bitcoin Builder are taking a 78% discount on the price of their coins in exchange for the certainty of holding funds that are not subject to Mt. Gox’s withdrawal restrictions.
Although the exchange has said the withdrawal freeze is due to technical problems and that it will be lifted soon, customers appear to be losing their confidence that the exchange will do as it says. This is reflected in the plummeting price of bitcoin to US dollars on Mt. Gox.
Then there are the arbitrageurs who are able to exploit the spread between prices at Mt. Gox and other exchanges so long as the withdrawal freeze stays in place.
These traders may be depositing fiat into a Mt. Gox account in order to buy more discounted bitcoins and then offloading them on Bitcoin Builder. With bitcoins in hand, they can then make a profit selling on another major exchange.
However, if Mt. Gox were to announce more serious problems — such as insolvency, for example — then Bitcoin Builder’s trading volume would vanish. Jones said:
“If Mt. Gox really is insolvent, or if they somehow freeze Bitcoin Builder’s account, or if they say that some of these bitcoins turned out to be fake because of transaction malleability, then there’s going to be a lot of angry people [on Bitcoin Builder].”
Jones himself is betting that Mt. Gox is solvent and that it is indeed suffering from the technical problems it claims it is experiencing.
“There is a saying, ‘never attribute to malice that which can adequately explained by incompetence’. Mt Gox is not Google or Apple. But they are a real company and Karpeles has made loads of money over the last few years. So he’s not just going to shut it down,” Jones said.
Other news items........
Central Bank of Jordan Blocks Financial Companies from Bitcoin
It was the Central Bank of Jordan’s (CBJ) turn to issue a digital currency warning this week, advising the public of the risks associated with the use of the financial tools, and blocking financial companies from engaging in bitcoin business.
“Recently, a global phenomenon of trading a virtual currency called bitcoin became active around the world,” the bank noted, adding:
“CBJ seeks to protect citizens and the investors, by warning them that virtual currencies are not legal tender and there is no obligation on any central bank in the world or any government to exchange its value for real money issued by them nor backed by underlying international commodities or gold.”
The Bank’s executive director of its payment services department, Maha Bahu, told The Jordan Times that the Kingdom’s banks, financial companies, payment processors and currency exchangers had also received a circular “prohibiting them from dealing with virtual currencies, particularly in bitcoins”.
She said the CBJ had been “following the issue of bitcoin very closely over the past two months”. Another official source told the paper that some people in Jordan and around the region were already trading digital currencies “using phoney names”.
Locals undeterred
A member of the Jordan Bitcoin Group told CoinDesk they were not too discouraged by the announcement, and would continue to advocate for bitcoin in the local media:
“The warning is unfortunate, but it isn’t stopping small businesses and merchants from accepting bitcoin. This Saturday, a cafe started accepting bitcoin, and is already attracting new customers.”
The CBJ’s statement is the latest in a string of similar decrees to come out of central banking authorities since the end of last year, and the third we’ve seen from the Middle East after the nearby central banks of Lebanon and Israel issued warnings on 19th December and 19th February, respectively.
Central banks and bitcoin
The central bank statements, which have ranged in tone from advisory to graver warnings of illegal activity and even bans, have all included the common themes that bitcoin and others are not officially regarded as currencies, cannot be guaranteed by central banks and may suffer dramatic price fluctuations.
However, bitcoin and digital currency news has been scarce from the Middle East, so the overall affect of the announcement is perhaps unclear.
Other than the bank warnings, the only other story to emerge recently was Dubai’s Pizza Guys starting to accept bitcoin just a few days ago.
I hope the Mt Gox situation is resolved soon, one way or another.
I'm wondering if Putin can't salvage a win out of the situation in the Ukraine. Maybe a breakup, leaving Putin with the Russian leaning half and the natural gas pipelines while leaving the other half broke and with the west having to support them, I'm not sure geography would support that outcome but just a thought I had.
Hey Kev - Mt Gox work around ( Bitcoin Builder ) seems to be an escape route for roach motel Mt Goxers , at least for now. Mt Gox really just has a matter of days to allow full resumption of all functions for their customers at this point.
Ukraine split seems plausible at this time as the Government ha lost control and the military will not support any clampdown on protesters . Russian supporters exist within eastern provinces and of course that's where Russian port is located. I can't see russia allowing control of vital interests occur even if their puppet is forced out.
For russia to continue control of gas flow to europe , control of entire Ukraine country will be needed.. check the map at the link below.....
The problems continue to pile up for the beleaguered Mt. Gox, where the price of a single Bitcoin briefly plummeted to below $100 after the exchange claimed that “security issues” were the reason it’s unable to resume withdrawal capability to its customers as planned, reports CoinDesk. Mt. Gox posted a note on its website, stating that the resumption of withdrawals has been delayed because its had to relocate its headquarters to another site in Tokyo.
Hi Fred,
ReplyDeleteI hope the Mt Gox situation is resolved soon, one way or another.
I'm wondering if Putin can't salvage a win out of the situation in the Ukraine. Maybe a breakup, leaving Putin with the Russian leaning half and the natural gas pipelines while leaving the other half broke and with the west having to support them, I'm not sure geography would support that outcome but just a thought I had.
Hey Kev - Mt Gox work around ( Bitcoin Builder ) seems to be an escape route for roach motel Mt Goxers , at least for now. Mt Gox really just has a matter of days to allow full resumption of all functions for their customers at this point.
ReplyDeleteUkraine split seems plausible at this time as the Government ha lost control and the military will not support any clampdown on protesters . Russian supporters exist within eastern provinces and of course that's where Russian port is located. I can't see russia allowing control of vital interests occur even if their puppet is forced out.
For russia to continue control of gas flow to europe , control of entire Ukraine country will be needed.. check the map at the link below.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-20/ukraine-situation-explained-one-map