Friday, January 10, 2014

Non Farm payroll huge miss on January 10 , 2014 - 74 , 000 jobs created as compared with expectations of 197 , 000 ! Unemployment drops 0.3 to 6.7 percent ! The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 62.8 percent in December, offsetting a change of the same magnitude in November. In December, the employment-population ratio was unchanged at 58.6 percent. ..... UI talks stall after Reid locks out Republican changes ! The done deal at least in the Senate may have come undone.....


Only 74K Jobs Added In December, Huge Miss To Expectations Of 197K: Weather Blamed

Tyler Durden's picture






So much for the recovery. Moments ago December nonfarms were revealed at just 74,000 a huge miss to expectations of 197,000 - the biggest miss Since December 2009. The drop from last month's revised 226K was the largest since December 2010. Other notables: the change in private payrolls was a tiny 87K vs expectations of 200K. Mfg payrolls added just 9K vs 15K expected and down from 31K. Average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.1% vs. Expected 0.2%. The good news: the unemployment rate plunged to 6.7% from 7.0%... For all the wrong reasons - the number of people not in the labor force rose to a record 91,808,000. As a reason for the plunge the BLS says there was a major weather effect seen on the forced part-time series, and notes the decline in healthcare which is rare and part of the sector slowing. Thank you Obamacare. And now bring on the Untaper.
Some of the highlights from the report:
The number of unemployed persons declined by 490,000 to 10.4 million  in December, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point  to 6.7 percent. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the  unemployment rate were down by 1.9 million and 1.2 percentage points,  respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.3 percent) and whites (5.9 percent) declined in December. The rates for adult  women (6.0 percent), teenagers (20.2 percent), blacks (11.9 percent), and  Hispanics (8.3 percent) showed little change. The jobless rate for Asians  was 4.1 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down by 2.5 percentage points  over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs decreased by 365,000 in December to 5.4 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.9 million, showed little change; these individuals accounted for 37.7 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 894,000 over the year. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 62.8 percent in December, offsetting a change of the same magnitude in November. In December, the employment-population ratio was unchanged at 58.6 percent. The labor force participation rate declined by 0.8 percentage point over the year, while the employment-population ratio was unchanged. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 7.8 million in December. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See table A-8.)

In December, 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 917,000 discouraged workers in December, down by 151,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in December had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
And the funniest part when one considers the surge in construction workers in the ADP report:
Construction employment edged down in December (-16,000).  However, in 2013, the industry added an average of 10,000 jobs per month. Employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors declined by 13,000 in December, possibly reflecting unusually cold weather in parts of the country.
So construction workers both surged and plunged due to the weather.




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UI talks stall after Reid locks out Republican changes

POSTED AT 8:01 AM ON JANUARY 10, 2014 BY ED MORRISSEY

  
The Senate left town in frustration after once-promising talks on compromise over an extension to unemployment benefits collapsed. Harry Reid had managed to get six Republicans to vote for a debate over the bill, but when he locked Republicans out from being able to offer amendments, his fragile coalition fell apart:
But hopes for a breakthrough were dashed when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) offered up a mostly Democratic-driven plan that would cover the $18 billion cost of extending the federal benefits through November.
Senate Republicans were further incensed when Reid told them he would not allow any amendments to the plan.
“I have been waiting here for more than 24 hours for a reasonable proposal by my Republican friends to pay for this. We don’t have one yet,” Reid said on the floor.
Republicans lashed out at Reid, arguing that they had put ideas forward and that all they wanted to do was sit down and work out a bipartisan agreement.
The move came at an odd time, since Democrats have demanded action from the GOP on an extension to these benefits, which expired in December. When enough Republicans voted to allow debate, the opportunity to pass an extension seemed at hand, which would have given Democrats some credit for driving to a solution.  Instead, Reid pulled a stunt that has become the norm during his tenure as Senate Majority Leader, called “filling the amendment tree,” which leave Republicans no opportunity to offer any changes for a vote.
Needless to say, GOP leadership and rank and file called foul:
What was shaping up to be a humdrum day on Capitol Hill turned into a firestorm as Majority Leader Harry Reid proposed his own plan to extend unemployment benefits and effectively blocked Republicans from having further say in the matter.
After several days of debate over how to pass a three-month extension of the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, Reid side-stepped negotiations with Republicans and offered a plan of his own to extend benefits through mid-November. In doing so he used a procedural tactic known as “filling the tree” to block Republicans from proposing any further amendments.
When Reid said at a Thursday afternoon press conference he was “cautiously optimistic,” that a long-term deal would soon be announced, what he came up with isn’t what Republicans had in mind.
“Sen. Reid announced today that he will obstruct ALL [sic] Republican amendments,” Don Stewart, a spokesman for Mitch McConnell, told BuzzFeed in an email. “It’s a real challenge to find a bipartisan accomplishment when one person shuts out the entire side of the aisle.”
“This is crassly political,” Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said. “They want to have something to talk about on the Sunday morning programs.”
Make no mistake about it: Harry Reid blew up any momentum that had developed on this bill. The act of blocking amendments is the main reason that Republicans have to resort to cloture fights, in order to get Reid to stop blocking minority input on legislation.  It’s the flip side of the filibuster fight, one that the media doesn’t cover nearly as much as it does with the supposed abuse of the filibuster itself.
Corker is absolutely right — this move is nothing but crassly political. Any amendments filed would still have to pass on a floor vote, so if they are too radical for Democrats, they won’t fly anyway. Why block them at all, then? In this case, Reid doesn’t want this issue to get resolved, because Democrats want to use it all year long in the run-up to the midterm elections. They are scared to death of what ObamaCare means for Senate control, and the surprise vote that allowed debate on the UI bill must have stunned Reid into thinking one of his alternate issues might end up defused long before they needed it to cast the GOP as uncaring about the chronically unemployed.
The question Republicans should ask is this: what is Harry Reid afraid of in potential Republican amendments? That they might actually carry some Democrats, and demonstrate that Reid is an extremist?