Friday, December 27, 2013

US 10Y Yield Hits 3.019% on December 27 , 2013 - Highest Since July 2011 ..... and yet , Stocks Surge For Sixth Straight Session ( as of the close of trading December 26 , 2013 ) ...... Two trains racing in opposite directions.....

( Hmm , who let the dogs out ? )

Gold & Silver Are Jumping And WTI Crude Breaks $100

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As the 10Y broke solidly through 3.00% so precious metals began to move and after testing $20 in Silver overnight a few times, both gold and silver have just run stops through key levels and are jumping like Twitter (or Bitcoin) for a few minutes. WTI Crude has also just broke $100.



Rob Kirby: When China Doesn't Get Their Gold - That's When This Ends GLD, MUX, TNR.v, GDX

  Greg Hunter has conducted another very interesting interview and Rob Kirby points out one more time to the elephant in the room - derivatives market, which can be on fire once interest rates will start going up. With 10 Year Treasury Yield crossing today 3.0% line in the sand we have very interesting time ahead of us. Now, finally, Gold goes vertical with US Dollar under pressure today.
"Rob Kirby of claims the U.S. "arbitrarily set the price of all strategic goods in the market." As an example of control, Kirby explains, "We have 10-year U.S. bond rates under 3%, and I would say the United States is actually insolvent, and we have countries like Greece where 10-year bonds are yielding over 9%." When does this end? Kirby points to look to the finite physical gold market and massive Chinese global buying for a clue. Kirby says, "When China doesn't get their gold, that's when this ends, and that might be when we have a war." Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Rob Kirby of"

US Dollar Crashed Below 80.00 - Will Gold Move Higher Now? GLD, MUX, TNR.v, GDX

 "FOREX market is moving very fast today with US dollar move nothing less than to be called crashing down below 80.00. It stands at the 79.78 at the moment of writing with Euro at 1.3861 and Pound at 1.6544. Will Gold finally move higher now from potential Double Bottom formed this year? 10 Year Treasuries are pushing the all-important level of 3.0% now. All metals are moving higher today with Copper up 1.58%."

Bloomberg: London Gold Vaults Are Virtually Empty GLD, MUX, TNR.v, GDX

Bloomberg quite suddenly provides some really interesting information about the state of the gold market and ongoing manipulations around it these days. Could the reports about JPMorgan being Net Long Gold now be correct in the end?

China October Gold Imports Surge To Second Highest Ever GLD, MUX, TNR.v, GDX

 "ZeroHedge reports that fly of Gold from the West To East continues at unprecedented rate and all the hype with Bitcoin and "Gold 2.0" can be safely put aside now. China uses every opportunity to accumulate the real physical Gold at these prices. Another surprise comes when China will report its Gold reserves. All Gold manipulation in the West just made the Fractional Gold Reserve System vulnerable to the Bank Run, when people will demand physical delivery. Bitcoin bust will bring this day very soon. There will be a very significant problem - There Are 69 Owners Per One Gold Oz at COMEX now."

And back to the lead........

( ten year at 3.022 % as of the time of this post - 8:44 AM ( EST )  )

US 10Y Yield Hits 3.019% - Highest Since July 2011

Tyler Durden's picture

While a few media outlets had premature releases yesterday, Bloomberg data just confirmed that for the second time this year,10Y US Treasury yields have crossed 3% (it was 3.005% in Sept 2013) breaking to thehighest since July 2011 (right before the yield collapse after the US debt-ceiling downgrade debacle). We are sure the media will proclaim this as 'proof' that the recovery is different this time, except the term structure continues to flatten (suggesting less faith in the future) and to spice things up 30Y mortgage rates have surged to 4.63% - almost the highest since May 2011 - but again, apparently, this won't affect the housing recovery either (even though mortgage apps are down two-thirds from their highs).
The last 2 times 10Y was at 3%, S&P was at 1340 (and fell considerably after) and 1650.

It seems WSJ and CNBC may have their bond math off by a fraction as Bloomberg never triggered until now...

Charts: Bloomberg

Stocks Surge For Sixth Straight Session

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Despite the mainstream media's premature exuberance over the 10Y yield breaking above 3.00%it didn't (according to Bloomberg) but that didn't stop it from closing as close as it can get to the high yields of the year (and back to July 2011 levels) at 2.9905%. The USD drifted getly lower with GBP and EUR strength the biggest drivers. Commodities saw Gold and even more Silver jump at the open then drift while copper and oil limped higher. Volume in stocks was 20% below last Boxing Day which provided the perfect recipe for a VIX smack-down, slow meltup rally to new record-er highs.

The 10Y Yield did not (sorry not) cross 3.00% today (quite yet)...

The last 2 times 10Y was at 3%, S&P was at 1340 (and fell considerably after) and 1650.

It's been quite a run off the debt-ceiling lows...

But the last few (post-Taper) days have been remarkable with among the best runs in 3 years...

VIX was slammed back under 12% briefly (to 9-month lows) buy bounced for the rest of the day...

As VIX has been slammed 30% lower in the last 6 days - its biggest collapse since the start of the year...

Commodities saw gold and silver jump at their open then drift...

Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: WTFTWTR...

Cruising for a bruising ? 

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Euro Surges In A 1.3900 "Digital One Touch" Stop Hunt

After last night's clear pursuit of the 105 one touch digital option concluded with success, this morning, the stop hunts continue, only this time in the EURUSD, which has been on a steady upward trajectory and starting below 1.37 has crossed nearly 200 pips in the matter of 12 hours, and moments ago stopped just shy of 1.3900 where it seems another one touch digital threshold can be found.Depending on how much money the seller stands to lose should 1.39 be taken out, expect a fierce (or not so fierce) defense of the barrier.

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The Probability Of A Stock Market Crash Is Soaring

While some individual stocks (cough TWTR cough) may have reached irrational bubble territory, the US equity market is undergoing a seemingly 'rational' bubble. However, as John Hussman illustrates in the following chart, the probability of a stock market crash is growing extremely rapidly.

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S&P 500 Should Hit Goldman's June 2014 Target Some Time Tomorrow

To think it was just two weeks ago, on December 13, when the S&P was being supported by the "Independence Day" barrier of 1776. It was also on that day that Goldman's strategist David Kostin updated his most recent forward S&P500 price targets for both 6 months ahead (i.e. June), and December 31, 2014. The numbers were 1850 and 1900 respectively.  What is just a little bit concerning, is that the S&P, following yet another 10+ point move today on what can only be characterized as "hilarious" volume, will hit Goldman's S&P500 June price target some time tomorrow (or maybe today if the NY Fed trading desk sends the VIX to a 10 handle).

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What Could Go Wrong Here?

We wondered previously what happens when there are no more greater fools to sell to? But, US investors have turned the euphoria dial to 11 this week as the percent bullish is the highest since the peak in Fall 2007 and bears are at their lowest percentage since Spring 1987. Thus, the Bull-bear spread (based on AAII's survey) has never been wider (and don't forget, even Cliff Asness knows theunbridled idiocy of the 'money-on-the-sidelines'-meme).