Beijing is confident regional tensions will stabilise without military conflict after neighbouring countries and the United States have had time to adjust to its air defence identification zone, Chinese analysts said.
The Ministry of National Defence's creation of the zone over most of the East China Sea two weeks ago has drawn a mix of criticism, condemnation and defiance from China's neighbours, including relatively friendly ones.
South Korea, for instance, is preparing to expand its own zone to cover a disputed rock. Its president, Park Geun-hye, who has been seen as more open to expanded Chinese ties than her predecessors, announced plans to work closely with US on the issue after meeting US Vice-President Joe Biden on Friday.
The sabre-rattling was unlikely to result in a conflict because none of the governments involved wanted to risk instability in the region, said Shi Yinhong , an international relations professor at Renmin University. He said Beijing approached the zone's creation "patiently and skilfully".
"That's why we haven't seen any actual conflicts so far, because the three sides - Beijing, Washington and Tokyo - all made efforts to prevent any military stand-offs in the air."
Shi believed the zone was there to stay and other nations would have to accept it. "It's impossible for Beijing to withdraw [it]."
Criticism of the zone continued yesterday, as visiting Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop ignored warnings from Beijing and reiterated concerns about the move.
"Australia is concerned about peace and stability in our region and we don't want to see any escalation of tensions," she said in Beijing. "We want to see a de-escalation."
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday warned Australia against "undermining bilateral mutual trust" by criticising the air defence zone.
Meanwhile, the US urged Beijing to "immediately lower tensions" and set up an emergency hotlines to avoid confusion in the disputed area.
"China should work with other countries, including Japan and South Korea, to establish confidence-building measures, including emergency communications channels to address the dangers that its recent announcement has created," US State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said.
Jin Canrong , of Renmin University's school of international studies, said Beijing had certainly expected such responses. "China has been well-prepared for all possible scenarios, including possible conflicts between fighter jets from China and Japan," Jin said. "Unless the US decides to get directly involved, everything so far is under control for Beijing."
It’s the sea equivalent of a land rush in the Asian Pacific lately. First China announced it was establishing an “air defense zone” over the disputed Senkaku Islands. The move sparked anger from South Korea and Japan.
Now South Korea, after condemning China’s action, has done the exact same thing, setting up an air defense zone of its own in the East China Sea.
South Korea’s new zone not only seizes disputed airspace, as the Chinese version did, but also overlaps parts of both Chinese and Japanese air defense zones. The move has not been well received by either China or Japan.
The US State Department, which angrily condemned China for its move, has praised South Korea, noting that South Korea’s government “conferred with the United States in advance,” suggesting the biggest problem with China’s move was that they didn’t get permission from the US beforehand.
Sky's not the limit: The Director General for Policy Planning Bureau of the Ministry of Defence, Jang Hyuk (left) speaks during a press briefing announcing a new air defense zone at the Ministry of Defence in Seoul on Sunday. | AFP-JIJI
South Korea declares expanded ADIZ overlapping with other zones
AFP-JIJI
SEOUL – South Korea Sunday declared an expanded air defense zone that overlaps with one announced by China and covers a submerged rock disputed by the two countries, as tensions rise over competing territorial claims.
The defense ministry said its new zone, which will take effect on Dec. 15, would cover Ieodo — a rock in waters off its south coast which China calls Suyan.
The airspace above the Seoul-controlled rock — long a source of tension between South Korea and China — is also covered by Chinese and Japanese air defense zones.
China heightened tensions last month when it unilaterally declared an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, in which foreign planes are supposed to file flight plans with Beijing.
The zone — which encompasses some areas currently controlled by South Korea or Japan — has drawn intense protests from the two neighbours and objections from key allies such as the United States.
“We will coordinate with related countries to fend off accidental military confrontations and to ensure the safety of airplanes,” said South Korean defense ministry spokesman Kim Min-Seok.
“The new air defense zone is in line with international aviation rules and protocols,” he said.
Kim said Seoul had notified its neighbours and related nations in advance about its new air zone, the first revision to its air defense area for 62 years.
The new zone was expanded by about 66,480 sq. km — or about two thirds of the size of the country — in waters off its south coast, the defense ministry said.
There was no immediate comment from China or Japan on the South Korean move.
The U.S. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki confirmed that Seoul had consulted with Washington earlier, saying U.S. officials “appreciate” the South’s “efforts to pursue this action in a responsible . . . fashion” by notifying its neighbours in advance.
Tension has been high since the air zone declaration by China, which neighbours see as a push to assert its growing military might and territorial claims.
In addition to Ieodo China’s ADIZ covers disputed Tokyo-controlled islands, known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyus in China, that have been at the center of a simmering territorial row.
Both Tokyo and Seoul have rejected Beijing’s demand that all aircraft traversing the Chinese zone file flight plans and ID details.
The U.S. flew two B-52 bombers through the area without complying, followed by similar moves by Japan and South Korea whose planes also entered the zone without notifying China.
The latest tension over the air zone overshadowed the visit last week by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden to the three nations.
Biden warned China against raising tension in the region, saying regional peace and stability were in its interests.
Biden, during talks with South Korean President Park Geun-Hye, also expressed “understanding” for Seoul’s approach including the revision of its air zone, according to a senior U.S. official.
Boo Hyung-wook, a researcher at the Korea Institute of Defense Analyses, said the latest dispute stems from China’s desire to strengthen its claim over the Senkakus by extending its air defense zone.
“Since South Korea was so close to Japan, it was unavoidable (for China) to let some of its air zone overlap with Korea, which has led to all this trouble with Seoul,” Boo said.
“It’s really time for the three neighbours to sit together to avoid the worst case scenario,” he said, adding however it was “highly unlikely” that the latest row would lead to an actual military clash.
Japan calls for global action against China’s new air zone
AP
TACLOBAN, PHILIPPINES – Japan’s defense minister called on the international community Sunday to oppose China’s recently declared maritime air defense zone over the East China Sea and possibly over the disputed South China Sea.
Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera discussed Japan’s concern over China’s action separately with Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and Australian Foreign Minister Julia Bishop. Onodera and Bishop separately visited central Tacloban city, which was ruined by Typhoon Haiyan last month.
In his meeting with Bishop, Onodera said he mentioned that the international community “should meet to deal with this matter together” and that any unilateral action by coercive means should be opposed.
“If any country would establish a similar air zone in the South China Sea, that would bring up tension in the region and I mentioned that should be stopped,” he told reporters in Tacloban, where he visited a school serving as a shelter for villagers who lost their homes in the Nov. 8 typhoon.
He said that the issue should be resolved by dialogue.
The United States, Australia, South Korea and other countries have also expressed alarm over China’s new air identification zone. Beijing says all aircraft entering the vast area must identify themselves and follow Chinese instructions.
China’s ambassador to the Philippines, Ma Keqing, said early this week that it was Beijing’s right to decide “where and when to set up” an air identification zone. She was asked about a possibility that China might set up a similar zone over the South China Sea.
Ma did not say if China would set up such a zone.
Onodera said that China’s unilateral action violates the spirit of the International Civil Aviation Organization treaty.
Old hatreds and grudges die hard......
The old hatreds behind the China-Japan provocation war
A rising tide of nationalism in both China and Japan is keeping East China Sea dispute on the boil
By Patrick Brown, CBC NewsPosted: Dec 06, 2013 5:56 PM ET Last Updated: Dec 07, 2013 5:17 AM ET
China's President Ji Xinping faces off across a crowded room with a visiting U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden earlier this week. Beijing stressed it has no intention of backing away from its new air defence zone. (Associated Press)
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About The Author
Patrick Brown Eye on Asia
Former CBC correspondent Patrick Brown has reported from world capitals and dusty backwaters for over 30 years, with a particular emphasis on Asia, having been based at different times in Bangkok, Delhi and, most recently, Beijing. He now splits his time between Canada and China as an independent documentary-maker. Follow Patrick Brown on Twitter: @jiluTV
If China were a contestant in an online game — such as, say, World ofWarcraft — it would probably be accused of trolling, the internet term for committing gratuitous mischief for the sheer delight of getting a rise out of others.
But as this is the real world, with the possibility of real war, we should probably rule out a playful adolescent urge as China's motive for its surprise declaration of an Air Defence Identification Zone for much of the East China Sea.
Apart from being one of the world's busiest transportation corridors, this zone also includes that grouping of hotly contested rocky islets known in China as the Diaoyu and in Japan as the Senkaku islands.
Once famous for providing albatross feathers to the world's milliners, the uninhabited islands are claimed by both countries.
But more recently, since the discovery of oil and gas deposits nearby and China's dramatic economic transformation, they have become the flashpoint for the mutual ill-feeling that dates back to Japan's wartime occupation of China and beyond.
The declaration of an ADIZ means that China now requires any aircraft entering the air space over a vast area of the East China Sea, including the disputed islands, to identify itself, report a flight plan and follow air traffic control instructions.
Japan immediately denounced the declaration as a "dangerous escalation," in the tensions between the two countries, while U.S. Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel called it a "destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region."
American B-52s, as well as Japanese, Taiwanese and South Korean military planes have all flown through the zone since Beijing's declaration two weeks ago to demonstrate that they will not comply with China's conditions.
For its part, China says it sent up fighter jets to "counter any provocative actions from Japan."
Should we be worried?
So far, this has all been shadow boxing, rather than confrontation. The different fleets of military jets seem to have been flying in different areas at different times to make a point, rather than start a war.
Commercial flights are not greatly affected. They routinely communicate with Chinese air traffic control anyway, and most countries, including the U.S., have recommended that their airlines obey the new rules.
China's and Japan's air defence zones. (Reuters)
China's official news agency, Xinhua, reported that 55 airlines from 19 countries have followed the new procedures in the days since the announcement. Japan, however, has told its airlines not to comply.
China points out that it has every right to establish an identification zone like this to match those of many other countries, including Japan, which has had one since the 1950s, extending it as recently as 2010.
Even Canada has an ADIZ, established jointly with the U.S. during the Cold War.
Since these zones are the air space over international waters surrounding a country, they are not sovereign territory. The established practice is to locate military intruders and escort them until they leave.
Canada, for example, scrambled CF-18 fighters to see off a couple of Russian bombers in 2008.
China itself considered declaring such a zone as a security measure in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics, but decided not to, presumably because it would have disturbed the international charm offensive that was in full swing at the time.
The drumbeat of nationalism
But if China is clearly within its rights in asserting that national security requires greater supervision of approaching aircraft, the announcement nevertheless came as a shock because there was no prior consultation with its neighbours.
Also because the declared zone overlaps pre-existing ones set up years ago under U.S. guidance by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
And since the slightest move by any of the countries in this conflict-prone region always causes an uproar, China is disingenuous in asserting it is merely doing what others do.
Anticipating international criticism, government spokesman Hong Lei even had a proverb ready in advance.
"Their logic is simple," he said of China's critics. "They can do it while China cannot, which could be described with a Chinese saying, 'the magistrates are free to burn down houses while the common people are forbidden even to light lamps.'"
It's not entirely clear why China decided that this was the right time (just in advance of a long-scheduled visit by U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden) to stir up a long-standing dispute that had settled down somewhat since its eruption in the summer of 2012.
Domestic politics are certainly a factor, in both Beijing and Tokyo.
In his first year as China's top leader, President Xi Jinping has a firmer grip on all the levers of power, including the military, than any predecessor since Deng Xiaoping.
U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe before moving on to China this week. A much more informal get together, though the new air defence zone dominated the discussion, and Japan's lower house voted to condemn the new Chinese move shortly after Biden left. (Associated Press)
The so-called Chinese Dream, which has emerged as the key concept for his decade in office, includes a return to what he considers the country's rightful pre-eminence in the region, and a vision of China as a great power to equal, or maybe even surpass, the U.S.
Across the East China Sea in Japan, newly empowered Prime Minister Abe Shinzo is similarly pursuing a more nationalistic future for his country, which has not gone unnoticed in Beijing.
China accuses Abe of having plans beyond the self-defence policy that has underpinned Japan's military thinking since its defeat in 1945, and perhaps even of abandoning its taboo on nuclear weapons.
An editorial in the official English language China Daily said earlier this week: "If the U.S. is truly committed to lowering tensions in the region, it must first stop acquiescing to Tokyo's dangerous brinkmanship. It must stop emboldening belligerent Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to constantly push the envelope of Japan's encroachments and provocations."
For their part, American military strategists believe that China's strategy is to try to undermine American influence in East Asia by gradually pushing U.S. naval might back out into the Pacific, away from the "near sea" to the "second island chain."
From that perspective, the ADIZ can be seen as just one in a series of small moves to extend China's reach.
'Two centuries of humiliation'
Today, nationalism is a powerful force in China as it seeks to emerge from what Communist Party propaganda calls "two centuries of humiliation."
And the Communist Party has been increasingly turning to nationalism as an antidote for the growing public scorn it faces for its recent history of corruption and decadence.
Seen in that light, risky confrontations with foreign powers can be a good thing in the party's eyes, so long as China does not suffer a loss.
But a reminder of where the danger lies came this week with the deployment of new American patrol aircraft in Japan.
The earlier version of this plane, which carried out surveillance missions over Chinese waters for decades, collided with a hot-dogging Chinese jet tracking it in 2001, setting off one of the most serious crises between Beijing and Washington since diplomatic relations were restored in 1971.
The danger today is not that China, Japan, or the U.S. wants to start a war in these waters, it is that another such incident could easily lead to uncontrolled escalation.
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