Commentary on the economic , geopolitical and simply fascinating things going on. Served occasionally with a side of snark.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
War watch - Egypt , Iran , Syria and Libya in focus November 13 -14 , 2013.....
Egypt set to provide Russia access to port facilities on the Mediterranean while buying advanced Russian weaponry......... US influence in Egypt waning !
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu start a two-day visit to Cairo Wednesday, Nov. 13, to wind up a major sale of advanced Russian weaponry for the Egyptian army and the Russian Navy’s access to port facilities on the Mediterranean.
DEBKAfile’s military sources, which first revealed the coming transactions in the last week of October, now amplify that report by disclosing that Moscow has agreed to equip Egypt with a sophisticated combined double-layered system which covers both its defensive and offensive requirements.
1. The first layer will provide a shield against attack by stealth aircraft, drones and cruise missiles for all of Egypt’s airspace, including the Suez Canal, the Red Sea and its coastal waters, up to the central Mediterranean. Our military sources add that part of the system will be positioned in eastern Egypt for the protection of key Saudi cities as well.
2. The second layer will be built around sophisticated surface missiles with ranges that cover all points in the Middle East including Iran. Moscow and Cairo are keeping the types of missiles secret.
Saudi Arabia is putting up the estimated $4 billion to pay for the transaction.
The Russian delegation will include the first deputy director of the Federal Service on Military-Technical Cooperation, Andrei Boitsov, and officials from state-arms exporter Rosoboronexport.
Egyptian officials continued Tuesday to deny reports that a Russian naval base would be established in an Egyptian port as “illogical,” saying it would “undermine the country’s independence and sovereignty.”
However, according to our sources, planning is already underway for the deployment of some 1,500 Russian military personnel in Egypt to have the new missiles up and running and local personnel trained in their use by mid-2014. A similar number of Russian naval and marine servicemen have been assigned to setting up the naval base, most probably in Alexandria.
We have learned that the visiting Russian ministers and Egypt’s rulers will also discuss permission for Russian warships to dock in Egypt’s Red Sea waters opposite the Saudi coast.
Several thousand Russian military personnel will therefore soon be deployed in Egypt, 42 years after the entire body of Russian “military advisers” was expelled from the country by President Anwar Sadat.
The visit to Egypt by Lavrov and Gen. Shoigu was heralded at the port of Alexandria by the arrival of the Soviet Pacific Fleet flagship, the guided missile cruiser Varyag. Egyptian Navy commanders greeted the ship with unusual honor, including a gun salute. Varyag will remain in the Egyptian port for the duration of the Russian ministers’ stay.
When US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Cairo on Nov. 3, he tried to induce Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi to call off the arms deal with Russia by offering to restore in full the $1.3 billion US military aid package which the Obama administration left hanging after the coup which deposed Mohamed Morsi as president in July.
Gen. El-Sisi replied that Cairo does not intend severing its military ties with Washington and would prefer to continue to receive American airplanes and tanks, but will also be glad to take delivery of advanced Russian weapons which the US has withheld from Egypt.
IAEA head Yukiya Amano was in Tehran on Monday for discussions, which from all accounts went well.
UN inspectors this week visited the Natanz and Fordo gas centrifuge enrichment plants, as well as the Arak heavy water reactor.
They reported that there has been no expansion worth mentioning at either Natanz or Fordo. New, high-capacity centrifuges have not been installed or worked. No new work has been done at Arak.
Fabius had made last-minute demands at Geneva that work stop at Arak and that the new centrifuges be abandoned, but apparently Iran had already taken these steps as part of its own confidence-building measures.
Presumably Iran must have told Secretary of State John Kerry in confidence about these steps, but my guess is that Kerry did not share details with individual UNSC foreign ministries for fear of leaks. Fabius was therefore in the dark that his demands had already been met, at least in part, and was probably angry about not having full information from Kerry.
The diplomats will try again soon, and presumably Iran’s president Hasan Rouhani has encouraged the IAEA to make these findings public as an indirect way of assuaging France. The next time, Fabius should make some discreet inquiries before charging out in public to make allegations and reveal negotiating points.
In any case, the IAEA press release suggests that the next step toward negotiations may go more smoothly than Geneva did.
Israel and Iran positions harden as weakness / confusion of Western positions emboldens hardliners....
The visit to Tehran Monday, Nov. 11, by Yukiya Amano, head of he Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, was intended to show him meeting supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a signal that he approved of further efforts at an understanding to overcome the impasse reached last week in Geneva. This is reported by DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources.
The Iranian leader’s show of goodwill would have been used by the Obama administration to persuade Israel, France and Saudi Arabia to stop fighting the draft accord on Iran’s nuclear program that was tossed out at the Six-Power negotiations with Iran last Saturday.
However, Khamenei’s brush-off for Amano put paid to that effort.
The White House failed in its initial search for an European leader able to make an impression on the supreme leader and get him to sign off on diplomacy for a nuclear deal. No volunteers willing to risk a snub stepped forward.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif then promised the Americans that if the IAEA chief came to Tehran, an audience with Khamenei would be set up.
But from the moment Amano set foot in Tehran Monday until he left, no one mentioned an audience. He was fobbed off with “a roadmap for cooperation,” which he signed alongside the head of Iran’s atomic energy commission Ali Akbar Salehi for a photo op.
This worthless piece of paper permitted IAEA visits to the uranium mines at Garchin and the unfinished a heavy water plant in Arak, but continued to withhold permission to inspect projects suspected of clandestine work on developing a nuclear weapon – for instance, the Parchin military complex, to which the IAEA has repeatedly been denied access to check on suspicions of nuclear-related explosion tests of warhead detonators.
A normally calm and collected official, Amano was so put out by the disrespect shown him by Washington and Tehran that he went on record Wednesday, Nov. 13 to remark pointedly that he had seen no changes in Iran’s nuclear activities in the three months since the election of Hassan Rouhani as president: Iran continued to enrich uranium up to the 20 percent level just as before, he stressed.
This dry comment exploded the optimistic assumption at the root of the Obama administration’s soft policy on Iran, namely that Tehran had assumed a new, moderate face, amenable as never before to talking through a deal on its nuclear program.
The IAEA director lifted just a corner of the veil concealing Iran’s clandestine nuclear activities. Not only had nothing changed, but contrary to suggestions put about of a slowdown, uranium enrichment continues apace at all levels, 3.5, 5, and 20 percent grade. And not one centrifuge has been dismantled. Centrifuge production has indeed been accelerated and the machines are being quickly installed at all the enrichment plants. The new centrifuges are not yet spinning, but they are standing ready to be switched on at any moment. Construction at Arak has also been put on fast forward.
The Iranian regime therefore stands poised ready for “a freeze” on its program for the sake of eased sanctions. But whether or not an understanding is concluded through dialogue, its entire nuclear weapons production machine is ready to go on full power at a moment’s notice.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that lifting sanctions on Iran without demanding sufficient concessions in return will only encourage Tehran on its path to nuclear armament and lead to future conflict.
Tehran has been negotiating sanction relief in Geneva with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China, in exchange for assurances that it will not develop a nuclear weapon. Exact terms on offer from both sides have not been made public, but no agreement was made over the weekend. The sides will sit down for a new round of talks on November 20.
"On Iran, there aren't only two options – a bad deal or war. There is a third option: Continuing to exert pressure through sanctions," Netanyahu told parliament on Wednesday.
"I would even say that a bad deal could lead to the second, unwanted result."
Israel has been lobbying hard against appeasement, with Netanyahu himself claiming that Iran is about to clinch “the deal of the century.”
Despite the avowed secrecy of the negotiations, Netanyahu’s chief Iran expert, Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz, produced estimates of the benefits of the current sanctions.
Banking, equipment, and oil export restrictions currently cost the Iranian economy about US$100 billion a year – around a quarter of its domestic output.
"The sanctions relief directly will reduce between $15 to $20 billion out of this amount," Steinitz told the Jerusalem Press Club on Wednesday.
The minister believes the relief will have a multiplier effect, therefore making it harder to enforce other restrictions.
"The damage to the overall sanctions, we believe, will be something between $20 billion and maybe up to $40 billion. This is very significant. It's not all the sanctions. It's not the core sanctions about oil exports and the banking system, but it's very significant relief for the Iranians," said Steinitz.
The US has insisted that any loosening of the blockade of the Iranian economy will be “targeted and reversible.”
Meanwhile, Tehran continues to insist - as it has throughout the past decade - that it is developing nuclear energy solely for peaceful purposes.
Yukiya Amano, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - the UN’s nuclear watchdog - has been in Tehran this week to iron out a deal on international supervision of the country’s nuclear program. The main issues involve site access for UN inspectors and assurances that nuclear materials – such as enriched uranium – that could be used as potential weapons ingredients are not being manufactured.
A cooperation deal was struck between the IAEA and Iran on Monday. But speaking to Reuters on Wednesday, Amano struck a more cautious note.
"I can say that enrichment activities are ongoing...no radical change is reported to me," he said.
“Activities which are not allowed [under UN Security Council resolutions calling on Iran to suspend all enrichment] are continuing,” Amano added.
Speaking on Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah – a close ally of Tehran - stated that failure to reach a deal over Iran’s nuclear program could lead to a war in the Middle East.
"What is the alternative to a deal with Iran and the countries of the world," he asked in a rare pulic appearance. "The alternative is war in the region."
Nasrallah pointed the finger at Israel and accused some Arab countries of siding with Tel Aviv on the issue.
"Israel does not want any accord that would avert war in the region. It is regrettable that some Arab countries take the Israeli side in its murderous choices. It is regrettable that Netanyahu is the spokesman for some Arab countries," he said.
This seemed to be in reference to Iran’s archrivals – Sunni Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Senior Iranian officials now say that Tehran will not suspend its contested nuclear enrichment program until the West first agrees to lift all economic sanctions on the country.
Tehran issued its new demands on Tuesday, just days after Western nuclear negotiators failed to hammer out a deal to halt Iran’s contested enrichment program for at least six months.
Top Iranian officials now say that they will only continue negotiations if the West agrees to first lift the crippling economic sanctions that originally pushed Tehran to the bargaining table.
The developments came on the same day that Iran’s top nuclear official announced that the country would not be reporting a host of new nuclear facilities to international nuclear inspectors.
“We can negotiate about suspending part of our nuclear activities only if the entire sanctions program is annulled,” said Ahmad Salek, chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s Cultural Commission.
Iran’s right to enrich up 20 percent grade uranium has been set by the country as a non-negotiable “redline,” according to Salek and multiple other Iranian officials.
“This is a political game and the nuclear energy [issue] only serves as an excuse [for Western officials], and they are after other things,” Salek said according to Iran’s state-run Fars News Agency. “Otherwise, we have a powerful rationale in [dealing with] our nuclear issue.”
Salek urged Iran’s negotiating team to “act strongly and firmly without taking any backward step” when talks resume on Nov. 20.
“What kind of negotiation could it be that they ask us to have nuclear suspension and stop uranium enrichment, while they are not to take even a single step,” Salek said.
Salek is not the only senior Iranian official to balk at Western demands that enrichment activities be suspended for at least six months.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran makes no deal over its right,” lead Iranian negotiator Mohamed Javad Zarif said just a day before negotiations with the West fell apart.
Iran’s new negotiating stance was coupled with a major announcement that many new nuclear power plants would be built along the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea.
However, Iran will not disclose details about the plants to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), according to Ali Akbar Salehi, the leader of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization.
“We are not obliged to introduce to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) the nuclear facilities that we are to build in the future and only 180 days before entry of nuclear substances there, we will inform the IAEA of them,” Salehi said on Tuesday,according to Fars.
The new nuclear plants will be built in North, South, and central Iran, according to Salehi.
“The power plants should have access to a huge source of water,” he said. “The new power plants will be supported by desalinations, mainly located in Southern parts of the country.”
As Iranian officials demand a preemptive end to sanctions, media reports have indicated that the Obama administration is preparing to offer just that. It is believed that the deal was stymied by French officials, who objected to an agreement backed by both United States and Great Britain.
White House Press Secretary Jay Carney reiterated the administration’s support for sanctions relief during a Tuesday afternoon press conference.
“This is a decision to support diplomacy and a possible peaceful resolution to this issue,” Carney said about negotiations with Iran.
Lawmakers on Capitol Hill have expressed great frustration with Iran’s obstinate rhetoric and could be on the cusp of approving a new round of sanctions, sources said.
“It’s completely insane to pretend you can negotiate with these terrorists as if they weren’t hardened Islamic radicals,” said one senior congressional aide who works on the sanctions issue. “Just because a terrorist calls himself a diplomat, doesn’t mean he’s not a terrorist.”
“The only thing these maniacs care about is holding on to power—and only when they are forced to choose between regime survival and their nuclear program will they concede the latter,” the source said. “That’s what makes the sanctions so important—they are bringing the regime to the edge of collapse—a little more pressure, and they might actually comply with their international obligations.”
However, the Iranians appear to have taken the upper hand in negotiations, according to Noah Pollak, executive director of the pro-Israel Emergency Committee for Israel, which has harshly criticized the Obama administration for capitulating to Iran during talks.
“The Iranian approach to nuclear negotiations has always been, ‘heads we win, tails you lose,’ but I don’t think [Secretary of State] John Kerry will ever understand this concept,” Pollak said to the Washington Free Beacon.
Iran’s top foreign policy officials also criticized Kerry’s diplomacy following his surprise stop last week in Geneva on the final day of negotiations.
Kerry later blamed the Iranians for the failure to reach a deal.
“Mr. Secretary, was it Iran that gutted over half the U.S. draft on Thursday night, and publicly commented against it Friday morning?” lead negotiator Zarif said on Tuesday.
“No amount of spinning can change what happened within the [six powers] in Geneva from 6 p.m. Thursday to 5:45 Saturday. But it can erode confidence,” Zarif said.
After repeated comments on Monday declaring the collapse of a weekend deal with Iran entirely the fault of Iran, the Obama Administration is back-tracking significantly, not only conceding that Iran isn’t to blame, but insisting no one is.
“Fault is immaterial,” insisted State Dept spokeswoman Jen Psaki, who insisted the talks are simply a “complicated” issue that are going to take awhile to sort out.
Russia was also quick to dismiss the claims that Iran was to blame for the lack of a deal, saying there simply wasn’t a consensus. Reports from those familiar with the situation say France actually was the one that rejected the deal, and did so with an eye on a big arms deal with Saudi Arabia.
US officials are now describing the talks not as a failure but as a “near miss,” apparently hinging on disputes over wording, and they insist that a deal remains probable in the near future.
Syria.........Lots of moving chess pieces on the board
Syrian govt to visit Russia next week in preparation for Geneva-2 - report
A Syrian government delegation will arrive in Moscow on November 18 to discuss preparations for the Genava-2 peace talks, AFP reported, citing a Syrian government source. According to the report, the group will include two high-level representatives of the Syrian Foreign Ministry as well as President Bashar Assad’s media and political adviser. Earlier on Thursday, Syrian media reported that the long-delayed Geneva talks on the Syrian conflict were finally set for December 12. Citing diplomats in Paris, daily Al-Watan reported that US Secretary of State John Kerry told his French counterpart Laurent Fabius that UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon would announce the date on November 25. So far, there has been no official confirmation.
How to end Syria'€™s 'new war'
The Syrian conflict is more complex than wars of yore and requires a different approach
Opposition fighters hold a position behind burning tires in the Syrian city of Aleppo in October. Tarek Abu al-Fahem/AFP/Getty Images
The
The much-delayed Geneva II talks, meant to discuss an end to the war in Syria and scheduled to take place last week, have been postponed once again, with no new date set. Meanwhile, in Syria there will be more deaths, more hardship and disease, more people forced to leave their homes, more kidnappings and rapes, more trauma.
Even if the talks do take place soon, can such top-level negotiations — those that involve the Assad government, outside government powers and, putatively, representatives of the opposition — end the violence? Commentators and policymakers tend to see the Syrian crisis through the lens of past wars; we assume that what is going on is a contest of wills between two organized sides that both represent parts of the population. In this reading, all we need to do is to bring the parties to the negotiating table and reach an agreement. But the war in Syria is much more complex than that. And we must understand its character if we are serious about seeking peace.
A ‘new war’
Syria’s conflict is typical of what I call a "new war." New wars are fought not by regular armed forces but by transnational networks of state and nonstate actors. The rebels are a motley group that includes individuals who took up arms to defend their families, defectors from the Syrian army, Islamist groups (including groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and recruits from all over the world), Kurdish militias and criminal gangs (many of whom were released from prison by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad early in the conflict) as well as those who see themselves as championing democracy through the use of force. On the government side are militias like the shabiha as well as transnational nonstate groups like Hezbollah.
New wars are usually fought in the name of exclusive political identities (ethnic or religious). The violence in Syria began when the Assad regime started to shell and shoot at peaceful protesters who were calling for democracy and the removal of the regime. But Assad’s narrative — of terrorism, jihadism and sectarianism — risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy: It has begun to transform what was a melting pot of multicultural tolerance into increasingly bitter Alawite and Sunni, Christian and Muslim, Kurd and Arab divisions. Moreover, these sectarian rifts can deepen as geopolitical divisions between Russia and the U.S. or Iran and Saudi Arabia latch onto them in the interest of those countries' own geopolitical rivalries.
In new wars, battles are rare, and violence is primarily directed against civilians. The Assad regime pursues a scorched-earth policy against rebel-held areas — reminiscent of ethnic cleansing during the war in Bosnia from 1992 to 1995, which in many ways is the archetypal example of a new war. Shelling by regular forces is augmented by forced detention and atrocities (including torture and sexual abuse) undertaken by government-supported militias. For their part, some rebels also violate human rights and use violence against civilians as a way of controlling territory.
And finally, in new wars, unlike old wars, the formal economy tends to collapse, and a transnational, informal and predatory war economy is established. In Syria this means that outside money and arms are channeled into illicit activities such as looting, kidnapping, “taxation” at checkpoints and smuggling of various types — as well as the unlicensed extraction and transportation of oil. There are many reported examples of collusion between government forces and rebel groups involving the exchange of arms, oil and prisoners for money and for control of supply routes.
An international agreement on Syria should aim to delegitimize violence and legitimize civil-society work.
Whereas old wars tended to be contests of wills between organized warring parties that could be solved through outright victory or through political talks, new wars, by contrast, are complex mutual enterprises in which the various parties benefit from the ongoing conflict itself rather than from winning. The sectarian divisions that drive the politics of many of these groups are being constructed — and perpetuated — through violence. The war economy allows these groups to raise revenue that funds the violence for its own sake. This is why new wars are so difficult to end. They tend to persist because this is the only way the opposing parties are able to hold on to their political and economic gains. New wars tend to spread because they foster sectarian ideologies and because the resultant war economy leads to increased interdependence. Adding to the instability are refugees and displaced people as well as new smuggling networks (for weapons, oil and a range of goods and people). The losers are often those who care about the public interest — the civil society that is targeted by all sides.
Supporting local efforts
So how can new wars like Syria’s be resolved? Complex situations require complex solutions. The solutions must be both top-down and bottom-up; high-level talks in Geneva must respond to developments on the ground, while local efforts to improve everyday security must be able to access what is happening in the international arena. At the top level, there must be talks focused on the humanitarian crisis. Even if a political agreement between Assad and the rebels were possible, such an agreement would have little to do with democracy; it would legitimize those with guns and serve only to entrench the newly emerging politics of identity espoused by the various groups. Rather, international efforts should be aimed at supporting bottom-up efforts to stop the violence, such as those by civil-society groups and local administrative councils that try to negotiate local cease-fires and provide humanitarian services. For example, a cease-fire was organized by civil-society groups in Ras al-Ain; local cease-fires have also been negotiated in several suburbs of Aleppo and Damascus.
These civil groups would be best supported if outside powers were to agree to stop the flow of arms and money to armed groups on all sides and put pressure on their allies to stop killing civilians. Outside powers could also strengthen local cease-fires by deploying international monitors or mediators, establishing safe havens, increasing humanitarian access and assistance, and arresting, when possible, war criminals. At present, unlike with many new wars, the international community’s presence in Syria is minimal. While there are many Islamist nongovernmental organizations, the main international NGOs in Syria are Doctors Without Borders and the Red Cross (although some other groups like Save the Children and the Norwegian Refugee Council are undertaking small projects). An international humanitarian presence is important to offer support and reassurance to ordinary people. The aim of the international agreement should thus be to delegitimize violence and to legitimize civil-society work, creating a framework in which the political future of Syria may be discussed without fear.
Some have argued that the recent chemical weapons agreement — the decision by Assad to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention and dismantle chemical stocks under international supervision — is a setback. The prohibition of chemical weapons may seem to legitimize other forms of violence and strengthen Assad. On the other hand, the fact that countries like Iran and Russia joined the international condemnation of the horrific chemical attacks in Ghouta may betoken the possibility that some kind of international agreement might be reached on humanitarian grounds. Perhaps the Geneva II talks could focus on an international agreement that excludes the warring parties and includes only those nonviolent civil-society groups trying to stop violence at local levels. An international agreement that refuses to allow sectarian divisions to be reproduced at a geopolitical level and aims to weaken the new war economy could serve as a model of how to end new wars.
Albania’s government has been reported by several sources to be open to the idea of disposing of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal. Protesters massed at the US embassy in Tirana today, however, to make it clear that’s not their position.
“Yes, we can say no” was the theme of many of the banners, reflecting how controversial it is for modern Albania to even consider refusing a US proposal.
Norway and Lebanon already turned down proposals to take in the Syrian chemicals, and locals see it as a huge undertaking, and an environmental nightmare that isn’t Albania’s problem in the first place.
“Love Albania like the PM loves the US,” one sign declared, while activists argued that deciding on such an undertaking was a matter of sovereignty, and not something the international community ought to simply throw Albania’s way.
Prime Minister Edi Rama confirmed he has “discussed” the possibility with Secretary of State John Kerry, but no deal has been made yet. At the same time he has dismissed protesters as uninformed, and his hope to get his nation into the EU could mean pleasing Western nations will trump local wishes.
Multiple Kurdish factions have agreed in principle to create a “transitional” government for Western Kurdistan, covering northeastern Syria, to rule autonomously for the duration of the Syrian Civil War.
The plan had been raised before, but seems practical now as Kurdish militias have ousted al-Qaeda from much of their territory, and have virtually de facto control over the region.
Not everyone is on board, however, as the Kurdish National Council (KNC), a faction closely affiliated with the rebel Syrian National Coalition (SNC), has called the move an “obstacle” tothe broader rebellion, and one which threatens to alienate the rebels.
Yet the Kurds aren’t by and large involved in the civil war itself, and are instead finding themselves trying to keep foreign Islamists from overrunning their towns with no help from either the Assad government or moderate rebels, leaving the region as a practical matter independent.
Forgotten Libya........ National Disorder continues
Naming perpetrators will not help – Zeidan
By Sami Zaptia.
Tripoli, 14 November 2013:
At Sunday’s press conference, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan refused to name those accused of committing crimes in eastern Libya.
Challenged by the media to name the perpetrators of criminal and terror activity in the eastern cities of Benghazi and Derna in order to put the general public’s mind at rest, the Prime Minister refused.
It was put to the PM that since the government had revealed that it either knew who was behind these criminal activities or that it had indeed arrested some of them, would it not put the public’s mind at rest if their identity were to be revealed.
It will be noted that there has been a public clamor for the government to identify those responsible for the violence in the east, and particularly in Benghazi, not least to reduce the amount of wild speculation and conspiracy theories as to who exactly is behind the violence.
The state’s inability or unwillingness to reveal who is responsible for the wave of assassinations and bombings in the city of Benghazi has led to some wild speculation that some organs of the state may be implicated. The fact that the state has not presented any conclusive facts as to who is responsible has not helped in limiting or reducing any of this speculation.
Zeidan, however, disagreed with the premise of the question, that it may ease the general public’s mind, saying that he did not think that revealing identities “would help the situation”.
However, he said that “when and if” he needed to name people, he “would”.
Tripoli Council calls for Friday protest to remove armed groups
Tripoli, 14 November 2013:
The head of Tripoli Local Council, Sadat Elbadri, has called upon the capital’s residents to peacefully demonstrate against armed militias after Friday prayers tomorrow.
Speaking live on television, Elbadri demanded the immediate implementation of Law No. 27, which ordered the removal of all armed groups from the capital earlier this year. Tripoli locals have been organising similar protests for several days.
Speaking to the Libya Herald last week, Elbadri said that he had been assured of support from other towns and cities as well as Tripoli-based activists.
NOC reduces oil and gas production because of Amazigh protest in Mellitah
By Ahmed Elumami.
Tripoli, 14 November 2013:
The Amazigh protest at the Mellitah Complex has forced the National Oil Corporation (NOC) to reduce the production of crude oil from Al-Fil (Elephant) and Baher Al-Salam Oil and Gas Fields.
“Al-Fil production has been reduced to 18,000 barrels per a day (bpd) from the normal daily production of 130,000 bpd, and Baher Al-Salam has been reduced to 37,000 bpd” NOC Spokesman Mohamed Al-Hrari told the Libya Herald.
Al-Hrari said that the main reason for the reduced production is because of the lack of storage capacity at the Mellitah complex.
However, if the Amazigh continue with their protest at Mellitah for 4 to 5 days, Al-Hrari continued, the NOC will be forced to shut down fields.
He added that the NOC can cover local gas and oil needs at the present time, but that the continuation of the protest would have an impact further on.
Two weeks ago, a group of Amazighs prevented oil tankers from reaching the Mellitah Complex, demanding more than the two seats they have been allocated in the 60-member Constitutional Drafting Committee. They are also protesting in order to have their Tamazigh language enshrined in the forthcoming constitution as an “official language” within Libya.
The widespread blockades of oil facilities all over Libya by groups with various political and labour demands have reduced Libya’s oil production by 60 percent, leading the Prime Minister Ali Zeidan to reveal that Libya will have a budgetary deficit in 2013. He also warned that the government will have difficulties in meeting its budget commitments such as wages.
Damaged embassies upset by last week’s clashes
Tripoli, 14 November 2013:
A number of embassies in the Dhara district of Tripoli have been described as “extremely upset” by last Thursday’s armed clashes, which damaged a number of high-profile buildings.
Several diplomatic buildings were hit by indiscriminate passing gunfire, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said at Sunday’s press conference. He added that, as a consequence, two embassies were seriously considering reducing their staff presence in Libya.
He listed key buildings which had been hit, including the Mahari Radisson Blu and Waddan hotels, which house some diplomatic staff, and the Turkish and Italian embassies.
An armed group entered the Waddan, Zeidan said, and terrorised guests, including senior diplomatic staff. Possessions and money were apparently taken at gunpoint, which was confirmed to the Libya Herald by a diplomatic source. This source added that one of the perpetrators appeared to be on drugs and, after stealing possessions, left his Kalashnikov behind and had to return for it.
Several government buildings in the neighbourhood were also struck by passing gunfire, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Planning.
and....
NOC sending second tanker to try and break Tobruk export blockade: report
By Libya Herald Staff.
The British Falcon – reported by Bloomberg to be heading to Tobruk to break the export blockade (Photo Klaus Bombel, FleetMon.com)
Tripoli, 11 November 2013:
In a further attempt to restart sales from blockaded eastern export terminals, the National Oil Company is reported to be sending a second tanker to Tobruk, with instructions to load 600,000 tons of crude from the the Hariga terminal. It is expected to arrive at the port tomorrow (Tuesday).
Bloomberg said today that it appears that the 113,000 tonnes BP tanker, the British Falcon has left a mooring off Zawia and is believed to be heading for Tobruk. NOC spokesman Mohamed Harari declined to identify the vessel. However, he told the news agency that it would be loading at least 600,000 barrels of crude for a European destination.
On 28 October, prime minister Ali Zeidan went to Tobruk and announced he had obtained agreement with local elders that the two-month shutdown of the terminal would end by Monday 4 November at the latest. However four days later a tanker, reportedly seeking to load more than half a million barrels for Italy was refused permission to dock, by armed men associated with the eastern Petroleum Facilities Guard, have have seized all of the eastern oil export terminals and stopped their operation.
It is unclear this evening what makes NOC believe that tomorrow’s attempt to hook up to one of Hariga’s two loading jetties by another tanker will be any more successful. There is no indication that the vessel, whatever its identity, is being escorted by Libyan naval units.
Amazigh demands likely to be discussed Sunday: GNC spokesman
By Ahmed Elumami.
Tripoli, 13 November 2013:
Discussions on the number of seats for ethnic groups in the 60-Committee that will draw up a new constitution are ongoing, Congress spokesman Omar Hemidan has said.
The Amazigh community has said that it will boycott all elections in Libya in protest at being given just two seats on the committee. Amazigh activists have closed the Mellitah gas complex in support of their demands.
Speaking in a press conference on Tuesday, Hemidan said that some Congress members were opposed to making any decision on the issue. However, it was likely to come up on Sunday when Congress is due to vote on the name of the state, its flag, anthem, identity and language.
Each item would require one hundred and thirty four votes to be passed, he said.
“I am optimistic about will happen next Sunday” Amazigh Congressman Sulaiman Ghajam told the Libya Herald, adding that “there was already an agreement on the name of the state, anthem and flag”. But there had been heated discussions on a formal recognition of the Tamazight language, he said.
“We were about to vote on the Amazigh demands on Tuesday”, Ghajam said, but there had not been enough time because Congress had had long discussions on the issue of the Libya Revolutionaries Operation Room.
He said that because of the lack of movement, Amazigh protesters had decided they had no other choice except by using oil and gas fields in order to put pressure on Congress.
Another Constitutional Committee election boycott threat
By Libya Herald staff.
Tripoli, 13 November 2013:
Demonstrators in the oasis town of Al-Awjila, north of Jalu, today announced that they would boycott the elections for the Committee because the town will not have its own representative on the committee.
According to news agency Ajwaa Al-Bilad, the demonstrations were organised by the local council and civil society organisations.
The council leader, Mohamad Ali Mdouna, was reported saying that the town had been marginalised in last year’s elections to Congress and would not tolerate being treated so again. Demanding that oasis towns in the area have more than one member in the 60-member committee, he said that his town’s distinctive cultural identity had to be taken into account.
Awjila is in Cyrenaica which has been given the same 20 seats on the committee as Tripolitania, although the latter has a far larger population than the former.
The Amazigh community in the west of the country is also boycotting the elections because they claim the two seats set aside for them as an ethnic minority are insufficient. The exiled residents of Tawergha are also boycotting it because, they say, the authorities are ignoring their plight.
Sebha fuel facility closed by uranium guardsmen demanding unpaid salaries
By Seraj Essul and Tom Westcott.
The 10th Brigade guard at least 2,263 tonnes of yellowcake -uranium ore concentrate – stored at the Sebha facility
Tripoli, 13 November 2013:
One of Sebha’s most important brigades has shut the town’s petrol storage tanks and blocked a key road in a dispute over unpaid salaries.
Up to 40 members of the 10th Brigade, which works under the 15th Brigade of the country’s Special Forces, closed the fuel storage facility on Monday demanding overdue salary payments dating back to 2011.
“Although we signed contracts with the Ministry of Defence, we haven’t been paid anything since 25 September 2011,” one of protestors, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the Libya Herald.
Although the protestors have closed one road, the main one remains accessible, according to an employee from the facility. “The road between Misrata and Sebha is still open so we are still receiving fuel and storing it, but the problem is that they have closed the road between the storage tanks and the area’s main petrol stations.”
The head of Sebha Local Council, Ayoub Al-Zaroug, told the Libya Herald that the brigade members protesting had been tasked by the Special Forces with guarding stores of uranium, stockpiled under the Qaddafi regime. He said that members of the brigade were still keeping guard over the uranium while others were staging their protest.
Zaroug flew to Tripoli last night for talks with Prime Minister Ali Zeidan to try and resolve the situation. The protesting brigade member told the Libya Herald that, if the salary dispute was not resolved, the next step would be for the 10th Brigade to close Sebha airport.
The Sebha storage facility holds at least 2,263 tonnes of uranium ore concentrate (UOC) – also known as yellowcake – imported from various sources between 1978 and 2002, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). A conversion facility had been planned at Sebha but this was never built. Although Qaddafi renounced his chemical and nuclear weapons programme in 2003, ten years later the stockpiles remain.
A report by UK newspaper The Times last month said that Bharuddin Midhoun Arifi, the commander of an unnamed group in charge of guarding the stockpiles, said that his men were frightened of the uranium. “My men don’t like guarding the site as they believe it will make their skin fall off, so we guard it from a nearby checkpoint,” he reportedly said, adding: “Maybe someone could steal one or two drums if they wanted, but not more.”
Zawia facility reopens but refining not yet restarted
By Seraj Essul.
Tripoli, 13 November 2013:
Zawia refinery was reopened this morning after injured revolutionaries demanding treatment abroad closed the facility yesterday.
Representatives from Zawia local council and elders of the town successfully negotiated with the protestors, spokesman for the Zawia refinery Mohamed Othman told the Libya Herald.
The entry and exit of fuel is now running as normal, he said, although the two oil refining units are not yet functioning.
The problem is, Othman said, that on Saturday some of the protesters closed the valves that bring water from the sea to cool down the refining units. “It could have been a disaster if the specialists had not shut down the units,” he said, adding that the refinery needed a completely safe environment before it could restart operations.
The Sharara field which supplies the refinery is still closed in a separate protest but, Othman said: “We still have stores, which are enough to last for at least for two weeks.” He added that there was also a tanker at the port unloading crude oil.
Mellitah workers go on strike, warn of power cuts
By Ashraf Abdul Wahab.
Tripoli, 12 November 2013:
Workers at the Mellitah oil and gas complex are staging a 72-hour protest against the ongoing occupation of the complex by Amazigh protestors, and have warned of possible power cuts in the west of Libya.
The employees said in a statement that this industrial action would result in the suspension of gas supplies to power plants on the coastal and mountain cities, from Ras Ejdir to Misrata, including the power station of Zawia, Tripoli South power station, and Khoms, Misrata and Ruwais power stations. It warned of a potential total loss of power to these areas unless immediate action was taken.
The statement, addressed to Prime Minister Ali Zeidan and the Libyan people, said the Amazigh protest, which closed part of the Mellitah complex over a week ago, had provoked the strike. It urged Zeidan to urgently take action, “given the seriousness of the situation and its repercussions on the country’s essential utilities.”
Zawia oil refinery and Mellitah gas complex closed by protesters, cutting gas supply to Italy
By Houda Mzioudet,
Tripoli, 12 November 2013:
The Zawia refinery was closed today by a number of wounded people.
The protesters closed the refinery this morning and staged a sit-in at the entrance of the refinery, and prevented entry and exit of trucks transporting fuel as well as employees at the Zawia refinery, Mohamed al Harari, spokesman of the NOC told the Libya Herald.
Moreover, gas exports to Italy were also stopped because of the security situation at the the Mellitah gas complex. This was due to a number of Amazigh protesters closing it in protest at the non-inclusion of the Amazigh language as an official language in Libya’s next constitution, Al Harari added.
Al Wafa field supplies Italy with gas, Al Harari added. However, the pumping of gas and its treatment as well as providing gas to power plants, was still operational., he explained.
Mellitah field used to produce 3 million cubic feet of gas before the closure of the gas pipeline. Now it is producing 1340 million cubic feet, Al Harari explained.
He nonetheless, reassured that fuel, gasoline and diesel supplies will not be affected by the closure, adding that the reserves of NOC and Brega Oil Company will be enough for 21 days.
Calls for peaceful protest to end armed presence in Tripoli
By Houda Mzioudet and Sami Zaptia.
Tripoli, 13 November 2013:
A gathering of Tripoli locals is calling upon Tripoli residents to assemble after Friday prayer on 15 November in Abu Harida Square in front of Al Quds Mosque in central Tripoli to protest peacefully against armed groups present in the capital.
The protesters plan to head to the headquarters of armed groups in a peaceful and civilized manner to demand the implementation of GNC Law 27 (2013), which stipulates that all armed groups vacate Tripoli, LANA reports.
They will also be demanding the activation of the legitimacy of the state, represented by the official Libyan army and police.
Tripoli residents and locals had denounced last Thursday’s violent clashes between a group of thuwar (ex-fighters) from Suq il Juma and Misrata.
The clashes, on the central seafront strip of the capital, went on for over three hours and briefly, creating chaos and fear to local residence, resulting in two deaths and 29 injuries to the thuwar.
It will be recalled that Prime Minister Ali Zeidan, during his press conference on Sunday, called upon “Women, children, men and even old people should support the government and go to the oil ports and terminals to liberate them from the criminals and protects their only sustenance”.
Zeidan had felt that armed groups were unlikely to shoot at unarmed civilians.
It will be interesting to see if the general public do respond to Zeidan’s call in large numbers and do face-off with the armed groups.
“Fault is immaterial,” insisted State Dept spokeswoman Jen Psaki, who insisted the talks are simply a “complicated” issue that are going to take awhile to sort out.
“Yes, we can say no” was the theme of many of the banners, reflecting how controversial it is for modern Albania to even consider refusing a US proposal.
The plan had been raised before, but seems practical now as Kurdish militias have ousted al-Qaeda from much of their territory, and have virtually de facto control over the region.
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