Egypt - more foreign policy confusion.....
Just hours after State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf issued a public denial of the reports that this was coming, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki issued a statement confirming that the cuts will happen and will include large-scale weapons systems as well as cash subsidies to the junta.
State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf would say only that there was some “review” of aid to the post-coup government, but officials have been saying that for three solid months, since the Egyptian military ousted President Mohammed Mursi.
The package will offer specific limits on the number of centrifuges Iran’s civilian enrichment program will use, and will reportedly also offer to phase out 20 percent enrichment and allow additional inspections above and beyond the requirements under their safeguards agreement, in return for an easing of sanctions.
Israel is the only American ally to receive prior warning of this decision - and the only one to be briefed in detail of the understandings Washington has reached with Tehran, including Iran’s concessions on its nuclear program. Neither European, nor Persian Gulf leaders led by Saudi Arabia have been let in on the scale of reciprocal concessions approved by Obama and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
These concessions will start coming to light when they are put on the table of the nuclear negotiations beginning in Geneva on Oct. 15 between Iran and the P5+1 group (five Security Council permanent members and Germany).
A high-placed American source told DEBKAfile early Thursday: “The American-Iranian cake is already in the oven and half done.
In its next issue, out this coming Friday, DEBKA Weekly divulges in detail the content of the understandings reached between Washington and Tehran, how they were handled and the live wires acting as liaison in the secret exchanges. Exclusive articles will also discuss the strategic, political and military ramifications of the deals struck between Washington and Tehran.
The Syrian rebel forces clinging to small locations along the Israeli border are small and not expected to last long under a sizeable Syria military assault, one of whose objectives is undoubtedly to sever the links between rebel positions on the Golan and the IDF.
Until now, the Syrian high command held back from a military operation in this region for fear of drawing forth an Israeli or Jordanian counter-attack. However, after consenting to the disabling of its chemical weapons, the Assad regime feels confident that neither Israel nor Jordan will dare fight back.
Hours After Denial, US Cuts Egypt Military Aid
Will Withhold Heavy Weapons, Cash Pending Election 'Progress'
by Jason Ditz, October 09, 2013
A 24-hour span has seen reports, counterreports, denials, and counterdenials, but the Obama Administration has finally confirmed what was reported in the first place, that the US is going to significantly cut military aid to Egypt’s junta.
Just hours after State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf issued a public denial of the reports that this was coming, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki issued a statement confirming that the cuts will happen and will include large-scale weapons systems as well as cash subsidies to the junta.
Early estimates are the the cuts will amount to several hundred millions of dollars out of the $1.5 billion in annual tribute to the nation, and despite US law obliging a full cut in the event of a military takeover, most of the aid program will remain intact, including direct training aid for the nation’s military leadership.
Psaki’s statement says the cuts are temporary until the junta shows some “progress” toward credible elections, but since the junta has already banned the party that won the last election and arrested most of its leadership, it seems increasingly apparent that a vote, if indeed one happens at all, is going to be among a handful of pro-junta parties.
and......
White House: US Won’t End Military Aid to Egypt Junta
State Dept Insists Funding Junta Vital for 'Democratic Transition'
by Jason Ditz, October 09, 2013
The Obama Administration has followed up on several different media reports from Tuesday evening suggesting that a partial military aid cut to the Egyptian junta was either imminent or very close to settled on, insisting that the reports were simply “false.”
State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf would say only that there was some “review” of aid to the post-coup government, but officials have been saying that for three solid months, since the Egyptian military ousted President Mohammed Mursi.
She continued to push the repeated narrative of the administration that keeping funding for the junta (though flat out illegal under US law) is vital to retaining US influence over the military, and therefore vital to any future “democratic transition” that may or may not happen among the still not outlawed handful of junta-friendly political parties in Egypt.
The denial apparently came a bit late for some people, with Rep. Eliot Engel (D – NY)expressing disappointment with the now disavowed plan, saying bilateral relations with the junta need to be maintained at all cost.
The Israeli government also didn’t get the message, accusing the Obama Administration of violating the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty, which obliges the US to continue throwing billions in aid money at Egypt no matter who is in charge or what they’re doing. Israel has been heavily lobbying to keep aid for the junta flowing, and has openly argued that human rights violations (which is to say, wholesale massacres of pro-democracy protesters) are a secondary concern to “stability.”
Iran offer on nuclear program coming forward ..... Iran playing divide and conquer ?
Iran Will Offer to Limit Its Nuclear Program
Offer May Divide US From Rest of Negotiators
by Jason Ditz, October 08, 2013
According to Western officials familiar with the situation, Iran is expected to bring a package of serious proposals for a permanent settlement of the ongoing nuclear program dispute to the Geneva conference with the P5+1 next week.
The package will offer specific limits on the number of centrifuges Iran’s civilian enrichment program will use, and will reportedly also offer to phase out 20 percent enrichment and allow additional inspections above and beyond the requirements under their safeguards agreement, in return for an easing of sanctions.
The Iranian government has been winding down 20 percent enrichment at any rate, having made enough fuel rods for its aging US-built medical reactor for the rest of its life, and is more focused on ensuring a supply for its Bushehr power plant now, which runs on 3.5 percent enriched uranium. Weapons-grade uranium would need to be over 90 percent.
The offer may well split the P5+1 on the talks, with most of the nations likely to be in favor of an extremely reasonable Iranian offer and the US likely to be driven primarily by Israel’s opposition to any deal in general more inclined to counter with an “offer” for Iran to do all of this and more unilaterally without any real sanctions easing.
http://www.debka.com/article/23341/Exclusive-Obama-forewarns-Netanyahu-that-sanctions-against-Iran-will-soon-be-partially-lifted
President Barack Obama has notified Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that his administration will soon start the partial and gradual easing of economic sanctions against Iran, DEBKAfile reports exclusively from its Washington and Jerusalem sources. The reduction would apply to “non-significant” yet “substantial” sanctions, the message said.
Israel is the only American ally to receive prior warning of this decision - and the only one to be briefed in detail of the understandings Washington has reached with Tehran, including Iran’s concessions on its nuclear program. Neither European, nor Persian Gulf leaders led by Saudi Arabia have been let in on the scale of reciprocal concessions approved by Obama and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
These concessions will start coming to light when they are put on the table of the nuclear negotiations beginning in Geneva on Oct. 15 between Iran and the P5+1 group (five Security Council permanent members and Germany).
Meanwhile, high-ranking British, French and other European emissaries arrived in Jerusalem Thursday night. They said they were coming to discuss the latest developments on the Iranian question, but their real purpose was to discover the content of Obama’s message to the Israeli prime minister.
A high-placed American source told DEBKAfile early Thursday: “The American-Iranian cake is already in the oven and half done.
In its next issue, out this coming Friday, DEBKA Weekly divulges in detail the content of the understandings reached between Washington and Tehran, how they were handled and the live wires acting as liaison in the secret exchanges. Exclusive articles will also discuss the strategic, political and military ramifications of the deals struck between Washington and Tehran.
Neoconservatives Despair Over US-Iran Diplomacy
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Syria fading away from view ....
http://www.debka.com/article/23339/Syrian-tanks-lay-siege-to-key-rebel-held-town-athwart-Damascus-Golan-highway
Two Syrian armored brigades set out from Damascus Monday night, Oct. 7, to link up with forces already fighting in southern Syria to reach Quneitra opposite the Israeli Golan border. DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report long convoys of around 200 tanks, APCs, armored vehicles and self-propelled artillery are heading for an assembly-point south of the Daraa in the south.
Large Syrian forces tightened their siege through Tuesday night, Oct. 8, on the rebel-held town of Khan Arnabeh which is the key to controlling the main highway from the capital, Damascus Syrian Golan.The town is expected to fall within a short time. Its capture also provides the key to the central crossroads around the Golan town of Quneitra and will enable the Syria army to return to its former positions along the disengagement zone dividing the enclave between Syria and Israel, which is patrolled by UN peacekeepers.
The Syrian army is saturating Khan Arnabeh with concentrated fire from tanks, aircraft and self-propelled artillery. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that rebel resistance is light – and not only on the Golan. Western military sources report that the rebels are fighting half-heartedly in other battle sectors across Syria with little spirit to do more than hold their ground.
During the day, as the battles came closer to the Israeli border, the IDF ordered the crews working on the Golan security fence to leave the area for their own safety.
DEBKAfile reported Monday nigh that the Syrian air force bombarded rebel-held border villages to soften them up ahead of the offensive.
The size and movements of the advancing Syrian forces indicate that the regime in Damascus has determined to root out the rebel presence in all parts of Syrian border with Israel - from the Hermon Mts. in the north, down to the Syrian-Israel-Jordanian border junction opposite the southern Israeli Golan.
The main body is presently on the move in the area between the Yarmuk River which marks the Syrian Jordanian border and Quneitra.
The Syrian rebel forces clinging to small locations along the Israeli border are small and not expected to last long under a sizeable Syria military assault, one of whose objectives is undoubtedly to sever the links between rebel positions on the Golan and the IDF.
The only outward sign of those links is the regular transfer of injured rebels to Israeli hospitals for medical treatment - an estimated 200 have so far been treated.
Until now, the Syrian high command held back from a military operation in this region for fear of drawing forth an Israeli or Jordanian counter-attack. However, after consenting to the disabling of its chemical weapons, the Assad regime feels confident that neither Israel nor Jordan will dare fight back.
Syrian leaders gained an even greater sense of immunity from the rare words they head from US Secretary of State John Kerry Monday, commending them for allowing UN experts to dismantle the chemical production equipment and stocks, even though it suddenly turned out Sunday, Oct. 6 that the international OPCW experts had relegated the work to the Syrian army.
Jordan has responded to the heavy Syrian military movements in close proximity to its territory by putting on a state of preparedness the two army divisions, Nos. 60 and 40, which stand guard on its border with Syria.
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