Chaos and misreporting in Chaosistan ( aka D.C )
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/shots-fired-u-s-capitol-report-article-1.1475378
****
****
http://rt.com/usa/capitol-hill-shooting-updates-707/
( Another person with " mental issues " or just head trauma - note the pattern ? I guess we have to ask the question . How does a 34 year old dental hygienist living in Connecticut wind up in D.C and just go off for no apparent reason today ? )
****
and....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-03/capitol-shooting-full-developing-story
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/03/2013 15:32 -0400
But did she even try to ram the Gates ?
http://hotair.com/archives/2013/10/03/report-gunshots-outside-capitol/
http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-debt-ceiling-social-security-boehner-deadline-default-government-shutdown-2013-10
Early Thursday morning, Potomac Research Group analyst Greg Valliere predicted that if the debt-ceiling deadline grew closer, President Barack Obama would play his "trump card" in the debate. He would remind seniors that if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, seniors wouldn't get their Social Security checks.
http://hotair.com/archives/2013/10/03/cant-anyone-here-play-this-game/
Just wait until next week.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-03/cme-hikes-sp-500-dow-jones-nasdaq-e-mini-futures-9
( Setting up a market crash... margin hikes effective at close of business on 10 / 3 )
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/03/2013 07:15 -0400
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-03/third-day-shutdown-equity-futures-are-still-largely-unfazed-despite-obamas-warning
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/03/2013 07:06 -0400
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2013 20:26 -0400
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/shots-fired-u-s-capitol-report-article-1.1475378
****
There was horror on the Hill when a crazed Connecticut woman who tried to ram her way into the White House was shot and killed Thursday after she led police on a high-speed chase through the heart of Washington.
Two police officers were injured trying to stop Miriam Carey, but the year-old baby girl she had taken along on her death ride somehow survived, police said.
Now investigators are trying to determine why Carey, a 34-year-old dental hygienist from Stamford who once lived in Brooklyn, went on a tear.
ADVANCED PERIODONTICS OF HAMDEN
Miriam Carey, the woman shot outside the U.S. Capitol, pictured in the dental office where she worked in 2011.
BRIAN EVANS VIA FACEBOOOK
Dentist Brian Evans, former boss to Miriam Carey, says Carey "seemed happy" but "tended to go against the grain a bit."
Police were searching Carey's condominium building in Connecticut and ABC News reported the woman had a history of "mental health issues."
Carey's former boss, Dr. Brian Evans, told The Daily News that she “fell down some stairs and she had a pretty significant head injury” during the nearly two years she worked for him.
It was while Carey was in the hospital that she discovered she was pregnant and “she seemed happy,” Evans said.
But when they let Carey go last year, “it was nothing related to any mental problems that we were in tune to,” he said.
“There was never insubordination per se or anything like that,” said Evans, whose practice is in Hamden, Ct. “But she tended to go against the grain a bit.”
In the Bushwick section, Carey’s relatives huddled with a minister and refused to speak with reporters.
“She seemed like a nice young lady, stable,” said Brooklyn neighbor Jeff Newsome, 46, who recalled seeing Carey with a boyfriend whom he described as a “heavy-set guy in his 40s.”
“I’m shocked,” Newsome said. “I would have never, never thought that she would do something like this. I can't believe it.”
****
http://rt.com/usa/capitol-hill-shooting-updates-707/
( Another person with " mental issues " or just head trauma - note the pattern ? I guess we have to ask the question . How does a 34 year old dental hygienist living in Connecticut wind up in D.C and just go off for no apparent reason today ? )
Gunshots were fired outside the United States Capitol Building in Washington, DC on Thursday afternoon. The suspect was reportedly killed after a police chase, and other injuries have been reported.
22:55 GMT: NBC4 in Washington reports the driver has been identified by law enforcement as Miriam Carey.
22:28 GMT: Congressman Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, has told CNN that the female suspect, who is thought now to be a 34-year-old African American from Stamford, Conn., appeared to have a history of mental health issues.
22:11 GMT: At a 6:00 pm ET (22:00 GMT) press conference, officials confirmed the car chase suspect is dead and that a child, approximately a year-old, was recovered from the suspect’s vehicle. The female suspect attempted to “breach” an outer-perimeter checkpoint to the White House just prior to a pursuit by police.
DC Police Chief Lanier would not confirm details regarding the suspect’s identity, though stated that it did not “appear to be in any way an accident.”
22:03 GMT: Police have converged on an apartment complex in Stamford, Conn., in connection to the Capitol Hill vehicle pursuit and shooting. Though no information has so far been released about the female suspect’s identity vehicle plates appeared to correspond to those issued by Connecticut.
Witnesses at the scene reported police surrounding the condominium complex, including a bomb squad, with several news helicopters hovering above.
21:12 GMT: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tex.), who said he was briefed by the Department of Homeland Security, told the Associated Press the woman was killed and that he doesn’t “think she was” armed. “There was no return fire,” he said.
20:42 GMT: NBC News also reports the 34-year-old female suspect is dead, and that the car she drove had Connecticut license plates.
20:33 GMT: Suspect in Capitol Hill car chase which ended in a shooting is dead, confirms Fox News.
20:30 GMT: Roll Call reports the police officer injured in the vehicle pursuit of the suspect has been airlifted to an area hospital.
"Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Terrance Gainer confirmed that the Capitol Police officer does not appear to have life-threatening injuries. The D.C. Metropolitan Police Department has the lead on the investigation, in cooperation with the Capitol Police, the Secret Service and the Park Police. 'We’re just trying to get all the basic facts,' Gainer said."
Roll Call also reports the child in the car was uninjured.
"The child’s not injured. The child’s gone to the hospital,” Gainer said.
****
and....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-03/capitol-shooting-full-developing-story
Capitol Shooting - Full Developing Story
The situation in DC is fluid, but here is the most coherent narrative so far from NBC Washington DC:
A woman opened fire near the U.S. Capitol after trying to ram her car into the White House gates Thursday afternoon; she was then shot.A U.S. Capitol Police officer was injured in the event, though it is not clear that the officer was shot.The incident began at about 2:30 p.m. at the White House gates at 15th and E streets, NBC News confirmed. The driver tried to ram the gates but failed, and then was pursued by Secret Service.She bailed out of her car near the Capitol building and began shooting, NBC News' Pete Williams reported.Some reports said that as many as 10 to 15 rounds were fired. The injured officer was airlifted to an area hospital.The U.S. Capitol building was on lockdown after the shooting, though that lockdown has now been lifted. Parts of Pennsylvania Avenue are still closed.The House recessed, and the Senate went into a quorum call. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) said she was told to shelter-in-place. Pennsylvania Avenue is closed in the area, and tourists were evacuated.NBC News correspondent Luke Russert reported hearing three or four booms from his office and seeing 40-50 people hit the ground.
According to Fox reports the woman was 18 years old and there also a child in the car. The child is said to be unhurt.
This is Reuters' take:
The U.S. Capitol was locked down briefly on Thursday after gunshots were fired outside the building following a car chase across central Washington and a number of people including a law enforcement officer were hurt, officials said. A female suspect was killed by police at the scene, a U.S. official said.The shooting rattled the U.S. capital three weeks after 12 people were killed and three injured in a shooting spree by a government technology contractor at the U.S. Navy Yard, about 1.5 miles (2.4 km) from the Capitol.The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate were in session when the gunshots were heard. The U.S. government was partially shut down this week when lawmakers failed to agree on a budget.A source familiar with the situation said the incident started when a vehicle struck a security barrier at 15th and Pennsylvania avenue, near the White House. Police chased the vehicle for about 1 1/2 miles to 2nd Street and Constitution Avenue, near the Capitol, where the shots were fired."I was just eating a hot dog over here and I heard about four or five gunshots, and then a swarm of police cars came in wailing their sirens," said Whit Dabney, 13, who was visiting from Louisville, Kentucky, and heard the shots a couple of blocks away.A policeman was injured in a car crash resulting from the chase and was taken from the shooting scene in a Medevac helicopter, a U.S. official and police said.The lockdown order at the Capitol was called off and security along Independence Avenue was eased shortly before 3 p.m. (1900 GMT). Tourists were allowed back onto the Capitol grounds.Just before Capitol Police sealed off the building, the Senate and House were in session. On the Senate floor, Senator John McCain of Arizona was urging that President Barack Obama and a bipartisan group of senators launch negotiations to break the deadlock over government funding and a debt limit increase.The House had just passed a bill to fund the National Guard and reservists who are not on active duty during the shutdown.
More reports from Reuters:
- Rescue personnel stand around a smashed U.S. Capitol Police car following a shooting near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, October 3, 2013.
- Reuters Wire: U.S. official says that a female suspect in the U.S. Capitol shooting killed by police. The female suspect first tried to ram through White House security barricades. Police say they believe a child was in the car pursued in the Capitol shooting.
Reuters' Mark Hosenball reports: "Further to this point, a U.S. official said there is at present no indication of any connection to terrorism, though this information is only preliminary." - Reuters' Thomas Ferraro reports a message verbatim from U.S. Capitol Police to Congressional personnel: “The incident involving gunshots fired on the Senate side of the Congressional Complex appears to be an isolated event and there is no current threat to the Senate community. U.S. Capitol Police and the Senate Sergeant at Arms staff are continuing to monitor the situation and will provide further updates as necessary.”
- Reuters' Mark Hosenball reports from a source: The person involved in the incident was a woman. Initial reporting inside the government indicates that she tried to crash through barricades and get into White House complex. She then fled down Pennsylvania Ave in a car. She crashed by the Capitol. She was shot and killed by Capitol Police. One policeman was injured in the car crash, not by shooting. First responders were attending to her when she died.
But did she even try to ram the Gates ?
http://hotair.com/archives/2013/10/03/report-gunshots-outside-capitol/
Report: Gunshots outside Capitol? Update: All from police? Update: Video added
POSTED AT 2:28 PM ON OCTOBER 3, 2013 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
No idea what’s happened, but the Capitol is being locked down. Per NRO’s Robert Costa, members of Congress were outside at the time but no word yet on whether anyone’s hurt. Stand by for updates.
According to the 
Clapper told the panel that the shutdown had
http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-debt-ceiling-social-security-boehner-deadline-default-government-shutdown-2013-10
Early Thursday morning, Potomac Research Group analyst Greg Valliere predicted that if the debt-ceiling deadline grew closer, President Barack Obama would play his "trump card" in the debate. He would remind seniors that if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, seniors wouldn't get their Social Security checks.
"GOP strategists like Karl Rove surely know that it's just a matter of time before President Obama throws a game-changer — warning senior citizens that their Social Security checks won't be mailed because of John Boehner," Valliere wrote in a note to clients.
A few hours later, Obama did just that during a speech at M. Luis Construction Company in Rockville, Md. He spent much of the speech warning that while the ongoing government shutdown was damaging, failure to raise the debt ceiling by an Oct. 17 deadline would be even worse.
"In a government shutdown, Social Security checks still go out on time. In an economic shutdown — if we don't raise the debt ceiling — they don't go out on time," Obama said. "In a government shutdown, disability benefits still arrive on time. In an economic shutdown, they don't."
Earlier on Thursday, the Treasury Department warned in a big report that breaching the debt ceiling could inflict economic calamity "more severe than any seen since the Great Depression."
"The United States has never defaulted on its obligations, and the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities are at the center of the international financial system," the report said.
"A default would be unprecedented and has the potential to be catastrophic: credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, U.S. interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse."
The Treasury says that the debt ceiling needs to be raised by Oct. 17 to avoid potential default on some U.S. obligations. After that date, the Treasury would have only approximately $30 billion to meet all of its commitments. On some days, expenditures can go as high as $60 billion.
Obama says that he won't negotiate over raising the debt ceiling, calling it Congress' responsibility. House Republicans, meanwhile, have looked to extract some kind of concession out of Obama in exchange for a debt-ceiling hike.
GOP Plan Cor D at this point ?
GOP Plan Cor D at this point ?
http://hotair.com/archives/2013/10/03/cant-anyone-here-play-this-game/
House GOP looking for a “hail Mary”?
POSTED AT 12:01 PM ON OCTOBER 3, 2013 BY ED MORRISSEY
“Can’t anyone here play this game?” That’s an old Casey Stengel quote, and it’s the theme ofmy column today at The Fiscal Times, too. Republicans have more or less put themselves in a cul-de-sac with the budget showdown over ObamaCare, especially now that it has rolled out, and stepped on the news cycle that could have been the best day ever for opponents of the ACA. Fortunately for Republicans, that gift will keep on giving, as reports from the state make very clear, and we will no doubt have plenty of opportunities to underscore that message as the weeks roll along.
For Democrats, though, a shutdown should also have been a golden opportunity. The White House has significant control over which functions get funded and which don’t, while the Senate could have kept pressure on by responding to individual crises and highlighting them for maximum public-relations effect. Instead, Harry Reid boots a question in a press conference that loses him at least one news cycle, while the White House and Barack Obama managed to do even worse over the first two days of shutdown, and even before it:
What did Barack Obama and his allies do? Obama claimed that Republican demands for negotiations on the debt ceiling amounted to “extortion” – despite the fact that Obama voted to oppose such an increase in 2006 as Senator. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid refused to negotiate at all on continuing resolutions passed by the House, insisting that Republicans were holding “a gun to our head.”Obama communications adviser Dan Pfeiffer – who should be helping to craft a strategic message to raise his boss’ leadership profile – compared House Republicans to terrorists on CNN’s The Lead, telling Jake Tapper, “What we’re not for is negotiating with people with a bomb strapped to their chest.” This came, it should be noted, on the same day in which Pfeiffer’s boss called Iranian president Hassan Rouhani to negotiate on nuclear weapons. The State Department considers Iran one of the chief state sponsors of terrorists. …The first day of the shutdown, though, the National Parks Service tried closing the memorial down to a group of World War II veterans who had traveled to Washington to see it, claiming that the shutdown cut off access to it. Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-MS), who accompanied the veterans, asked the White House to back off, only to get the brush-off himself. Instead, Palazzo took down the barricade himself to give the veterans access to the memorial honoring their own service in a park that is open to everyone anyway.Did the White House learn a lesson from this PR debacle? Apparently not. As Elizabeth Scalia points out, the President could have met veterans at the memorial the next day to express his appreciation for their service and toured the memorial with them. That would have given Obama some much-needed positive coverage and an opportunity to pressure Republicans into retreat without having to enter negotiations himself.Instead, the National Parks Service spent Day 2 of its supposed shutdown by hoisting more barricades with forklifts to surround the memorial before more octogenarian and nonagenarian veterans could arrive. That took seven NPS security personnel, which Washington Examiner reporter Charlie Spiering noted was two more people than the Obama administration committed to security for the consulate in Benghazi a year ago.
Some Republican critics of the shutdown strategy based their opposition on an assumption that Obama would be at least politically competent, and would know enough to follow Bill Clinton’s playbook. Clinton would never have allowed the opportunity to assist the World War II veterans slip through his fingers, and he would have made sure that White House press corps personnel followed him every step of the way through the memorial — and probably back to the White House to give the Greatest Generation a personal tour there, too, just to remind the media that tours have otherwise been shut down by the sequester. Could anyone have predicted just how much Obama and the Democrats would have helped the GOP in the first few days of the shutdown?
Unfortunately for those furloughed, that gives Republicans less incentive to give up and vote on a clean CR, at least before the debt-ceiling expiration looms. Byron York reports thatHouse Republican leadership has run out of plays, but that may not concern them as much as it did a couple of days ago:
Wednesday was the best day in a while for Republicans, but not because of any progress they made toward their goal of defunding, delaying, or limiting Obamacare as part of a resolution to fund the government. Rather, Wednesday was a good day because Democrats handled their end of the crisis so badly. First, the Obama administration inexplicably went out of its way to barricade popular open-air monuments and memorials on the Washington DC mall, in particular closing off the World War II memorial to groups of elderly, Greatest Generation veterans who had come to the capital to pay their respects to a heroic moment in American history. Republicans couldn’t believe what they were seeing. “That looked atrocious,” said one well-connected GOP strategist, who suggested it proved once and for all that the ham-handed Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton when it comes to handling a government shutdown. …So what now? House Speaker John Boehner and leading Republicans like Paul Ryan and Dave Camp are apparently reviving the old goal of a “grand bargain” — a budget deal that would include entitlement reforms, tax reform, and a new budget agreement, while also restoring government spending and raising the debt ceiling. The idea is that with the debt ceiling deadline coming up on Oct. 17, Republicans and Democrats could fix all, or at least many, of their problems in one fell swoop.Such “grand bargain” attempts have failed in the past, and there is little reason to believe one will succeed now. And not just because Obama and Democrats are intransigent, which they are. The fact is, this is Oct. 3, meaning there are just two weeks before the nation hits the debt ceiling. Could Republicans get even their end of a “grand bargain” together in time? “Look at tax reform,” said the GOP strategist. “If you took Democrats out of the mix entirely, I don’t think Republicans could come up with a tax reform package by Oct. 17. There is a huge range of opinion on what direction to take.” The first “grand bargain” Republicans would have to reach would be among themselves.
The GOP probably can’t count on Obama being the gift that keeps on giving for another two weeks, but don’t expect anything to budge until Republicans actually lose a news cycle. That may not be soon, if the odd presidential meeting to say nothing new last night is any indication.
Just wait until next week.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-03/cme-hikes-sp-500-dow-jones-nasdaq-e-mini-futures-9
( Setting up a market crash... margin hikes effective at close of business on 10 / 3 )
CME Hikes S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq E-Mini Margins By 9%
Remember when the CME and the administration punished speculative gold longs in 2011, and crude longs in 2012 by hiking or warning to hike margins beyond the breaking point for levered holders of futures contracts? It works for stocks as well. Last night, the CME may have taken Obama's warning to the market a little too seriously, and announced a hike in the core E-Mini futures contracts of about 9% across the board for initial and maintenance margin requirements. Has Obama officially launched a war on Wall Street until it plunges to prove to Republicans just how serious "all this" is?
Source: CME
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-03/third-day-shutdown-equity-futures-are-still-largely-unfazed-despite-obamas-warning
On The Third Day Of Shutdown, Equity Futures Are Still Largely Unfazed Despite Obama's Warning
- Bank of England
- Bank of Japan
- BOE
- Brazil
- British Pound
- China
- Citigroup
- Copper
- Crude
- Debt Ceiling
- European Central Bank
- Eurozone
- Fisher
- fixed
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Investment Grade
- Italy
- Japan
- LTRO
- Nikkei
- Nomura
- Obamacare
- RANSquawk
- Rating Agencies
- recovery
- United Kingdom
Despite the president's tongue-in-cheek warning to Wall Street that this time it's different, and it that "it should be concerned", that same Wall Street continues to roundly mock his attempts to talk it lower on the third day of America's "shutdown", knowing very well that if things ever turn bad, Mr. Chairman, aka the S&P chief risk officer, will get to work, and rescue everyone from that pesky thing known as losses. Whether the offsetting optimism was driven by made up China non-manufacturing PMI rising from 53.9 to 55.4, the highest in six months, or just as made up non-core European PMI data which also beat expectations despite Germany Services PMI continuing to telegraph a weakness, dropping from 54.4 to 53.7, is unknown and once again not important. So while futures are modestly lower if only until such time as the daily 3:58pm VIX slam takes place just before market close, do not expect any major moves in stocks until either the GOP finally folds and lets Obama have his way, or bundles all shutdown legislation into the debt ceiling negotiation, and careens the US right into the debt ceiling deadline on October 17 without any legislation in place.
The Labor Department will likely release initial jobless claims today for the week ending September 28th despite the shutdown. Dont expect a surge in the print as it cover a period come efore any insurance eligible workers were given a pink slip. US factory orders won't be released now because of the shutdown but the ISM non-manufacturing survey will also be a major focus as will any developments in Washington DC. The Fed’s Fisher, Powell, Williams and Lockhart are also scheduled to speak.
Market summary from RanSquawk:
European equities trade flat despite opening higher in response to the stronger than expected Chinese Services PMI data released overnight. The SMI is the leading index benefitting from the outperformance of the healthcare sector, illustrating how sentiment has turned risk averse over the course of the morning amid hawkish comments from ECB’s Noyer, who described a potential a new LTRO as unnecessary and German services PMI being weaker than expected. PMIs from the Eurozone and Italy were however expectation beating with the latter posting the highest reading in more than 2 years.
It has also been an eventful morning in terms of fixed income with auctions from Spanish treasury demonstrating strong demand, especially for the 10y line which was sold at its lowest yield since September 2010. The UK also saw a strong auction as the bid to cover was significantly higher, which as noted by Citigroup analysts was supported by today’s APF buyback from the BoE. France’s auction went less well with bid to covers weaker for both the ’23 and ’29 offerings, suffering from competing supply from the UK and Germany this week. Looking ahead markets will focus on the release of tier one US data in the form of Durable Goods Orders.
Overnight news bulletin via BBG and Ran
- US government shutdown continues with Fed's Rosengren noting that a the possible disruption to reliable government statistics could further delay a QE taper.
- ECB's Noyer says does not consider that a new long term liquidity operation is currently necessary.
- Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) M/M 55.4 (Prev. 53.9)
- Treasuries decline as House Speaker Boehner said Obama refused to negotiate in a meeting with top congressional leaders about the government shutdown, signaling a lack of progress on resolving the fiscal impasse.
House Republican leaders plan to bring up a measure to raise the debt limit as soon as next week as part of a new attempt to force Obama to negotiate, according to three people with knowledge of the strategy - Draghi has asked a ECB panel to study options for new bank funding measures, as policy makers try to figure out how to deal with any future liquidity shortages, two euro-region central bank officials said
- The Bank of Japan will wait at least until 2Q 2014 before deciding whether to add more stimulus, as it gauges the impact of an April sales-tax increase, said Atsushi Mizuno, a former BOJ board member
- Sovereign yields mostly higher, peripherals spreads tighter. Nikkei little changed; China markets lead gains in Asia. European stocks mostly lower, S&P 500 futures fall. WTI crude, copper and gold lower
Asian Headlines
Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) M/M 55.4 (Prev. 53.9)
Former BoJ board member Mizuno says BoJ on hold until at least Q2 and that BoJ needs time to judge if more easing needed after tax.
Former BoJ board member Mizuno says BoJ on hold until at least Q2 and that BoJ needs time to judge if more easing needed after tax.
EU & UK Headlines
UK Services PMI (Sep) M/M 60.3 vs. Exp. 60.0 (Prev. 60.5)
Eurozone Retail Sales (Aug) M/M 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev. 0.5%)
German Services PMI (Sep F) M/M 53.7 vs. Exp. 54.4 (Prev. 54.4)
French Services PMI (Sep F) M/M 51.0 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.7)
Italian Services PMI (Sep) M/M 52.7 vs. Exp. 49.1 (Prev. 48.8) - first rise in business activity in 28 months
Eurozone Retail Sales (Aug) M/M 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev. 0.5%)
German Services PMI (Sep F) M/M 53.7 vs. Exp. 54.4 (Prev. 54.4)
French Services PMI (Sep F) M/M 51.0 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.7)
Italian Services PMI (Sep) M/M 52.7 vs. Exp. 49.1 (Prev. 48.8) - first rise in business activity in 28 months
Moody's said Italy's political instability is credit negative and that the situation is credit negative even after vote of confidence.
ECB's Noyer says does not consider that a new long term liquidity operation is currently necessary.
The Troika left Greece with 6 things they need to take action on before the next visit which include: draft the 2014 budget, and revise its midterm fiscal plan to determine the size of the fiscal gap by 2017.
UK DMO sells GBP 4bln 2.25% 2023, b/c 1.84 (Prev. 1.59) and tail 0.2bps (Prev. 0.4bps).
Fixed income supply Europe saw mixed demand with the Spanish 2018 and 2023 auctions being well received; the 10 year the lowest yield since Sep 2010. France however had saw weaker demand for both lines sold today.
US Headlines
Fed's Rosengren said that a prolonged shutdown and possible disruption to reliable government statistics could further delay a QE taper.
Equities
European equities trade flat with Telecommunications and healthcare sectors the best performing. Risk appetite has been dented by hawkish comments from Noyer, who described a new LTRO as unnecessary and caused a pull back from the gains seen in early trade as European participants responded to stronger than expected Chinese PMI. Telecommunications remain in the green benefitting from positive news for related companies in Europe and Asia.
Telecom Italia trade higher as the board meet today to discuss potential rights issue or sale of the Brazil unit. In Japan Softbank moved above MUFG to become the 2nd largest company in the Nikkei by market cap and resulted in the Telecoms sector outperforming the rest of that bourse by 3%.
FX
The USD index trades negatively despite USD/JPY trading higher and GBP/USD remaining flat as the EUR sees upside as a result of hawkish comments from the ECB's Noyer, who said he considered a new LTRO unnecessary. EUR/USD continues to approach highs seen at the beginning of the year. Amid the EUR strength GBP/EUR approached but failed to break its 21DMA to the downside.
Commodities
Analysts at Nomura maintained iron ore price forecasts at USD 130/t for 2013E, USD 115/t for 2014E and USD 100/t for 2015E.
Analysts at Macquarie note that China's gold demand "seems to be less positive", citing declining Shanghai premiums even though prices declined.
Analysts at Macquarie note that China's gold demand "seems to be less positive", citing declining Shanghai premiums even though prices declined.
* * *
In conclusion, here is DB's overnight recap via Jim Reid
The US government enters the third day of its shutdown today, and it’s now increasingly likely that the continuing resolution debate will be folded into the fast-approaching debt ceiling discussion. Indeed, House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy joined other members of congress yesterday in calling for a “one and done” agreement to simultaneously lift the debt ceiling and end the shutdown. If that occurs, it’s likely that Obamacare will be added to the debate on social security and tax reform, amongst other contentious issues, increasing the already massive stakes of the debt limit discussion. Bloomberg is reporting that House Republicans are planning to bring up a plan sometime next week, to tie spending cuts and changes to Obamacare to a bill addressing the CR and the debt ceiling.
Meanwhile, New York Republican Peter King repeated his call for House Republicans to relent on their opposition to a clean CR. King said he met with nine or 10 like-minded Republicans who want a chance to vote on a clean bill. King was the sole Republican to vote with Democrats against his party’s leadership against the rule to allow House consideration of five piecemeal spending bills (Bloomberg). Obama joined Congressional leaders in a one-and-a-half-hour meeting late on Wednesday that Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell described as “cordial but unproductive”.
Despite the fact that the shutdown looks increasingly likely to move past the weekend, overnight markets are trading with a generally firmer tone. Asian equities are seeing gains, but in a similar vein to yesterday, S&P 500 futures are trading lower (-0.1%) despite the gains elsewhere overnight. There was a small bounce in risk when the latest official Chinese non-manufacturing PMI came in at six-month high of 55.4. The September reading is a 0.5pt improvement to the previous month’s 53.9. The Hang Seng (+0.97%), KOSPI (+0.1%) and ASX200 (+0.6%) are all trading firmer, led by resources and mining stocks. USDJPY is trading about 0.3% higher as the Bank of Japan starts its two-day policy meeting today, and the USD index (-0.11%) is poised to close down for the fifth consecutive day. In the Philippines, the Peso is 0.6% stronger against the USD and bonds are 0.5pts higher, following Moody’s upgrade of the sovereign to investment grade. Moody’s is the last of the major rating agencies to upgrade to investment grade.
Even with the congressional debate continuing yesterday, the S&P500 managed to claw back its opening losses of -0.86% to close just 0.07% lower on the day. Oil & gas (+0.25%) and mining companies (+1.3%) led the intraday recovery helped by a +2.2% and +1.1% rally in gold and crude prices. The US ADP employment report came in weaker than expected at 166k (vs 180k expected) and August was revised down to +159k from +176k as initially reported. DB’s Lavorgna believes that the September ADP is consistent with a nonfarm payroll projection of 170k, but we are still unsure as to when that number will eventually be reported. 10yr UST yields rallied 3bp off the back of the data, and amid the ongoing political deadlock on Capitol Hill a number of forecasters pushed out their time horizon for Fed tapering. This is perhaps helping to keep markets relatively calm about the shutdown.
In Italy, BTPs firmed another 5bp after the splintering of the PDL party handed PM Letta a comfortable win in the Senate confidence vote (235 yes vs 70 no). Facing a revolt in his own party, ex-PM Berlusconi was forced to cast his vote in favour of Letta, but it was clear that Letta would have won the vote even without Berlusconi’s support. Interestingly, an opinion poll by the Ipsos Institute conducted before the vote showed 61% of PDL voters felt the party should back Letta and 51% said that the party should pick a new leader to take over from Berlusconi. DB’s Marco Stringa believes that Letta’s government is now less fragile and should be better able to withstand future political reverberations, such as Berlusconi’s potential expulsion from the senate. Recall that the Senate Committee will probably vote in favour of Berlusconi’s expulsion from the Senate on 4 Oct. – a decision that will have to be confirmed by the whole Senate around 20 Oct. The longer term impact depends on whether PDL members reunite behind their historical leader, or if there is a hawk-dove split.
Quickly reviewing the ECB decision, the central bank did not change policy, as was largely expected. Draghi’s press conference comments were incrementally more dovish compared to previous months. He characterised the recovery as "weak, fragile and uneven". There was no real indication that another LTRO was imminent, which when combined with his statement that "the exchange rate is not a policy target for the ECB”, caused the euro to jump 0.4%. In Asian trading, EURUSD (1.360 or +0.2%) is testing the highs last reached in February.
Turning to the day ahead, in Europe service sector PMIs for the Euroarea, Italy and Spain are due today. Across the Atlantic, the Labor Department will release initial jobless claims today for the week ending September 28th. US factory orders won't be released now because of the shutdown but the ISM non-manufacturing survey will also be a major focus as will any developments in Washington DC. The Fed’s Fisher, Powell, Williams and Lockhart are also scheduled to speak.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-02/house-republicans-plan-link-debt-limit-and-shutdown-one-fiscal-fight
House Republicans Plan To Link Debt-Limit And Shutdown Into One Fiscal Fight
Nancy Pelosi tried hard this evening (in the post WH meeting presser) to position the Democrats in order to disavow the inevitable but now Bloomberg is reporting that:
- *HOUSE REPUBLICAN PLAN WOULD LINK SHUTDOWN, DEBT-LIMIT FIGHTS
House Republican leaders plan to bring up a measure to raise the U.S. debt-limit as soon as next week as part of a new attempt to force President Barack Obama to negotiate on the budget by merging the disputes over ending the government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling into one fiscal fight. This is not what most sell-side strategists expected as a base-case; in fact it is close to a worst-case for many - especially given Obama's apparent unwillingness to negotiate.
Via Bloomberg,
House Republican leaders plan to bring up a measure to raise the U.S. debt-limit as soon as next week as part of a new attempt to force President Barack Obama to negotiate on the budget, according to three people with knowledge of the strategy.The approach would merge the disputes over ending the government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling into one fiscal fight.“I’d like to get one agreement and be done,” House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy told reporters today without offering details.Republican leaders are attempting to pair their party’s priorities with a debt-limit increase, a plan they shelved last month to focus on a stopgap measure to fund the government in the new fiscal year.The goal is to have a bill ready in coming days, even without resolving the partial government shutdown, according to a Republican lawmaker and two leadership aides who asked not to be identified to discuss the strategy.
So... uh...
The President made clear to the Leaders that he is not going to negotiate over the need for Congress to act to reopen the government."But the Republicans plan to link the debt ceiling to the re-opening of government...
It seems - as President Obama warned - this time is different (no matter how much the Fed tries to do, we suspect the politicians 'need' a crash to get something done)...
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